Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, September 10, 2007
Contrary to Opinion, US is Not In a Recession Yet / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_J_Nolte
First it was if, then it became when and now it is how much. The very weak jobs report on Friday moved the Fed to front and center in the debate on economic growth and how aggressive should the Fed be in cutting interest rates to save a faltering economy. While a negative reading on “job creation” does not necessarily mean we are entering a recession, the likelihood of one has increased. However, other economic reports last week were not as dire, as the consumer seemed content to spend, judging by the retail sales figures provided by the various retail companies.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, September 08, 2007
Consumer Confidence is the Greatest Bubble of All! / Economics / US Economy
By: Andy_Sutton
If you're like me, you have sat back over the past month or two and wondered what took so long. This is not to say that I am a gloomist by any means. There are a very small percentage of us that look at the economy and markets from a very different perspective. A perspective grounded in common sense. I can distill the difference down to a simple comparison: Most of the world believes there is a free lunch. We do not.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 06, 2007
Your Wealth Is Being Confiscated Through Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Money_and_Markets
Larry Edelson writes: I'd like to start this issue by quoting three great authors. Although they were from very different walks of life, they shared an understanding of exactly what the global economy is going through today, especially the events here in the U.S. …Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 04, 2007
Manufacturing is the key factor to the US Economy Avoiding Recession, Not the Sub-prime Mortgage Market Meltdown / Economics / US Economy
By: Gerard_Jackson
It would be an understatement to call the current thinking of the economic commentariat confused. For this lot consumer spending drives the economy. Therefore it follows that the subprime mortgage crisis will hit consumer spending and then spread to manufacturing resulting in a full-blown recession. (This is not good news — unless your name is Nancy Pelosi or Harry Reid). Fortunately the subprime fiasco is not a threat to the US economy. It is nothing more than a symptom of the Fed’s loose monetary policy. Without credit expansion these loans would never have been made.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 03, 2007
How Payroll Taxes Kill Jobs / Economics / US Economy
By: Gerard_Jackson
Actually they don’t — so long as the market is allowed to factor them into lower net pay. First and foremost, it should never be forgotten that payroll taxes are part of the worker’s gross wage. Raising payroll taxes is economically the same as legislating for higher wage rates. Nevertheless, I did have one so-called economist make the ludicrous argument that because the government spends the payroll receipts no unemployment can emerge because aggregate spending has been increased. This is the kind of economic idiocy that drives me up the wall.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 31, 2007
US Monetary Data is Not Painting a Pretty Picture / Economics / Money Supply
By: David_Urban
Well, MZM and M2 have begun to take on a parabolic looks as the compounded annual rate of change increased to 9.7 and 6.4%, respectively, from a year ago. MZM growth is giving me the chills just looking at the chart. This does not look good from an anti-inflation perspective. You can say that the helicopter drops have started. Take it all in now because when the party ends you will not want to be around for the cleanup.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 30, 2007
The War on Working Americans - Part II / Economics / US Economy
By: Stephen_Lendman
This article was written to assess the state of working America in the run-up to Labor Day, 2007. Organized labor today is severely weakened following decades of government and business duplicity to crush it. Part I reviewed the labor movement's rise in the 19th century and subsequent decline post-WW II and especially in the last three decades. Hope arose for some change in the Democrat-led 100th Congress. A weak effort emerged, but Senate Republicans killed it.Organized labor is struggling to remain relevant and claw its way back. The enormous obstacles it faces are reviewed below as well as the condition of working Americans today in a globalized world affecting their lives and welfare heading "south" in the "land of opportunity" offering pathetically little.
The Loss of High-Paying Jobs from Outsourcing Under Globalized Market-Based Rules Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 30, 2007
US / Mexico : Failed System and Failed State / Economics / US Economy
By: Jim_Willie_CB
TRIBUTE TO KURT RICHEBACHER. He was a valued colleague and an inspiration to my newsletter. Our week together in Cannes will forever be etched in my memory.
Amusement is my response when other writers call me or my work ‘extremist' as Claude Cormier recently has. He is a topnotch analyst out of Quebec , whose work is respected and admired. He himself cites extreme events, like comparisons between the United States and Argentina , in the decimation of the middle class amidst prolific inflation and financial sector foul play. Labels are not kind, but my job is to analyze the extreme situation on a host of fronts. To be honest, the label is taken here as an extreme compliment, since it means my perceptions are squarely on target. Additional extreme observations can be detailed, which points to systemic breakdown. The US financial system shows signs of failure, the USEconomy suffering deeply in association. If one were to list the extreme events and factors in the last few years, reaching a climax nowadays, the recitation would flow over into several dozen pages.
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Wednesday, August 29, 2007
The Result of 35 Years of a Paper Global Monetary System / Economics / Money Supply
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
I’ll skip the thousand words – the picture says it all.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, August 29, 2007
The Worst of All Policies - Federal Reserve Policy Blunders / Economics / Credit Crunch
By: Adrian_Ash
"To lend a great deal, and yet not give the public confidence...is the worst of all policies." - Walter Bagehot, Lombard Street
"HISTORY PROVES that a smart central bank can protect the economy and the financial sector from the nastier side effects of a stock market collapse," wrote Ben Bernanke in Foreign Policy magazine, way back in October 2000.
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Wednesday, August 29, 2007
Chinese Consumers Show No Sign of Slowing! / Economics / China Economy
By: Money_and_Markets
Tony Sagami write: Just when U.S. investors were breathing a sigh of relief based on last week's uptick in new home sales, they got smacked again yesterday with far bleaker news on the larger market for existing homes:
• Another decline in sales …
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Monday, August 27, 2007
Bottlenecks and Monetary Policies: More Economic Fallacies that Damage Economies / Economics / Money Supply
By: Gerard_Jackson
The cry is going up from our economic commentariat that the Australian economy is running into “production constraints” and that this in turn will drive up interest rates. It is also argued that this situation is likely to be compounded by the inflationary effects of rising wages. This nonsense, readers, is what passes for economic wisdom, not only in the Australian media but also the world-wide media. Listen out for the same arguments appearing more and more frequently in the US as the Bush boom gets close to its economic economic denoument, unless the Fed unexpectly slaps on the monetary brakes .Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, August 27, 2007
US Dollar RIP / Economics / Inflation
By: Adrian_Ash
"...The call for more money to fix the financial markets comes just as global inflation is beginning to cause real mischief..."
EVEN IN DEATH, it seems, you're no longer safe from the iniquities of inflation.
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Monday, August 27, 2007
The US Trade Deficit and Chinese Surpluses: Economics v Paranoia / Economics / US Dollar
By: Gerard_Jackson
Now that the recent turmoil in international markets has subsided for now attention is returning to the sinister machinations of Beijing and its silent war against the US economy. It is held by some -- in fact, by far too many -- that China is using currency manipulation to deliberately deindustrialise the US and force its manufacturers to export jobs, as evidenced by the US trade deficit. Moreover, China is threatening to use its dollar reserves to sink the US economy.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 24, 2007
US Recession, It's a Shoe In / Economics / US Economy
By: Peter_Schiff
The current economic debate really boils down to one essential question: "Will there be a recession?" To me, the question has about as much vitality as debating whether Roger Clemens will be inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame. (With over 300 wins and more strikeouts than any other pitcher besides Nolan Ryan, the Rocket is a sure thing for Cooperstown ). Similarly, a recession is not a question of “if” but merely of “when”.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 16, 2007
Don’t Underestimate the U.S. Consumer? The Global Economy Is Strong? / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
These are two common refrains from mainstream economists who never foresaw a recession until it already had been declared by the NBER. Today we received some information that ought to give these mainstreamers pause for thought.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, August 15, 2007
Wall Street and Main Street Are Joined at the Hip / Economics / US Housing
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
Watching Bubblevision and reading the Wall Street Journal (see August 7 edition, " Don't Panic About the Credit Market ," David Malpass), I keep hearing that what happens on Wall Street doesn't materially affect Main Street. I respectfully disagree. Main Street is more dependent on Wall Street than ever before.
Chart 1 shows the history of one simple definition of household surpluses and deficits. This definition subtracts the sum of Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) and Residential Investment Expenditures (RIE) from Disposable Personal Income (DPI). Both PCE and RIE are "line items" in the Gross Domestic Product accounts. RIE is essentially the value-added in the private residential real estate sector - new construction of homes, including remodeling of existing homes, and the value added by real estate brokers. DPI is equal to all income currently earned by households, including employer contributions to pension funds, interest on investments, dividends on corporate equities and rents on property less taxes paid by households.
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Tuesday, August 14, 2007
China's Economic Blackmail / Economics / China Economy
By: Joel_S_Hirschhorn
Massive amounts of Chinese imports are threatening public health and safety. Many food and consumer products pose risks. Lead in children's toys and jewelry. Toxins in foods for pets and humans, and in toothpaste. Unsafe automobile tires. Many prescription drugs made with few safeguards. The list is endless. The federal government is not safeguarding American citizens through thorough testing of imports.
Why?
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Tuesday, August 14, 2007
It's Not the Housing Market That Threatens the US Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: Gerard_Jackson
The reported collapse of the mortgage market has clearly spooked markets and the great majority of analysts. We are even told that this financial ‘disaster' is rippling through Europe and Asia, forcing their central banks to pump up the money supply. But belief that the bursting of a housing boom could send the US economy into recession is, in my opinion, a complete fallacy.
Tuesday, August 14, 2007
Can China's Central Bank Wait Until August 25, 2008 to Rein In Inflation? / Economics / Inflation
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
The Chinese government reported today that Chinese consumer inflation in July reached 5.6% on a year-over-year basis - its highest rate since February 1997. As the chart below shows, Chinese consumer inflation has been trending higher throughout 2007. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) and the Chinese central government has implemented a series of measures this year in an attempt to rein in consumer price as well as asset price inflation.
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