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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Wednesday, March 28, 2018

China/Asia Economic Crash Is Starting / Economics / China Economy

By: Chris_Vermeulen

In our previous article regarding the potential China/Asia Economic Implosion, we illustrated how the property market cycles in China (Beijing) are in the early stages of a potentially topping and a massive drop in value.

Today, we are going to try to expand on this analysis a bit further by illustrating how the US and other global established economies may have inadvertently setup certain emerging markets for another global crisis event.  Our research team at Technical Traders Ltd. has developed a unique set of skills in sourcing and evaluating current market events and predictive price modeling systems that allow us to attempt to determine future events with relative certainty.  Within this post, we will attempt to provide further evidence and supporting data as it relates to our belief that we are in a very late stage economic expansion cycle and about to enter a very early stage economic contraction cycle.  As we continue to disclose our research and findings within this multi-part article, we will close this research out by explaining how and why we believe smart investors will be able to create massive opportunities over the next 12 to 48 months from our research.

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Economics

Wednesday, March 28, 2018

China/Asia Economic Implosion on the Horizon? / Economics / China Economy

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Recent news of the US enacting $60 billion in economic tariffs on China as well as reactionary tactics from China have everyone spooked.  The US stock markets and global markets tanked last week as this news hit the wires.  At www.TheTechnicalTraders.com, we have been warning of a massive upside move in precious metals as well as global market concerns for the past 12+ months.  Our recent research shows just how fragile the global markets are to external factors as well as strengths in the US and other established economies.

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Economics

Tuesday, March 27, 2018

Critical US Economic Indication to Watch Out For / Economics / US Economy

By: Rodney_Johnson

Millennials get a bad rap. Sure, they’re the generation that grew up with participation trophies, winning prizes for completing the arduous task of showing up. And with help from their Boomer professors, they have successfully shamed institutions of higher learning, where for centuries debate was considered a search for the truth, into echo chambers of conformity.

I’ve also just learned that this generation has promoted E-sports (that would be watching other people play video games) into such a big deal that the category will get its own E-sports arena in Arlington, Texas.

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Economics

Wednesday, March 21, 2018

Economic Moral Hazards of the International Criminal Court - and Philippines Withdrawal / Economics / Asian Economies

By: Dan_Steinbock

As the Philippines is withdrawing from the International Criminal Court, ICC is blaming the Duterte government. In reality, the withdrawal is still another example of the erosion of the ICC’s credibility, its failure at judicial independence and gross bias against the emerging world.

In February, the ICC said it was investigating allegations that the Philippines president had committed “crimes against humanity” by facilitating extrajudicial killings and other rights abuses in the war against drugs. These charges, which have often relied on flawed data, have been pushed by two Duterte critics. Known for his coup efforts, controversial senator Antonio Trillanes has spent much time in Washington and Europe to gain support, while the obscure Jude Sabio has gained notoriety as a hit man lawyer. What's not known is who funds the two and why leading Western media companies have bought their stories with hardly any source scrutiny.
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Economics

Tuesday, March 20, 2018

Here’s What Inflation Could Look Like in 2020, Based on Past Surges / Economics / Inflation

By: GoldSilver

Jeff Clark, Rising inflation has hit the headlines, sparking some attention from journalists. What most mainstream investors don’t realize, though, is that history shows inflation can quickly get out of control, and not just in some mismanaged third-world country. Surprise spikes in inflation have occurred right here in the US—and given the massive amount of currency dilution around the world over the past decade, a jump in inflation could easily kick in again.

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Economics

Friday, March 16, 2018

South Africa To Copy Zimbabwe Model To Hyperinflation‘Prosperity’ / Economics / HyperInflation

By: Jeff_Berwick

Doesn’t South Africa have the internet yet?  Or, even books?

The new South African finance minister, Nhlanhla Nene, has just come out with an amazing plan to help the people!  He will devalue their money into worthlessness! This always works out well. 

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Economics

Thursday, March 15, 2018

This Isn’t Your Grandfather’s (1960s) Inflation Scare / Economics / Inflation

By: F_F_Wiley

“This reminds me of the late 1960s when we experimented with low rates and fiscal stimulus to keep the economy at full employment and fund the Vietnam War. Today we don’t have a recession, let alone a war. We are setting the stage for accelerating inflation, just as we did in the late ‘60s.”—Paul Tudor Jones

As soon as the GOP followed its long-promised tax cuts with damn-the-deficit spending increases (who cares about the kids, right?), you knew to be ready for the Lyndon B. Johnson reminders.

And it’s worth remembering that LBJ pushed federal spending higher, pushed his central bank chairman against the wall (figuratively and, by several accounts, also literally) and eventually pushed inflation to post–Korean War highs.

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Economics

Wednesday, March 14, 2018

China Toward Sustainable Economic Growth / Economics / China Economy

By: Dan_Steinbock

In the past, Chinese growth was too much fueled by credit. Now it is becoming more sustainable and the emphasis is shifting on living standards, poverty reduction and environmental protection.

In his annual work report, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said on Monday that China aims to expand its economy by around 6.5 percent this year, or the same as in 2017.

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Economics

Sunday, March 11, 2018

An Inflation Indicator to Watch, Part 3 / Economics / Inflation

By: F_F_Wiley

“During the 1980s and 1990s, most industrial-country central banks were able to cage, if not entirely tame, the inflation dragon.”
—Ben Bernanke

Ben Bernanke began his oft-cited “helicopter speech” in 2002 with a few kind words about his peers, including the excerpt above. Speaking for central bankers, he took a large share of the credit for the low inflation of the 1980s and 1990s. Central bankers had gained a “heightened understanding” of inflation, he said, and he expected the future to bring even more inflation-taming success.

Of course, Bernanke’s cohorts took a few knocks in the boom–bust cycle that followed his speech, but their reputations as masters of inflation (and deflation) only grew. Today, the picture he painted seems even more firmly planted in the public mind than it was in 2002, notwithstanding recent data showing inflation creeping higher.

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Economics

Friday, March 09, 2018

Here’s What The Trade Tariffs Really Mean / Economics / Protectionism

By: Rodney_Johnson

Every day, you plunk out cash to support your neighbors. And they support you. That’s how economies work.

I buy from my local store, which employs people, and I use local services. Even when I buy from Amazon, the stuff has to get here somehow.

We also pay taxes, much of which goes to services that employ and support people in the community. In this instance, you can think of the entire nation as your community.

So, how much of your cash are you willing to give to your neighbors?

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Economics

Thursday, March 08, 2018

China Is Leading a Once-in-a-Generation Shift to Inflation / Economics / Inflation

By: John_Mauldin

By Patrick Watson : At the Strategic Investment Conference 2018, Louis Gave, co-founder and CEO of Gavekal Research, talked about “game-changing policy shifts” and massive social changes that are underway in China.

One of the most notable changes is Xi Jinping’s effort to pull the Chinese economy away from pollution-heavy industries. Cement, steel, and textile industries are under pressure—they are forced to cut back production and reduce supply.

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Economics

Wednesday, March 07, 2018

How Chinese Economic Growth Is Changing / Economics / China Economy

By: Dan_Steinbock

What many international observers continue to miss is that the deceleration of growth in China goes hand in hand with rapidly-rising living standards.

In his annual work report, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said on Monday that China aims to expand its economy by around 6.5 percent this year.

While some of the leading international media reported the new growth target factually, others portrayed it as a “slowdown” that could even undermine global growth prospects.

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Economics

Saturday, March 03, 2018

Maybe The Economy Is Too Good For Investors / Economics / US Economy

By: WMA

In the early 19th century, London financier Nathan Rothschild said “buy on the sound of cannons, sell on the trumpets”.  The cannons referred to the start of war (valuations are therefore attractive as disorder begins) and the trumpets refer to the peace treaty ending the conflict (at which time timid investors pile back into risky financial assets). Warren Buffet has often reiterated the same idea first enounced by Rothschild saying “buy when there is blood in the streets” (eg, when valuations are very low).  

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Economics

Tuesday, February 27, 2018

US Goldilocks Economy is DEAD! / Economics / US Economy

By: James_Quinn

“Once you strip out the effects of the debt binge, the artificial stimulus via currency depreciation, and the fabled ‘wealth effect’ from the equity market runup, real GDP growth stripped-down to its core was the grand total of 0.7% last year. Potemkin would be proud.” – David Rosenberg

appears every president finds the religion of false economic narrative once they ascend to power. Trump never stops babbling and tweeting about the fantastic economy and raging jobs market since his election. He has embraced the stock market bubble as proof of his brilliant leadership, rather than the tens of trillions in debt propping up the most overvalued market in world history. Every president takes credit for any good news, spins bad news as good news, or blames the previous president for bad news that can’t be denied. The president has absolutely zero impact on the economy or stock market over the short term. It’s like taking credit for the sun rising in the east each morning.

The Big Lie method works wonders when you have a willfully ignorant, mathematically challenged, easily manipulated populace. I spent the entire Obama presidency obliterating the fake economic data perpetuated by his BLS, BEA and every other government agency trying to paint a rosy economic picture. I voted for Trump because the thought of Crooked Hillary as the president made me ill. Despite disagreeing with many of his economic, budgetary, and military policies during his first year in office, I’d vote for him again over Hillary in an instant. The thought of having that evil shrew running the country gives me chills.

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Economics

Monday, February 26, 2018

An Inflation Indicator to Watch, Part 2 / Economics / Inflation

By: F_F_Wiley

“Inflation comes from too much money chasing too few goods.” –Many an economics professor

But does it really?

In Part 1 of this series, I said I would challenge popular beliefs about inflation, while at the same time proposing an alternative theory. I also promised that the theory leads to an inflation indicator with an excellent prediction record, and I’ll define the indicator in this article. Considering inflation determines bull and bear markets in both stocks and bonds, that’s my big pitch.

But first, here’s a recap.

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Economics

Wednesday, February 21, 2018

5 Big Drivers of Higher Inflation Rates Ahead / Economics / Inflation

By: MoneyMetals

Investors got lulled into a state of inflation complacency. Persistently low official inflation rates in recent years depressed bond yields along with risk premiums on all financial assets.

That’s changing in 2018. Five drivers of higher inflation rates are now starting to kick in.

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Economics

Monday, February 19, 2018

How Inflation Reduces The Real Value Of Social Security Net Of Medicare Premiums / Economics / Government Spending

By: Dan_Amerman

For most retirees age 65 and over, the spending power which they rely on from government retirement programs is their Social Security benefits after their Medicare Part B premiums have been withheld.

Because Social Security is in theory supposed to be fully inflation indexed, many people believe their standards of living in retirement will be fully protected from inflation. However, when we look at what matters the most, which is the purchasing power of Social Security net of Medicare premiums - that particular number has never been intended to keep up with the rate of inflation, as a matter of design.

Current retirees have received a rude wake-up call in recent years, with the increases in their Medicare Part B premiums consuming almost all of their very small increases in Social Security benefits. This is a process that is, however, still in its early stages. Particularly if higher rates of inflation are indeed returning, then the impact on retiree standards of living may be swift, powerful and sustained.

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Economics

Sunday, February 18, 2018

An Inflation Indicator to Watch, Part 1 / Economics / Inflation

By: F_F_Wiley

“Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.”—Milton Friedman

Have you ever questioned Milton Friedman’s famous claim about inflation?

Ever heard anyone else question it?

Unless you read obscure stuff written for the academic community, you’re probably not used to Friedman’s quote being challenged. And that’s despite a lousy forecasting record by economists who bought into his Monetarist methods.

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Economics

Monday, February 12, 2018

Bitcoin: Neither a Borrower Nor a Lender Be / Economics / Bitcoin

By: EconMatters

Bitcoin had rocketed from $900 to almost $20,000 in 2017.  We discussed why Bitcoin is a really bad investment for any investors and how 20% of Bitcoin owners took out debt in this get-rich-quick gamble.

It could all work out for everyone involved if Bitcoin were to continue its run towards $25,000 or even $60,000 according to some overly zealous predictions.  The problem is Bitcoin has crashed to around $8,600 as I write this post today.  Central banks like PBOC are moving to tighten oversight of bitcoin exchanges.  Banks have banned purchasing bitcoins using their credit cards.

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Economics

Monday, February 12, 2018

The Philippine Economic Dream Could Be Within the Reach  / Economics / Emerging Markets

By: Dan_Steinbock

If the government’s focus remains on inclusive economic development, the Philippines could become a bright spot in the global landscape.

Today, there is a huge gap between the Philippines as it is portrayed by many international observers and the country’s fundamental economic realities.

The Duterte win was the triumph of ordinary Filipinos. Accordingly, there is only one way for the government to succeed. It must deliver the country’s economic promise.

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