Sunday, August 04, 2019
Trade Tariff Economic Damage Spreading in US, China within Target in H2 2019 / Economics / China US Conflict
By: Dan_Steinbock
In the second half of 2019, US economic prospects will soften, despite the Fed rate cut, whereas Chinese growth target is likely to prevail. It’s time to prepare for diminished global economic prospects in 2019-20.After an important meeting of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC), participants said that China seeks to make its fiscal policy more effective and to maintain “reasonably ample” liquidity.
Instead of resorting to a stimulus in the real estate market, the emphasis will be on “proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy.” It is a challenging balancing act, but the right stance in the right time.
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Sunday, August 04, 2019
Why Trump’s Low-dollar Economic Plan Won’t Work / Economics / US Economy
By: Richard_Mills
The slowdown in the United States, and throughout the world, has led many to speculate that the time has come for an intervention in the US economy.
Despite a healthy stock market and the economy barreling along at near full employment, persistent negative economic indicators have policymakers twitching for some kind of response.
On Friday US Gross Domestic Product numbers failed to inspire. American GDP grew just 2.1% in the second quarter, compared to a 3.1% gain in Q1. One of the most important takeaways from the official report card on the economy, was the value of inventories, or goods waiting to be sold. It shrank by $44.3 billion, Marketwatch reported, knocking a full percentage point off GDP.
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Sunday, August 04, 2019
Palladium Collapses After Double-Top From Early July 2019 / Commodities / Palladium
By: Chris_Vermeulen
It was almost like Palladium traders followed our research to the letter when the trend reversed on July 11, 2019. Our research team issued a report indicating a Double-Top pattern was setting up in Palladium on July 3, 2019. At that time, our proprietary cycle indicators and our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling systems suggested a large downside price swing was highly likely.
Saturday, August 03, 2019
GlaxoSmithKline - GSK Life Extension Pharma Stock Investing / Companies / Investing 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
We are currently galloping full speed along an exponential curve that unlike the neural nets of the 1990's, that promised a lot but delivered very little, this time it really looks like we are on the verge of AI success, not only that but it heralds changes in every aspect of our lives most of which we cannot even imagine today, hence the term the singularity is often used, the AI event horizon beyond which we cannot see.
My latest analysis in this series focuses on how to profit and capitalise on the unfolding machine intelligence driven mega-trend through investing in leveraged to AI Human Life Extension stocks.
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Saturday, August 03, 2019
Trade Tariffs, Rate Cuts, and Devaluation Whispers Set Up Gold & Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.
Coming up Frank Holmes of US Global Investors joins me to talk about gold, the key driver that will likely take it higher and why we need to be paying more attention to the trendlines than the headlines. Don’t miss another great conversation with the well-traveled and highly respected Frank Holmes, coming up after this week’s market update.
Well, after months of presidential complaining, tweeting, and pressuring, Donald Trump finally got a rate cut from the Fed.
A lower interest rate was supposed to stimulate the stock market and make the dollar cheaper versus the currencies of exporting countries -- thereby making U.S. products more competitive according to Trumponomics. Instead, stocks fell and the U.S. Dollar Index broke out to a two-year high following the Federal Reserve’s policy move on Wednesday.
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Saturday, August 03, 2019
Gold Stocks Seasonal Autumn Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019
By: Zeal_LLC
The gold miners’ stocks have surged dramatically this summer, catapulted higher by gold’s major bull-market breakout. That atypical strength bucking the normal summer-doldrums slump has carried this sector right back to its traditional strong season. That begins with a robust autumn rally starting in late summers. This year’s autumn-rally setup is very unusual, but investment buying could still fuel further gains.
Seasonality is the tendency for prices to exhibit recurring patterns at certain times during the calendar year. While seasonality doesn’t drive price action, it quantifies annually-repeating behavior driven by sentiment, technicals, and fundamentals. We humans are creatures of habit and herd, which naturally colors our trading decisions. The calendar year’s passage affects the timing and intensity of buying and selling.
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Saturday, August 03, 2019
Most Common Mistakes Made in Escape Rooms / Personal_Finance / Holidays
By: Hillary_Walker
Escape room adventures offer refreshing group entertainment. Like any collective activities, they have their own list of typical errors linked to failed collaboration. Consult our list of five escape room sins before embarking on your next adventure. Newbies and fans alike will benefit from bearing these caveats in mind.
More and more escape rooms are opening all around the world. The Japanese invention is now entertaining people in Asia, USA, Australia, and Europe. Britons have also recognized its benefits. You may find an escape room in London UK at https://komnata.co.uk/london/, with many narratives and themes to pick from. Here are the main things you should try to avoid in any kind of escape room adventure.
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Saturday, August 03, 2019
1. Introduction to Artificial Intelligence - AI Getting Started Course for Beginners / InvestorEducation / AI
By: Adnaan_Walayat
Want to get started in Artificial Intelligence? We'll here is the first video in my 10 part course for beginners that covers what you need to know to get started in AI. By the end of which you will be ready to progress onto the next level, creating your own neural networks, where I am already working on the next series of videos as a follow from this beginners course covering:
- Introduction to Artificial Intelligence
- Defining Artificial Intelligence: what is a neural network?
- Components of a neural network
- Gradient descent: how machines learn
- The Law of Accelerating Returns
- AI in image recognition
- Medical uses of AI
- The Singularity: rise of the super intelligence
- Public perception of AI
- AI in society
Friday, August 02, 2019
Trump Trade Tariffs US War with China Mega-trend Impact on Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / China US Conflict
By: Nadeem_Walayat
For some reason there are still mainstream media journalists out there going on about how China is winning the trade war against the US. Perhaps they just want to pump out any propaganda that hurts trumps re-election prospects? Or more likely are clueless automatons whose primary purpose is to regurgitate the editorial line of media out fits they represent. Anyway they are still just as wrong as they have been for the duration of the Trump presidency.
Friday, August 02, 2019
Small Cap Stocks Setup A Very Rare & Interesting Price Pattern / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our researchers have identified a very rare type of price pattern that is typically associated with explosive trend changes and trends. We call this type of pattern a “Sandwich” pattern because of how price reacts within a range. The IWM, Russell 2000 ETF, is illustrating a nearly perfect example of this pattern right now.
Daily IWM chart (Russell 2000 Small Cap Index)
This close up view of the Daily IWM chart highlights the Sandwich pattern over the most recent 5 trading days and how price enters this volatile period, rotates around within a range, then settles near the upper or lower end of the range before a price breakout occurs. Notice the earlier Sandwich pattern setup and how price settled near the bottom of the range before a downside price leg pushed the price much lower.
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Friday, August 02, 2019
Facebook Libra Is Nothing More than a Nice Idea / Currencies / BlockChain
By: John_Mauldin
What kind of money will we use in the future?
The answer might seem obvious: dollars, euros, yen, and other government-issued fiat currencies.
Most of us have never known anything else. Yet these currencies aren’t natural phenomena.
People created them. People can also abandon them for something else, just as they abandoned older currencies.
There are good reasons to think we could once again see some fiat currencies disappear. If so, what “something else” will be money in the future?
Friday, August 02, 2019
Post FED US Bond Market Yield Spread Falls Further: Risk Aversion is at the Door / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: QUANTO
All Powell needed to do was cut rates and to soften the blow on the short end of the curve, he needed to speak of the strong economy and that would have controlled the 1 month and 3 month and 2 year yields. Instead he ended up confusing about recovery and talking of nonsensicall comical terms like insurance cut etc. These are jargons that one should never use.
The reaction from the bond market was immediate as the 1 month and 3 month yield jumped sharply. Money was flowing out to the long end which is exactly what Powell didnt want to happen when he said "inflation gets baked in to bond yields". Even as he was saying, that is what was happening. We take a look at some of the charts which define and go beyond normal technical and trend lines for forex. We have always suggested: NEVER TRADE FOREX ON TECHNICAL INDICATORS. THEY ARE LAGGING. TO LOOK BACK AND TRADE FORWARD IS FOOLISHNESS.
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Friday, August 02, 2019
The Stock Market Fell and Volatility Spiked. What’s Next / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
The S&P fell Thursday on trade war-related news and volatility spiked. Today’s headlines:
- More economic weakness in manufacturing.
- Long streak of bad economic surprises
- Stock market’s volatility spiked
- AAII sentiment
- Short term bounce ahead for stocks?
Friday, August 02, 2019
No Sign Yet of Cyclical Inflation and the Gold Miners Don’t Mind a Bit / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Gary_Tanashian
Contrary to majority opinion, gold and especially the gold mining stocks that leverage its macro status are not about inflation, especially cyclical inflation that runs with a positive economy.
Making an appropriate return after a few months on hiatus, ladies and gentlemen… the Macrocosm.
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Friday, August 02, 2019
After Fed Disappoints, Will Trump Initiate Currency Intervention? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: MoneyMetals
Following months of cajoling by the White House, the Federal Reserve finally cut its benchmark interest rate. However, the reaction in equity and currency markets was not the one President Donald Trump wanted – or many traders anticipated.
The Trump administration wants the Fed to help drive the fiat U.S. dollar lower versus foreign currencies, especially those of major exporting countries.
Instead, the U.S. Dollar Index rallied throughout July ahead of the expected rate cut and continued rallying after Fed chairman Jerome Powell made it official on Wednesday.
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Friday, August 02, 2019
Precious Metals React To Fed Shockwaves – Ready For Next Move / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
On July 31, 2019, the US Federal Reserve decreased the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) by 25 basis points. We believe the US Fed was pushed to take this action for three reasons that are directly related to the fear and greed that is abundant in the global markets.
Reason #1 Fed Had To Cut Rates
First, the US Fed is very concerned that the US housing market has stagnated and weakened over the past 16+ months. The Fed has pushed the FFR towards our modeling system’s upper boundary (2.0 to 2.25) many months ago and this has pushed the housing market over a supply/demand precipice that may already be too far gone for a substantial recovery. The US Fed, attempting to prevent another housing market collapse, must attempt to ease lending in an attempt to spark new real estate activity.
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Thursday, August 01, 2019
Silver Price Tragets for 2019 - Forecast Update (1/2) / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Silver, the precious metals coiled swing has just given us a taste of what to expect as the price shot higher during July, last trading at $16,56, up 12% since my analysis of 10th June ($14.74). Silver had been lagging the gold price all year, even entering into a downtrend early July that resolved in a $2, 15% surge higher as the following Silver / Gold graph illustrates.
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Thursday, August 01, 2019
US Yield Curve Inverted Months Earlier than Most Think / Interest-Rates / Inverted Yield Curve
By: John_Mauldin
The inverted yield curve is one of the more reliable recession indicators.
I discussed it at length last December. At that point, we had not yet seen a full inversion. Now we have, and it appears the curve was “inverted” back then, and we just didn’t know it.
The Powell Fed spent 2018 gradually raising rates and reducing the balance sheet assets it had accumulated in the QE years.
This amounted to an additional tightening. In fact, the balance sheet reduction may have had more impactthan lower rates.
Now if you assume, as Morgan Stanley does, every $200B balance sheet reduction is equivalent to another 0.25% rate increase, which I think is reasonable, then the curve effectively inverted months earlier than most now think.
Thursday, August 01, 2019
Climate Change and the Emergent Global Ideology / Politics / Climate Change
By: Mark_Blair
whether one is or is not convinced of anthropogenic global warming just isn’t the point. The point is that it’s the emergent global ideology, the perfect opportunity for discredited communists and bureaucrats to posture as saviors. (And we’ll discuss below The Other (Actual) Environmental Emergency: species loss, groundwater depletion, plastics, peak oil.)
But there’s a huge fly in the ointment: the west’s economic dependence on China, the brutal capit-ommunist dictatorship that keeps us in tube socks. China is – seems to be – in the final phase of biggie big big currency debasement.
Thursday, August 01, 2019
Stock Market Bearish Signs from the Fed, Economy, and Volume / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
Stocks fell Wednesday as the Fed cut interest rates. Today’s headlines:
- Rate cut and stocks
- The economic expansion cycle
- Manufacturing weakness
- Stock market’s volume
- U.S. Dollar breakout