Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, October 01, 2007
The Seven Plus Year Super Cycle Recession In US Auto Sales Continues / Economics / US Auto's
By: Bob_Bronson
Auto sales have been in a continuous recession for the past seven years. They never fully recovered from the last recession, and thus never entered an expansion stage, and they have been declining sharply for the past 22 months since their Jul '05 peak (on a rolling 12-month cumulative basis).
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Saturday, September 29, 2007
A Weaker US Dollar is Good for the United States and its Trading Situation - Economic Myth Busters / Economics / US Dollar
By: Andy_Sutton
Last week seemed an appropriate time to take a break. The big Fed ‘surprise' announcement resulted in most columnists dedicating their weekly missives either towards approval or condemnation of the action. Frankly, I am tired of the Fed, tired of the media spin on lower interest rates and the weaker dollar. It is the latter which compels me to pen this second volume of ‘Myth Busters'. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 28, 2007
Stagflation Revisited - Economic Contraction and High Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Peter_Schiff
Currently, Wall Street is divided into two camps: those who feel the Fed should fight recession, and those who feel it should fight inflation. The former feel that a recession can only be avoided if the Fed rescues the economy from the imploding housing market. To these analysts, inflation is not a problem as it will be contained by slower growth. The other camp maintains that the housing slowdown is not significant enough to derail the otherwise healthy U.S. economy, and should therefore not distract the Fed from its primary mission of fighting inflation. As usual on Wall Street, both camps have it wrong. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 26, 2007
US Housing Crash Deepens As the US Drifts Towards Stagflation / Economics / US Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The US Shiller House Price Index which reflects the housing market of America's ten largest cities fell by an annualized 4.5%, which greatly increases the probability of a US recession sparked by the deepening housing bear market that has already made itself felt in the form of the Subprime mortgage sparked credit crunch. As an adjunct to falling house prices, property sales also continue to tumble with the National Association of Realtors reporting sales of family homes falling by 4.3% in August alone to the lowest annualized rate since August 2002. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 25, 2007
C.H. Douglas: Founder of Modern Monetary Reform Movement / Economics / Money Supply
By: Richard_C_Cook
C.H. Douglas (1879-1952), a Scottish-born engineer, who worked for a number of American and British companies in the early years of the twentieth century, was the founder of the modern monetary reform movement. My own interest in monetary reform dates from discovering Douglas's ideas through a reprint of A.R. Orage's articles about them in Orage's publication The New Age dating from the 1920s.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 24, 2007
Central Banks Playing The Paper Game Bring the World Close to Hyper Inflation / Economics / Money Supply
By: Captain_Hook
Apparently we have arrived – arrived at the point where any and all problems encountered must now be papered over – and we've gone global in this regard. You might want to listen to Jim Sinclair's talk on why the derivatives problem will necessarily lead us into hyperinflation. I'm not sure I agree with all his assertions, however the primary message is undeniable, and the market action is backing such claims, so they must be taken seriously. In this regard, let's take a quick look at money supply now to ensure our thinking is on the right track. Wouldn't you know it, in addition to monetization efforts taking off (growing at a 14% annualized rate), which of course we already knew about, growth rates in visible measures including both Money At Zero Maturity (MZM) and M2 are also going vertical, which gold is correctly responding to then. Here, these are not quite what would be considered hyperinflationary levels, but they are damn close --- close enough to talk about mild hyperinflation. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 24, 2007
Defending Tax Cuts Against Leftist Journalists / Economics / Taxes
By: Gerard_Jackson
Jonathan Chait, a senior editor with The New Republic , has written an unintentionally funny book called The Big Con: The True Story of How Washington Got Hoodwinked and Hijacked by Crackpot Economics , part of which was published in the TNA. ( How economic crackpots devoured American politics. Feast of the Wingnuts ) At or near the top of his pet hatreds is supply-side economics (a “crank doctrine”) and the Laffer curve. One thing became immediately clear: Chait is the last person who should be calling anyone an economic crackpot.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, September 22, 2007
House Prices to Drop by 50%, US Still Headed for A Recession Despite Fed Rate Cut / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
In this issue:
A Sea Change at the Fed
Transmission Problems
A 50% Drop in Housing Prices
Wildness Lies in Wait
I Still Think Recession
It's Good to Be Home
The term "sea change" has come to mean a profound transformation ever since Will Shakespeare used it in The Tempest. I think this week we witnessed a true sea change in central bank policy, on both sides of the Atlantic. The stock market rejoiced over a 50 basis point cut from the Fed, assuming that it will stimulate growth and avoid anything more than a slowdown. In this week's letter, we ponder several questions. Why did the Fed decide to cut now when the rhetoric of just a few weeks ago was that of inflation fighting? What do they see? Are more rate cuts coming? Will they make any difference? And who is Frederic (Rick) Mishkin and why is he maybe the most important Fed governor you haven't heard of? There's a lot of ground to cover, and it should make for an interesting letter.
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Friday, September 21, 2007
Hyperinflation or Recession? / Economics / Inflation
By: Brian_Bloom
Zimbabwe is a country where hyperinflation is a reality as opposed to a theoretical possibility. The photograph below shows what it looks like to pay for lunch for eight people in that country. It was sent to me in an email dated September 18 th , 2007 . The meal – consisting of fillet steaks and beers – cost six million Zimbabwean dollars. What you are looking at is that amount of money in $1,000 notes being collected by the restaurant manager. I don't know if it included a Z$600,000 tip or not. The restaurant has no menu. Patrons wanting to eat are not offered a choice. They ask “what's left?” Still, they are able to smile. Such is the indomitability of the human spirit. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 20, 2007
Inflate, Inflate, Inflate, Stagflation! / Economics / Inflation
By: Money_and_Markets
Larry Edelson writes : What concerns me most today is not the mortgage meltdown in the U.S. That's because it's not the cause of our country's economic problems. Rather, the mortgage meltdown and credit market panic are just symptoms of a much deeper, underlying disease.
That disease is the fiscal and monetary fiasco I have been warning you about for the last several years. Specifically, I'm talking about Washington's reckless spending. The government is racking up public debts like there's no tomorrow!
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Thursday, September 20, 2007
Beware - The Bernanke Fed Could Ignite Hyper-Inflation! Money Supply Surging, Dollar Plunging / Economics / Inflation
By: Gary_Dorsch
“You unlock this door with the key of imagination. Beyond it is another dimension, a dimension of sound, a dimension of sight, a dimension of mind. You're moving into a land of both shadow and substance, of things and ideas. It's a journey into a wondrous land, whose boundaries are that of imagination. That's a signpost up ahead, your next stop, the “Twilight Zone!” Rod Serling was a multi-talented man and a prolific writer. His television series “The Twilight Zone” ran for five seasons in the early 1960's and was extraordinary, winning three Emmy Awards. As the host and narrator, and writer of more than half of 151 episodes, he became an American household name and his voice always sounded a creepy reminder of a world beyond our control.
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Tuesday, September 18, 2007
US Economy Looks at Recession; Whilst China Consumer Boom Takes Off / Economics / US Economy
By: Money_and_Markets
Tony Sagami writes: If you watch much CNBC or read the financial newspapers, you probably noticed a small-but-growing stream of Wall Street experts forecasting a recession for our country.
Right now, economists put the odds of a U.S. recession at one in three. But, in my view, they might want to consider ratcheting up their forecasts …
Six Signs of a Coming Recession in the U.S.
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Tuesday, September 18, 2007
US Now in Growth Recession, Full Blown Recession Tomorrow? / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
On a year-over-year basis, growth in real gross domestic product (GDP) is settling in at around 2%. Although the economy's precise potential growth rate is unknown, most estimates center around 2-3/4%. Therefore, it is safe to say that the economy currently is growing below its potential growth rate and is likely to continue so in the foreseeable future. This situation is sometimes referred to as a growth recession. As economic growth persists below potential, the unemployment rate begins edging higher and the manufacturing capacity utilization (operating) rate begins moving lower. Chart 1 shows that these events are beginning to occur now. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 17, 2007
Does the Fall in Australia’s Manufacturing Hold a Lesson for US economy? / Economics / Austrailia
By: Gerard_Jackson
Australian manufacturing is now about 11 per cent of GDP, the lowest ratio in the OECD. For years I have been warning our so-called free marketeers that the condition of manufacturing needed to be addressed. Their insouciant response is that the decline of manufacturing — no matter how severe — as a proportion of GDP is only to be expected in an advanced economy. In support of this assertion they appeal to the law of diminishing marginal utility and the concept of comparative advantage.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 17, 2007
Why Consumer Led Recoveries Can Be Bad For Economies / Economics / US Economy
By: Gerard_Jackson
There is genuine bafflement among orthodox economists (at least in private) about the forces that burst bubbles and bring economies to their knees. Whenever a slowdown emerges the inevitable impulse to call for rate cuts make itself felt. I have even had economists tell me that America's post-WWII boom vindicates the Keynesian vote, forgetting — perhaps they don't know — that Keynesians predicted something like 6-8 million unemployed because of the massive drop in government spending once the war was over. In fact, for the fiscal years 1944 to 1947 government spending dropped by $56 billion, a fall of 59 per cent! The result was a boom in employment that completely refuted Keynesianism.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 14, 2007
Americas Economic Dominance Fades As the US Dollar Continues to Slump / Economics / US Economy
By: Peter_Schiff
American Consumers are Losing their Crown - With the U.S. Dollar Index breaking decisively below its long-term support level, the sun is finally setting on the golden age of American consumption. As America 's economic dominance fades, so too will the faith in the central thesis that has explained its apparent success and has shaped the majority of recent economic theory. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 13, 2007
US Economic Crisis: The US Political Leadership Has Failed / Economics / US Economy
By: Richard_C_Cook
As the 2007 economic collapse picks up speed, it's time to take a hard look at the performance of the U.S. national political leadership in meeting some of their most fundamental responsibilities. It's time to face the fact of serious failure over the last quarter century.
During this time, the leaders of both political parties and of major institutions such as the Federal Reserve have presided over the abandonment of some of the most solemn obligations of constitutional government. They have done this in order to embrace an agenda favorable mainly to the financial, corporate, and government elites.
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Thursday, September 13, 2007
Federal Reserve Chatter – Looking Forward to tomorrow's Economic Data / Economics / US Economy
By: David_Urban
Monday was an interesting day as Federal Reserve officials gave speeches which were dissected by the market for clues ahead of next weeks FOMC meeting.
Janet Yellen, president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve and one of the two governors who asked for a discount rate decrease, cited risks to consumer spending from the subprime fallout and downward pressure but also cautioned against a bailout.
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Tuesday, September 11, 2007
US Economy Heading for a Recession? / Economics / US Economy
By: Gerard_Jackson
There have been oodles of commentary about the effects of the subprime real estate fiasco and how this will impact on the US economy. The first thing to bear in mind is that this financial disaster should be laid at the feet of the Fed. Without its loose monetary policies the credit to fund subprime mortgages on a massive scale would not have been available. Pumping masses of credit into the banking system is like pouring water into a bucket that is full. It's gotta overflow. And this is precisely what America got: an overflow of credit that went into funding a lot of dodgy loans — and not all of them are mortgages. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 10, 2007
Inflation Surge Expected As Food Costs Continue to Soar / Economics / Inflation
By: Adrian_Ash
"...The average weekly shopping bill is set to rise by 30% between now and Christmas in the United Kingdom ..."
ADAM LEYLAND, editor of The Grocer – the food & drink industry's favorite weekly reading here in the United Kingdom – says the cost of the average Briton's weekly shopping bill could rise 30% by December.
Thirty per cent? By Christmas?
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