Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, April 21, 2007
Subprime mortgage contagion, earnings shortfalls, a slowdown in consumer spending - What? Me Worry? / Economics / Subprime Mortgage Risks
By: John_Mauldin
This week I am in La Jolla for my annual Strategic Investment Conference, co-hosted by my partners Altegris Investments. This week's letter is the basis for the speech I will be giving Saturday afternoon on a few of the items in my long-term worry closet.
What? Me Worry?
It will come as no surprise to this audience that there are a few things that worry me. I often write about problems in the markets. Subprime mortgage contagion, earnings shortfalls, a slowdown in consumer spending are all on my worry list.
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Friday, April 20, 2007
Its Inflation Stupid as Wall Street celebrates benign CPI Report / Economics / Inflation
By: Peter_Schiff
Ding Dong the Witch isn't Dead - With this week's release of an apparently benign CPI report, Wall Street resembled Munchkin Land celebrating the death of the Wicked Witch of Inflation. Amidst the revelry few spared much concern that the Index actually registered a monthly gain of .6%. Since such a rise equates to an annualized inflation rate of 7.5%, how could the Wall Street Lollipop Guild be so euphoric? Simple; to pronounce the Witch sincerely dead, one needs only to consistently strip out marginally needed items such as food and energy. Without these "distractions" the core CPI increase can be shown to be only .1%: “way” below the .2% that had been forecast.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 18, 2007
Global Warming - What price saving the Earth? / Economics / Climate Change
By: Adrian_Ash
"...It should come as no surprise to find Wall Street urging us to go green. There's money to be made – tax-funded profits squeezed out of guilt-ridden consumers and PR-hungry business..."
NOT CONTENT with abolishing the economic cycle, the world's central bankers and finance ministers – led by Gordon Brown and ordained by Pope Al Gore the First – now plan a 'New World Order' to fight global warming.
A wealth of tax-funded humbug is certain to follow. So it comes as no surprise to find Wall Street and the City of London urging us all to "go green" as well.
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Tuesday, April 17, 2007
The US Dollar and Chinas Impending Recession, Part I / Economics / China Economy
By: Gerard_Jackson
There is a great deal of hot air being blown about -- particularly from that pack of economic illiterates commonly called politicians, especially Democrats. Their line is simple and to the point: China has manipulated the exchange rate so as to artificially lower the price of her manufactures at the expense of American industry. In other words, hapless Chinese taxpayers are being forced to subsidise American consumers. (Complaints about this alleged policy are particularly rich coming from Democrats: the people who made careers out of offering free lunches to the American public).
It is true that something bad is going on in the Chinese economy, but it is not subsidised exports. China is undergoing a massive inflation-led boom that can only result in severe distress. Let us look at some statistics, the sort our economic commentariat ignore. The latest monetary aggregates show that M2 increased by "16.9 per cent year on year in 2006". (M2 consists of currency and deposits).
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Friday, April 13, 2007
Yes the FOMC is Predominently Concerned about Inflation, BUT... / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has a baseline forecast that real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will grow this year somewhat below the economy's potential growth rate, which the FOMC perceives to be about 2-3/4%, and core consumer inflation will gradually move lower toward the 2% upper bound of the FOMC's “comfort zone.” That's the baseline forecast. But since the end of January, the FOMC has grown more concerned about inflation overshooting and real economic growth undershooting their respective forecasts.
In a sense, the Fed is caught on the horns of a dual mandate – to promote full employment along with price stability. We believe that this dual-mandate dilemma will be resolved early in the second half of this year. That is, we expect the FOMC to become predominantly more concerned with full employment and less concerned about price stability.
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Tuesday, April 10, 2007
Leading Economic Indicator attacked for signaling sluggish GDP growth / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
When The Facts Change, I Change My Model - What Do You Do?
On March 22, I published a commentary entitled" US Recession Imminent? Both the Leading Economic Indicators and the KRWI are Flashing Warning Signs ". The LEI refers to the index of Leading Economic Indicators published by the Conference Board. The KRWI (Kasriel Recession Warning Indicator) is something I happened on in my independent research.
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Tuesday, April 10, 2007
The US Economy: Is Manufacturing and the Yield Curve Signalling Recession? / Economics / Inverted Yield Curve
By: Gerard_Jackson
The US yield curve is giving a lot of economic commentators the jitters. The rule is that whenever the yield curve goes negative, i.e., short-term interest rates exceed long-term interest rates, a recession emerges some 12 to 18 months later. There was a great deal of hand-wringing in late 2005 when the yield turned negative. Recently the curve has started to flatten, with some commentators now predicting that it will once again go positive and give the US economy another spurt of growth.
The odd thing here is that the economic commentariat do not seem to realize that in a truly free market the yield curve would always tend to be flat. If a difference between long-term and short-term rates emerged then arbitrage would eliminate the difference. Say, for instance, short-term rates began to rise, then investors would desert long-term rates in favour of short-term rates. This would see short-term rates fall and long-term rates rise until the curve was flat.
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Tuesday, April 10, 2007
The Federal Reserve Monopoly over Money Supply / Economics / Money Supply
By: Dr_Ron_Paul
Recently I had the opportunity to question Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke when he appeared before the congressional Joint Economic committee. The topic that morning was the state of the American economy, and many of my colleagues raised questions about how the Fed might better "regulate" things to ease fears of an economic downturn. The tenor of my colleagues' questions suggested that Mr. Bernanke's job is nothing less than to run the U.S. economy, like some kind of Soviet central planner.
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Saturday, April 07, 2007
The US Economy financed by debt and excessive speculation - Cliff-Risk Nation / Economics / US Economy
By: Michael_J_Panzner
In the credit derivatives market, certain instruments are exposed to what is known as "cliff risk." This ominous sounding phrase describes a situation where the last in a series of adverse developments obliterates the value of what was only recently viewed as a triple-A-rated security. Up until that point, however, rating agencies, investors, and bankers assume that circumstances will eventually right themselves and that the principal will be paid in full, in spite of whatever bad news might have come along beforehand.
This latter way of thinking is not confined to the nether world of complex securities with tongue-twisting names like CDOs-squared. In many respects, it describes a point-of-view that permeates many aspects of modern financial life. Increasingly, Americans have taken it for granted that good times beget more of the same and they have acted accordingly. If bad news comes along, the damage is absorbed. Unlike with some toxic derivatives, however, many believe that if circumstances do manage to take a turn for the worse, something can always be done about it.
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Thursday, April 05, 2007
US Economy - No More Legs to Stand On / Economics / UK Interest Rates
By: Peter_Schiff
As investors and market strategists sift through every new economic tea leaf for clues about the health of the U.S. economy, I am reminded of a group of railroad engineers discussing the structural qualities of the track bed while an overloaded fright train careens around a sharp turn. For those not lost in the inconsequential minutia, a severe recession is an outright certainty, regardless of what current statistics might indicate on a day-to-day basis.
Since the bursting of the dot.com bubble, the U.S. economy has been fueled by an enormous consumer spending spree. This largess has been artificially propped up by the largest real estate bubble in U.S. history. In fact, housing has acted as a three-legged stool upon which American consumers have been precariously perched. Those legs are: 1) home equity extractions; 2) adjustable rate mortgages; 3) the wealth effect.
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Thursday, April 05, 2007
Risk of Stagflation - Key Charts and Major Clues / Economics / Gold & Silver
By: Jim_Willie_CB
Some extremely important charts follow, each with an equally important message. The story can be told from a series of painted pictures. The USEconomy is in deep trouble. The US Federal Reserve is caught in a box. Bankers are one step from being snared in a quagmire, with vivid memories of the insolvent bank system endured by Japan for over a full decade.
The US bank problems seem worse by comparison, when factoring in mortgages, huge spread trades sure to go bad, a mountain of credit derivatives growing at 80% annually in size, and a raft of collateralized debt obligations sitting like an ominous cloud. The Bank of Japan simply cannot continue with rate hikes, given the vulnerable shaky state of all matters financial on a global basis. Gold and silver are moving to center stage, undeterred by the recent shock waves. The main shock is to the Powers That Be (King Henry & His Court of Market Manipulators), who are losing grip at the helm. A wider war, surely beneficial for many private interests, would kill the future economic prospects.
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Tuesday, April 03, 2007
Financial Markets - Time to Pay Attention, China Trade War, Housing, Iran and more / Economics / US Economy
By: Dr_Martenson
There's so much happening in the markets both financially and geopolitically, that I hardly know where to begin.
Probably the most shocking news of the week was not the tension in the Middle East around Iran. No, as disturbing as is the possibility of another shooting war in immediate proximity to 25% of the world's daily oil shipments, the reality of a trade war with China announced on Friday (March 30 th , 2007) was even more disturbing:
The Bush administration, facing heavy pressure to deal with soaring trade deficits, will impose economic sanctions against China as a way of protecting American paper producers from unfair Chinese government subsidies, a Commerce Department official said Friday.
The action will reverse 20 years of U.S.trade policy by treating China, which is classified as a nonmarket economy, in the same way that other U.S. trading partners are treated in disputes involving government subsidies.
The decision was to be announced by Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez. Department official said Friday.
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Monday, April 02, 2007
The Dynamics of Deflation - The Golden Thorn in the Flesh - Part 1 / Economics / Deflation
By: Professor_Emeritus
Soldiers throwing away ammunition before combat - The guessing game among gold market analysts is still on: will central banks resume gold dumping or won't they, as the price of gold takes another shot at $700? In arguing the case pro and con, virtually all analysts miss one important point. Central bank sales of gold against the backdrop of deflation looming in the horizon is akin to soldiers throwing away ammunition just before combat. They should be doing the exact opposite. Soldiers should replenish their supply of ammunition. Central banks should reinforce their balance sheets by purchasing gold (as indeed several important ones, including those of China and Russia, are on record of doing).
This is the only way to keep the powder dry. In a deflation it may be necessary to inject massive amounts of new credit into the system, but the only way to make the national currency more plentiful without weakening it (let alone destroying it) is through gold purchases. They are by far the most effective weapon of a central bank to combat deflation. Are we to assume that our central bankers are dummies who do not know this piece of elementary truth?
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Saturday, March 31, 2007
The Root Cause Of Unemployment Part 2: Real Bills of Exchange and Employment / Economics / Money Supply
By: Professor_Emeritus
A REVISIONIST THEORY AND HISTORY OF MONEY
In Part I we elaborated on the thesis of the German economist Heinrich Rittershausen that the appalling world-wide unemployment of the 1930's was caused by the coercive legal tender laws of 1909. The chain of causation is as follows: the French and German governments, in preparation for the coming war, wanted to concentrate gold in their own coffers. They stopped paying civil servants in gold coin. To make this practice legal they had to enact legislation that gave bank notes legal tender status.
Scarcely did these governments realize that in doing so they set a slow process into motion which, in the end, destroyed the wage fund out of which workers could be paid even before merchandise has been sold to the ultimate consumer. In this second part we examine in greater detail how the wage fund was financed before 1909. We shall see that the bill market is just the clearing system of the gold standard. If disabled, sooner or later the gold standard will collapse as a result.
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Saturday, March 31, 2007
How the Fed Lost Control of Money Supply / Economics / Money Supply
By: Axel_Merk
The world is awash in money. This money has flown into all asset classes, from stocks to bonds, from real estate to commodities. In a world priced for perfection, should we enjoy the boom or prepare for a bust? Let us listen to Wall Street's adage and "follow the money."
After the tech bubble burst in 2000, policy makers in the U.S. and Asia set a train in motion they have now lost control over. In an effort to preserve U.S. consumer spending, the Federal Reserve (Fed) lowered interest rates; the Administration lowered taxes; and Asian policymakers kept their currencies artificially weak to subsidize exports to American consumers.
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Saturday, March 31, 2007
A Random Walk Down The Path of Asset Price Deflation / Economics / Deflation
By: Steve_Moyer
One of the nice things about our series of Safehaven articles on Asset Deflation is that we have been on such a tiny island compared to the "All Markets Will Continue To Rise Forever and Ever Amen Because It Is Our Birthright And The Fed Will Surely Guarantee It" set, our small legion of open-minded and perceptive readers write in with increasing frequency and say things like, "Yo, Steve, isn't it time for another deflation update?"Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, March 30, 2007
February Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Increases Inflation Risks / Economics / Inflation
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
In real terms, February Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) increased by 0.2% after January's 0.3% rise. It was a 0.5% increase in real service sector spending that yielded a positive change on overall real PCE. Real durable goods expenditures fell 0.1% and real nondurable goods expenditures fell 0.4%.
Real PCE services increased 0.5%, fueled by a 9.5% rise in expenditures for household utilities (electricity and gas). As you may recall, February was considerably colder than usual. In fact, in terms of heating degree days, February 2007 was the coldest February since that of 1979. March warmed up.
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Friday, March 30, 2007
US Economy, Bernanke's Big Battle with Stagflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Money_and_Markets
Mike Larson writes : Last week, I told you that our Federal Reserve Board Chairman was reaching for his “Bernanke put.” But today I want to talk about the major forces opposing his efforts.
In a nutshell, the Fed played too fast and too loose with monetary policy for too long. That allowed inflation to seep into virtually every corner of the U.S. economy and its capital and commodity markets.
At the same time, economic growth is slowing sharply due to the spreading impact of the housing and mortgage meltdown. I'll share some figures with you in a minute. Suffice it to say, they don't look good.
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Thursday, March 29, 2007
How Blind can they be? Poor state of the US Economy and Housing Slump being ignored / Economics / Credit Crunch
By: Peter_Schiff
As our phony economy begins to unravel before our eyes, it is amazing how few people can actually see it. The collective wisdom of stock market pundits, economists, and Federal Reserve officials gives the impression that everything is just fine.
Although some acknowledge that housing is slowing down a bit, that there are isolated problems with subprime mortgages, and that inflation is not moderating as quickly as they hoped it would (let's ignore surging oil prices), few can see any grave threats to continued economic expansion, or the bull market in stocks, bonds or real estate.
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Thursday, March 29, 2007
Asset Deflation : The Death of Real Estate / Economics / Deflation
By: Steve_Moyer
"I had a stick of CareFree gum, but it didn't work. I felt pretty good while I was blowing that bubble, but as soon as the gum lost its flavor, I was back to pondering my mortality." ~ Mitch Hedberg
I sell investment real estate in the San Francisco Bay Area. Have been for 25 years. It's a nice business. I've enjoyed it, and I value my clients.
My pappy's a realtor. My grandpappy was a realtor. My uncle's a realtor; so is my brother. Heck, some of my best friends are realtors (and it takes a big man to admit that).
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