Tuesday, December 08, 2015
Unwinding Carry Trades and Unintended Consequences / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015
By: Michael_Pento
The European Central Bank under the auspices of Mario Draghi has created a market destabilizing condition known as the euro carry trade. Mr. Draghi recently telegraphed to the markets a more aggressive attack on the value of the currency heading into the ECB meeting held on December 3rd. In fact, he went on record saying the ECB’s imperative is to, “Do what we must to create inflation as quickly as possible.” Because Draghi promised to destroy the euro at an even quicker pace than it was already falling, financial institutions front ran the ECB’s increased bid for bonds and equities, sending these prices soaring in the weeks prior to the meeting.
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Tuesday, December 08, 2015
Stock Market Investor Sentiment / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Ed_Carlson
Technicians typically look for signs of excess bullishness or bearishness in sentiment polls to conclude markets have swung too far in one direction or the other. An extreme in bullishness is often followed by a decline in equities and an extreme in bearishness is often followed by a rally.
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Tuesday, December 08, 2015
The U.S. Housing Market Needs to Watch Out For China! / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Harry_Dent
The New York Times ran an article on Sunday talking about how the Chinese invasion of U.S. real estate is only expanding.They aren’t just buying condos in Manhattan or McMansions in Silicon Valley – they’re buying properties in new developments in places like Plano, TX, just north of Dallas.
In the market for homes over $1 million, the Chinese make up one out of every 14 buyers – which is huge. In the top tier markets in San Francisco, Orange County or Manhattan, they can be 50% or more!
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Tuesday, December 08, 2015
Do You Follow The Hype Surrounding Economic Reporting? / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: Rodney_Johnson
When my children were young, one of the books we read to them was: “When You Give a Mouse a Cookie.” The point of the book is to follow a chain reaction stemming from providing a treat to a rodent. He will want a glass of milk, a napkin, have to sweep up crumbs, etc. It was odd, but entertaining.I’m often reminded of this book when I see economic reports. It’s not that the numbers are frivolous, but taken as individual data points they can’t mean very much.
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Tuesday, December 08, 2015
SPX challenging the 200-day Moving Average / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The SPX Premarket is down approximately 1% and appears to be resting just above the 200-day Moving Average at 2064.60.
The catalyst may be China. ZeroHedge reports, “Over the weekend, in its latest quarterly presentation, the Bank of International Settlements made what may have been a very premature assessment that China is now contained. To wit:
In October, equity markets staged a remarkable recovery, recording their strongest one-month gain in recent years. Market nerves were partly calmed by receding fears over tail risk in China. The improvement was broad-based. European and American stocks recouped nearly all losses experienced in the third quarter, while China’s stocks also made up some lost ground
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Tuesday, December 08, 2015
Gold Buying Surges At U.S. Mint In November – China Buys 21 Tonnes In November Alone / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: GoldCore
Despite gold at near 6 year lows, global demand for physical bullion remains very high. This is clearly seen in the recent demand data from the U.S. Mint and other mints. It is also seen in demand data from GFMS and the World Gold Council which shows very robust demand from Germany, India and of course, China.
Tuesday, December 08, 2015
A Peek Behind the Fed Policy Curtain / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: Gary_Tanashian
This article was originally and simply titled ‘Market Management’ as the opening segment from this week’s NFTRH 372. We then covered US and global stock markets and precious metals in detail, along with brief but ongoing negativity about commodities (but also what to look for regarding signs of change), a currency update and extensive market sentiment and indicator updates.
Tuesday, December 08, 2015
Draghi Leaves Financial Markets Hungry For More QE / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015
By: Sam_Kirtley
The most significant event for the markets last week was Draghi disappointing markets that were eager for an increase in ECB QE. Instead, the ECB President cut the deposit rate by 10 basis points to -0.30% and extended the current easing measures to March 2017, and beyond if necessary. Markets saw this action as insufficient with expectations across the board being that the ECB would sizeably increase their current easing measures, rather than just extend them. This was shown be clear declines in both stocks and bond prices, as well as a significant rally in the Euro.
Tuesday, December 08, 2015
Stock Market Reversing Lower....Range Bound....2020 and 2116 Is The Game / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Jack_Steiman
Just when it felt as if all was good with Friday's big upside stick things turned right around today and headed lower with force. Not as bad as Friday was good, but a nasty reversal. More importantly, it stopped the big move up dead in its tracks. No follow-through, which is what you get in an ending bull market. But again, that still doesn't mean we won't try higher again and again for weeks or months to come. It's just that this is the type of action you see near long-term tops. Lots of head fakes both ways. No one thought we wouldn't follow through today, or at worst, pull back gently to work off some overbought, sixty-minute, index-stochastic readings. The mood wasn't one that was about getting smoked after such perfect candle sticks on Friday, but the bulls were dealt a technical blow today with the gap down and run.
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Tuesday, December 08, 2015
Extreme Leverage in a Gold Futures Market Nearing the Breaking Point / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: MoneyMetals
The metals markets rallied strongly on Friday – action which came as a surprise to many. The gains snapped a 6-week losing streak for gold, silver, and platinum. Prices rose despite a stronger-than-expected November jobs report raising the odds the Fed will hike interest rates later this month.
Perhaps silver and gold futures finally caught a safe-haven bid on news of the terrorism-linked shooting in Southern California.
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Tuesday, December 08, 2015
Crude Oil Price Under $40! / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions with a stop-loss order at $54.12 and initial (!) target price at $35.72 are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
On Friday, crude oil reversed and declined sharply after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' decision to keep production high weighed on investors' sentiment. Thanks to these circumstances, light crude lost 2.74% and slipped under the barrier of $40 once again. What's next?
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Tuesday, December 08, 2015
Keynes on the Menace of Printing Money / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: Michael_J_Kosares
How the celebrated economist might have structured his investment portfolio today
Read full article... Read full article...“I find myself more and more relying for a solution of our problems on the invisible hand which I tried to eject from economic thinking twenty years ago.” – John Maynard Keynes, 1946
John Maynard Keynes made that admission to Henry Clay, a member of the Bank of England's Advisory Committee, in 1946. Ten days later he passed away. Keynes had come full circle – from economic interventionist extraordinaire to proponent of Adam Smith's laissez faire. Twenty-five years after that, Richard Nixon would suspend dollar convertibility, scrap the Bretton Woods fixed exchange rate regime system of which Keynes was the principal architect and allow currencies and gold to float freely in international markets. The fiat money system of the late 20th and early 21st centuries was born. Though a radically different system from the one Keynes created in the aftermath of World War II, Richard Nixon declared upon its launch that "we are all Keynsians now."
Monday, December 07, 2015
Stock Market Santa Rally 2015 to New All Time Highs - Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Nadeem_Walayat
It's Déjà Vu for the stock market following another bumper US Jobs report of +211k that beat the academic economist average expectations of 180k that follows hot on the heels of the November US Jobs positive surprise that once more prompted the consensus to quickly conclude that a Fed December US interest rate hike was a near certainty and likely to result in strongly negative consequences for stocks.
Monday, December 07, 2015
The Fed is About to Trigger a $9 Trillion Debt Implosion / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015
By: Graham_Summers
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) and European Central Bank (ECB) have created a very dangerous situation.
Throughout the last six years, there has been a sense of coordination between the Fed and ECB. This was evident both in terms of where capital went as well as how it was delivered via monetary policy.
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Monday, December 07, 2015
Stock Market Sell Signals Developing... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX has declined through Short-term support, 2-hour mid-Cycle support and hourly mid-Cycle support to give it a sell signal again. Further confirmation may come beneath the 200-day Moving Average at 2064.56.
My new Wave count appears not to be valid. This market has whip-sawed the best and I am not exempt. However, the support/resistance levels still play an important role in determining the market direction.
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Monday, December 07, 2015
Nasdaq and NYSE Index Pointing to Higher Market Prices for 2016 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Sol_Palha
"Don't ever take a fence down until you know why it was put up." ~ Robert Frost
We have seen the same song sung over and over again by the Doctors of Doom; the markets are going to crash, the world is going to come to an end, or some other pretentious title. Let's cut to the chase, the markets are not going to crash; they could experience a strong correction at some future date but that would just present you with another opportunity to buy quality stocks. Could the markets crash? That is a possibility, but you could kick the bucket before the event plays out the way the naysayers have envisioned. In fact, one could go as far as to state that there has never been a real market crash in the true sense of the word and that every so-called crash event was nothing but a buying opportunity in disguise. Crash or correction is a matter of perspective and that perspective depends on where you boarded the train; if you got in towards the end of the ride, then it will certainly feel like a crash. We will examine this concept in more detail in a follow-up article.
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Monday, December 07, 2015
What Deflation Quacks Like / Economics / Deflation
By: Raul_I_Meijer
As yet another day of headlines shows, see the links and details in today’s Debt Rattle at the Automatic Earth, deflation is visible everywhere, from a 98% drop in EM debt issuance to junk bonds reporting the first loss since 2008 to corporate bonds downgrades to plummeting cattle prices in Kansas to China’s falling demand for iron ore and a whole list of other commodities.
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Monday, December 07, 2015
BIS Warns of ‘Uneasy Calm’ in Financial Markets Before Possible Debt Storm / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: GoldCore
The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has warned in its latest quarterly review that the current ‘uneasy calm’ in financial markets might be short lived, threatened by the Fed’s widely expected interest rate hike – the first rate increase in a decade.
Monday, December 07, 2015
The NYA Index is in a Triangular Pattern ... Very Close to a Breakout / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Marty_Chenard
A money battle is going on as Inflowing Liquidity levels are trying to keep the market up and Institutional Investors are resisting by staying in low Distribution and not taking Inflowing Liquidity's direction yet.
This should be a volatile week with higher than normal risk levels.
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Monday, December 07, 2015
Soros' Financial Markets Reflexivity Gone Too Far / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015
By: Ashraf_Laidi
Evidence of Soros' Theory of Reflexivity remaining prevalent in financial markets re-emerged this week as the euro made its biggest single day advance since the Fed's announcement of QE in 2009. Simply put, the euro soared 4% due to misplaced and unfulfilled market expectations that the ECB would increase the size of its monthly asset purchases. The crowding out of euro-short algos was pivotal in the magnitude of the resulting short squeeze. But questioning the intensity of euro shorts deserves more time and attention than criticizing or doubting a central banker's decision.