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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Economics

Tuesday, May 14, 2019

Breaking Down Today’s Inflation / Economics / Inflation

By: Rodney_Johnson

I recently had dinner with my extended family. Afterwards, my parents mentioned they were surprised at how expensive the meal had been. It was a nice restaurant, but nothing fancy. It worked out to roughly $50 apiece, before tip. As we left, we separately climbed into our newish cars, which all cost more than $40,000. My brother-in-law’s pickup tops out over $50,000.

But don’t worry, the government tells us, there’s not much inflation.

We could have chosen a cheaper restaurant, and less expensive cars, which is exactly the point the government tries to make…

The government wants us accustomed to the chained consumer price index (CPI), where prices move higher and we’re chained to a falling standard of living.

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InvestorEducation

Tuesday, May 14, 2019

eBook - Greatest Tool for Trading? / InvestorEducation / Learn to Trade

By: Submissions

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InvestorEducation

Tuesday, May 14, 2019

Classic Pitfalls for Inexperienced Traders / InvestorEducation / Learn to Trade

By: Submissions

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Stock-Markets

Monday, May 13, 2019

Stock Market S&P 500 Negative Expectations Again / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Paul_Rejczak

Stocks were gaining on Friday following a lower opening of the trading session and the morning sell-off. The S&P 500 index extended its downtrend before bouncing off and closing 0.4% higher. So was it an upward reversal or just correction within a downtrend?

The U.S. stock market indexes gained 0.1-0.4% on Friday, after bouncing off their new lows as investors’ sentiment improved despite an ongoing trade war. The S&P 500 index retraced the whole of its April’s advance. It currently trades 2.4% below its May the 1st record high of 2,954.13. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.4% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.1% on Friday.

The nearest important resistance level of the S&P 500 index is at 2,890-2,900, marked by the previous support level. The resistance level is also at 2,920. On the other hand, the support level is at 2,860-2,865. The support level is also at around 2,835-2,850, marked by April the 1st daily gap up of 2,836.03-2,848.63.

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Politics

Monday, May 13, 2019

Why Rising Living Standard in China Offers Global Hope / Politics / China Economy

By: Dan_Steinbock

China’s 70-Year Anniversary    

As living standard rises in China, its global contribution continues to increase. And that means potential for growth, poverty reduction and prosperity in emerging and developing world - new hope.

When Chairman Mao Zedong proclaimed the founding of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) on October 1, 1949, the Chinese people could finally begin to leave behind a century of colonial humiliation and start building a new life.

What remains so poorly understood is how dire were the conditions on that extraordinary day, seven decades ago. While China had sustained its triumph, Chinese living standard was barely 5 percent relative to the United States.
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Stock-Markets

Monday, May 13, 2019

Stock Market Anticipated Correction Starts On Cue! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend Final long-term phase on the way?  How much longer, is the question.

Intermediate trend –  The anticipated intermediate term correction has started.  Can’t tell yet, if it’s a C-wave or something less. 

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends

Daily market analysis of the short-term trend is reserved for subscribers.  If you would like to sign up for a FREE 4-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at ajg@cybertrails.com 

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Stock-Markets

Monday, May 13, 2019

How Chinese Trade Issues Will Drive Stock Market Trends / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

It is becoming evident that the US/Chinese trade issues are going to become a point of contention for the markets going forward.  We’ve been review as much news as possible in an attempt to build a consensus for the future of the US markets and global markets.  As of last week, it appears any potential trade deal with China has reset back to square one.  The news we are reading suggests that China wants to reset their commitments with the US, remove all tariffs and wants the US to commit to buying certain levels of Chinese goods in the future.  Additionally, China has yet to commit to stopping the IP/Technology theft from US companies – which is a very big contention for the US.

This suggests the past 6+ months of trade talks have completely broken down and that this trade issue will likely become a market driver over the next 12+ months.  The global markets had anticipated a deal to be reached by the end of March 2019.  At that time, Trump announced that he was extending talks with China without installing any new tariffs.  The intent was to show commitment with China to reach a deal at that time – quickly.

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ConsumerWatch

Monday, May 13, 2019

Amazon SCAM Deliveries for Fake Verified Purchaser Reviews "Brushing" / ConsumerWatch / Amazon

By: HGR

We, like an increasing number of people have been on the receiving end of products from Amazon that we NEVER ORDERED! Random low priced stuff without any info of who's sending the item and most of it usually completely useless.

So what's going on?

Is someone you know sending you junk to wind you up? We'll it's likely an Amazon SCAM called 'Brushing'. Where the primary purpose is for the Seller to be able to write a glowing Amazon verified purchaser FAKE review so as to entice Amazon customers to buy.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, May 13, 2019

Stock Market US China Trade War Panic - Video / Stock-Markets / China US Conflict

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Just as the mainstream media had gotten used to the stock market rallying towards new all time highs into the end of April. Suddenly, out of the blue TRADE WAR PANIC hits the markets and apparently is responsible for the ongoing downturn in the US and world general stock market indices. This illustrates the way the mainstream media tends to work where the big news story of the day is used to explain the direction of a market, with the same news usually spinned as an explanation for either when the market goes up or down! And Mays big news story to explain the downswing is the latest saga in the US / China trade war, namely increased tariffs from 10% to 25% to kick on $200 billion of Chinese goods today (Friday 10th May) triggered by China trying to pull a fast one on the US by backtracking on earlier promises, which illustrates that NO ONE can trust what China says, not even the worlds Super Power!

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Economics

Sunday, May 12, 2019

US Stock Market Leading Macro Economic Indicators Update / Economics / US Economy

By: Troy_Bombardia

Instead of trying to predict when the economy will deteriorate in the distant future (which countless experts have tried and failed), we simply look for deterioration among the leading indicators. Instead of predicting the next 10 steps, we seek to predict the next 1-2 steps for the economy.

Here’s a brief summary of the leading economic indicators we track

Positive factors

  1. Labor market
  2. Corporate profits
  3. Financial conditions
  4. Loans
  5. High yield spreads
  6. Inflation-adjusted new orders
  7. Heavy Truck Sales

Negative factors

  1. Housing
  2. Yield curve
  3. Inflation-adjusted retail sales
  4. Earnings revisions
  5. Average weekly hours
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Politics

Sunday, May 12, 2019

US Will Increase Pressure on Hong Kong In An Attempt to Cripple China's Growing Tech Influence / Politics / China US Conflict

By: Alasdair_Macleod

Behind the Huawei story, we must not forget there is a wider financial war being waged by America against China and Russia. Stories about China’s banks being short of dollars are incorrect: the shortage is of inward capital flows to support the US Government’s budget deficit. By attracting those global portfolio flows instead, China’s Belt and Road Initiative threatens US Government finances, so the financial war and associated disinformation can be expected to escalate. Hong Kong is likely to be in the firing line, due to its role in providing China with access to international finance.

Hong Kong in Trouble?

Last week, The Wall Street Journal published an article claiming China’s banks are running out of dollars. Clearly, this is untrue. China’s banks can acquire dollars any time they want, either by selling other foreign currencies in the market, or by selling renminbi to the People’s bank. They have their dollar position because they choose to have it, and furthermore all commercial banks use derivatives, which are effectively off-balance sheet exposure. Furthermore, with the US running a substantial trade deficit with China, dollars are flooding in all the time.

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Commodities

Sunday, May 12, 2019

Elliott Wave Analysis of SLV (Silver ETF) / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: WavePatternTraders

Is it time to be looking to buy Silver?

Into the Feb 2019 highs, traders had turned very bullish on the metals, understandably so, as the metals had been rallying for a number of months from their respective 2018 lows. Upside targets were being increased from the precious metals Gurus, and traders/investors were buying the short term bullish hype.
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ElectionOracle

Sunday, May 12, 2019

BrExit Party MEP Seats Forecast in EU Elections 23rd May 2019 / ElectionOracle / European Elections

By: N_Walayat

Will the lying toe rags in Westminster (Labour and Conservatives) who never had any intentions of honouring the outcome of the 2016 EU Referendum reap the whirlwind at the May 23rd European Elections? If so then how many of the 73 MEP seats can Nigel Farage's new Brexit Party hope to win? Find out in my latest Brexit video.

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Companies

Saturday, May 11, 2019

SAMSUNG - BC94.L - Investing in AI Machine Intelligence Stocks / Companies / AI

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Where to invest to profit from the exponential machine intelligence mega-trend. I have ranked these stocks in in terms of risk vs reward and volatility. Do remember that when investing in the stock market that your capital is at risk. There are NO SURE BETS!

If you've not already done so then watch my following video from November 2016 which illustrates why everything will start to change exponentially by 2022.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, May 11, 2019

US Increases Trade Tariffs Against China – Stock Markets, Gold, and Silver / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Today, the US increased tariffs on $200B of Chinese goods as the US/China trade deal breaks down.  China has vowed to retaliate for the move.  The past week has seen the global markets shocked by two items: Iran sanctions and US/China trade breakdown.  The markets had been expecting a US/China trade deal to be reached and optimism was quite high – hence the rally in the Chinese stock market and the rally in the US stock market.  What next?

Well, we believe this news, as well as future news that will likely hit the markets over the next 3+ months, will continue to prompt the Shake-Out we have been warning about.  Depending on how severe these news events are, the rotation in the markets could be quite severe as well.

Our recent analysis suggests that recent lows in the US stock market may be near-term support and that the US stock market may attempt to form a bottom near these lows.  Our research shows the Transportation Index is leading this move.  We believe the ORANGE Moving Average level, as well as the RED and GREY Fibonacci projection points, will act as a temporary price floor this week and next.  The YM could move lower by 100 to 200 points today, retesting these low levels, before recovering near the end of the day.

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InvestorEducation

Saturday, May 11, 2019

Discover 5 Reliable Trading Setups in Just 26 Minutes / InvestorEducation / Learn to Trade

By: EWI

Greetings,

Did you know 60-80% of price action unfolds in just 5 core Elliott wave patterns? It's true.

If you can get familiar with just those five, you'll be able to quickly scour you price charts. When one of those patterns shows up, you will have identified a potential high-confidence set-up.

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Politics

Saturday, May 11, 2019

Who Has More To Lose In A No Deal Brexit? / Politics / BrExit

By: Submissions

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Commodities

Saturday, May 11, 2019

Gold at $1,344 Will Start Real Fireworks on the Upside / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.

Coming up Greg Weldon of Weldon Financial joins me for a sensational interview on how he views the precious metals now and which one he favors over the others. Plus, Greg has some warnings about why a failure to finalize a trade deal with China very soon could be very problematic for the U.S. stock market. So, be sure to stick around for one of our very favorite guests, Greg Weldon, coming up after this week’s market update.

As volatility unnerved stock market investors this week, gold proved to be a good safe haven. The yellow metal didn’t move all that much, but it did provide some measure of stability. For the week, gold prices are up 0.5% to trade at $1,287 per ounce.

Turning to the white metals, they are succumbing to wider selling pressure in economically sensitive assets. Silver shows a weekly loss of 1.4% to bring spot prices to $14.80 an ounce. Platinum is off 1.0% since last Friday to come in at $866. And finally, palladium is rallying strongly today and is now showing only a 0.6% decline on the week to trade at $1,355 per ounce as of this Friday morning recording.

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Economics

Friday, May 10, 2019

Make America’s Economy Great Again / Economics / US Economy

By: Richard_Mills

A lot of Americans find themselves in a quandary over Donald Trump. On the one hand they can’t stand the braggadocious billionaire for his lack of principles, business ethics, exorbitant wealth, his treatment of women, minorities, the list goes on and on. But they also have to admit, the economy is in better shape now than when Barack Obama was installed in the White House.

Can Trump justifiably take credit for the economic expansion of the last two and a half years? Why is the US economy growing? In this article, we’ll take a deep dive into the question, “Why is the American economy great again?”

The sweet spot

The facts would appear to support that notion - the evidence shows that the economy has done extremely well since Trump was inaugurated as president in January, 2017.

In the first quarter, the US economy barreled along at 3.2%. A year ago it was at 4.2%. That’s not the highest growth the American economy has seen historically, but it’s pretty good. Taking a look at the chart below by Trading Economics, we can see that economic growth peaked in 2014, at close to 6%, when Obama was president, then dropped under 1% as the US election cycle began, in 2015. Since Trump has taken the helm, the trend line is clearly up.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, May 10, 2019

Big US Stocks’ 2019 Fundamentals / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets

By: Zeal_LLC

The US stock markets sure feel inflectiony, at a major juncture.  After achieving new all-time record highs, sentiment was euphoric heading into this week.  But those latest heights could be a massive triple top that formed over 15 months.  Then heavy selling erupted in recent days as the US-China trade war suddenly went hostile.  The big US stocks’ just-reported Q1’19 fundamentals will help determine where markets go next.

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports.  Required by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, these 10-Qs and 10-Ks contain the best fundamental data available to traders.  They dispel all the sentiment distortions inevitably surrounding prevailing stock-price levels, revealing corporations’ underlying hard fundamental realities.

The deadline for filing 10-Qs for “large accelerated filers” is 40 days after fiscal quarter-ends.  The SEC defines this as companies with market capitalizations over $700m.  That currently includes every stock in the flagship S&P 500 stock index (SPX), which contains the biggest and best American companies.  The middle of this week marked 38 days since the end of Q1, so almost all the big US stocks have reported.

The SPX is the world’s most-important stock index by far, with its components commanding a staggering collective market cap of $24.9t at the end of Q1!  The vast majority of investors own the big US stocks of the SPX, as some combination of them are usually the top holdings of nearly every investment fund.  That includes retirement capital, so the fortunes of the big US stocks are crucial for Americans’ overall wealth.

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