Sunday, May 12, 2019
US Stock Market Leading Macro Economic Indicators Update / Economics / US Economy
By: Troy_Bombardia
Instead of trying to predict when the economy will deteriorate in the distant future (which countless experts have tried and failed), we simply look for deterioration among the leading indicators. Instead of predicting the next 10 steps, we seek to predict the next 1-2 steps for the economy.
Here’s a brief summary of the leading economic indicators we track
Positive factors
- Labor market
- Corporate profits
- Financial conditions
- Loans
- High yield spreads
- Inflation-adjusted new orders
- Heavy Truck Sales
Negative factors
- Housing
- Yield curve
- Inflation-adjusted retail sales
- Earnings revisions
- Average weekly hours
Sunday, May 12, 2019
US Will Increase Pressure on Hong Kong In An Attempt to Cripple China's Growing Tech Influence / Politics / China US Conflict
By: Alasdair_Macleod
Behind the Huawei story, we must not forget there is a wider financial war being waged by America against China and Russia. Stories about China’s banks being short of dollars are incorrect: the shortage is of inward capital flows to support the US Government’s budget deficit. By attracting those global portfolio flows instead, China’s Belt and Road Initiative threatens US Government finances, so the financial war and associated disinformation can be expected to escalate. Hong Kong is likely to be in the firing line, due to its role in providing China with access to international finance.
Hong Kong in Trouble?
Last week, The Wall Street Journal published an article claiming China’s banks are running out of dollars. Clearly, this is untrue. China’s banks can acquire dollars any time they want, either by selling other foreign currencies in the market, or by selling renminbi to the People’s bank. They have their dollar position because they choose to have it, and furthermore all commercial banks use derivatives, which are effectively off-balance sheet exposure. Furthermore, with the US running a substantial trade deficit with China, dollars are flooding in all the time.
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Sunday, May 12, 2019
Elliott Wave Analysis of SLV (Silver ETF) / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: WavePatternTraders
Is it time to be looking to buy Silver?Into the Feb 2019 highs, traders had turned very bullish on the metals, understandably so, as the metals had been rallying for a number of months from their respective 2018 lows. Upside targets were being increased from the precious metals Gurus, and traders/investors were buying the short term bullish hype.
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Sunday, May 12, 2019
BrExit Party MEP Seats Forecast in EU Elections 23rd May 2019 / ElectionOracle / European Elections
By: N_Walayat
Will the lying toe rags in Westminster (Labour and Conservatives) who never had any intentions of honouring the outcome of the 2016 EU Referendum reap the whirlwind at the May 23rd European Elections? If so then how many of the 73 MEP seats can Nigel Farage's new Brexit Party hope to win? Find out in my latest Brexit video.
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Saturday, May 11, 2019
SAMSUNG - BC94.L - Investing in AI Machine Intelligence Stocks / Companies / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Where to invest to profit from the exponential machine intelligence mega-trend. I have ranked these stocks in in terms of risk vs reward and volatility. Do remember that when investing in the stock market that your capital is at risk. There are NO SURE BETS!
If you've not already done so then watch my following video from November 2016 which illustrates why everything will start to change exponentially by 2022.
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Saturday, May 11, 2019
US Increases Trade Tariffs Against China – Stock Markets, Gold, and Silver / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Today, the US increased tariffs on $200B of Chinese goods as the US/China trade deal breaks down. China has vowed to retaliate for the move. The past week has seen the global markets shocked by two items: Iran sanctions and US/China trade breakdown. The markets had been expecting a US/China trade deal to be reached and optimism was quite high – hence the rally in the Chinese stock market and the rally in the US stock market. What next?
Well, we believe this news, as well as future news that will likely hit the markets over the next 3+ months, will continue to prompt the Shake-Out we have been warning about. Depending on how severe these news events are, the rotation in the markets could be quite severe as well.
Our recent analysis suggests that recent lows in the US stock market may be near-term support and that the US stock market may attempt to form a bottom near these lows. Our research shows the Transportation Index is leading this move. We believe the ORANGE Moving Average level, as well as the RED and GREY Fibonacci projection points, will act as a temporary price floor this week and next. The YM could move lower by 100 to 200 points today, retesting these low levels, before recovering near the end of the day.
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Saturday, May 11, 2019
Discover 5 Reliable Trading Setups in Just 26 Minutes / InvestorEducation / Learn to Trade
By: EWI
Greetings,
Did you know 60-80% of price action unfolds in just 5 core Elliott wave patterns? It's true.
If you can get familiar with just those five, you'll be able to quickly scour you price charts. When one of those patterns shows up, you will have identified a potential high-confidence set-up.
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Saturday, May 11, 2019
Who Has More To Lose In A No Deal Brexit? / Politics / BrExit
By: Submissions
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Saturday, May 11, 2019
Gold at $1,344 Will Start Real Fireworks on the Upside / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.
Coming up Greg Weldon of Weldon Financial joins me for a sensational interview on how he views the precious metals now and which one he favors over the others. Plus, Greg has some warnings about why a failure to finalize a trade deal with China very soon could be very problematic for the U.S. stock market. So, be sure to stick around for one of our very favorite guests, Greg Weldon, coming up after this week’s market update.
As volatility unnerved stock market investors this week, gold proved to be a good safe haven. The yellow metal didn’t move all that much, but it did provide some measure of stability. For the week, gold prices are up 0.5% to trade at $1,287 per ounce.
Turning to the white metals, they are succumbing to wider selling pressure in economically sensitive assets. Silver shows a weekly loss of 1.4% to bring spot prices to $14.80 an ounce. Platinum is off 1.0% since last Friday to come in at $866. And finally, palladium is rallying strongly today and is now showing only a 0.6% decline on the week to trade at $1,355 per ounce as of this Friday morning recording.
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Friday, May 10, 2019
Make America’s Economy Great Again / Economics / US Economy
By: Richard_Mills
A lot of Americans find themselves in a quandary over Donald Trump. On the one hand they can’t stand the braggadocious billionaire for his lack of principles, business ethics, exorbitant wealth, his treatment of women, minorities, the list goes on and on. But they also have to admit, the economy is in better shape now than when Barack Obama was installed in the White House.
Can Trump justifiably take credit for the economic expansion of the last two and a half years? Why is the US economy growing? In this article, we’ll take a deep dive into the question, “Why is the American economy great again?”
The sweet spot
The facts would appear to support that notion - the evidence shows that the economy has done extremely well since Trump was inaugurated as president in January, 2017.
In the first quarter, the US economy barreled along at 3.2%. A year ago it was at 4.2%. That’s not the highest growth the American economy has seen historically, but it’s pretty good. Taking a look at the chart below by Trading Economics, we can see that economic growth peaked in 2014, at close to 6%, when Obama was president, then dropped under 1% as the US election cycle began, in 2015. Since Trump has taken the helm, the trend line is clearly up.
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Friday, May 10, 2019
Big US Stocks’ 2019 Fundamentals / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Zeal_LLC
The US stock markets sure feel inflectiony, at a major juncture. After achieving new all-time record highs, sentiment was euphoric heading into this week. But those latest heights could be a massive triple top that formed over 15 months. Then heavy selling erupted in recent days as the US-China trade war suddenly went hostile. The big US stocks’ just-reported Q1’19 fundamentals will help determine where markets go next.
Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports. Required by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, these 10-Qs and 10-Ks contain the best fundamental data available to traders. They dispel all the sentiment distortions inevitably surrounding prevailing stock-price levels, revealing corporations’ underlying hard fundamental realities.
The deadline for filing 10-Qs for “large accelerated filers” is 40 days after fiscal quarter-ends. The SEC defines this as companies with market capitalizations over $700m. That currently includes every stock in the flagship S&P 500 stock index (SPX), which contains the biggest and best American companies. The middle of this week marked 38 days since the end of Q1, so almost all the big US stocks have reported.
The SPX is the world’s most-important stock index by far, with its components commanding a staggering collective market cap of $24.9t at the end of Q1! The vast majority of investors own the big US stocks of the SPX, as some combination of them are usually the top holdings of nearly every investment fund. That includes retirement capital, so the fortunes of the big US stocks are crucial for Americans’ overall wealth.
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Friday, May 10, 2019
Bitcoin Bull Market Is Back / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Avi_Gilburt
I am hoping that the title to this article will mark the local top to the rally off the December 2018 lows in Bitcoin. (smile) But, that does not change our perspective that it is likely that Bitcoin has resumed its bull market run.
As we came into 2019, Ryan Wilday and I have been publishing articles about Bitcoin, with our ideal targets for the initial rally off its December 2018 lows pointing to the $6000-7000 region before a top forms. And, as we now find ourselves in our target region, we now can count the minimum number of waves in Bitcoin to mark a near term top. Therefore, as I write this article while Bitcoin is hovering around $6,050, we are still looking a bit higher in the near term, but with more caution than prior articles.
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Friday, May 10, 2019
What is a Bigger Alchemists’ Dream: MMT or Transmutation Into Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Traditional alchemist always desired to turn lead into gold. The modern ones want to increase government spending without any limits. We invite you to read our today’s article about the Modern Monetary Theory and find out what is it and what would mean for the gold market, if implemented.
Great news for all who oppose the House of Lannister’s rule in King’s Landing – the final season of the Game of Thrones has eventually began, so the status quo in Westeros will be certainly challenged. Similarly, we have joyous news for all who dislike the mainstream economics – the new theory has recently joined the game of thrones among the economic theories after the Great Recession. The fresh alternative which is quickly gaining popularity is the Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). What is it and what would it bring for the economy and the gold market, if implemented?
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Friday, May 10, 2019
UBER IPO Competitively Priced for First Trading Day Gain of 10% to $50 / Companies / IPOs
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UBER has decided to IPO at the lower end of market expectations at $45 per share with a view to raising $82 billion. Priced well below market expectations of $50. Therefore it is highly likely that UBER will have a successful first days trading that could easily see the stock trade higher by 10% to $50 that would value the company at $90 billion.
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Friday, May 10, 2019
Stock Market US China Trade War Panic! Trend Forecast May 2019 Update / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Just as the mainstream media had gotten used to the stock market rallying towards new all time highs into the end of April. Suddenly, out of the blue TRADE WAR PANIC hits the markets and apparently is responsible for the ongoing downturn in the US and world general stock market indices. This illustrates the way the mainstream media tends to work where the big news story of the day is used to explain the direction of a market, with the same news usually spinned as an explanation for either when the market goes up or down! And Mays big news story to explain the downswing is the latest saga in the US / China trade war, namely increased tariffs from 10% to 25% to kick on $200 billion of Chinese goods today (Friday 10th May) triggered by China trying to pull a fast one on the US by backtracking on earlier promises, which illustrates that NO ONE can trust what China says, not even the worlds Super Power!
Friday, May 10, 2019
Stock Market Shake-Out Continues – Where Is The Bottom? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Smart traders are already asking themselves “where is the bottom for this move”. They’ve likely been through these types of rotations in market price before and understand the fundamentals of the US economy are strong enough to support further upside price activity in the near future. The current US/China trade worries could result in a pricing disruption of 4 to 8%, seen as rotation, yet the US Fed is continuing to leave rates unchanged and most US economic numbers are still posting strong levels.
So, smart traders want to know where the bottom in the market is likely to be found and when they should start to accumulate new long positions – which is understandable. We’re here to help.
Our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system is one of the unique modeling tools we use to hone into any market move. The reason for this is because it shows us so much data that we can “read into” our analysis/research. The other reason is that it is an “adaptive learning” model – which means it continues to learn from price data and adapt its analysis of that data.
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Friday, May 10, 2019
Total Debt and Leveraged Loans to the Rescue of Gold Bulls? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The Fed has just published the newest edition of its Financial Stability Report. It covers what the most powerful central bank in the world perceives as risks to the financial system stability. Is it time for the gold bulls to uncork champagne?
Financial Sectors Appears Resilient, But…
The Fed’s assessment of the financial vulnerabilities in the latest Financial Stability Report has little changed since November 2018 when the report was inaugurated. The financial sector appears resilient, with low leverage and limited funding risk. It seems that gold will have to wait longer for a crisis that could push its prices out of the comfort zone.
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Thursday, May 09, 2019
The Global Consequences of U.S. Executive Power / Politics / US Politics
By: Dan_Steinbock
(Or How Carl Schmitt Took Over the 21st Century White House) Since the Nixon era, the lure of executive power has increased in the White House. After decades of global integration, misguided policy decisions, legitimized in the name of ‘national security,’ can derail economic prospects in America and worldwide. The doctrines share a dark history.
The first administration to make explicit reference to the "Unitary Executive" was the Reagan administration. Typically, the practice has evolved since the 1970s, when President Nixon decoupled U.S. dollar from the Bretton Woods gold standard and trade deficits began to rise.
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Thursday, May 09, 2019
S&P 500 3000 First and Then…? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Brad_Gudgeon
When I last wrote on April 26th, I was looking for a move above 2960. We tagged 2954 on May 1 and then pulled back to 2862 on May 7th. The SPX fell into a rising channel formation and declined to go below 2860, which means to me we have one more rally left before we see a more significant decline later in May and early June.
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Thursday, May 09, 2019
Trade Negotiation in Jeopardy After China Reneged its Commitment / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: ElliottWaveForecast
Summary
- The odds of trade war escalation rises after Trump sent a pair of tweets threatening to increase tariffs to Chinese goods.
- If there is no deal by this Friday, the tariffs to Chinese goods will rise to 25% from 10% on $300 billion. Additional $325 billion of Chinese goods will also get 25% tariff.
- The rapid deterioration is due to the reversal of China’s commitment to address the U.S. core complaints.
- U.S companies with huge presence and sales in China, like Apple, can suffer if there’s trade war escalation.
- Elliott Wave Analysis on Apple suggests another major correction can happen.