Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, November 02, 2009
Financial Markets Look to Central Banks on Quantitative Easing Policy / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Lloyds_TSB
Today's main economic data releases are the US ISM manufacturing and UK PMI manufacturing surveys for October, both expected to register modest improvements. Final October PMI data are published for the euro-zone, following the recent 'flash' estimates.
Sunday, November 01, 2009
The Nanny State and the Cost of Unfunded Government Liabilities / Economics / Economic Theory
By: James_Quinn
“We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable rights, that among these are life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. That to secure these rights, governments are instituted among men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed. That whenever any form of government becomes destructive to these ends, it is the right of the people to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their safety and happiness.” Declaration of Independence
Sunday, November 01, 2009
Obama Goes Wobbly Over More Economic Stimulus / Economics / Economic Stimulus
By: Mike_Whitney
The recession is over. Thursdays report from the Commerce Dept. confirmed that the economy expanded in the third quarter by 3.5 percent, better than most economists estimates. GDP had contracted in the four previous quarters in the longest and deepest recession since the Great Depression. Massive government stimulus, cash for clunkers, and inventory restocking accounted for most of the surge in economic activity.
Sunday, November 01, 2009
Economic Crisis in the Post-industrial Age / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Sergey_A_Stroev
Already in the second half of the past century such insightful thinkers as Daniel Bell and Alvin Toffler discerned the beginnings of the transition from the industrial to the information level of social development. By the end of the 20th century and especially today this awareness has become almost universal. The question is now not whether the information society is real, but rather how to define its still forming structure, what are the contradictions that determine the dynamics of its development.
Saturday, October 31, 2009
Halloween and it's Candy Economy / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Jeffrey_A_Tucker
Dale Steinreich once wrote that Halloween has a "socialist tenor" because "menacing figures arrive at your door uninvited, demand your property, and threaten to perform an unspecified 'trick' if you don't fork over. That's the way the government works in a nutshell."
And yet, for overall kid excitement, Halloween seems to surpass Christmas, at least from what I can observe. The kids spend months preparing their costumes, and thrill to every detail of the ceremony: pumpkins, scary things, and of course candy. For the children, too, there is the attractive fact that parents are not all that happy about Halloween with its goblins, gore, and gluttony.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, October 31, 2009
The US Recession Is Not Over, But The Party Is / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Andrew_Butter
“Technically” it’s over, perhaps, but that 3.5% annualized was entirely due to the government borrowing money and giving it to people to spend on things that will not generate long-term economic value:
Cash for Clunkers (1%) + $8,000 New Homebuyers (1%) + Government Spending (0.5%) + This and That (1%) = 3.5%.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, October 31, 2009
United States Catching the Argentinian Economic Disease of Hyperinflation? / Economics / US Debt
By: John_Mauldin
Catching Argentinian Disease?
The Ascent of Money
The Independence of the Fed Threatened
A Few Quick Thoughts on the Dollar, GDP, and the Recession
I have been in South America this week, speaking nine times in five days, interspersed with lots of meetings. The conversation kept coming back to the prospects for the dollar, but I was just as interested in talking with money managers and business people who had experienced the hyperinflation of Argentina and Brazil. How could such a thing happen? As it turned out, I was reading a rather remarkable book that addressed that question. There are those who believe that the United States is headed for hyperinflation because of our large and growing government fiscal deficit and massive future liabilities (as much as $56 trillion) for Medicare and Social Security.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 30, 2009
Our Enemy the State / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Christopher_Quigley
A Tribute to Mr. Raymond Crotty 1925-1994Economics Lecturer Trinity College Dublin, Ireland.
"Our Enemy the State", so said Raymond Crotty in 1988 in his book "A Radical's Response". In this treatise Mr. Crotty, former farmer and economics lecturer at Trinity College, tried to explain why Ireland should not have joined the EEC. Through his efforts the constitution was correctly used to try to protect the Irish people from what he saw as abuse of privilege by an immoral political class that usurped power from the British in 1922. This class, he believed, were using the resources of the Irish people for their own selfish benefit.
Friday, October 30, 2009
Ready for inflation in finance, living costs and bone-headed stupidity...? / Economics / Inflation
By: Adrian_Ash
SINCE MONEY MAKES the world go round, more of it would set the earth spinning faster, right? Which would be a good thing, of course...
Friday, October 30, 2009
U.S. GDP Surprise Due to Government Interventions / Economics / Economic Stimulus
By: Peter_Schiff
The GDP numbers out yesterday, which showed economic growth at 3.5% in the third quarter, brought a deafening chorus from public and private economists who all agreed that the recession is officially over. With such a strong report, they are happy to tell us that not only has the Fat Lady finished her aria, but she has left the building and is sipping champagne in the bath. As usual, it falls on me to rain on the parade.
Friday, October 30, 2009
Unemployment Falls at State Level as People Drop Out of Workforce, Costco Nationwide Food Stamps / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Trader_Mark
A couple of items from the "real economy" - we have not had much time to focus on that this week as we lather ourselves in Kool Aid of federal government/central bank fiat money and all the good it does for us chosen folk in the speculator class.
Friday, October 30, 2009
Stimulus Nation / Economics / Economic Stimulus
By: Andy_Sutton
The result really wasn’t all that surprising. The reaction wasn’t either. On Thursday morning the Commerce Department released its advance GDP reading and proclaimed the end of the recession by asserting the American economy ‘grew’ at an annualized rate of 3.5% in the third quarter. A previous commentary already pointed out the fact that government borrowing shouldn’t be counted in GDP calculations anyway, so I’ll not repeat that exercise. Certainly there isn’t much to say on this topic that hasn’t already been said. However, there are some salient points that have been glossed over that are worth mentioning.
Friday, October 30, 2009
Krugman, The Gold Standard and the Great Depression / Economics / Economic Depression
By: Robert_Murphy
Paul Krugman has concentrated his fire recently on those "thumping their chests" over the falling dollar. He has particular scorn for those recommending a return to the gold standard. In Krugman's view, a simple look at the historical facts will show that it was a superstitious fetish for the yellow metal that prolonged the Great Depression.
Friday, October 30, 2009
After Strong U.S. GDP, Markets Look to Chicago PMI and University of Michigan Consumer Confidence / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Lloyds_TSB
Following stronger-than-market-expected US gdp data yesterday (figures met our projections), the financial markets are likely to see-saw as usual today. US data releases will dominate today as well, with personal income, spending, the price deflator, Chicago PMI and University of Michigan consumer confidence due out. With gdp figures for Q3 showing a rise in consumer spending of 3.4% annualised, the likelihood is that personal spending for September may not fall as much as the consensus suggests, though income may well stay flat.
Thursday, October 29, 2009
Emerging Market Economies in the New World Disorder / Economics / Emerging Markets
By: TheDailyReckoning
Chris Mayer writes: In horse racing, a match race is when two horses race against each other. One of the most famous such races happened at Pimlico, when Seabiscuit beat War Admiral in November 1938.
Thursday, October 29, 2009
Does a Fall in Bank Credit Lead to Deflation? / Economics / Deflation
By: Frank_Shostak
US credit is undergoing a major contraction. In the week ending October 14, US commercial-bank lending stood at $5,686.8 billion: a fall of 6.6% from the end of January.[1] Year on year, loans fell by 7% in October after declining by 5.8% in September. On the same basis of comparison, in October last year, loans increased by 6.6%.
Thursday, October 29, 2009
Dangerous Inflationary Side Effects of G20 Ultra-Easy Money / Economics / Inflation
By: Gary_Dorsch
Operating under the elixir of ultra-low interest rates, and flush with trillions of fiat currency at their disposal, courtesy of the world’s top-20 central banks, hedge funds and banking Oligarchs are once again making risky and daring bets in commodities, emerging markets, junk bonds, and blue-chip stocks, defying gravity with trades that would have been un-thinkable just six-months ago.
Thursday, October 29, 2009
U.S. Q3 GDP, Watch the Consumer Component / Economics / US Economy
By: Ashraf_Laidi
Aside from whether US Q3 GDP growth will stand above the 3.0%, markets will watch the contribution from the US consumer versus that of inventory restocking. Personal consumption expenditure (PCE) is expected +3.0% after -0.9% and +0.6% in Q2 and Q1. Risk appetite will particularly welcome any evidence of a consumer-led recovery, in which case could prove positive for equities and risk currencies (EUR, GBP, CAD, AUD, NZD). In the event that a rise in inventory accumulation overshadows the increase in personal consumption, a rally in risk assets (equities, commodities and higher yielding currencies) would be accompanied by renewed pressure in USD and JPY.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 29, 2009
The Myth of "Free" Enterprise Economic System / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Robert_Singer
Free enterprise, also called free market, is an economy governed by the laws of supply and demand, not restrained by government interference, regulation or subsidy.
Command economy is basically a slave enterprise where supply and price are regulated by the government rather than market forces.
The only thing I will agree with about the “law of supply and demand” is that supply at a downward-manipulated price, can create demand.
Downward manipulation is an uneconomic aberration first discovered in the precious metals market by the noted silver analyst, Ted Butler.
Thursday, October 29, 2009
The Next Economic Crisis, Spiralling Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Nick_Barisheff
As the credit crisis ends, a bigger one is just beginning
“The US government has a technology, called a printing press… that allows it to produce as many US dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost.” – Ben Bernanke
The US economy contracted for four consecutive quarters since October 2008, something we have not seen since the Great Depression. A V-shaped recovery is simply not in the cards because the credit crisis has caused deep, systemic damage. Having said that, if the recession ends this year, it certainly won’t be because the global economy is healthy.
Read full article... Read full article...