Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, May 14, 2007
The Rest of the World is going to Rejuvenate the US Economy? / Economics / UK Economy
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
The “core” U.S. economy is doing fine. That is, if you exclude consumer spending, business capital goods spending and housing – almost 85% of U.S. real GDP – the outlook is rosy inasmuch as exports will surely surge because of the strong economic growth in the rest of the world. Other than the fact that exports are only about 11-1/2% of real GDP, a record high, there are other problems with depending on the rest of the world to be America's economic locomotive.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 14, 2007
How the Fed Causes Recessions / Economics / US Economy
By: Gerard_Jackson
It is taken for granted that the US will go into recession on the grounds that the boom-bush cycle is an inherent part of the free market. (Democrats and their lying media mates are fervently praying that the next recession will happen on Bush's watch). Now that Greenspan has retired and Bernanke heads the reserve most commentators expect that it will be business as usual. Unfortunately they are right. Bernanke made that clear a while ago with a supportive comment about the "price rule".
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Friday, May 11, 2007
Are We Headed for Another Great Depression? / Economics / Global Financial System
By: Mike_Whitney
My talks with Elaine Meinel Supkis
Question: I've been getting more and more e mail from people who are worried that the policies of the Bush administration will bring about a severe economic downturn or, perhaps, even another Great Depression. Do you believe that the problems in the real estate market, the falling dollar, the massive current account deficit, or the shaky hedge fund industry are likely to cause major meltdown?
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Tuesday, May 08, 2007
The incredible Israeli Shekel, as Israels economy continues to Boom / Economics / Israel
By: Gary_Dorsch
In a speech to business people on the risks facing the global economy, former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said on March 20th, that geopolitics was at the top of his list. “There is a near complete disconnect between geopolitical risk and risk that is priced and perceived in financial markets. It's like something out of Dickens, you talk to international relations experts and it's the worst of all times. Then you talk to potential investors and it's one of the best of all times.”Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 07, 2007
Financial Markets Wrap - US Economy, and Stock Market / Economics / Financial Markets
By: Douglas_V_Gnazzo
Economy
The U.S. Department of Labor reported that nonfarm payroll employment edged up +88,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.5%.
There were jobs added in several service-providing industries, including health care and food services, while employment declined in retail trade and manufacturing .
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Monday, May 07, 2007
US Economy and China's Currency -- What Gives? / Economics / US Economy
By: Gerard_Jackson
"Currency manipulation places American workers, farmers and businesses at a competitive disadvantage and this Congress will work with the administration to hold trading partners accountable to the rules of trade," said House Trade Subcommittee Chairman Sander Levin (D - MI). (And some readers still wonder why I have such intellectual contempt for most politicians, especially the likes of Levin). The basic problem for the US economy is not an undervalued Chinese currency but monetary policy.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, May 05, 2007
US Economy, Stuck in the Middle with You / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
Clowns to the left of me, Jokers to the right, here I am Stuck in the middle with you! - Stealers Wheel, 1974
The recent data on the economy is stronger than was expected. Does this mean that the slowdown we have seen for the past few quarters is behind us? Other data suggests the economy is weakening (witness the very slow 1.3% GDP growth last quarter). This week we look at the seeming disconnect in the data, briefly examine where the real stock market booms are happening, and re-visit the housing markets. It's a lot for what will be a quick letter (and lots of charts), as I am trying to leave town, so let's jump right in.
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Friday, May 04, 2007
“Growth” is in the Eye of the Beholder - US GDP falls 10% in Euro Terms / Economics / US Economy
By: Peter_Schiff
It may come as a shock to many of you, but I too believe that we are experiencing a "Goldilocks" economy. However, unlike most on Wall Street I do not define this as economic growth that is neither too hot nor too cold. I believe the analogy is apt simply because
U.S. economic growth is a fairy tale! When such gains are measured against the gains in the price of just about anything people buy, or in just about any foreign currency, it's a whole different story. For example; measured in euros, U.S. GDP has declined from 11.5 trillion in January of 2000 to 10 trillion today. From a European perspective, the U.S. economy has been in a seven-year recession, with GDP declining by close to 2% per annum.
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Friday, May 04, 2007
The "Something for Nothing Army", on the March! / Economics / US Economy
By: Ty_Andros
Today's Tedbits is about broad social trends and what you can bank on in formulating your investment strategies. It is not gloom and doom, it is reality! See it for what it is and thrive. The world is changing, change provides opportunity: Globalization is the future unfolding before our eyes.
Understand it, don't be afraid of it, none of us can prevent the future coming at us at one day at a time. Next week will be doing an in-depth analysis of the Energy markets, don't miss it!!
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Sunday, April 29, 2007
The Road To Hyperinflation / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Captain_Hook
Below is an excerpt from a commentary that originally appeared at Treasure Chests for the benefit of subscribers
Private equity deals have replaced the consumer in continuance of expanding the macro-credit cycle, where the deals just keep getting bigger and bigger in the race to become more efficient operationally.
This is how bankers are currently managing growth in the credit cycle, but with deflationary forces now bearing down on macro credit growth trends on the commercial side of the equation too, to go along with an exhausted consumer, it must be recognized the larger cycle is set to wind down in coming days. This of course would not be good for inflation bulls if not replaced with something else to keep the larger monetary base growing.
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Saturday, April 28, 2007
US Economic Growth Slowing To Stall Speed / Economics / UK Economy
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
Real gross domestic product of the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of only 1.3% in the first quarter of 2007, the slowest pace in four years. On a year-to-year basis, real GDP increased 2.1% in the first quarter, the smallest gain since the second quarter of 2003.
The U.S. economy is essentially stalling out with the downside risks of economic growth today being larger than at the March FOMC meeting.
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Friday, April 27, 2007
Inflation - Different This Time? / Economics / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
"...Previous explosions in the cost of living had taken decades...even centuries...to unfold. But the '70s bubble in guns and butter put the pedal to the metal. Inflation raced ahead as never before..."
"PEOPLE RIGHTLY buy gold when they see inflation ahead," said William Rees-Mogg at a private investment seminar in the City of London on Thursday evening.
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Thursday, April 26, 2007
Death of Bretton Woods II / Economics / Global Financial System
By: Jim_Willie_CB
Throughout the entire 2004 and 2005 years, the global financial markets were subjected to utter nonsense and propaganda about a new Macro Economy. Its main pillar was the recycle of vast Asian trade surplus into USTreasurys. The chief carnival barker for the concept was Alan Greenspan, even as its proponents labeled the crutch the name “Bretton Woods II” in pure heretical fashion. The Bretton Woods Accord, linking the USDollar to gold, was real and valid and enforced. It is about as far in function, meaning, and validity as gold (real & tangible) is from the USDollar (paper & counterfeit).
Thus the HERESY. In the last several months, a painfully clear trend is the ABSENCE of Asian recycled funds. On a net basis, led by Japan and China , the Asian group has shown flat USTBond purchases from their central banks, a radical departure from yesteryears. The US exports its inflation to Asia in order to pay for its bill for finished products, but Asia has RESISTED the temptation to put good money after bad into USTBonds. Implications concerning the faulty and stripped mythological premise are huge.
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Wednesday, April 25, 2007
Is China's Economy Too Hot? / Economics / China Economy
By: Michael_K_Dawson
I am sure many were concerned on April 19th as it appeared that the markets were in for a repeat of the China led melt-down on February 27. The Chinese Stock Market's negative take on the countries 11.1% first quarter growth rate spilled over to Europe and cast a black cloud over the U.S. Markets as it opened. The surge in growth rate coupled with a higher than acceptable consumer price index and a 23.7% growth in fixed-asset investment prompted statements such as the following from the government:
“If this type of fast growth continues, there is the possibility of shifting from fast growth to overheating. There is that risk,” Li Xiaochao, spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, told a news conference.
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Tuesday, April 24, 2007
First Comes Denial – And Then Acceptance / Economics / Liquidity Bubble
By: Captain_Hook
Below is an excerpt from a commentary that originally appeared at Treasure Chests for the benefit of subscribers on Tuesday, April 10, 2007
It's no secret markets are dramatically affected by investor psychology. And it's also no secret the right investor psychology can cause prices to soar with a healthy liquidity backdrop, as was the case with both the tech bubble in 2000, and in real estate more recently. In fact, given participation rates in both of these bubbles was so high, it would not be a stretch to categorize them as manias in the truest sense of the word.
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Tuesday, April 24, 2007
Economic Armageddon Is Coming / Economics / Global Financial System
By: Joel_S_Hirschhorn
Stop being a compliant consumer. Face the ugly truth. Don't get fooled by the stock market. Accept the need for the mistreated middle class to become the revolutionary class. The British military establishment's most prestigious think tank sees what too few over-consuming Americans are willing to anticipate. Unjustified and mounting economic inequality is planting the seeds for global economic conflict.Here is what the new report from the UK Defense Ministry's Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre warned might happen by 2035. "The middle classes could become a revolutionary class. The growing gap between themselves and a small number of highly visible super-rich individuals might fuel disillusion with meritocracy, while the growing urban under-classes are likely to pose an increasing threat...Faced by these twin challenges, the world's middle-classes might unite, using access to knowledge, resources and skills to shape transnational processes in their own class interest."
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Tuesday, April 24, 2007
Chicago Fed Index Points To Weak GDP Report On Friday / Economics / US Housing
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
The Chicago Fed publishes a monthly national economic activity index (CFNAI). With the release of its March index today, we can now calculate an average for the first quarter. And that first quarter average is minus 0.30 - the lowest quarterly average reading since Q2:2003 and the third consecutive quarterly contraction in the CFNAI. All of this points to another quarter of subpar real GDP growth for the first quarter, which already is expected by the consensus of forecasters.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 24, 2007
The Conundrum that is China / Economics / China Economy
By: Paul_Petillo
There are currently two undeniable truths in this new global marketplace: The US will buy what it wants with borrowed money and the Chinese have so far enabled that buying spree by loaning us the cash.
China has become an economic enigma. Growth in the country is running over 11% and inflation, now at 3.3%, slightly over what China considers reasonable, is beginning to increase much to the dismay of the Communist government.
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Sunday, April 22, 2007
U.K. Inflation – Government and Bank of England "Misleading Public" Says Gold-Market Analyst / Economics / Inflation
By: PRWeb
The British public is being misled about what's driving the current surge in the cost of living, said a leading gold-market analyst today. "Blaming energy prices is little better than a lie," according to Adrian Ash, head of research at BullionVault.com."First Tony Blair tried it, now Mervyn King at the Bank of England is trying it."
"But oil and gas prices are not to blame for the latest jump in the inflation rate. The problem instead is runaway growth in the money supply, caused by record low interest rates."
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Saturday, April 21, 2007
LEI and KRWI Signal Imminent Recession, Is it Different This Time? / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
The bulls on the economy had better hope it's different this time because both the index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) and the Kasriel Recession Warning Indicator (KRWI) are sending out recession warning signals now that March data are available. As I discussed in earlier commentaries (see The Econtrarian " Recession Imminent? Both the LEI and the KRWI are Flashing Warning " and The Econtrarian " When The Facts Change, I Change My Model - What Do You Do? "), year-over-year contractions in the quarterly average level of the LEI usually presage recessions, as shown in Chart 1.Read full article... Read full article...