Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Bair Admits FDIC in the Red Until 2012 / Economics / Credit Crisis 2009
By: Mike_Shedlock
Counting projected losses FDIC bank fund in the red until 2012.
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Saturday, October 17, 2009
United States Has Caught the Japanese Economic Disease, Who Will buy Our Debt? / Economics / Great Depression II
By: John_Mauldin
Muddle Through, R.I.P?
Savings Equal Investments
Japanese Disease
Who Will Buy the Debt?
The New Muddle Through Economy
I first wrote about the Muddle Through Economy in 2002, and the term has more or less become a theme we have returned to from time to time. In 2007 I wrote that we would indeed get back to a Muddle Through Economy after the end of the coming recession. If you Google the term, at least for the first four pages more than half the references are to this e-letter. I get a lot of flak from both bulls and bears about being either too optimistic or too pessimistic. Being in the muddle through middle is comfortable to me.
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Saturday, October 17, 2009
U.S. State Tax Revenue Drops Most Since 1963 / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
Bloomberg is reporting State Revenue Falls Most Since 1963 on Incomes, Sales.
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Saturday, October 17, 2009
Karl Marx Predicted Collapse of US Dollar in 1857 / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Pravda
The great October fall of the US dollar is turning into an avalanche. On Tuesday, the American currency lost nine kopeks in Russia and reached a new minimum mark this year - 29.5 rubles per dollar. Within six months (April through September) the dollar lost over 10 percent at the world foreign exchange trading, which marked the sharpest decline since 1991. Some experts believe that the American currency is close to collapse, which may lead to a new financial crisis.
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Saturday, October 17, 2009
Is the Real Economy Growing, Expanding, and Making Money? / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Bill_Bonner
What a marvelous flimflam! So obvious...and yet so effective! It's a pleasure to watch.
Yesterday, the Dow soared over they 10,000 mark. If it keeps going at this rate – up 144 points yesterday – it will soon equal the post-'29 bounce. All we need is two more days and we're there.
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Saturday, October 17, 2009
The Importance of Gresham's Money Law and Fed Bad Money / Economics / Fiat Currency
By: Gary_North
"Bad money drives out good money." This aphorism has been known as Gresham's Law for almost 500 years. Sir Thomas Gresham never said it exactly like this. The statement is wrong in its familiar form.
Bad money does not drive out good money in a free market. The free market rewards producers of customer-satisfying products and services. Good money drives out bad money on a free market. The definition of bad money is money that the free market refuses to use. Gresham's law, as stated, is incorrect. The opposite is true.
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Saturday, October 17, 2009
Fed Strategy Working, Higher Stock Prices Point to Rising Economic Optimism / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Bryan_Rich
If you consider all of the structural problems in the U.S. economy, there has not been a lot of progress toward getting things back on track. The root causes of what created the near debilitating financial and economic crisis still remain:
Saturday, October 17, 2009
Japan a Deflation Death? - Nope Stagflation / Economics / Stagflation
By: Phill_Tomlinson
Gordon Brown this week announced what can only be described as a car boot sale of UK PLC's bric-a-brac goods, an attempt to sooth markets regarding the budget deficit. Many of the items have been for sale before, but I'm sure the government in their current desperation will be willing to accept lower offers this time around. I agree with privatisation in getting the state out of our lives, but a student loan book and a crossing in Kent are hardly big ticket items, never mind the fact that they are assets that generate money.
Saturday, October 17, 2009
Inflation and Government Deficits, Milton Friedman's View / Economics / Inflation
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
Before getting started on this month's essay, I would like to say something about last month's chart show. I received a number of favorable comments about the different format. I have to admit that my ego was bruised a bit. I thought you liked my prosaic prose. My ego notwithstanding, I will try to give the customers what they want more often - just not every month. The reason for not providing a chart show every month is that not enough changes that frequently to warrant such. So, this month you are stuck with the prosaic prose. And because not that much has changed from last month save for stronger-than-previously expected consumer spending in the third quarter, I am going to discuss two issues that are getting a lot of ink of late rather than spending time discussing the updated forecast.
Friday, October 16, 2009
Economic Recovery Euphoria, Ignorance Is Bliss / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Peter_Schiff
While all the talk at present is about economic corners turned and markets charging ahead, no one is paying much notice to an American economy deteriorating before our eyes. These myopic commentators seem to be simply moving past the now almost-universally held conclusion that before the crash of 2008, our economy was on an unsustainable course. If these imbalances had been corrected, then perhaps I too would be joining in the euphoria. But evidence abounds that we have not veered at all from that dangerous path.
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Friday, October 16, 2009
The Flip Side of a Jobless Economic Recovery / Economics / Employment
By: Andy_Sutton
Perhaps one of the most preposterous statements made during the ongoing financial crisis was by Ben Bernanke when he stated that we would have a ‘jobless recovery’. Certainly this is not a new term, but that doesn’t change the fact that in concept, the idea that a real recovery can occur with rising unemployment seems pretty ludicrous. Again, the devil is in the details and it all comes back to how you define your terminology and ask “A recovery for whom?”
Friday, October 16, 2009
Greenspan a Decade Behind the Curve / Economics / Central Banks
By: Brady_Willett
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan is the worst Fed boss in history, but boy-oh-boy how we loved to watch him smile. We were so attracted to Mr. Greenspan’s girlish grin, in fact, that he could say just about anything and people would eat it up: “I guess I should warn you, if I turn out to be particularly clear, you've probably misunderstood what I've said”. How delightfully playful! He really must be the world’s best central banker!
Thursday, October 15, 2009
Reviving the Economy with Publicly Owned Banks / Economics / Credit Crisis 2009
By: Ellen_Brown
The credit crunch is getting worse on Main Street, despite a Wall Street bailout that is now in the trillions of dollars. The Federal Reserve's charts show that "base money" is rapidly expanding - meaning coins, paper money, and commercial banks' reserves with the central bank. But the money isn't making it to where it needs to go to stimulate economic growth: into the bank accounts of American businesses and consumers. The Fed has been pumping out money to the banks, and their reserves have been growing at unprecedented rates; but the money supply in the real economy has been declining.
Thursday, October 15, 2009
A Theory of Socialism and Capitalism / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Mark_Thornton
In the wake of the downfall of the Berlin Wall, the breakup of the Soviet Union, and the emergence of capitalism in China, I was asked to teach the comparative-economic-systems class at Auburn University for the summer term in 1989. My only exposure to the topic had been as an undergraduate student, where my teacher was a Cold War–era professor who concentrated almost exclusively on the Soviet Union. His implicit message was to fear the Soviet Union, which would soon come to smother the American dream.
Thursday, October 15, 2009
U.S. CPI Deflation for 7th Consecutive Month / Economics / Deflation
By: Mike_Shedlock
Bloomberg is reporting Consumer Prices in U.S. Increased at Slower Pace
Thursday, October 15, 2009
Economists are Committed to the Expansion of Fiat Counterfeit Money / Economics / Fiat Currency
By: Gary_North
When someone announces the discovery of a new oil field, most people rejoice. There are exceptions. Owners of existing oil wells don't. Growth-hating environmentalists don't. But for most people, a new oil field means an additional supply of a scarce resource. It means slightly lower prices for the resource. What is good for the person who owns the oil field is good for almost everyone else.
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
Global Economic Growth Trends, The Falling Value of the U.S. Dollar / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Hans_Wagner
Global growth trends are important factors that significantly influence the opportunities for investors. In the first article, we discussed the long-term employment problem within the United States that will cause the economic recover to be weaker than previous recoveries. In this article, we are addressing the three of the important fundamental factors encouraging U.S. dollar’s down trend.
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
WSJ Inane Understanding of Economic Theory / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
Increase Employment the Same Way You Increase Home Sales - Every month in its survey of economists' forecasts, the WSJ asks various inane questions. In its latest survey, one of the questions had to do with what the government could do to increase employment. Now that health-care "reform" appears to be on its way to being a done deal, the D.C. issue du jour is employment stimulus. Various kinds of employer-tax incentives are in the initial stages of being proposed. Of course, the editorial board of the WSJ, which has never encountered a tax cut it did not encourage, is lobbying for a cut in the Social Security payroll tax. Good idea if the WSJ editorial board also argues for an equal cut in Social Security benefit payments. Fat chance of that occurring - i.e., a cut in Social Security benefit payments.
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Tuesday, October 13, 2009
Ponzi Finance Deflationary Debt Deleveraging Downward Spiral Continues / Economics / Deflation
By: John_Mauldin
I look forward at the beginning of every quarter to receiving the Quarterly Outlook from Hoisington Investment Management. They have been prominent proponents of the view that deflation is the problem, stemming from a variety of factors, and write about their views in a very clear and concise manner. This quarter's letter is no exception, where they once again delve into the history books to bring up fresh and relevant lessons for today. This is a must read piece.
Monday, October 12, 2009
Refuting Keynes, Line-by-Line / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Gary_North
If I were a young man, I would not share this. I would implement it. It would become the foundation of my academic career.
The Austrian School of economics, more than any other, is built on the idea of the centrality of entrepreneurship. Ludwig von Mises explained the principle profit and loss in terms of some forecasters' ability to foresee consumer demand, and then plan to meet it at a total cost below the sales price. Successful entrepreneurs gain profit as a residual. Unsuccessful entrepreneurs gain losses.
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