Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, October 19, 2007
US Inflation Understated in Official Statistics - Prices are the Cart, Money Supply is the Horse / Economics / Inflation
By: Peter_Schiff
The sad truth is that despite the best efforts of monetary economists everywhere, fundamental misconceptions about inflation remain entrenched in government, business, and the media.
In an exchange earlier this week on CNBC, a guest explained that rising oil prices can not cause inflation because prices for other goods must fall as spending is diverted to pay for more expensive oil. That explanation prompted host Becky Quick to ask: “If rising oil prices do not cause inflation, then what does?” Since that question was left unanswered on the air, I thought I would take the time to answer it here.
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Friday, October 19, 2007
Consumer Inflation – Likely to Trend Higher in the Months Ahead and Multi-Family Housing Starts Plunge / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
After being relatively benign in the previous four months, the increase in the CPI flared up in September, increasing 0.3% month-to-month and 2.8% year-over-year. In August, the year-over-year increase was only 2.0%. After having fallen for three consecutive months, the energy component of the CPI increased 0.3% in September. Food prices continued their steady monthly increases, rising 0.5% in September. Unless there is a sharp drop in energy prices, year-over-year increases in the CPI are likely to climb even higher as energy prices now are considerably higher than they were in the fourth quarter of last year.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 18, 2007
Strong UK Consumer Spending Suggests No Cut in UK Interest Rates This Year / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK Retail sales figures for September rose more strongly than market expectations, rising by 0.6% against forecasts of just a 0.1% rise which takes the annual rate to 6.3%, the highest in 3 years.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 18, 2007
Housing Market Down, Inflation Up / Economics / US Economy
By: Tim_Iacono
Two important economic reports were released just a short time ago. Housing starts and permits for new constuction are way down and inflation is on the rise. Surprise!Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 17, 2007
U.S. Economy Ends Third Quarter with a Whimper As Housing Slump Continues / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
The Federal Reserve reported today that industrial production (IP) in September increased by only 0.1% after being flat in August. The 3.9% annualized growth in Q3 IP (versus 3.6% in Q2) was "front-loaded" with the 0.6% month-to-month increase in July. Capacity utilization (CAPU) was unchanged in September from August at 82.1%. In this cycle, the peak CAPU occurred in July and August 2006 at 82.1%.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, October 16, 2007
UK Inflation CPI Remains Steady at 1.8% / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK inflation for September as measured by the governments preferred measure the Consumer Price Index remained steady at 1.8%. The more widely recognised measure of inflation RPI, fell to 3.9%.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, October 16, 2007
Consumer Spending Spree Creates Bad Vibes for the Economy / Economics / Money Supply
By: Gerard_Jackson
We can divide economic commentators in to two basic groups: The first one consists of what we can loosely term free market commentators while the second one consists of interventionists. Alan Wood and Terry McCrann are representative of group one. The sad thing is that neither group offers any serious economic commentary. Right now Australia is undergoing a boom, consumer spending is rocketing — as is the trade deficit — inflation is about 3 per cent and the unemployment figures have been slashed.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 15, 2007
The State of US economy: Greenspan and Bernanke Have A Lot To Answer For / Economics / US Economy
By: Gerard_Jackson
Because I haven't read Greenspan's book The Age of Turbulence: Adventures in a New World I'll have to confine myself to those parts that some commentators have fastened on to and hope they are accurate. It has been reported that Greenspan believes that the collapse of the Soviet Union made the job of fighting inflation much easier because the output of millions of workers who had been freed from communism exerted a downward pressure on the prices.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, October 14, 2007
US in a Slow Motion Recession But May Avoid a Technical Recession / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
In this issue:
The GDP Equation
How Low Can You Go?
The Key Variable Problem
The Importance of Fiscal Policy
The Slow Motion Recession
New Orleans and More Birthdays
A recession is technically defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This week we look at how the GDP is actually calculated to give us an idea as to the potential for a recession. We re-visit my concepts of a Slow Motion Recession and a Muddle Through Economy. We briefly look at the sliding dollar and housing, and see how it all adds up. You'll need to put your thinking caps on, but it should be interesting.
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Thursday, October 11, 2007
US Economy Living in Perilous Times Due to the Financial Bubble / Economics / Liquidity Bubble
By: Richard_C_Cook
The U.S., as the only so-called superpower, exerts a decisive influence on the fate of the world. Today peace and stability are threatened by three giant problems whose outcome depends a great deal on U.S. decisions. These problems are linked to each other synergistically in ways that increase the overall danger. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 08, 2007
US Economy’s Bubble: Casting the Recession Runes / Economics / US Economy
By: Gerard_Jackson
That the US economy is running into problems is becoming clearer by the day. It is equally clear that America’s economic commentariat is still wedded to the fallacy that consumption drives economies. Time after time I keep reading that consumer spending is more than 70 per cent of GDP which means that if consumer spending falls the economy will slide into recession. What matters, however, is total spending, of which business spending is the most important component. The problem here is that the commentariat has unthinkingly swallowed the fallacy that including spending between stages of production would be a case of double-counting.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, October 06, 2007
The Prevent A US Recession At All costs Defense / Economics / US Economy
By: Andy_Sutton
Undoubtedly, I am not alone in my amazement how time and time again, in the waning moments of the big game, defenses give up wins by using the 'prevent defense'. In football, it involves backing up your defense on its heels and allowing itself to be nickeled and dimed to death by any quarterback who can throw a spiral. The idea is not to give up the big play. Despite the best of intentions, however, the results are generally the same: a big loss.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, October 06, 2007
US In a Slow Motion Recession Due to Housing Market Bubble Bust / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
In this issue:
Why 110,000 Jobs Is Not Enough
GDP Is Set to Be Lower
The Slow Motion Recession
The Texas Chainsaw Massacre
One (Cut) and Done?
Republicans for Protectionism?
A New Chair for an Old Back
Austin and The Ten Tenors
The market certainly seemed pleased with the new jobs number. The glass is more than half full - or is it? Fed Vice-chairman seemed to suggest that the economy was getting better and the Fed might not need to make any further rate cuts. Is it now "One (Cut) and Done?" This week we look at what employment growth tells us about the growth of the US economy, spend some more time looking at how a fall in home prices will affect consumer spending, and muse on whether the Fed is indeed done cutting. We look at the scariest headline I have read in the Wall Street Journal in years, and I tell you about a chair that has done wonders for my back. It's a lot to cover, so let's jump right in.
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Friday, October 05, 2007
Inflation and the Federal Reserve / Economics / Inflation
By: Richard_C_Cook
No term in the “dismal science” of economics is more misunderstood than “inflation.” The word means “rising prices,” but is used at different times by different people to describe totally different phenomena.
The most predominant type of inflation is natural and occurs as raw materials are used up and must be replenished. It's akin to the law of diminishing returns, or entropy, and is overcome by technological innovation. Another type of inflation is expressed through constantly changing conditions of supply and demand, including the fluctuating cost of labor. Yet another type results from the predatory pricing practices of monopolies such as the worldwide oil cartel which has jacked up the cost of petroleum to over $80 a barrel.
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Friday, October 05, 2007
The Big Picture - 2008 Economic Contraction to Hit US Economy Due to Dollar Stagflation / Economics / US Economy
By: Brian_Bloom
There is an anomaly in the equity markets which seems not to be drawing enough attention.
This anomaly can be seen by comparing the following two monthly charts (courtesy Decisionpoint.com).
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Wednesday, October 03, 2007
US Economy Sliding towards Stagflation - Global Bond Vigilantes Hooked on Gold / Economics / US Economy
By: Gary_Dorsch
Nowadays, traders of all different stripes are betting on more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the months ahead. Since mid-July, the odds of a US economic recession have been mounting, led by sliding home prices and the first loss of US jobs in four years in August. Sales of new single-family homes fell 8.3% in August to a 795,000 annual sales pace, to stand 21.3% lower from a year ago, and the glut of unsold existing US homes has swelled to the highest in 18-years. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 03, 2007
Greenspan's Dark Legacy Unmasked / Economics / US Economy
By: Stephen_Lendman
After retiring as the Federal Reserve's second longest ever serving chairman, Alan Greenspan is now cashing in big late in life at age 81. He chaired the Fed's Board of Governors from the time he was appointed in August, 1987 to when he stepped down January 31, 2006 amidst a hail of ill-deserved praise for his stewardship during good and perilous times. USA Today noted "the onetime jazz band musician went out on a high note." The Wall Street Journal said "his economic legacy (rests on results) and seems secure." The Washington Post cited his "nearly mythical status." Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 03, 2007
Rising Inflation Expectations Amidst An Inflationary Storm :2008-2009 / Economics / Inflation
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
The average person isn't concerned yet about inflation. They have witnessed and experienced rising costs in food, energy, healthcare and tuition while the government and media consistently proclaim inflation to be low and well contained. Do these people have an ounce of decency? The roots of their corrupt and deceitful behavior can be traced back to a fiat monetary system that operates on debt and inflation, which is a form of counterfeiting. Joe Sixpack knows all this isn't right. But he doesn't know the true cause of rising prices in everyday living expenses, nor does he believe things are unmanageable. At least not yet. To date the Fed has succeeded in obfuscating inflation to the public. They have kept inflation expectations low enough. Though once the public wises up, their confidence game is lost. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, October 02, 2007
Return of Trade Tariff Wars / Economics / Global Financial System
By: Gerard_Jackson
Kevin Rudd is signalling that a Labor Government would introduce another tariff regime. Rudd’s threat basically rests on two arguments, whether he knows it or not: The main one being that tariffs are needed to protect Australian manufacturing before it disappears. Then there is the subsidiary argument that tariffs are needed to protect jobs and real incomes. It is now time to give some basic economic facts another airing:Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 01, 2007
Unpredictable US Economy Ahead / Economics / US Economy
By: Regent_Markets
A new low for the US dollar, and a mixed bag of economic news, gave investors few clues as to what the FOMC might do next with the interest rate.Read full article... Read full article...