Friday, May 10, 2019
Big US Stocks’ 2019 Fundamentals / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Zeal_LLC
The US stock markets sure feel inflectiony, at a major juncture. After achieving new all-time record highs, sentiment was euphoric heading into this week. But those latest heights could be a massive triple top that formed over 15 months. Then heavy selling erupted in recent days as the US-China trade war suddenly went hostile. The big US stocks’ just-reported Q1’19 fundamentals will help determine where markets go next.
Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports. Required by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, these 10-Qs and 10-Ks contain the best fundamental data available to traders. They dispel all the sentiment distortions inevitably surrounding prevailing stock-price levels, revealing corporations’ underlying hard fundamental realities.
The deadline for filing 10-Qs for “large accelerated filers” is 40 days after fiscal quarter-ends. The SEC defines this as companies with market capitalizations over $700m. That currently includes every stock in the flagship S&P 500 stock index (SPX), which contains the biggest and best American companies. The middle of this week marked 38 days since the end of Q1, so almost all the big US stocks have reported.
The SPX is the world’s most-important stock index by far, with its components commanding a staggering collective market cap of $24.9t at the end of Q1! The vast majority of investors own the big US stocks of the SPX, as some combination of them are usually the top holdings of nearly every investment fund. That includes retirement capital, so the fortunes of the big US stocks are crucial for Americans’ overall wealth.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 10, 2019
Bitcoin Bull Market Is Back / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Avi_Gilburt
I am hoping that the title to this article will mark the local top to the rally off the December 2018 lows in Bitcoin. (smile) But, that does not change our perspective that it is likely that Bitcoin has resumed its bull market run.
As we came into 2019, Ryan Wilday and I have been publishing articles about Bitcoin, with our ideal targets for the initial rally off its December 2018 lows pointing to the $6000-7000 region before a top forms. And, as we now find ourselves in our target region, we now can count the minimum number of waves in Bitcoin to mark a near term top. Therefore, as I write this article while Bitcoin is hovering around $6,050, we are still looking a bit higher in the near term, but with more caution than prior articles.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 10, 2019
What is a Bigger Alchemists’ Dream: MMT or Transmutation Into Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Traditional alchemist always desired to turn lead into gold. The modern ones want to increase government spending without any limits. We invite you to read our today’s article about the Modern Monetary Theory and find out what is it and what would mean for the gold market, if implemented.
Great news for all who oppose the House of Lannister’s rule in King’s Landing – the final season of the Game of Thrones has eventually began, so the status quo in Westeros will be certainly challenged. Similarly, we have joyous news for all who dislike the mainstream economics – the new theory has recently joined the game of thrones among the economic theories after the Great Recession. The fresh alternative which is quickly gaining popularity is the Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). What is it and what would it bring for the economy and the gold market, if implemented?
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 10, 2019
UBER IPO Competitively Priced for First Trading Day Gain of 10% to $50 / Companies / IPOs
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UBER has decided to IPO at the lower end of market expectations at $45 per share with a view to raising $82 billion. Priced well below market expectations of $50. Therefore it is highly likely that UBER will have a successful first days trading that could easily see the stock trade higher by 10% to $50 that would value the company at $90 billion.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 10, 2019
Stock Market US China Trade War Panic! Trend Forecast May 2019 Update / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Just as the mainstream media had gotten used to the stock market rallying towards new all time highs into the end of April. Suddenly, out of the blue TRADE WAR PANIC hits the markets and apparently is responsible for the ongoing downturn in the US and world general stock market indices. This illustrates the way the mainstream media tends to work where the big news story of the day is used to explain the direction of a market, with the same news usually spinned as an explanation for either when the market goes up or down! And Mays big news story to explain the downswing is the latest saga in the US / China trade war, namely increased tariffs from 10% to 25% to kick on $200 billion of Chinese goods today (Friday 10th May) triggered by China trying to pull a fast one on the US by backtracking on earlier promises, which illustrates that NO ONE can trust what China says, not even the worlds Super Power!
Friday, May 10, 2019
Stock Market Shake-Out Continues – Where Is The Bottom? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Smart traders are already asking themselves “where is the bottom for this move”. They’ve likely been through these types of rotations in market price before and understand the fundamentals of the US economy are strong enough to support further upside price activity in the near future. The current US/China trade worries could result in a pricing disruption of 4 to 8%, seen as rotation, yet the US Fed is continuing to leave rates unchanged and most US economic numbers are still posting strong levels.
So, smart traders want to know where the bottom in the market is likely to be found and when they should start to accumulate new long positions – which is understandable. We’re here to help.
Our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system is one of the unique modeling tools we use to hone into any market move. The reason for this is because it shows us so much data that we can “read into” our analysis/research. The other reason is that it is an “adaptive learning” model – which means it continues to learn from price data and adapt its analysis of that data.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 10, 2019
Total Debt and Leveraged Loans to the Rescue of Gold Bulls? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The Fed has just published the newest edition of its Financial Stability Report. It covers what the most powerful central bank in the world perceives as risks to the financial system stability. Is it time for the gold bulls to uncork champagne?
Financial Sectors Appears Resilient, But…
The Fed’s assessment of the financial vulnerabilities in the latest Financial Stability Report has little changed since November 2018 when the report was inaugurated. The financial sector appears resilient, with low leverage and limited funding risk. It seems that gold will have to wait longer for a crisis that could push its prices out of the comfort zone.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 09, 2019
The Global Consequences of U.S. Executive Power / Politics / US Politics
By: Dan_Steinbock
(Or How Carl Schmitt Took Over the 21st Century White House) Since the Nixon era, the lure of executive power has increased in the White House. After decades of global integration, misguided policy decisions, legitimized in the name of ‘national security,’ can derail economic prospects in America and worldwide. The doctrines share a dark history.
The first administration to make explicit reference to the "Unitary Executive" was the Reagan administration. Typically, the practice has evolved since the 1970s, when President Nixon decoupled U.S. dollar from the Bretton Woods gold standard and trade deficits began to rise.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 09, 2019
S&P 500 3000 First and Then…? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Brad_Gudgeon
When I last wrote on April 26th, I was looking for a move above 2960. We tagged 2954 on May 1 and then pulled back to 2862 on May 7th. The SPX fell into a rising channel formation and declined to go below 2860, which means to me we have one more rally left before we see a more significant decline later in May and early June.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 09, 2019
Trade Negotiation in Jeopardy After China Reneged its Commitment / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: ElliottWaveForecast
Summary
- The odds of trade war escalation rises after Trump sent a pair of tweets threatening to increase tariffs to Chinese goods.
- If there is no deal by this Friday, the tariffs to Chinese goods will rise to 25% from 10% on $300 billion. Additional $325 billion of Chinese goods will also get 25% tariff.
- The rapid deterioration is due to the reversal of China’s commitment to address the U.S. core complaints.
- U.S companies with huge presence and sales in China, like Apple, can suffer if there’s trade war escalation.
- Elliott Wave Analysis on Apple suggests another major correction can happen.
Thursday, May 09, 2019
Gold Miners’ Strength – What If It Isn’t Just a Bluff? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The stock market took a dive, and gold with silver barely moved higher. Miners had little reason to rally, especially that they have been underperforming gold for many days now. And yet, gold stocks and silver stocks moved visibly higher. What if it isn’t just a bluff? What if it’s the first sign that the near-term bottom is already in?
Well, if this is the case, then the upside for the miners is very limited.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 09, 2019
Gold Market Investors Subliminal Capitulation / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: The_Gold_Report
Sector expert Michael Ballanger suggests investors "never underestimate the replacement power of stocks within a Fed-induced credit bubble" and provides other observations on the markets. Looking back at the events of last week, the S&P 500 finally took out the October highs at 2,941 intraday, making the 2018 bear market one of the shortest on record at 93 days (Sept. 21–Dec. 24). You will recall that I wrote in early January that the action of the Santa Claus rally (positive) and the action of the First Five Days rule (positive) was finally confirmed by the January Indicator (positive), setting up new highs for 2019 (which was right). I also said that I expected a retest of the December lows (wrong) and a pullback from the 200 daily moving average (dma) in February (wrong) and that Goldman Sachs was headed back to $150 (wrong) (at least so far).
Look at these charts. Can any of you honestly see any difference? They both reek of intervention but the only difference is that the one from 2009 has now had books and movies written about it. We know that no one went to jail over the causes of the crash, and we know that the method used by the central bankers to correct the problem (which was to take in all of the toxic paper that was rotting their balance sheets) resulted in more debt creation ($14 trillion worth). This was exactly the root of the 2018 problem because as soon as they tried to remove the 2009 "bandaid,"they were catapulted right back to 2009. Stocks were simply gravitating back to their old trajectory before the Fed/Treasury bailout temporarily saved the stock market. What we got last Christmas Eve was the same bailout as in 2009, but it came about before people started to lose jobs and homes. The "V-bottom"turns in 2009 and in 2019 are identical, and emanated from interventions of the highest order and priority.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 09, 2019
New Federal Legislation Requires Full Audit of America’s Gold Reserves / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
U.S. Representative Alex Mooney (R-WV) introduced legislation this week to provide for the first audit of United States gold reserves since the Eisenhower Administration.
The Gold Reserve Transparency Act (H.R. 2559) – backed by the Sound Money Defense League and government accountability advocates – directs the Comptroller of the United States to conduct a “full assay, inventory, and audit of all gold reserves, including any gold in ‘deep storage,’ of the United States at the place or places where such reserves are kept.”
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 09, 2019
Bitcoin Setting Up For Another Drop / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Last year just days before the big Bitcoin breakdown we notified everyone publicly to get ready for a swift drop from $6000 to $4000 which played out perfectly within a few days. Our cycle system and technical analysis skills combined can pack a powerful punch and this one of those incredible moves where the stars aligned for us as traders.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 09, 2019
What you need to know about the PDT rule / InvestorEducation / Learn to Trade
By: Submissions
One of the most ignored subjects in stock trading is the PDT rule. However, it is unimaginable how the rule can get you into trouble especially if you are not ready to meet the basic requirements. In this article, we are going to break down what a PDT is and the rules that govern pattern day trading.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 09, 2019
May 10th 2019 - A Big Day for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: readtheticker
This Friday (May 10th 2019) TRUMPs red line on the China trade talk will move stocks. Will trends break?
readtheticker.com correlation Period Scan tool suggest it will be either OutPut1 or OutPut2. Of course correlation is not causation, but a equity market trend of 10 years may soon find its end.
95% correlation scans are always interesting.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 09, 2019
How Arya Stark Became the Night King Killer - Game of Thrones / Personal_Finance / Social Media
By: Sami_Walayat
Arya Stark's progression through Game of Thrones from Season 1 right through to her Season 8's stealthy assassination of the Night King! And there's still at least Cersi to come !
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 08, 2019
Trump Bashes Political Correctness, Gold Rush Mascot Banned as Offensive / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
The roller coaster presidency of Donald Trump is currently riding high as the stock market races back up to new highs, economic data come in better than expected, and Congressional Democrats’ endless investigations come up empty handed.
Trump’s approval rating recently hit 50% at the same time as CNN’s ratings are tanking.
Over the weekend, President Trump sent CNN and the rest of the “MSM” (mainstream media) into a tizzy by speaking out against the latest Big Tech purge of “far right” voices.
Trump re-tweeted verboten alternative media personalities including Paul Joseph Watson and Lauren Southern.
Wednesday, May 08, 2019
How Fed Interest Rate Cycles Exponentially Reduce Long Term Wealth Creation / Interest-Rates / Economic Theory
By: Dan_Amerman
The most historically reliable way to create long term wealth is the reinvestment of cash flows over time, as earnings are earned on earnings, which are earned on earnings.
Compound interest is the best known example, but the same principle of compounding cash flows is also the most powerful and stable source of wealth with the stocks and real estate over the long term as well.
Reinvested (and increasing) dividends are a more important and stable source of stock market wealth than price gains. Reinvested (and increasing) net cash flows are the most stable and important source of wealth with real estate and REIT investments as well.
However, what was taken for granted for many decades - is no longer available. As a result of Federal Reserve policies, only a small fraction of the historically average power of this wealth building engine still remains. In this analysis we will examine the mathematical implications of publicly stated Fed intentions if there is another recession, and look at the extraordinary implications for investors.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 08, 2019
Do the Crude Oil Bulls Have Any Aces Left Up Their Sleeves? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Crude oil has had an eventful session yesterday. It has closed the opening gap and the bulls have been building upon their gains till the session’s close. Earlier today however, the price appears to be rolling over and heading south. Is all hope for higher oil lost? The bulls have shown to be quite tireless. Can they pull a rabbit out of their hats shortly?
Let’s take a closer look at the chart below (chart courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
Read full article... Read full article...