Saturday, April 29, 2023
Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
It's CPI Tuesday! We usually get a fake out move going into CPI then a reversal soon after which given that the market has been falling since the 6th of March into CPI data release then we should be setting up for a reversal higher some time after release of CP LIE which chimes with my end of the correction expectations given that both primary (3900) and secondary (3820) correction targets have been fulfilled.
Last month my CPI forecast table suggested to expect 6.28% vs actual of 6.4%. For February the table expects a sharp drop to 5.66% vs consensus of 6%, actual is probably going to be somewhere between 5.66% and 6%, so a net positive CPI data release should give weight to the next Fed rate hike being 0,25% instead of 0.5%, with the really big CPI drop coming on April's data release after which I expect inflation will become more sticky.
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Saturday, April 29, 2023
Corporate Bonds: "The Next Shoe to Drop" / Interest-Rates / Corporate Bonds
By: EWI
"The neckline has been broken over the last few days"
A "calamity" is likely ahead for corporate bonds, says our head of global research, Murray Gunn.
Some of Murray's analysis involves the head and shoulders, a classic technical chart pattern. In case you're unfamiliar with it, here's an illustration along with an explanation from one of our past publications:
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Saturday, April 29, 2023
Could the Debt Ceiling Drama Uplift Gold Price? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: Submissions
While the 2011 analog paints an optimistic portrait for gold, silver and mining stocks, a re-enactment of the last debacle is unlikely to unfold this time around. Back then, gold soared amid the debt ceiling chaos, while the USD Index was a major casualty. And while it’s possible lawmakers could ignite a similar event, most learn from their past mistakes.For example, while bloated stock valuations were the Black Swan in 2000, the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) was a housing market phenomenon, while the 2020 pandemic was a health scare. As a result, different catalysts often cause distress, and when this recession arrives, it will likely be driven by something investors least expect.
So, with the debt ceiling drama highly anticipated, it reduces the odds of the event unfolding in line with investors’ expectations. Therefore, it’s likely more semblance than substance, and the bulk of the PMs’ rallies should be in the rearview.
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Saturday, April 29, 2023
Gold Price Erased Its April Rally – What’s Next? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: P_Radomski_CFA
April had started with gold at $1,990, then gold moved as high as $2,063.40, and yesterday, it closed at $1,999. At the moment of writing these words, gold futures (because that’s what you see on the above chart) are trading at $1,993.
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Friday, April 28, 2023
Quantum AI Tech Stocks Portfolio / Companies / Investing 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Despite the stock market falling as expected many target stocks have stubbornly resisted correcting to any significant degree which is probably due to flight to safety to AI tech stocks, the likes of Nvidia, AVGO, TSMC whilst others appear to have fully embraced the panic and fallen hard such as GPN where I was already over invested to 128% going into the correction but now after the free fall below $100 stand at 150% invested, Further across the board mostly small buys have lifted my exposure to 87.8% invested 12.2% cash accumulating into Google, Amazon, Qualcom, Micron, IBM, JNJ Pfizer, and higher risk stocks - GPN, KLAC, CARA, ULH. amongst others.
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Thursday, April 27, 2023
Stock Market Trend to New Bull Market High / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Current Trend
The S&P remains in a downtrend i.e. lower highs and lows and thus continues to target a break of 3800 on the short-term basis. In terms of swings the correction could extend to as deep as 3745 though I doubt it will go that low, more likely will bounce around between 3890 and 3780 for a few days.
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Thursday, April 27, 2023
Are you invested in 4D printing? / Companies / 3d Printing
By: Stephen_McBride
What happened to 3D printing stocks?... This major upgrade breathes new life into 3D printing… “Smart materials” could unlock 4D printing… Plus, an easy way to profit from this megatrend…
- Is 3D printing dead?
A decade ago, “3D printing” was the hottest buzzword on the planet. Investors piled in… and 3D-printing stocks took off like a rocket.
3D Systems (DDD)—a leading 3D-printing company at the time—soared 1,000% between late 2011 and early 2014.
Thursday, April 27, 2023
Never bet Bgainst America unless… / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2023
By: Stephen_McBride
Warren Buffett’s latest move might surprise you… US stocks are passing the torch... Plus, a dead-simple way to invest in this big shift…
- When Warren Buffett makes an unusual move… pay attention.
Buffett is likely the best investor of all time.
His firm Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) delivered an average annual return of 20% from 1965 to 2022, which turned a $1,000 investment into $38 million.
Buffett is known for buying large stakes in iconic American companies. He’s invested billions of dollars into brands like Apple (AAPL), Coca-Cola (KO), and American Express (AXP).
Thursday, April 27, 2023
Three Reasons to Buy Shares in abrdn / Companies / Corporate News
By: Sumeet_Manhas
abrdn, the UK’s largest active asset manager, could be on the cusp of rewarding investors with substantial growth. The FTSE 100 firm’s share price has risen by 40% since October 2022, after a planned return of capital to investors helped reinstate the company’s market capitalisation to approximately $4 billion.
abrdn’s stock offers a 7.5% dividend yield, and many expect the yield to maintain or better this market-beating ratio. As such, the Edinburgh-based company is an attractive prospect to investors for the coming year.
Tuesday, April 18, 2023
US Treasury Bond Market Yield Curve / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Nadeem_Walayat
That was one hell off a drop in the 2 year yield yesterday, went straight from 5% to 4%. Now US rates are on par with where they were when the S&P was trading at 4200, of course it's not as simple as that, the rate fell in response to the Fed bailout of the banking crime syndicate. Still this should be positive for stocks.
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Tuesday, April 18, 2023
Destabilizing Debt Ensures the Financial Crisis Has Just Begun / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2023
By: Michael_Pento
The debt-disabled U.S. economy cannot withstand the surge in borrowing costs, and the reduction in
money supply growth necessary to combat the record-high inflation suffered over the past few years.
Our beloved U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said she believes the American economy remains
strong and its banking system is resilient. That is, if you close your mind and overlook the recent
bankruptcy of three financial institutions. Keep in mind this is the same person who assured us that we
would never see another financial crisis in our lifetime. So, it is self-serving for her to deflect attention
away from the economic meltdown that is on the horizon.
Tuesday, April 18, 2023
Financial Advisors Take Heat for Market Losses (Will Anger Intensify?) / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest
By: EWI
Was 2022 an aberration for the 60/40 allocation?
Many financial advisors steer clients who are willing to take some risk toward a 60% stocks / 40% bonds portfolio.
Alas, investors who followed that strategy in 2022 saw the value of their portfolios decrease substantially.
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Tuesday, April 18, 2023
Stock Market Sucking in Buyers / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 bears missed a good intraday opportunity after winning for 6 hrs in the regular session. For all the market breadth limping along, it was Russell 2000, financials and industrials with materials that did well, no matter what energy, precious metals and cryptos see on the horizon.
Bearish divergencies in advancing-declining issues, new high-new lows, even merely stocks above the 50-day moving averages in S&P 500 and Nasdaq – amply described yesterday together with earnings, job market and manufacturing (LEIs) data ahead, haven‘t invalidated the medium-term bearish case for stocks. For all the shrinking liquidity talked, this rally is proceeding – sell in May and go away“ seasonal effect would be weaker than usual.
(…) Disruptive tech (AI driving semiconductors) remains well placed. … So, we have tech stocks to outperform value in the current low growth environment, would the thinking go, however if you check market breadth in Nasdaq, the bearish divergence in the making is even worse than in S&P 500. It‘s the big names and semiconductors holding it up, while advance-decline line and new highs-new lows are largely struggling.
Tuesday, April 18, 2023
The evolution of the BMW M6 with a glimpse of technological progress / Personal_Finance / Motoring
By: Sumeet_Manhas
The 1986 BMW M635 CSi E24 is easily recognizable due to its shark-nose front end and angular interior. For car enthusiasts who appreciate classic automobiles, the initial model of the BMW M6 E24 is a valuable gem. This particular model stands out for having been equipped with an exceptional powertrain - the revered 286bhp producing M88/3 engine. Derived straight from BMW's initial generation of their iconic line up which included everything revolving around a special twin-cam-six named optioned-up car known simply as 'M'. The first-generation M6 is what it technically is called but only in America and Japan it was labeled in that way. Meanwhile, Europe had M635 CSi.
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Friday, April 14, 2023
8 signs your business’ call handling is broken / Companies / SME
By: Submissions
Everyone who’s worked in an office can recall a time the phone rang and everyone froze, waiting to see who’d blink first.
The phone rang…and rang…and rang.
It’s common in any office where call handling isn’t a main part of someone’s job.
But it’s devastating for customer service and runs the risk of losing business, and alienating customers.
Putting a focus on call handling can be overlooked at a time when you’ve got so many digital communication channels available. But when it comes to it, customers still prefer to pick up the phone if they’re looking for information or want to quickly resolve a problem.
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Wednesday, April 12, 2023
Interest Rates Should Continue To Fall, Eventually Setting Up A Bond Market Crash / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Avi_Gilburt
If you have been reading my public articles on TLT over the last half a year, then you would know of my expectation to see the bond market rally into 2023, and rates falling into 2023.
When I first put this expectation out last year, many (even some of my own clients) thought I was simply crazy. With rates skyrocketing towards 5%, most were quite certain that we would easily eclipse that point, and move well towards 6% and even higher. And, of course, the reason most maintained that expectation was due to the Fed’s public position of continuing to raise rates.
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Wednesday, April 12, 2023
Beware the TikTok Trojan Horse / Politics / Social Media
By: Stephen_McBride
The truth behind the TikTok hearing… Your vacuum cleaner could be spying on you… Two words that make every American a suspect… This is what concerns me the most...
1.As you read this, politicians on both sides of Capitol Hill are trying to take away your freedoms.
I wish that was an exaggeration… but it’s not.
A new bipartisan law was recently introduced to Congress. If passed, you can wave goodbye to your right to privacy in your own home.
Wednesday, April 12, 2023
Is It Cheaper To Buy A Home In Canada Compared To The UK? / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Submissions
The cost-of-living crisis has been hitting heavily in the last couple of years. Not only is it affecting the price of consumer goods and services and the cost of materials and energy, but it is also affecting the very homes we live in.
Back in 2021, property experts were stating that the UK would experience a “bumper year”, but now it is not looking very likely. In fact, housing prices are expected to dip under the rate of inflation, meaning there will be a real-terms reduction, meaning higher interest rates and pricier mortgages for cheaper properties.
Monday, April 10, 2023
Stock Markets Counting Down to US CPI Inflation Data Release / Stock-Markets / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
It's CPI Tuesday! We usually get a fake out move going into CPI then a reversal soon after which given that the market has been falling since the 6th of March into CPI data release then we should be setting up for a reversal higher some time after release of CP LIE which chimes with my end of the correction expectations given that both primary (3900) and secondary (3820) correction targets have been fulfilled.
Last month my CPI forecast table suggested to expect 6.28% vs actual of 6.4%. For February the table expects a sharp drop to 5.66% vs consensus of 6%, actual is probably going to be somewhere between 5.66% and 6%, so a net positive CPI data release should give weight to the next Fed rate hike being 0,25% instead of 0.5%, with the really big CPI drop coming on April's data release after which I expect inflation will become more sticky.
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Monday, April 10, 2023
Wall Street Cheerleaders Offer Perpetually Changing Arguments against Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: MoneyMetals
As the gold market marches toward new records, it is proving the naysayers wrong and vindicating longtime bulls.
Gold posted a record high close on a quarterly basis at the end of March. Now the monetary metal has its sights set on setting a new all-time high here in the coming days.
That’ll have to wait until next week though as global markets are closed here on this Good Friday. Gold will finish this week at $2,020 an ounce after advancing 2.1% this week. Silver, meanwhile, gained 3.7% to bring spot prices to $25.30 an ounce.
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