Wednesday, May 22, 2019

Crude Oil, Hot Stocks, and Currencies – Markets III / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Chris_Vermeulen

In our continued effort to help skilled traders/investors understand the future risks associated with geopolitical market turmoil, the EU Elections next week and the continued US/China trade war, this Part III of our Sector Rotation article will highlight certain sectors that we believe may continue to perform over the next 12 to 24+ months and help traders/investors survive any extended price volatility/rotation over that same time. Read Part I, and Part II.

Currently, the US stock market has weathered a bit of a jolt in terms of price rotation.  After many stock indexes reached new all-time highs, the news of Iran Oil Sanctions, US/China trade talks failing and the political turmoil in DC as an incredible 2020 US Presidential election cycle heats up, investors are watching the markets for any signs of strength or weakness.  Meanwhile, the US Dollar continues to strengthen against other global currencies in an incredible show of “King Dollar” strength and dominance.  All of this plays into one of our favorite narratives that we started discussing over 30 months ago – the Global Capital Shift.

Wednesday, May 22, 2019

The No.1 Energy Stock for 2019 / Companies / Solar Energy

By: OilPrice_Com

Wednesday, May 22, 2019

Brexit Party and Lib-Dems Pull Further Away from Labour and Tories in Latest Opinion Polls / ElectionOracle / BrExit

By: N_Walayat

The latest european election polls have the Brexit Party and Lib Dems further pulling away from the Tories and Labour party. The polls were conducted by Yougov between 19th May and 21st of May.

The BrExit party continues to extend it's huge lead over the other parties by gaining 3% on the week to 37%.

Lib Dems widen their 2nd place position by gaining 2% at the expense of Labour that falls 2% to just 13%.

Tuesday, May 21, 2019

The Deep State vs Donald Trump - US vs Them Part 2 / Politics / US Politics

By: James_Quinn

In Part I of this article I discussed why the “Us versus Them” mindset permeates society and how Trump has become a lightning rod for hate. Now I will assess his progress in fighting the Deep State and try to peer into a murky future.

In addition to not being Hillary, the main reasons I voted for Trump was he promised to build the wall, he promised to repeal and replace Obamacare, he promised to end our foreign military interventions, he said he would bring fiscal sanity to the budget, he said the Federal Reserve had blown an immense stock market bubble, he questioned the fake economic data spouted by government drones, and he called out the fake news bullshit media. When I regularly assess his progress on these issues, the standard response from Trump acolytes is “Would you rather have Hillary?”. No, I would not. But that doesn’t get Trump off the hook for his failures in my book.

Tuesday, May 21, 2019

Deep State & Financial Powers Worry about Alternative Currencies / Stock-Markets / BlockChain

By: Axel_Merk

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason. Later in today’s program we’ll hear from Axel Merk of Merk Investments. Axel breaks down the trade war with China and gives us some keen insights on the likely strategy being employed by President Donald Trump there, and also tells us why he sees inflationary pressures returning in the economy and the affects it will have on gold prices. Don’t miss another wonderful interview with the highly respected Axel Merk, coming up after this week’s market update.

As markets continue to gyrate on global trade and tariff threats, precious metals are struggling to capture investor interest.

Lately, the big push in alternative assets has been in Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency has doubled in price over the past two months, though it remains well below its old high.

Gold was the sole metal to show strength amidst the recent selloff in stocks. However, its momentum petered out mid week and turned lower on Thursday. As of this Friday recording, gold prices are down 0.8% for the week to trade at $1,277 an ounce.

Tuesday, May 21, 2019

Gold’s Exciting Boredom / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: P_Radomski_CFA

The last few trading days in gold were quite interesting, but overall gold has been a quite boring market in the last couple of months. Gold’s volatility index dropped to new lows as the current back and forth movement is just a small part of the same kind of movement on a broader scale. It’s more of the same. And when gold’s volatility gets very low, interesting things tend to happen next over 80% of the time. In other words, the situation in gold is now so boring that it’s a signal on its own. In today’s analysis, we’ll dig into details.

It’s time for gold’s boring, yet effective signal.

Tuesday, May 21, 2019

Trade War Fears Again, Will Stocks Resume the Downtrend? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Paul_Rejczak

Stocks retraced some of their short-term rebound on Friday, as investors’ sentiment worsened once again. The S&P 500 index bounced off the nearest important resistance level of around 2,890-2,900. Will stocks resume their downtrend?

The U.S. stock market indexes lost 0.4-1.0% on Friday, retracing some of their recent advance, as investors’ sentiment worsened again. On Monday a week ago the S&P 500 index fell the lowest since late March, and it got very close to the 2,800 mark (daily low at 2,801.43). Then it rebounded to the resistance level of around 2,890-2,900. It currently trades 3.2% below its May the 1st record high of 2,954.13. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.4% and the Nasdaq Composite lost 1.0% on Friday.

The nearest important resistance level of the S&P 500 index remains at 2,880-2,900, marked by the previous support level. The resistance level is also at 2,920-2,930. On the other hand, the support level is at 2,850. The support level is also at around 2,800-2,820, marked by the recent local lows.

Tuesday, May 21, 2019

Buffett Mistake Costs Him $4.3 Billion This Year—Here’s What Every Investor Can Learn from It / Companies / Investing 2019

By: Robert_Ross

Even the best investors have bad days.

Warren Buffett is no exception. In February, he watched one of his biggest acquisitions quickly sour.

I’m talking about Kraft Heinz, an American food giant that makes everything from ketchup to Oscar Mayer hot dogs to Kool-Aid.

The stock plunged 30% in one day after it announced a 36% dividend cut and never recovered:

Monday, May 20, 2019

Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2019 May Update - Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2019 May Update - My in-depth analysis first made avilable to patrons who support my work on the of 1st March 2019 Stock Market Trend Forecast March to September 2019 concluded in the trend forecast for the Dow to achieve at least 28,000 by Mid September 2019.

Monday, May 20, 2019

A Brief History of Financial Entropy / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Michael_Pento

The global economy began an experiment with fiscal and monetary alchemy when it exited the gold standard almost 50 years ago.
In 1971 the USD completely separated from the last vestiges of its tether to gold. In effect, it released the worldwide monetary system from any limitations of base money growth, as it was no longer pegged to the increase in the mine supply of gold. This is because the USD was once linked to gold and the rest of the developed world linked their currencies to the dollar. This was the case ever since The Bretton Woods agreement of 1944.

Therefore, when the U.S. severed the link to gold, the world entered into its doomed experiment with global fiat currencies and began its journey down the road to financial entropy.

Monday, May 20, 2019

Gold, MMT, Fiat Money Inflation In France / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Kelsey_Williams

“Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) is a heterodox macroeconomic framework that says monetarily sovereign countries like the U.S., U.K., Japan and Canada are not operationally constrained by revenues when it comes to federal government spending. In other words, such governments do not need taxes or borrowing for spending since they can print as much as they need and are the monopoly issuers of the currency.”  Investopedia

Of course governments are not ‘constrained’ by revenues. They have always been able to “print as much as they need”.

Modern Monetary Theory is not ‘modern’. Far from it. 

In the late eighteenth century, France was deeply in debt. A general lack of capital and confidence had taken its toll and the economy was lacking in signs of activity. Growth was stagnant.

The conditions were such that it would be reasonable to expect a return to better times without interference by government. Unfortunately, that would require patience and restraint by the politicians. Most politicians cannot resist the cries of “do something”. Even if the cries are non-existent, the government will hear them.

Monday, May 20, 2019

Not Maxing Out Your 401(k) or IRA Contributions Is Stupid / Personal_Finance / Pensions & Retirement

By: Jared_Dillian

Uncle Sam doesn’t give out too many freebies when it comes to tax time, except in the form of retirement plans.

Surprisingly, not many people take advantage of them. Only 41% of people contribute to a 401(k) when they have the option to do so.

A 401(k) allows annual contributions up to $19,000. If you maxed out your contributions, you could save thousands of dollars on your taxes.

Why do more people not contribute?

Monday, May 20, 2019

WAR - Us versus Them Narrative / Politics / US Military

By: James_Quinn

“I’ll show you politics in America. Here it is, right here. “I think the puppet on the right shares my beliefs.” “I think the puppet on the left is more to my liking.” “Hey, wait a minute, there’s one guy holding out both puppets!”” – Bill Hicks

Anyone who frequents Twitter, Facebook, political blogs, economic blogs, or fakes news mainstream media channels knows our world is driven by the “Us versus Them” narrative. It’s almost as if “they” are forcing us to choose sides and believe the other side is evil. Bill Hicks died in 1994, but his above quote is truer today then it was then. As the American Empire continues its long-term decline, the proles are manipulated through Bernaysian propaganda techniques, honed over the course of decades by the ruling oligarchs, to root for their assigned puppets.

Monday, May 20, 2019

Are You Being Tossed Around By The China News? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Avi_Gilburt

As I watched and traded the market action over the last several weeks, I witnessed something quite amazing. Yet, this was not the first time I have seen this.

Each time the market was set up for a smaller change of directional move, a news event or a “tweet” seemed to have come out at almost the exact time we need to see the market change direction.

While many saw the news as affecting the market direction, I saw the news as fitting into the market cycle.

I guess it is a matter of perspective, right?

Well, I am quite certain that many of you are thinking to yourself – “boy, that Avi is really foolish. It was clearer than the nose on my face that the negative China news caused the market to drop, whereas seemingly good China news caused the market to then rally.” And, if one takes a very superficial view of the market, one may come to that conclusion. However, I am attempting to open your minds to a much more mature and accurate perspective on how to view markets.

Monday, May 20, 2019

US - Iran War Safe-haven Reasons to Own Gold / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: Richard_Mills

“It’s the tail that wags the dog” is defined by Urban Dictionary as a way of persuading a large group of people. The phrase is usually employed in a situation wherein a cause that expects to elicit a certain effect, is in fact reversed.

The 1997 film ‘Wag the Dog’ is about a powerful political strategist who tries to get a fictional president on board with a PR campaign involving the US invasion of Albania, a tiny country in eastern Europe, in order to divert attention from a scandal at home just two weeks before an election.

Of course, you don’t need to watch a movie to know this. There are plenty of real-life examples of presidents who used foreign invasions, coups, wars, etc. to demonstrate strong leadership and thereby shore up faltering popularity at home.

Monday, May 20, 2019

How long does Google have to reference a website? / Companies / Google

By: Sumeet_Manhas

How long does it take before a site is properly referenced on Google? Are you thinking about submitting websites to Google? Indexing new sites is a real challenge of patience. In fact, Google’s algorithms take into account over 200 factors when indexing a page. What’s more, many webmasters don’t know how to reference their websites on search engines. In this article, I’ll show you what you need to do to be indexed. There are lots of myths and outdated information revolving around SEO, because everyone wants to be at the top of the results. I’ll break those and tell you the truth. Hopefully, this information will even save you money.

Sunday, May 19, 2019

Tory Leadership Contest - Will Michael Gove Stab Boris Johnson in the Back Again? / Politics / UK Politics

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The days of Britian's worst Prime Minister in history, Theresa Mays are numbered, so there is going to be another Tory leadership contest near 3 years on from the last when David Cameron quit after losing the EU Referendum, and Boris Johnson has been quick off the mark to throw his hat into the ring. Though I hope he has learned his lesson NOT to trust fellow tories such as the likes of Michael Gove who like a character out of Game of Thrones (Little Finger) stabbed Boris in the back on the day he was supposed to announce his candidature with Gove at the helm of his campaign, instead Gove announced a few hours earlier that he, himself would be standing for Tory leader!

Sunday, May 19, 2019

Stock Market Counter-trend Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – Final long-term phase on the way?  How much longer, is the question.

Intermediate trend –  The anticipated intermediate-term correction has started.  Can’t tell yet if it’s a C-wave or something less. 

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends. 

Sunday, May 19, 2019

Will Stock Market “Sell in May, Go Away” Lead to a Correction… or a Crash? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Graham_Summers

The markets are now within spitting distance of a top.

Our target for the bounce is anywhere in the red box… stocks will likely enter that range today as Wall Street engages in its usual options expiration games. The perfect top would be a backtest of the former rally’s trendline (red line), but in investing things are rarely perfect.

Sunday, May 19, 2019

US vs. Global Stocks Sector Rotation – What Next? Part 1 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our research team, at www.TheTechnicalTraders.com, have been pouring over the charts and data to identify what is likely to happen over the next 60+ days in terms of global stock market volatility vs. the US stock market expectations.  Recently, we posted a research article highlighting our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system on the Transportation Index (https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/markets-rally-hard-is-the-volatility-move-over/).  This research suggests we are still going to experience increased price volatility over the next 30 to 60+ days and that price rotation may become somewhat of a normal expectation throughout the rest of 2019.

We believe the key to understanding price volatility over the next 30+ days lies in understanding the potential causes of uncertainty and capital shifts that are taking place around the globe.

Next week, On May 23~26, 2019, the European Elections take place (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/0/european-elections-2019-uk-vote-date-results/).  This voting encompasses all 26 EU nations where all 753 European Parliament seats may come into question.  The biggest issues are BREXIT and continue EU leadership and economic opportunities for members.  The contentious pre and post-election rancor could drive wild price swings in the global markets over the next 10+ days.