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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Thursday, September 20, 2007

Beware - The Bernanke Fed Could Ignite Hyper-Inflation! Money Supply Surging, Dollar Plunging / Economics / Inflation

By: Gary_Dorsch

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article“You unlock this door with the key of imagination. Beyond it is another dimension, a dimension of sound, a dimension of sight, a dimension of mind. You're moving into a land of both shadow and substance, of things and ideas. It's a journey into a wondrous land, whose boundaries are that of imagination. That's a signpost up ahead, your next stop, the “Twilight Zone!”

Rod Serling was a multi-talented man and a prolific writer. His television series “The Twilight Zone” ran for five seasons in the early 1960's and was extraordinary, winning three Emmy Awards. As the host and narrator, and writer of more than half of 151 episodes, he became an American household name and his voice always sounded a creepy reminder of a world beyond our control.

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Economics

Tuesday, September 18, 2007

US Economy Looks at Recession; Whilst China Consumer Boom Takes Off / Economics / US Economy

By: Money_and_Markets

Tony Sagami writes: If you watch much CNBC or read the financial newspapers, you probably noticed a small-but-growing stream of Wall Street experts forecasting a recession for our country.

Right now, economists put the odds of a U.S. recession at one in three. But, in my view, they might want to consider ratcheting up their forecasts …

Six Signs of a Coming Recession in the U.S.

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Economics

Tuesday, September 18, 2007

US Now in Growth Recession, Full Blown Recession Tomorrow? / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOn a year-over-year basis, growth in real gross domestic product (GDP) is settling in at around 2%. Although the economy's precise potential growth rate is unknown, most estimates center around 2-3/4%. Therefore, it is safe to say that the economy currently is growing below its potential growth rate and is likely to continue so in the foreseeable future. This situation is sometimes referred to as a growth recession. As economic growth persists below potential, the unemployment rate begins edging higher and the manufacturing capacity utilization (operating) rate begins moving lower. Chart 1 shows that these events are beginning to occur now.

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Economics

Monday, September 17, 2007

Does the Fall in Australia’s Manufacturing Hold a Lesson for US economy? / Economics / Austrailia

By: Gerard_Jackson

Australian manufacturing is now about 11 per cent of GDP, the lowest ratio in the OECD. For years I have been warning our so-called free marketeers that the condition of manufacturing needed to be addressed. Their insouciant response is that the decline of manufacturing — no matter how severe — as a proportion of GDP is only to be expected in an advanced economy. In support of this assertion they appeal to the law of diminishing marginal utility and the concept of comparative advantage.

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Economics

Monday, September 17, 2007

Why Consumer Led Recoveries Can Be Bad For Economies / Economics / US Economy

By: Gerard_Jackson

There is genuine bafflement among orthodox economists (at least in private) about the forces that burst bubbles and bring economies to their knees. Whenever a slowdown emerges the inevitable impulse to call for rate cuts make itself felt. I have even had economists tell me that America's post-WWII boom vindicates the Keynesian vote, forgetting — perhaps they don't know — that Keynesians predicted something like 6-8 million unemployed because of the massive drop in government spending once the war was over. In fact, for the fiscal years 1944 to 1947 government spending dropped by $56 billion, a fall of 59 per cent! The result was a boom in employment that completely refuted Keynesianism.

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Economics

Friday, September 14, 2007

Americas Economic Dominance Fades As the US Dollar Continues to Slump / Economics / US Economy

By: Peter_Schiff

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAmerican Consumers are Losing their Crown - With the U.S. Dollar Index breaking decisively below its long-term support level, the sun is finally setting on the golden age of American consumption. As America 's economic dominance fades, so too will the faith in the central thesis that has explained its apparent success and has shaped the majority of recent economic theory.

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Economics

Thursday, September 13, 2007

US Economic Crisis: The US Political Leadership Has Failed / Economics / US Economy

By: Richard_C_Cook

As the 2007 economic collapse picks up speed, it's time to take a hard look at the performance of the U.S. national political leadership in meeting some of their most fundamental responsibilities. It's time to face the fact of serious failure over the last quarter century.

During this time, the leaders of both political parties and of major institutions such as the Federal Reserve have presided over the abandonment of some of the most solemn obligations of constitutional government. They have done this in order to embrace an agenda favorable mainly to the financial, corporate, and government elites.

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Economics

Thursday, September 13, 2007

Federal Reserve Chatter – Looking Forward to tomorrow's Economic Data / Economics / US Economy

By: David_Urban

Monday was an interesting day as Federal Reserve officials gave speeches which were dissected by the market for clues ahead of next weeks FOMC meeting.

Janet Yellen, president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve and one of the two governors who asked for a discount rate decrease, cited risks to consumer spending from the subprime fallout and downward pressure but also cautioned against a bailout.

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Economics

Tuesday, September 11, 2007

US Economy Heading for a Recession? / Economics / US Economy

By: Gerard_Jackson

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere have been oodles of commentary about the effects of the subprime real estate fiasco and how this will impact on the US economy. The first thing to bear in mind is that this financial disaster should be laid at the feet of the Fed. Without its loose monetary policies the credit to fund subprime mortgages on a massive scale would not have been available. Pumping masses of credit into the banking system is like pouring water into a bucket that is full. It's gotta overflow. And this is precisely what America got: an overflow of credit that went into funding a lot of dodgy loans — and not all of them are mortgages.

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Economics

Monday, September 10, 2007

Inflation Surge Expected As Food Costs Continue to Soar / Economics / Inflation

By: Adrian_Ash

"...The average weekly shopping bill is set to rise by 30% between now and Christmas in the United Kingdom ..."

ADAM LEYLAND, editor of The Grocer – the food & drink industry's favorite weekly reading here in the United Kingdom – says the cost of the average Briton's weekly shopping bill could rise 30% by December.

Thirty per cent? By Christmas?

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Economics

Monday, September 10, 2007

Contrary to Opinion, US is Not In a Recession Yet / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_J_Nolte

First it was if, then it became when and now it is how much. The very weak jobs report on Friday moved the Fed to front and center in the debate on economic growth and how aggressive should the Fed be in cutting interest rates to save a faltering economy. While a negative reading on “job creation” does not necessarily mean we are entering a recession, the likelihood of one has increased. However, other economic reports last week were not as dire, as the consumer seemed content to spend, judging by the retail sales figures provided by the various retail companies.

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Economics

Saturday, September 08, 2007

Consumer Confidence is the Greatest Bubble of All! / Economics / US Economy

By: Andy_Sutton

If you're like me, you have sat back over the past month or two and wondered what took so long. This is not to say that I am a gloomist by any means. There are a very small percentage of us that look at the economy and markets from a very different perspective. A perspective grounded in common sense. I can distill the difference down to a simple comparison: Most of the world believes there is a free lunch. We do not.

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Economics

Thursday, September 06, 2007

Your Wealth Is Being Confiscated Through Inflation / Economics / Inflation

By: Money_and_Markets

Larry Edelson writes: I'd like to start this issue by quoting three great authors. Although they were from very different walks of life, they shared an understanding of exactly what the global economy is going through today, especially the events here in the U.S. …

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Economics

Tuesday, September 04, 2007

Manufacturing is the key factor to the US Economy Avoiding Recession, Not the Sub-prime Mortgage Market Meltdown / Economics / US Economy

By: Gerard_Jackson

It would be an understatement to call the current thinking of the economic commentariat confused. For this lot consumer spending drives the economy. Therefore it follows that the subprime mortgage crisis will hit consumer spending and then spread to manufacturing resulting in a full-blown recession. (This is not good news — unless your name is Nancy Pelosi or Harry Reid). Fortunately the subprime fiasco is not a threat to the US economy. It is nothing more than a symptom of the Fed’s loose monetary policy. Without credit expansion these loans would never have been made.

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Economics

Monday, September 03, 2007

How Payroll Taxes Kill Jobs / Economics / US Economy

By: Gerard_Jackson

Actually they don’t — so long as the market is allowed to factor them into lower net pay. First and foremost, it should never be forgotten that payroll taxes are part of the worker’s gross wage. Raising payroll taxes is economically the same as legislating for higher wage rates. Nevertheless, I did have one so-called economist make the ludicrous argument that because the government spends the payroll receipts no unemployment can emerge because aggregate spending has been increased. This is the kind of economic idiocy that drives me up the wall.

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Economics

Friday, August 31, 2007

US Monetary Data is Not Painting a Pretty Picture / Economics / Money Supply

By: David_Urban

Well, MZM and M2 have begun to take on a parabolic looks as the compounded annual rate of change increased to 9.7 and 6.4%, respectively, from a year ago. MZM growth is giving me the chills just looking at the chart. This does not look good from an anti-inflation perspective. You can say that the helicopter drops have started. Take it all in now because when the party ends you will not want to be around for the cleanup.

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Economics

Thursday, August 30, 2007

The War on Working Americans - Part II / Economics / US Economy

By: Stephen_Lendman

This article was written to assess the state of working America in the run-up to Labor Day, 2007. Organized labor today is severely weakened following decades of government and business duplicity to crush it. Part I reviewed the labor movement's rise in the 19th century and subsequent decline post-WW II and especially in the last three decades. Hope arose for some change in the Democrat-led 100th Congress. A weak effort emerged, but Senate Republicans killed it.

Organized labor is struggling to remain relevant and claw its way back. The enormous obstacles it faces are reviewed below as well as the condition of working Americans today in a globalized world affecting their lives and welfare heading "south" in the "land of opportunity" offering pathetically little.

The Loss of High-Paying Jobs from Outsourcing Under Globalized Market-Based Rules Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, August 30, 2007

US / Mexico : Failed System and Failed State / Economics / US Economy

By: Jim_Willie_CB

TRIBUTE TO KURT RICHEBACHER. He was a valued colleague and an inspiration to my newsletter. Our week together in Cannes will forever be etched in my memory.

Amusement is my response when other writers call me or my work ‘extremist' as Claude Cormier recently has. He is a topnotch analyst out of Quebec , whose work is respected and admired. He himself cites extreme events, like comparisons between the United States and Argentina , in the decimation of the middle class amidst prolific inflation and financial sector foul play. Labels are not kind, but my job is to analyze the extreme situation on a host of fronts. To be honest, the label is taken here as an extreme compliment, since it means my perceptions are squarely on target. Additional extreme observations can be detailed, which points to systemic breakdown. The US financial system shows signs of failure, the USEconomy suffering deeply in association. If one were to list the extreme events and factors in the last few years, reaching a climax nowadays, the recitation would flow over into several dozen pages.

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Economics

Wednesday, August 29, 2007

The Result of 35 Years of a Paper Global Monetary System / Economics / Money Supply

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

I’ll skip the thousand words – the picture says it all.

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Economics

Wednesday, August 29, 2007

The Worst of All Policies - Federal Reserve Policy Blunders / Economics / Credit Crunch

By: Adrian_Ash

"To lend a great deal, and yet not give the public confidence...is the worst of all policies." - Walter Bagehot, Lombard Street  

"HISTORY PROVES that a smart central bank can protect the economy and the financial sector from the nastier side effects of a stock market collapse," wrote Ben Bernanke in Foreign Policy magazine, way back in October 2000.

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