Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, June 18, 2007
Are Most Economists Naive? / Economics / US Interest Rates
By: Tim_Iacono
The conclusion that most economists are naive, sometimes dangerously so, is something that has been hinted around at here for years, but now that the Wall Street Journal seems to concur, maybe it's time to stop asking the question and just say it.
Most economists are naive.
Or, maybe they're just too optimistic. Actually, in many cases, the two adjectives describe the same phenomenon - the willingness to suspend belief that something bad is likely to happen (or is already happening) due to a lack of real-world experience.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 18, 2007
An Emergency Program of Monetary Reform for the United States - Part 1 of 2 / Economics / US Economy
By: Richard_C_Cook
The mass media show attractive images of the comfortable lifestyles of the upper income earners who benefit from the cash-rich global economy. Which luxury car to drive, which championship golf course to frequent, which hedge funds to invest in, which stock brokers to consult—good questions if you've got the money! But behind this attractive scenery, debt, bankruptcy, and poverty are a tsunami that is overwhelming much of the world's population, including growing numbers in the U.S.
Following close on the heels of these calamities is a worldwide breakdown in law and order. Drug dealing, money laundering, gangsterism, white collar crime, political corruption, weapons trafficking, human slavery, terrorism, and endemic warfare are the dark side of a global financial system where everything has a price, the rich seem above the law, and individual security is almost impossible to attain.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 18, 2007
US Economy - Smoke and Mirrors / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_J_Nolte
It is nice to be able to take a bit of a vacation, come back and see that everything is just as you left it. Including the SP500. OK, so there was a bit of volatility while on the trip, with markets rising and falling by 70+ points in all but three trading days for the month of June. Everything from China to inflation to interest rates has been blamed or credited with the daily changes in the markets, however it just may be that investors are struggling with still high valuations and a likely slowing to the economy.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, June 16, 2007
It's Official: The Crash of the U.S. Economy has begun / Economics / US Economy
By: Richard_C_Cook
It's official. Mark your calendars. The crash of the U.S. economy has begun. It was announced the morning of Wednesday, June 13, 2007, by economic writers Steven Pearlstein and Robert Samuelson in the pages of the Washington Post, one of the foremost house organs of the U.S. monetary elite.Pearlstein's column was titled, “The Takeover Boom, About to Go Bust” and concerned the extraordinary amount of debt vs. operating profits of companies currently subject to leveraged buyouts.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, June 16, 2007
May CPI: Still Scant Evidence of Food/Energy Price Surge Pass-Through / Economics / Inflation
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
If this headline looks familiar, it is because yesterday's commentary had almost the same headline, save for "PPI" instead of "CPI." (Speaking of yesterday's commentary, I inadvertently omitted a chart, which no one called to my attention. Hmm, perhaps no one other than me read it!) As the table below indicates, headline CPI inflation has accelerated, primarily because of spiking energy prices. But excluding energy and food prices, the so-called core rate of CPI inflation is moderating (see Chart 1). On a year-over-year basis, the previous peak in all-items CPI inflation occurred way back in September 2005 at 4.7% -- a full 200 basis point over its current rate.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 15, 2007
Inflation Invasion / Economics / Inflation
By: Andy_Sutton
Imagine this for a scene: It is that fateful night and you are on the Titanic. You have just witnessed a collision with a massive iceberg and can hear the water rushing into the 'waterproof' compartments. The Captain comes to the railing and begins telling the passengers in a very monotonous, soothing, familiar pentameter that everything is fine. You look up and there stands...Ben Bernanke??Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 15, 2007
May PPI: Still Scant Evidence of Food/Energy Price Surge Pass-Through / Economics / Inflation
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
Just like every headline economic statistic of late, the Finished-Goods All-Items PPI increased a greater-than-expected 0.9% in May after a 0.7% rise in April. As the table below shows, another sharp rise in energy prices dominated the increase in finished-goods prices. After six consecutive monthly increases, finished-food prices declined marginally.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 12, 2007
UK CPI Inflation rate falls but RPI will ensure further rise in UK Interest Rates / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK inflation as measured by the Bank of England's preferred measure, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell to 2.5% for May 07, from 2.8% for April 07. The rate of 2.5% is still above the banks target rate of 2%. The more widely recognised measure of UK inflation, the RPI fell to 4.3% from 4.5%, and is significantly above its original target of 3% which was abandoned in favour of the CPI measure, as clearly the CPI is more easily managed or manipulated than the RPI which shows a more significant continuing failure of the Bank to control UK Inflation.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 12, 2007
Boo! Spot the Shocker in UK Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Adrian_Ash
"...When this bull market in 'luck' runs out, shorting the Pound might prove a wise course instead of buying fixed-income gilts..."
GOOD NEWS for lucky cash-savers in Britain . The Pound in their pocket lost only one-third of a penny in purchasing power during May 2007.
Okay, so it dropped 2.5p from a year earlier – and £1 spent on the High Street will buy 15% less than it commanded in spring 1997.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 11, 2007
So-Called Fed Model Suggests Housing Market Is Over-Valued / Economics / US Housing
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
Better late than never, huh? The so-called Fed model is often used to gauge the under-over-valuation of corporate equities by comparing the earnings yield on, say, the S&P 500 with the yield on the Treasury 10-year security. The same kind of analysis can be applied to owner-occupied housing by dividing the "earnings" or services produced by owner-occupied housing by the market value of that housing. The services produced by housing are estimated by the Bureau of Economic Analysis in its National Income and Product Table 2.45U, line item "Personal Consumption Expenditures: Owner-Occupied Nonfarm Dwellings: Space Rent."Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 11, 2007
Deflation is No Mystery Except to Most Economists / Economics / Deflation
By: Gerard_Jackson
That the great body of economists think that a fall in general prices is deflationary by definition and a clear indicator of an impending recession tells us how much this phenomenon is misunderstood. On the basis of this understanding central banks have implemented price stabilisation policies which in themselves carry the seeds of future recessions. The situation is so bad in the economics profession that I am inclined to go so far as to suggest that only a handful of economists actually know what deflation really means. (Classical economists had no such difficulty).Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, June 09, 2007
Narrowing in April US Trade Gap Suggests Weak Domestic Demand / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
In nominal terms, the U.S. April trade deficit narrowed significantly to $58.5 billion from March's downwardly revised gap of $62.4 billion. In price-adjusted terms, the trade deficit in goods also narrowed sharply in April to $54.9 billion from March's $59.6 billion. So, this more-than-expected narrowing in the trade deficit ought to cause forecasters to bump up their secondquarter GDP forecasts, right? Wrong. Most of the narrowing in the deficit was the result of weaker imports, not stronger exports. In price adjusted terms, imports of goods fell 3.6% month-to- month, while exports fell 0.4%.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 07, 2007
White House Buys into “Immaculate” Recovery Theme / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
Today the White House updated its economic forecast from that made last November. Back then, the Bush administration was expecting real GDP growth of 2.9% in 2007 on a Q4/Q4 basis. Now it is forecasting 2007 real GDP growth of 2.3%. Given the 0.6% annualized growth in Q1, this forecast implicitly assumes average growth of 2.87% in the remaining three quarters of 2007. For 2008, the White House is forecasting even stronger growth from the assumed 2.87% over the remainder of 2007 - 3.1% for 2008. As far as I can tell by looking at the White House's annual average forecast for the 3-month T-bill rate in 2007, 4.8, it assumes no Fed interest rate cuts this year.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 07, 2007
Inflation, Inflation, Inflation! / Economics / Inflation
By: David_Vaughn
Are you feeling sorry for gold lately? Fraid it doesn't need your sorrow with its present price action. As I have said before and will say again gold will do what gold wishes to do.
Wednesday, June 06, 2007
The More the Fed Delays Cutting US Interest Rates, the More We Cut Our GDP Forecast / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the monetary policy arm of the Federal Reserve, has communicated that it is quite content to hold the federal funds rate at 5-1/4% for an extended period despite four consecutive quarters of sub-par real economic growth and a moderation in core consumer inflation (i.e., excluding food and energy components). Why is the FOMC content to remain on hold? Because it has a forecast calling for enough of a rebound in economic growth later this year to avoid a recession and it desires further moderation in core inflation.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 06, 2007
Looming Trade War - The China Syndrome / Economics / China Economy
By: Dr_William_R_Swagell
“The issue on the table is not whether the US needs to take action to respond to the interventionist policies of China and Japan in this key area, but what form that action should take.” Sander Levin, Chairman trade subcommittee House Ways & Means Committee.
“The time for talk has passed; we must act now to end this unfair trade practice that cripples American industries.” Charles Rangel, Chairman House Ways & Means Committee.
“…by going after China, you in the Congress are playing with fire… (risking) a policy blunder of monumental proportions…if the China bashers get their way.”
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 06, 2007
May Retail Sales Looking Soft as Bernanke Appears To Be A Team Player / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
Last week we learned that seasonally-adjusted car and truck sales were down a little from April, which were down a little from March, which were down a little from February, which were down a little from January, which were down a little from December (see Chart 1). Today we learned that seasonally-adjusted chain store sales in May, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) were down 0.7% from April. Nominal gasoline prices may energize nominal May retail sales to be reported next week by the Census Bureau.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 06, 2007
Housing Remains Bernanke's and Stock Markets Unknown / Economics / US Stock Markets
By: Ashraf_Laidi
Tuesday's stock market declines in the US were attributed to a prolonged rally in bond yields resulting from stronger than expected services ISM survey and remarks from Fed Chairman Bernanke reiterating that core inflation "remains somewhat elevated" . The services ISM hit a 13-month high of 59.7, accompanied by broad improvements in the employment, new orders and prices components, bond yields surged to 4.99%, their highest since mid August.
The services ISM combined with Mr. Bernanke's remarks and last week's strong manufacturing ISM are reducing the prospects for a 2007 Fed cut on the basis of stabilizing growth and prolonged inflationary risks. This is beginning to upset US equities, rendering the June outlook to be bearish from purely technical terms (see S&P 500 chart below).
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 05, 2007
Economist Illustrates Why the Fed Should First Do No Harm / Economics / Money Supply
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
In the June 4th edition of The Wall Street Journal, Greg Ip has written a piece explaining why the National Income and Product Account data, the data from which GDP estimates are derived, can be confusing and erroneous for various reasons (see "Options Hinder Efforts to Gauge Economic Growth,").Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, June 03, 2007
The International Consequences of the Federal Reserve / Economics / Money Supply
By: Gerard_Jackson
I have written numerous times on the consequences of the Fed's loose monetary policy and how it can aggravate the current account deficit. Until recently figures confirmed my worst fears that the current account was racing along unabated. But what else should one expect given the monetary boom that the Fed unleashed. Now the actual CAD figures don't matter -- what matters is the trend and the reason for it. The reason has already been established and is now monetary history.Read full article... Read full article...