Thursday, September 07, 2023
Why US Annual Budget Deficits Are Getting Worse / Economics / US Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The pandemic a once in a 100 year event sparked rampant deficit spending to bailout the economy, that was 2020, whilst 2021 was nearly as bad! And 2022 did show an improvement by reverting back to pre-pandemic deficit era extremes. However the 2023 deficit is once more ramping up and running at twice the pre-pandemic extreme rate.
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Wednesday, September 06, 2023
US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions / Economics / Recession 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
As my analysis of Jan 2023 pointed out (Stock Market Gasping to Reach 4000 Ahead of Earnings Season, Dow New All Time High 2023?)
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Wednesday, September 06, 2023
Stock Market's Character Has Changed -- Here's How / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: EWI
We're watching the VIX or "fear index" to see what's next
Stock market investors naturally want to know the closing numbers for the main stock indexes at the end of each trading day.
Yet, it's also good to dig deeper.
Let me show you some examples of how the U.S. Short Term Update, a thrice weekly Elliott Wave International publication which covers near-term trends of key U.S. financial markets, does just that.
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Wednesday, September 06, 2023
Reasons Why You Should Build Your Portfolio and Live Like Rich People / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest
By: Submissions
Living like rich people is often seen as a fantasy that only a select few can achieve. However, building your portfolio can give you the opportunity to live a life of financial freedom and abundance. The advantages are undeniable, from wealth accumulation and passive income generation to financial security and access to exclusive opportunities. Here are several compelling reasons why you should build your portfolio and aim to live like rich people.
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Monday, September 04, 2023
Yield Curve Inversion and Recessions / Economics / Recession 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Apparently the yield curve inversion has a 100% hit rate, whenever a yield curve inverts it has always resulted in a recession.
Only problem is that it can take anywhere from 6 months to 3 years for the recession to materialise! Thus is another one of those nothing burgers that most analysts obsess over. For instance take the current inversion as of March 2022, those who swallowed the recession is coming mantra have been sat in money market accounts for the last 9 months whilst stocks such as META first doubled, then tripled and look set to quadruple, what kind of *****-A-Doodle-Doo indicator is the yield curve inversion? Which is why I don't tend to pay it much attention, given that it is pretty much useless in terms of investing.
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Monday, September 04, 2023
The Perfect way to onboard a new Recruit / Companies / SME
By: Sumeet_Manhas
Attracting top talent to your business isn’t always easy. When you are fortunate enough to bring in great people, you’ll want to ensure that their initial experience with you runs as smoothly as possible. Here, 1st Formations look at some top tips for onboarding new recruits to your small business. Let’s get started.
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Monday, September 04, 2023
The Positives and Negatives of Buying Stocks in Common Sectors / Companies / Investing 2023
By: Mark_Adan
There are more than 58,000 companies listed on stock exchanges globally, each with positives and negatives attached to them. All stocks fall under one of 11 stock market sectors using the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS), a global categorization system designed to make it easier for investors to find the perfect investment opportunity.
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Monday, September 04, 2023
10 Ways To Invest For Growth In 2023 / Stock-Markets / Investing 2023
By: Mark_Adan
Investing for growth in 2023 presents a dynamic landscape that blends traditional investment vehicles with exciting emerging trends. One prominent avenue gaining attention is investment trusts for growth. These trusts offer a unique approach to achieving substantial returns over time. In this comprehensive guide, we'll delve into each of the 10 effective ways to invest for growth this year, exploring the nuances and benefits of each strategy.
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Sunday, September 03, 2023
US Bond Market Yield Curve Inversion Current State / Interest-Rates / Inverted Yield Curve
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The yield curve is the Ten Year yield Minus 2 Year Yield - What it shows is when short money is more expensive (higher rates) then long money, why is that? Forward economic weakness thus lower forward rates? Yes that is a valid argument but I suspect that in large part is the WRONG conclusion, it is after all the consensus view, what the econofools regurgitate across MSM, long rates are lower because the market is discounting future interest rate cuts is WRONG!
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Sunday, September 03, 2023
Why you’re Hardwired to be Pessimistic About Markets / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest
By: Stephen_McBride
Fear is creeping in.After a blazing-hot start to the year, in which the Nasdaq notched its best first half in 40 years...
And the S&P 500 rallied 20%...
Stocks just slammed into a brick wall.
The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are each down around 3% this month. And investors are on edge.
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Sunday, September 03, 2023
Exploring the Significance of E-Money Licenses in the Digital Financial Landscape / Companies / SME
By: S_N_Chatterjee
In the rapidly evolving realm of digital finance, e-money licenses have emerged as a pivotal element that facilitates the seamless flow of electronic transactions. These licenses grant companies the authority to provide electronic payment services, revolutionizing the way we handle our financial interactions. In this article, we will delve into the intricacies of e-money licenses, their relevance, and the benefits they offer in the modern financial landscape. Incluence assists with e-money licenses.
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Saturday, September 02, 2023
CPI Smoke and Mirrors Hides Decade Long REAL Inflation PAIN! / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
INFLATION
Firstly understand that inflation is by DESIGN, the last thing your masters want is for the slaves to stop working so one of the primary mechanisms used to keep the slaves working is inflation because it destroys the purchasing power of earnings and savings so that most folks are kept running on the work hamster wheel into their graves where their lifetime of savings have been eroded away by INFLATION, or stolen by the banking crime syndicate, financial con men and through a myriad of modern day scam artists, run a mile from fund managers! They are all scam artists! If you think UK and US inflation is high take a look at the poor souls in Turkey (where I will soon be taking a trip, Istanbul), 58% inflation against which the depositors are thrown scraps of a 15% TAXED interest! Yes that's right, you get TAXED on the interest that FAILS to keep pace with inflation! Same in the UK, fake inflation of 7.2%, savings rates typically of 4.5% to 5.5% and the lemmings appear on broadcast news happy that they are in receipt of a sub inflation pittance, this after TEN YEARS of STEALTH theft of the purchasing power of their savings! At least the risky stock market gives ordinary folks a good chance to avoid the stealth theft, money in the bank is guaranteed to be systematically STOLEN! Yes we can play the fixed rate game which can temporarily work, but money in the bank in the UK over 10 years will lose between 1/5th and 1/3rd of it's value!
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Saturday, September 02, 2023
Is Nvidia NVDA Stock Price about to Crash 90%? / Companies / Nvidia
By: Stephen_McBride
Nvidia (NVDA) is the stock of a lifetime.
It’s surged 500%+ since I recommended it to my readers back in 2018.
And it just printed the best earnings results I’ve ever seen. I’ll tell my grandkids about how I was alive to see these numbers.
But its stock has tripled since January. And investors are asking: Is it time to take profits?
Today, I’ll tell you where I see Nvidia heading over the next six months.
Saturday, September 02, 2023
Why Do Traders Really Lose Money? Answer: It's Not the Market's Fault / InvestorEducation / Learn to Trade
By: EWI
And 1 FREE course on how to help you stop self-sabotaging "good enough" trade plans
I have always been a "who cares about the odds" kinda person. Meaning, if someone tells me the likelihood of succeeding at, say, learning to skateboard at 40, are low, it just makes me want to try it more. Otherwise, why would I say yes to a marriage proposal to someone I met online, who lives in a farm in rural Georgia, 3 months into us dating amidst a global pandemic?
If you believe Wall Street's statistics about the odds of success as a trader, yet still choose to speculate in the financial markets anyway, a part of you must be of that same "odds-schmods" mindset. Because according to the mainstream experts, the probability of traders losing money in the long run is between an abysmal 85% and 95%.
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Monday, August 21, 2023
How to Really Get RICH - Change the Way You THINK! / InvestorEducation / How to Guides
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is part 1 of 2 of my exclusive to patrons brain dump guide on How to REALLY Get RICH that I will seek to update and improve upon on an annual basis. The focus of Part 1 will be on changing the way you think because time and time again whenever I talk to ordinary folk it can be like I am conversing with a different species of human, I get asked questions such as Why do I need all that money, why don't I live in a mansion (a 6 bed house is more than adequate), why don't I buy a lambo or other junk, I mean stuff like gold jewelry and fancy watches to me are just junk, instead most folk obsess over junk. Clearly we are not on the same wave length and I can find it mind numbing engaging in such conversations which tends to make me want to avoid such folk in the future.Yes getting rich tends to make one arrogant, it's because people who are not rich try and give someone who is a lot richer than them advice on what they should do with their wealth because that's what they who don't have much would do, either that or they want me to be in the same debt laden sinking ship as them! This is why the rich don't mix with ordinary folk because they don't think the same way, it can be mind numbing to explain that which one takes for granted, so the starting point towards getting rich is to CHANGE THE WAY YOU THINK!
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Saturday, August 19, 2023
Stocks Bull Market Phase One End Game Sector Rotation / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock market ended the week at S&P 4410 off a new bull market high of 4448 against my expectations for a fuzzy week to deliver a correction this week enroute to the 4500+ final destination by late July to complete the first leg of this bull market and to herald a significant correction into October as illustrated by my original road maps -
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Saturday, August 19, 2023
AI – Do You Want to Talk to Your Dead Relative? / Politics / Social Issues
By: Stephen_McBride
On May 11, 1997, Garry finally lost.
Garry Kasparov, the greatest chess player in history—who hadn’t lost in 15 years—was defeated by IBM’s artificial intelligence (AI) Deep Blue.
Deep Blue eked out the win, 3 ½ to 2 ½. Man and machine were roughly evenly matched.
But do you know what’s happened to AI chess bots since then?
Saturday, August 19, 2023
Gold Stock Correction Finally Hits Target / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2023
By: Gary_Tanashian
The gold stock correction has been in play since GDX/HUI doubled topped in April-May
Gold Stock Correction From a Seasonal View
We begin this article, which updates the gold stock correction, as a platform for providing information requested by two NFTRH subscribers. Below are the recent seasonal tendencies for GDX. I’ve elected to use only the years from 2018 to current in order to keep the graph clean and to show that 2023 is shaping up per the norm in the post-pandemic era.
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Saturday, August 19, 2023
An Alien Invasion Will Cause Gold Price To Soar! / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: Avi_Gilburt
As many of you that follow my public articles likely know, I am an avid reader. And, from time to time, I will choose to read other public articles on various markets.
What truly burns my buns are articles that present market fallacies as the basis for their "analysis." And, sadly, this is all too commonly seen in the metals complex.
So, just the other day, I read an article that called for a major rally in gold primarily due to an expectation of China invading Taiwan. And, to just add a cherry on top, they noted that if that did not cause gold to rally, then it will rally due to it being a safe haven during market volatility/declines, due to inflation, due to the Fed lowering interest rates, due to central bank buying of gold, etc. In other words, they simply threw the kitchen sink of reasons as to why gold is going to rally in their eyes.
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Saturday, August 19, 2023
Talking Heads Predict No Recession While Shrinkflation Clips Consumers / Economics / Inflation
By: MoneyMetals
Precious metals markets are extending their losing streak as the U.S. dollar pushes higher. The Dollar Index rose for a fifth straight week through Thursday's close.Although the downward momentum in metals markets has been fairly steady for over a month, the total amount of price retracement has been modest. Volatility in gold and silver markets has actually been coming down.
When volatility gets compressed, that tends to precede a big move – often in the opposite direction of the prevailing trend, which has been down.
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