Tuesday, June 20, 2023
How Germany's Economy is Turning Ugly / Economics / China Economy
By: EWI
This economic gauge "dipped back below zero in less than a year"
In November 2020, when fears were rampant over a second wave of the coronavirus pandemic, the president of the European Central Bank called for economic stimulus (Reuters):
Facing gloomy outlook, Lagarde calls for unlocking EU aid
In December of 2020, what is known as the Next Generation EU package became operational. This economic aid was massive, amounting to more than €2 trillion at current prices.
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Monday, June 19, 2023
Why Most investors Underperform the Indices / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Time and time again I hear this mistake in the comments section, S&P is going down down should I sell x,y,z, stock and buy back later. As I often voice the indices such as the S&P are a red herring, ask anyone heavily invested in the likes of Apple, Nvidia or Microsoft and so on, The S&P is definitely not of much use for timing purposes in terms of accumulating and distributing as we saw this past week opps to distribute in the likes of MGNI and accumulate in the likes of Qualcom. So keep things in perspective, the indices are just that indices, a metric to gauge the direction of travel on an average basis and to perhaps swing trade the index but they are not that useful for buying and selling individual stocks, in fact can prove highly dangerous! For instance if the S&P looks toppy and a stock breaks higher then the investor might sell the strong stock. (META) as the index was heading lower. Similar for when the index is going up and a stock starts falling and the investor buys on perception that the stock is now cheaper (SVB).
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Sunday, June 18, 2023
Silver Hangs on by a Thread / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: Submissions
As anxiety grips the white metal, is a retest of the 2023 lows or highs more likely?
With the Fed’s hawkish crusade helping to suppress gold, silver, and mining stocks, the permabulls have gone from loud to quiet. Moreover, with resilient demand supporting inflation and keeping the pressure on the Fed, we warned on Mar. 31, 2022, that consumer spending would cause problems for the central bank. We wrote:
There is a misnomer in the financial markets that inflation is a supply-side phenomenon. In a nutshell: COVID-19 restrictions, labor shortages, and manufacturing disruptions are the reasons for inflation’s reign. As such, when these issues are no longer present, inflation will normalize and the U.S. economy will enjoy a “soft landing.”
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Sunday, June 18, 2023
Fed Claims It CAN Resume Rate Hikes While Doubts Grow / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: MoneyMetals
As the Federal Reserve begins to back off on tightening, the U.S. dollar is becoming increasingly vulnerable to selling.The Fed left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at just above 5% at this week's policy meeting. It was the first time in over a year that central bankers decided not to hike.
In his remarks, Fed chairman Jerome Powell tried to maintain a hawkish tone despite the dovish policy move. He vowed to deliver more rate hikes later this year.
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Sunday, June 18, 2023
Possible Replay of an Ominous Stock Market Price Pattern / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash
By: EWI
"I became panicky and covered at a considerable loss..."
The reason price patterns tend to repeat in the stock market is that investor psychology never changes.
The Elliott wave model directly reflects these largely predictable swings in investor psychology. That's what the Elliott wave principle is all about.
One of those price moves which has historically fooled investors is the first big rally in a bear market.
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Sunday, June 18, 2023
Countdown to ES Stock Market Downleg / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 spike into options expiry Friday was predictably rejected, and tech led the daily reversal, joined by communications and discretionaries. This shot across the bow in the topping process (major top preceding lackluster summer culminating in Sep bottom) shows that Nasdaq wouldn‘t hesitate in leading the decline. That‘s the strength of passive investing in reverse – leading higher, and then leading lower.
This quad witching was a trial run, for I think the downtrend would establish itself within 2 weeks latest – and it wouldn‘t happen because of sharp deterioration in incoming data or proving that the mirage of avoiding recession is just that, a mirage. The market topping process thoroughly described a week ago would come from sheer overvaluation driven by AI FOMO that has taken stocks into extreme greed territory already – from realization thereof. Perhaps characteristically, while the bullish sentiment rises, stock funds are seeing outflows to bond funds.
Friday, June 16, 2023
GPN Stock Targeting $150 / Companies / Investing 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
GPN $99 - EGF +3%, +15%, P/E 10, F5.2
The unloved or even hated financial sector is ripe for a turnaround. GPN is on the launch pad pending a break of a previous high at $114 to get the ball rolling. Target of $150 would represent a 50% advance on the current price. I am locked and loaded 172% invested.
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Friday, June 16, 2023
Fed Rate Hold is a Game-changer for the Price of Gold! / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Yesterday’s FOMC and the following press conference were groundbreaking. Rates stayed, but Fed said about raising them twice this year = no U-turn!
This is a game-changer because so many investors were still believing in a quick, dovish U-turn. And those dreams were just dispelled. The fact that rates were not hiked yesterday doesn’t matter as much as the fact that their expected future path is still to the upside.
While the core CPI didn’t move recently, inflation is moving down. With inflation moving down and interest rates going higher, what does that imply?
Friday, June 16, 2023
Test-Drive This Go-To Global Forecasting Service / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2023
By: EWI
Dear reader,
Do you ever just feel completely run-ragged with all the choices and decisions you're presented with daily? I know I do.
What insurance carrier? What doctor? What school? What... the list is endless.
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Friday, June 16, 2023
US Interest Rate A Pause Like Nonother / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Michael_Pento
The Bank of Canada paused its rate hiking cycle in January but then hiked rates at its last meeting. The
Royal Bank of Australia paused in April but then had to start hiking again in June. The Fed also paused at
its June meeting or at least skipped a rate hike. This was the case even though core inflation rose 0.4%
month over month from April to May and was still up 5.3% from a year ago.
Friday, June 16, 2023
Apple’s new Vision Pro is innovative and goofy / Companies / Apple
By: Submissions
By Chris Wood : Apple (AAPL) did it again.
In what many are calling its biggest product launch since the Apple Watch in 2015...
On Monday, the world’s largest company revealed the highly anticipated Vision Pro mixed reality headset...
... a game-changer that blends virtual and real-world experiences and lets you navigate through apps with your eyes.
Thursday, June 15, 2023
Broadcom AVGO Stock Blasts off to the MOON! / Companies / Tech Stocks
By: Nadeem_Walayat
AVGO - $813, EGF +3%, +7%, PE 20.5, F7.3
To the MOON! AVGO is probably the best AI tech stock on my list in terms of fundamentals. We are now in uncharted territory, all we have are the round numbers of $900 and $1000 to play with. I am 46% invested and reluctant to trim further. Given the fundamentals could spike even higher on earnings 1st June.
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Thursday, June 15, 2023
ASML Stock New All Time High? / Companies / Tech Stocks
By: Nadeem_Walayat
ASML - $736, EGF +14%, +22%, PE 40.7, F5.6
I have resisted the urge to trim ASML, so little trimming to date primarily due to the positive EGF's that is contrary to most. This stock has already doubled off it's low and could fly to new all time highs this year!
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Thursday, June 15, 2023
AMAT Stock New All Time High? / Companies / Tech Stocks
By: Nadeem_Walayat
AMAT $136, EGF -7%, -11%, P/E 17, F6,1
AMAT has had a fantastic bull run off it's $70 low thus I think it's going to find it tough to make much headway above X2, $140 given the negative EGF's. it could just manage to trade above $140 before correcting.
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Thursday, June 15, 2023
3 Investing lessons I learned in Italy / Companies / Microsoft
By: Stephen_McBride
My wife and I took a birthday trip to Tuscany over Memorial Day weekend.
There was love, laughter, and lots of wine.
I’m always on the lookout for investing ideas on my trips. You often find inspiration in the strangest places, and Tuscany didn’t disappoint.
Today, I’m sharing three investing lessons I learned from the trip… and how you can use them to make money.
Thursday, June 15, 2023
Progress for Stephen Bird’s Turnaround of Global Investment Company and Asset Manager abrdn / Companies / SME
By: Sumeet_Manhas
It’s been two years since Stephen Bird’s successful rebrand of Standard Life Aberdeen into abrdn. The former banker became the asset manager’s CEO in autumn 2020. He launched the new abrdn branding in spring 2021, reshaping the global investment company into three growth vectors.
The corporate rebrand has been one aspect of Bird’s wider company transformation. So far, his long-term plan to future-proof abrdn has reaped positive rewards. The turnaround continues to progress at a steady rate.
Sunday, June 11, 2023
Stock Market Preps for CPI LIE Inflation PUMP and DUMP / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Are the FOMO Maniacs about to get rug pulled?
We have CP LIE Tuesday and then the Fed rate meeting Wednesday in advance of which retail investors and many fund managers woke up June 1st to realise that there is a bull market underway and literally PANIC bought like a herd galloping towards the edge of the AI cliff.
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Sunday, June 11, 2023
META FILL the GAP FOMO All the way to $330! / Companies / Metaverse
By: Nadeem_Walayat
META $262 - EGF +13%, +38%, PE 26.9, F5
Willie Wonka's golden ticket stocks are those with Low P/E's (relative), positive EGF's, Okay fundamentals and under 100% share holder dilution, META FITS the bill. I recall in the depths of hell when META was at $100 and many wanted me to give them the green light to throw in the towel, my response was I never sell at a loss and now you can see why! Every time I crunch META's numbers I raise my Sell limit orders hence I still maintain heavy exposure at 133%. I would not be surprised if we see META trade north of $330 this year!
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Sunday, June 11, 2023
Micron MU Stock Price FOMO to $80 / Companies / Tech Stocks
By: Nadeem_Walayat
MICRON - $74 - EGF -400%, -213%, P/E 35.4, F4.4
Horrific fundamentals have prompted to grab the bull by the horn and trim Micron hard down to 85% invested and given the numbers I just can't see much more upside for Micron at a push it could get to $80, it's going to be interesting looking back on these stocks with the benefit of hindsight.
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Sunday, June 11, 2023
Will AMD Stock Price FOMO to $150? / Companies / AMD
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Not in the same league as Nvidia in terms of being in a blow off top. but for one stock that I had heavily bought I have taken this FOMO rally to SELL HARD down to 97% invested as all of the limits I had placed right up to $125 have been executed. Yes, AMD could go a lot higher during this FOMO run maybe as high as $150, we will only know with the benefit of hindsight.
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