Monday, May 27, 2019
Bitcoin Price Stalls Near $8100 / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Chris_Vermeulen
After an incredible 7+week rally in Bitcoin, from $3700 to above $8000, the current price action is setting up for what may become an extended Pennant/Flag formation with quite a bit of sideways trading ahead.
Our researchers believe the past 7+ weeks rally in Bitcoin was prompted by a shift away from risk in Asia/China and into more suitable protection assets. Cryptos appear to be the easy choice for many as this rally coincided with the April 3rd through 6th US/China trade talks in Washington, DC (https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3004961/us-says-theres-still-significant-work-be-done-trade-talks). It appears that many investors were preparing for a difficult deadline after the March 1st deadline for a deal was pushed back. These early April trade talks may have been interpreted as a “do or die” effort from both sides. Again, shortly after the May 1st US/China trade talks in Beijing, Bitcoin began another rally from the $5200 level all the way up to the $8000 level.
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Monday, May 27, 2019
UK EU Election Results, Brexit Party Victory, Labour and Tory Bloodbath, UKIP and ChangeUK Die / ElectionOracle / BrExit
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Britain's ruling establishment has been delivered another bloody nose, even worse than the mainstream establishment press had been expecting that the REMAIN parties would do far better than the LEAVE parties with Brexit party typically expected to win about 24 seats i.e. similar to that of UKIP total in 2014.
However, this is set against my long standing forecast of 10th May with expectations that the Brexit Party would win at least 30 seats with the most probable number being 32 seats as my following video illustrates:
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Sunday, May 26, 2019
The Three M's of Hyperinflation : Milosevic, Mugabe, And Maduro / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Steve_H_Hanke
What do Slobodan Milosevic, Robert Mugabe, and Nicolás Maduro have in common? Other than being leaders who kept the Communist Manifesto at their bedside, all three ushered in devastating hyperinflations.
Hyperinflations are rare. They have only occurred when the supply of money has been governed by discretionary paper money standards. No hyperinflation has ever been recorded when money has been commodity-based or when paper money has been convertible into a commodity.
The first hyperinflation occurred during the French Revolution (1789-96) when the mandat collapsed and the monthly inflation rate peaked at 143% in December of 1795. More than a century elapsed before another episode of hyperinflation occurred. Not coincidentally, this period of currency tranquility occurred during the heyday of the gold standard. With the emergence and adoption of fiat currencies, the 20th century ushered in currency instability and inflation. Indeed, since 1900 there have been 57 episodes of hyperinflation. And, five of those episodes can be claimed by Yugoslavia, Zimbabwe, and Venezuela. All are featured in the Hanke-Krus World Hyperinflation Table below, which first appeared in The Routledge Handbook of Major Events in Economic History (2013).
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Sunday, May 26, 2019
Global Multi-Market / Asset Charts Review / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Gary_Tanashian
First off, a wish to all readers for a happy Memorial Day weekend as we remember loved ones lost in battle and otherwise. Memorial is not a US thing, it’s an everybody thing.
Today we take a look at various markets and assets using daily charts of the associated ETFs.
The real work in determining the state of the markets going forward will be done by evaluating internals measures like sector leadership (e.g. our SOX>NDX>SPX leadership chain), inter-market and inter-asset ratios (e.g. our ongoing gold ratios analysis), macro indicators (e.g. the recent notable drop in inflation expectations) and a whole host of other hidden markers to be tracked and updated (NFTRH is constantly on that job looking forward to the potentials, as opposed to in review or in rear-view). Also, let’s not forget sentiment analysis, which led us to the current correction. It will also come into play going both ways in the weeks and months ahead.
But sometimes it’s fun to just check out the charts and see what we see.
Beginning right here in the US with the broad market, SPY is in a small potential Head & Shoulders pattern, with an alternate left shoulder should it turn out to be what self-important TAs like to call a “complex H&S”. That would create a larger H&S scenario with a lower target, which we’ll reserve for NFTRH if the time comes to activate this still unconfirmed H&S. The dashed neckline is shown for the little guy and should the big one come into play the black SMA 200 could act as a neckline there.
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Sunday, May 26, 2019
An Oil Shock Could Be the Black Swan That Finally Drives Gold Higher / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: MoneyMetals
Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.
Coming up the top trends forecaster Gerald Celente of the Trends Journal joins me to discuss a myriad of topics. Gerald gives us more insight on why the precious metals are struggling, why he recently changed his economic forecast and also shares why he believes a continuation of the rising tensions in both Venezuela and the Middle East could lead to a spike in oil prices that the world simply cannot afford. Don’t miss another wonderful interview with the great Gerald Celente, coming up after this week’s market update.
As global stock and commodity markets gyrate, gold and silver markets are gaining some safe haven strength.
Gold prices moved back into positive territory on Thursday but is little changed for week now. The yellow metal is up a slight 0.4% since last Friday’s close to trade at $1,284 per ounce.
Silver has been beaten down this spring but is at least showing some signs of life here during the later part of the week, or at the very least has appeared to stabilize a bit. The white metal is now up a 0.9% for the week to bring spot prices to $14.61 an ounce.
Turning to the platinum group metals, platinum registers a weekly loss of 2.2% to trade at $805. And finally, palladium shows a 0.7% decline to come in at $1,332 per ounce as of this Friday morning recording.
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Sunday, May 26, 2019
Crude Oil Bulls, Are You Serious About Arresting the Slide? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
We have said the bulls had a bad day on Wednesday. How would you rate their yesterday’s performance? Heck, they are not having a good day today either. Black gold is heading for the biggest weekly loss in 2019. Has the support fallen out from below? Where can we expect the decline to stop?
Let’s take a closer look at the chart below (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
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Sunday, May 26, 2019
Brexit Party Forces Theresa May to Resign, Boris Johnson Next Tory Prime Minister? / Politics / UK Politics
By: N_Walayat
When the European election results are announced Sunday, Nigel Farage's Brexit party looks set to win as many as 30 of the 73 seats whilst the Tory party under Theresa May are set to suffer an electoral bloodbath by winning as few as 6 seats, which would be harbinger for a disastrous outcome at the next General Election. Thus the Tory party had little choice in finally forcing an inept and crippled Prime Minister Theresa May to resign Friday, ending what amounts to a miserable 3 years that not only failed to achieve Brexit but that the past 3 years had failed to achieve anything of substance as contrary to some of the mainstream press commentary Theresa May was NO Margaret Thatcher, not coming anywhere close, who instead is probably the worst British Prime Minister in living memory.
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Saturday, May 25, 2019
IBM - Investing in AI Machine Intelligence Stocks / Companies / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Where to invest to profit from the exponential machine intelligence mega-trend. I have ranked these stocks in in terms of risk vs reward and volatility. Do remember that when investing in the stock market that your capital is at risk. There are NO SURE BETS!
If you've not already done so then watch my following video from November 2016 which illustrates why everything will start to change exponentially by 2022.
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Saturday, May 25, 2019
Seasonal Dysfunction: Why Generations of Gold and Silver Investors Are Having Such Difficulty / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: The_Gold_Report
Sector expert Michael Ballanger discusses the demotivating effects of current market trends. With great apology, I am late with this week's missive largely due to the arrival of boating season and the fierce need to secure a new vehicle, which should have taken (only) two days but didn't. Having arrived at the marina on Friday evening, I expected a rather smooth transition as it was the first year in four that I asked our local service fellow to do all of the end-of-year maintenance, instead of me draining the lines and winterizing the water tank and changing the engine oil and all of those things I loved to do in my 40s but that have become a royal pain in the ass twenty years later. Call it "geezer-itus" or "baby-boomer angst," I agreed to let the local marina service group do all those debilitating tasks and simply threw them the keys while shouting "See ya next spring!"
I fully expecting a boat functioning this past weekend in exactly the condition in which it was functioning last October. Well, with great deference to Mr. Murphy and that obnoxious law named after him, my lovely little Freshwater Pearl was a mess of the highest and most irritating order, floors most foul, upholstery seams ripped, and obvious dings and dots from the reentry-to-the-water exercise. However, what really set me off was that my most-excellent winch-powered dinghy caddy was nonfunctional, and after five hours with limited workspace, I removed what I thought was the faulty part.
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Saturday, May 25, 2019
Employment - The Good and the Bad of Job Automation / Economics / Employment
By: Patrick_Watson
People are worried robots will take their jobs. That’s a legitimate fear sometimes, but it’s not new. It is just another step in a process that started long ago.
The bigger question is whether job automation is good.
If we want the economy to grow, the math is pretty easy. It’s a two-factor equation:
- The number of available workers, multiplied by
- The value of goods and services the average worker produces.
Increase one or both of those and presto, GDP will rise. Automation helps raise the second one. But then it gets complicated.
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Saturday, May 25, 2019
Gold Mining Mid-Tier Stocks Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019
By: Zeal_LLC
The mid-tier gold miners’ stocks in the sweet spot for price-appreciation potential have been struggling in recent months, grinding lower with gold. Their strong early-year momentum has been sapped by recent stock-market euphoria. But gold-mining stocks are more important than ever for prudently diversifying portfolios. The mid-tiers’ recently-reported Q1’19 results reveal their fundamentals remain sound and bullish.
The wild market action in Q4’18 emphasized why investors shouldn’t overlook gold stocks. All portfolios need a 10% allocation in gold and its miners’ stocks! As the flagship S&P 500 broad-market stock index plunged 9.2% in December alone, nearly entering a new bear market, the leading mid-tier gold-stock ETF surged 13.7% higher that month. That was a warning shot across the bow that these markets are changing.
Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports. Required by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, these 10-Qs and 10-Ks contain the best fundamental data available to traders. They dispel all the sentiment distortions inevitably surrounding prevailing stock-price levels, revealing corporations’ underlying hard fundamental realities.
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Saturday, May 25, 2019
Buy This Pick-and-Shovel 5G Stock Before It Takes Off / Companies / Mobile Technology
By: Robert_Ross
Wireless technology has come a long way.
The first generation of wireless known as 1G was rolled out in the 1980s. The only thing a user could do with 1G was make a phone call.
At times, the call quality could rival that of two tin cans connected by a string.
But wireless tech has made huge advances since those early days.
About every 10 years we’ve seen a new generation of wireless—1G, 2G, 3G, and today’s 4G. Each was faster and more reliable than the previous generation.
Saturday, May 25, 2019
Rare Earths Sector ETF $REMX Booming Again On Trade War With China / Commodities / Rare Earths
By: Jeb_Handwerger
Summary
1)Rare earth critical mineral crisis heating up as China Retaliates against Trump Tariffs.
2)Rare Earth Shortage could cripple tech giants such as Apple and Tesla.
3)Rare Earth ETF $REMX was over $100 during last rare earth crisis in 2011 now its under $15.
4)If Chinese cut off rare earths, prices could skyrocket in parabolic rise.
5)China Controls Rare Earth Sector which was invented in USA.
Saturday, May 25, 2019
Patient Approach Remains Appropriate for Fed. How Will Gold React? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The Fed released the minutes from its last meeting. What are the Fed’s views on the economy, global risks and inflation? What do the learnings imply for the US monetary policy and in turn, the gold market?
Minutes Show That FOMC Members Are Still Patient
The minutes from the May FOMC meeting show that the Fed is still patient. The downside risks for the global economy diminished and the financial conditions improved. As a result, the US central bank decided to keep its patient approach to the monetary policy in place:
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Friday, May 24, 2019
China Hang Seng Stocks Index Collapses and Commodities / Stock-Markets / Chinese Stock Market
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The Chinese Hang Seng Index collapsed early this week to new recent lows. This breakdown in the Chinese major stock index highlights the anticipated fallout from the continued US/China trade war. Recent data from the Chinese property market and corporate bond markets suggest a broad slowdown in economic activity which may surprise many foreign investors in the weeks/months to come.
Partner this continued economic weakness with the EU Elections and the continued US/China trade issues and we almost have a perfect storm for commodities such as Oil, Copper and other industrial/transportation related shares. If the trade continues to collapse between the US/China while elections cause the general populations to “pause” in traditional spending habits, it would suggest that we could see a continued breakdown in the general commodity levels over the next 6~12+ months.
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Friday, May 24, 2019
Costco Corp. (COST): Finding Opportunity in Five Minutes or Less / Companies / Company Chart Analysis
By: EWI
Our FREE video shows how wave clarity is the first step to identifying a high-probability trade set-up.
Our chart of Costco Wholesale Corporation as of March 12. If today was March 12, could you assess within five minutes where this popular stock was headed next?
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Friday, May 24, 2019
How Free Bets Have Impacted the Online Casino Industry / Personal_Finance / Gambling
By: Submissions
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Friday, May 24, 2019
Stocks Topping, Dollar Up, Gold Getting Closer - AUDIO / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Chris Vermeulen joined us today. He believes that the stock market is topping out if it hasn’t already. This will lead to increased volatility and a move back to safe haven assets, i.e. gold. He believes that oil will break down briefly into the ’50s and then come roaring back shortly thereafter. The bigger and faster the decline, the fast the bounce back. Interest rates are headed lower.
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Friday, May 24, 2019
The Fed Is Caught Behind The Curve / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Avi_Gilburt
I have written many times about how the Fed follows the market and does not lead it. And, we are about to see yet another example of history’s lessons.
For those that followed our work over the years, you would know that we called for a top to the bond market on June 27, 2016, with the market striking its multi-year highs within a week of our call. Since that call, TLT dropped 22%, until we saw the bottoming structure develop in late 2018.
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Friday, May 24, 2019
This Ultimate Formula Will Help You Avoid Dividend Cutting Stocks / Companies / Dividends
By: Robert_Ross
Many of you probably don’t have a telephone at home.
I’m not talking about a cell phone. I’m talking about a phone plugged into the wall.
The US Health Department reports that only 6.5% of homes are landline only, and most of them are in rural areas.
One company that services these stalwart landline customers is CenturyLink (CTL). It’s not a high-growth business, but its stable customer base made it a prime target for income investors.
This was doubly true after CenturyLink spiked its annual dividend from $0.26 to $2.17 in 2008. That lifted the company’s dividend yield to a hefty 7%.