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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: China US Conflict

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Politics

Monday, September 19, 2022

China Could Deliver the MOTHER of ALL BLACK SWAN's! / Politics / China US Conflict

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Continuing the trend trajectory of China's collapsing insane ponzi property market that is triggering bank runs and CCP crackdowns including the deployment of tanks to meet protesting bank customers who are systematically having their lifetime savings stolen, converted from bank deposits into risky investments in bankrupt developers, then this trend towards financial collapse could result in the mother of all Black Swan events that is not on anyone's radar which is that Chairman Xi Mao Jinping literally presses the RESET button in a new GREAT LEAP BACKWARDS! THAT CHINA COULD ONCE MORE TURN FULL BLOWN COMMUNIST! The slaves got a taste of CCP capitalism which they then erased ALL of the masses hard earned wealth on the click of a mouse button.

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Politics

Tuesday, May 24, 2022

Why Ray Dalio is WRONG About China - Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order / Politics / China US Conflict

By: Nadeem_Walayat

A number of patrons mentioned Ray Dalio and his new book "Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order" and asked for my opinion, In respect of which Ray Dalio posted a high production 40 minute youtube video of the same title.

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Politics

Sunday, October 10, 2021

Can US Save Taiwan From China? Taiwan Strait Naval Battle - PLA vs 7th Fleet War Game Simulation / Politics / China US Conflict

By: N_Walayat

China over the past week has been ramping up it's incursions into Taiwanese air space culminating with Emperor Xi Jinping reiterating that Taiwan is a province of China and will reunify with the mainland either by peaceful means or by force. Whilst recently the US deployed 3 carrier groups accompanied by Britain's sole aircraft carrier near Taiwan though not in the Straits.

This war game simulation pits the Chinese PLA Navy against the US 7th Fleet that comprises 70 war ships including 2 air craft carriers, also deployed is a third carrier group with the objective of deterring the Chinese Navy from attacking Taiwan.

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Politics

Saturday, October 09, 2021

US China War over Taiwan Simulation 2021, Invasion Forecast - Who Will Win? / Politics / China US Conflict

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The War with China Mega-trend. If you have been following my analysis over the past 5 years then you will know that I expect a war with China is being inevitable with many flashpoint's for an hot war likely culminating in the nuking of the spratly Islands in the South China Sea.

This simulation covers what is most probable outcome if China launched an all out assault to seize Taiwan and the US chose to intervened with determined force i.e. its 7th Fleet comprising 2 air craft carriers and about 70 ships to deter such an attack.

So who would win such an engagement of largely naval forces on an epic scale?

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Politics

Thursday, September 30, 2021

America’s Revolving-Door Politics Behind the Fall of US-Sino Ties / Politics / China US Conflict

By: Dan_Steinbock


The US-Sino ties plunged in the Trump era, but the downfall has intensified in the Biden era. Without policy shifts, the tensions, fueled by defense contractors, translate to arms races and elevated nuclear risks in Asia.

In just nine months, Biden’s net ratings have plunged by a stunning 20 percent, which leaves him behind all U.S. postwar presidents except for Trump, many of whose policies his White House has embraced. Today, Biden’s performance divides the nation, just as Trump’s did before him.

True, Biden pledged to end America’s longest war in Afghanistan. That does not spell end to the “forever wars.” It only means shifts of resource allocations to new regions.  Last June, Bernie Sanders warned that such policies could "start another Cold War” against China.

The global challenges America faces – climate change, pandemics, nuclear proliferation, massive economic inequality, corruption and authoritarianism – are shared challenges. They cannot be overcome unilaterally, Sanders warned. It is “distressing and dangerous that a fast-growing consensus is emerging in Washington that views the U.S.-Chinese relationship as a zero-sum economic and military struggle.”
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Politics

Monday, September 07, 2020

From Trump’s TikTok Mess to US Tech Cold War against China / Politics / China US Conflict

By: Dan_Steinbock

As the Trump administration is expanding trade wars, which could derail global recovery, the White House is targeting Chinese innovators thus fostering US national champions under the pretext of ‘national security.’         

In the early 2010s, an aspiring Chinese internet entrepreneur Zhang Yiming launched ByteDance, while developing a video sharing platform. After success in China, he began to internationalize TikTok.

To avoid conflict in national jurisdictions, Zhang had TikTok and its Chinese version Douying run on separate servers. TikTok's data collection is similar to that of major US social media and certainly less intrusive than Facebook’s.

By August, Douying had over 500 million active users, while TikTok surpassed 1 billion users worldwide in barely four years. To manage the global concern, Zhang hired a Disney executive to head TikTok and oversee its parent ByteDance. Backed by the largest US and Japanese financial giants, the parent was valued at $75 billion; the most valuable startup worldwide.

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Politics

Tuesday, August 18, 2020

From Trump’s TikTok Mess to Technology War against China / Politics / China US Conflict

By: Dan_Steinbock

As the US economy is expanding trade wars, which will derail global recovery, the Trump White House is targeting Chinese innovators thus fostering US national champions under the pretext of ‘national security.                    

In the early 2010s, an aspiring Chinese internet entrepreneur Zhang Yiming launched ByteDance, while developing a video sharing platform. After success in China, he began to internationalize TikTok.

To avoid conflict in national jurisdictions, Zhang had TikTok and its Chinese version Douying run on separate servers. TikTok's data collection is similar to that of major US social media and certainly less intrusive than Facebook’s.

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Politics

Wednesday, June 10, 2020

Trump's Final Gamble: From Chinagate to Hybrid Wars / Politics / China US Conflict

By: Dan_Steinbock

The disastrous failure of the Trump administration to contain COVID-19 will result in catastrophic 2nd quarter data. As a result, Trump is risking his re-election on domestic unrest, fatal geopolitics and a global depression.

The cold reality is that the Trump administration learned about the virus already on January 3, when CDC Director Dr. Robert R. Redfield informed Secretary of Health Alex Azar that China had discovered a new coronavirus. Yet no mobilization was initiated until toward late March (see my report here):

Indeed, the Trump White House missed three opportunities to contain the virus outbreak; in January (between CDC alert and WHO’s international emergency), the 1st quarter (between the WHO emergency and the pandemic alert) and the 2nd quarter (since social distancing began 6-8 weeks late and inadequately).

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Politics

Friday, May 01, 2020

Coronavirus Wuhan Bio Lab Origins Paving Way for US War with China / Politics / China US Conflict

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The CCP opened one of their desk drawers marked "Do Not Open" to reveal that the number of total deaths is actually 50% higher than previously reported. Expect more such revisions upwards though likely we will never know the true number since many bodies were disposed off in mass cremations, and I would not be surprised if the real number was at least 5 times higher than Beijing propaganda, all of which acts as accelerant on the War with China mega-trend as what the West is experiencing does not match that which China reported to the world to expect for which there will be a reckoning with China. As is the focus of my latest video based on excerpted analysis from my article made available to Patrons on the 6th of April.

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Politics

Wednesday, April 29, 2020

US Paving the Way for War with China / Politics / China US Conflict

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Meanwhile the CCP opened one of their desk drawers marked "Do Not Open" to reveal that the number of total deaths is actually 50% higher than previously reported. Expect more such revisions upwards though likely we will never know the true number since many bodies were disposed off in mass cremations, and I would not be surprised if the real number was at least 5 times higher than Beijing propaganda, all of which acts as accelerant on the War with China mega-trend as what the West is experiencing does not match that which China reported to the world to expect for which there will be a reckoning with China. As is the focus of my latest video based on excerpted analysis from my article made available to Patrons on the 6th of April.

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Politics

Friday, April 17, 2020

Coronavirus Attack is America's Pearl Harbor Moment - US Heading for War in South China Sea / Politics / China US Conflict

By: Nadeem_Walayat

WAR WITH CHINA MEGA-TREND

CHINA LIED ABOUT EVERYTHING! NUMBER OF INFECTED, NUMBER OF DEATHS THAT WERE LIKELY MORE THAN FIVES TIMES THAT WHICH THEY REPORTED TO THE WORLD!

If you have been following my analysis for sometime then you will be aware that one of the key mega-trend drivers of our time is the War with China mega-trend that I set forth in the following two pieces of in-depth analysis of what I expected to follow that were posted BEFORE Trump took office, a TREND that remains firmly in progress encompassing Trade, Economic, Cyber, Market, Corporate, Territory, Military and Nuclear!

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Politics

Monday, April 06, 2020

Coronavirus is America's "Pearl Harbour" Moment, There Will be a Reckoning With China / Politics / China US Conflict

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Coronavirus catastrophe continues to unfold which makes a mockery of all those from the President downwards who used to peddle the line that it was not much worse than the flu. Well whilst many including the President have since changed their tune, however a significant number of people continue to not take it seriously stating that the high death rate is as a consequence of lack of testing..

However, if the coronavirus was little worse than the flu then as the US has now increased testing to over 100,000 per day then the case fatality rate should be falling. But that's not what's happening as the more the US tests then the higher the death rate climbs each day and each week.

So the problem with the not much worse than the flu assumption is that the Case Fatality Rates are INCREASING WITH MORE TESTING!

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Economics

Tuesday, November 19, 2019

China's Grand Plan to Take Over the World / Economics / China US Conflict

By: John_Mauldin

When the US and ultimately the rest of the Western world began to engage China, resulting in China finally being allowed into the World Trade Organization in the early 2000s, no one really expected the outcomes we see today.

There is no simple disengagement path, given the scope of economic and legal entanglements. This isn’t a “trade” we can simply walk away from.

But it is also one that, if allowed to continue in its current form, could lead to a loss of personal freedom for Western civilization. It really is that much of an existential question.

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Politics

Tuesday, November 05, 2019

China Is an Underrated Threat to the World / Politics / China US Conflict

By: John_Mauldin

In Hong Kong, somewhere between 1–2 million people (out of a 7+ million population) have taken to the streets protesting an extradition bill proposed by Beijing.

These protests have been ongoing and persistent. That the extradition bill has now been withdrawn is seemingly not enough to satisfy a smaller but active protest group.

And then came the furor over the NBA. The general manager of the Houston Rockets, Daryl Morey, tweeted out a small and rather innocuous message of support for the Hong Kong protesters.

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Politics

Saturday, September 14, 2019

War Gaming the US-China Trade War / Politics / China US Conflict

By: John_Mauldin

By Justin Spittler: People respond to incentives. So do national governments. This is foundational to both economics and geopolitics.
Carefully examining each side’s incentives can illuminate how a conflict will end. No one has infinite choices. They choose from limited options.

That applies to the US-China trade war, which is right now one of our top economic issues. So let’s think through what the players really want, and what each can actually do.

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Economics

Sunday, August 04, 2019

Trade Tariff Economic Damage Spreading in US, China within Target in H2 2019 / Economics / China US Conflict

By: Dan_Steinbock

In the second half of 2019, US economic prospects will soften, despite the Fed rate cut, whereas Chinese growth target is likely to prevail. It’s time to prepare for diminished global economic prospects in 2019-20.

After an important meeting of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC), participants said that China seeks to make its fiscal policy more effective and to maintain “reasonably ample” liquidity.

Instead of resorting to a stimulus in the real estate market, the emphasis will be on “proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy.” It is a challenging balancing act, but the right stance in the right time.
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Stock-Markets

Friday, August 02, 2019

Trump Trade Tariffs US War with China Mega-trend Impact on Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / China US Conflict

By: Nadeem_Walayat

For some reason there are still mainstream media journalists out there going on about how China is winning the trade war against the US. Perhaps they just want to pump out any propaganda that hurts trumps re-election prospects? Or more likely are clueless automatons whose primary purpose is to regurgitate the editorial line of media out fits they represent. Anyway they are still just as wrong as they have been for the duration of the Trump presidency.

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Politics

Sunday, June 16, 2019

US China War - Thucydides Trap and gold / Politics / China US Conflict

By: Richard_Mills

When an emerging power attempts to supplant a hegemonic power in international politics, major conflict often ensues. This is the definition of “The Thucydides Trap” as explained in a recent op-ed piece in The Japan Times.

The Thucydides Trap (pronounced “thu”, like you have a heavy lisp + sid + idees) is a term invented by Graham Allison, a professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government. Alison has been saying since 2015 that war between a rising power, China, and an established power, the United States, is inevitable, based on historical examples. The argument is fleshed out in his book, 'Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’sTrap?'

Allison’s Thucydides Trap has become a popular topic of conversation among the chattering classes in these troubling times in America, especially with a loose cannon like Trump as the tweeter-in-chief who has the keys to the nuclear button. As positions in the trade dispute get more entrenched, and issues like Huawei crop up, many are talking about a march to war with a new adversary: China.

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Economics

Wednesday, May 29, 2019

US is Winning Trade War with China...for Now / Economics / China US Conflict

By: Richard_Mills

The ongoing battle between the United States and China for economic supremacy isn’t only being fought in the gilded ballrooms of Washington, as trade negotiators from either side parry over automobile parts content, intellectual property rights, government subsidies and the like.

Casualties and victories are also borne out over the decks of hulking freighters that carry the commodities which make up the nuts and bolts of international trade.

Indeed, shipping statistics are often sought by economics and traders trying to predict the health of a country’s economy or the world economy. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is one such leading indicator. Another is the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). PMIs are a monthly survey of supply chain managers across 19 industries. An economy with a PMI of over 50 is considered to be growing; under 50 means an economy is treading water or possibly drowning.

This article is concerned with the Baltic Dry Index and other shipping statistics - such as cargo volumes through West Coast ports - that we can use to determine who, at this stage, China or the US, is winning the trade war.

The overall conclusion we, at Ahead of the Herd, came up with, is that the United States is winning, in terms of raw economic data, but at a cost to both economies of roughly $165 billion in two-way trade. The losers also include US consumers who are paying more for imported goods, and companies in both countries that can’t afford 25% tariffs for an extended period of time.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, May 13, 2019

Stock Market US China Trade War Panic - Video / Stock-Markets / China US Conflict

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Just as the mainstream media had gotten used to the stock market rallying towards new all time highs into the end of April. Suddenly, out of the blue TRADE WAR PANIC hits the markets and apparently is responsible for the ongoing downturn in the US and world general stock market indices. This illustrates the way the mainstream media tends to work where the big news story of the day is used to explain the direction of a market, with the same news usually spinned as an explanation for either when the market goes up or down! And Mays big news story to explain the downswing is the latest saga in the US / China trade war, namely increased tariffs from 10% to 25% to kick on $200 billion of Chinese goods today (Friday 10th May) triggered by China trying to pull a fast one on the US by backtracking on earlier promises, which illustrates that NO ONE can trust what China says, not even the worlds Super Power!

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