US Unemployment and Housing Market Trend Forecast

Housing-Market / US Housing Jun 04, 2019 - 10:43 AM GMT

A stable strong economy can further be seen in the unemployment statistic of just 3.8% marginal above the low of 3.7% and off of a recent high of 4%. As long as unemployment stays stable at around 4% then this should be supportive of house prices going forward.

This is the fourth in a series of articles that concludes in a new multi-year trend forecast for US house prices that seeks to replicate the accuracy of my last US House Prices trend forecast.

12 Jan 2013 - U.S. Housing Real Estate Market House Prices Trend Forecast 2013 to 2016)

US House Prices Forecast Conclusion - As you read this, the embryonic nominal bull market of 2012 is morphing into a real terms bull market of 2013, with each subsequent year expected to result in an accelerating multi-year trend that will likely see average prices rise by over 30% by early 2016, which translates into a precise house prices forecast based on the most recent Case-Shiller House Price Index (CSXR) of 158.8 (Oct 2012 - released 26th Dec 2012) targeting a rise to 207 by early 2016 (+30.4%).

And here's how the US house prices trend forecast concluded early 2016, resulting in only a -2.5% deviation against the forecast so proving remarkably accurate, as had my preceding forecast during the bear market.

Which brings is to the present. Where despite all of the mainstream media noise and the usual perma doom mantra, the US housing bull market has continued to rage on upwards all the way to NEW ALL TIME HIGHS!

U.S. House Prices Analysis and Trend Forecast 2019 to 2021

The whole of this analysis has first been made available to Patrons who support my work: https://www.patreon.com/posts/us-house-prices-26484438

Current State
Momentum Analysis
US ECONOMY - GDP
Unemployment
Inflation
Producer Prices Index
Yield Curve
US Debt
QE4EVER!
DEMOGRAPHICS
US Home Builders Index (XHB)
US Housing Market Real Terms BUY / SELL Indicator
US House Prices 2019 to 2021 Trend Forecast Conclusion
Peering into the Mists of Time

So for immediate First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Scheduled Analysis :

China Stock Market SSEC
UK Housing market analysis
Betting on the Tory Leadership Contest
Stock Market Trend Forecast June 2019 Update
Machine Intelligence Investing stocks sub sector analysis

Recent Analysis:

So again for immediate First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

And ensure you are subscribed to my FREE Newsletter to get my public analysis in your email in box (only requirement is an email address).

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

The Market Oracle is a FREE Financial Markets Forecasting & Analysis web-site.
(c) 2005-2024 MarketOracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd) - Market Oracle Ltd asserts copyright on all articles authored by our editorial team and all comments posted. Any and all information provided within the web-site, is for general information purposes only and Market Oracle Ltd do not warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of any information provided on this site. nor is or shall be deemed to constitute, financial or any other advice or recommendation by us. and are also not meant to be investment advice or solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. We do not give investment advice and our comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to enter into a market position either stock, option, futures contract, bonds, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. We recommend that independent professional advice is obtained before you make any investment or trading decisions. By using this site you agree to this sites Terms of Use. From time to time we promote or endorse certain products / services that we believe are worthy of your time and attention. In return for that endorsement and only in the cases where you purchase directly though us may we be compensated by the producers of those products.