Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, October 06, 2009
Whalen Says Real Economy Is Dying, Q4 Bloodbath / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Submissions
Stocks rallied to start the week thanks to a better-than-expected ISM services sector report and a Goldman Sachs upgrade of big banks, including Wells Fargo, Comerica and Capital One.
But all is not right in either the economy or the banking sector, according to Christopher Whalen, managing director at Institutional Risk Analytics. In fact, Whalen says most observers are drawing the wrong economic conclusions from the stock market's robust rally.
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Tuesday, October 06, 2009
Paul Krugman Would Fail as a Businessman / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Eric_Englund
Recently, I traveled to Idaho to meet with several customers over a two-day period. As a surety bond underwriter, I predominantly deal with small-to-medium sized public works and commercial contractors. My objectives, for each meeting, were to gain a better understanding of local market conditions, to see if a viable business plan was in place for each contractor, and to determine which clients would survive this vicious economic downturn.
Tuesday, October 06, 2009
Strengthening Economic Data for UK, U.S. Economies / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Lloyds_TSB
After the recent spate of weak economic data, this week began on a more positive note, with yesterday's service sector reports in the UK and US both surprising on the upside. The UK CIPS services sector PMI was particularly firm, with the index rising from 54.1 in August to 55.3 in September - its strongest pace of expansion in two years. That conditions in UK services are improving was also signalled in the latest financial services report from the Confederation of British Industry, which showed confidence amongst UK financial services firms rising for the first time since the start of the credit crisis in 2007.
Monday, October 05, 2009
Global Ageing Population Financial and Economic Crisis Brewing / Economics / Demographics
By: John_Mauldin
We all know that a large wave of Baby Boomers in the US are approaching retirement. But what about the rest of the world? And what happens when those retirees need to spend out of savings? There is more than just a credit crisis and a government deficit crisis in our future. A rising level of retirrees to workers is happening even as I write. And the US is not, for once, the center of the problem. As this week's writer of your Outside the Box Niels Jensen explains, we cannot all export our way out of the problem. There is a global adjustment that must happen and when it does, it will have serious consequences for all. This week's letter is guaranteed to make you think. Set aside a few minutes to do so.
Monday, October 05, 2009
Currency Crisis Lesson from War Ravaged Iraq / Economics / Fiat Currency
By: Edward_Gonzalez
There has been much ado concerning the Federal Reserve's doubling of the monetary base this past year. Many believe a currency crisis or hyperinflation of the dollar is imminent. Some go as far as to say that this crisis will destroy America.
Monday, October 05, 2009
Deflation Threat? What Deflation Threat? / Economics / Deflation
By: Mike_Shedlock
The deflation "recognition phase" has finally arrived. Kroger foods, Costco, and Walmart are blaming deflation for a drop in earnings. Moreover, many high profile names are discussing deflation, something most thought could never happen.
Monday, October 05, 2009
Government Reports Point to Fiscal Doomsday / Economics / US Debt
By: Martin_D_Weiss
When our leaders have no awareness of the disastrous consequences of their actions, they can claim ignorance and take no action.
Or when our leaders have no hard evidence as to what might happen in the future, they can at least claim uncertainty.
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Monday, October 05, 2009
In Praise of Emerging Markets Investing / Economics / Emerging Markets
By: John_Derrick
If you believe now is a good time to invest in U.S. stocks, emerging markets may offer even more opportunity.
We believe global growth is the most powerful investment theme now and for the foreseeable future. You can see this playing out as countries like China, India and Brazil grow in economic stature. As we saw in Pittsburgh last week, the G-7 is being supplanted by the more inclusive G-20 when it comes to global economic decision-making.
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Monday, October 05, 2009
Housing Rents Deflationary Impact on CPI Inflation Data / Economics / Deflation
By: Mike_Shedlock
In Bill Gross Bets On Deflation I posted some links on falling rent prices courtesy of Lansler on Real Estate. Here is a recap.
Monday, October 05, 2009
What is Really Happening to the U.S. Economy? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Gerard_Jackson
While America's corrupt media ties itself in knots trying to put a smiley face on the recession the economic commentariat is thrashing around in the hope of finding an explanation for the economy's refusal to respond to Obama's policies (most of them overlook the fact that the economy might be doing just that) and Bernanke's criminally loose monetary policy. There is no doubt in my mind that business -- big and small -- is taking into account Obama's impending flood of taxes as well as the political support he is throwing behind job-destroying unions. I believe an administration -- any administration -- that ignores business expectations is committing a grave error of judgment.
Monday, October 05, 2009
Faltering World Economic Recovery? / Economics / Global Economy
By: Lloyds_TSB
It would be nice and easy to believe that the road to economic recovery is now clear and straightforward after the financial market crash of 2007-2009. Equity markets have had one of the best quarters ever, corporate and government bond yields have fallen sharply and spreads, in cash and corporate bonds, are narrower than at any time since the crisis gathered momentum in 2008. Economic growth has resumed in Q2 or Q3 of 2009 for most economies after a year of declines. Housing markets (US, UK, Spain, Ireland) are seeing a flattening in activity after the sharp falls of the past year or some modest up-tick. And manufacturing output is recovering from its lows in most countries. But there are some signs that the pace of the recovery is losing momentum and faltering. We look at some of these issues in this Weekly Report, starting with recent trends in financial markets.
Monday, October 05, 2009
Unemployment Economic Theory and the U.S. Dollar / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Howard_Katz
Gold made a quick dip to the $990 area on Friday and then whipped around to close above $1,000. We cannot completely rule out one final pull back to $960. However, the U.S. dollar is in free fall. So any dip in gold will be very brief.
Sunday, October 04, 2009
On the Edge With Max Keiser, Risk of Deflationary Economic Collapse / Economics / Deflation
By: Mike_Shedlock
Janet Tavakoli is On The Edge With Max Keiser. Tavakoli says the Risk of deflationary collapse greater now than in 2007.
Sunday, October 04, 2009
An Engineer's Solution for Sustained Economic Growth / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Steve_Morra
Sustained or increased economic chaos is the likely result of the public solutions offered for the worldwide macro-economic decline as of late 2009. Comparing simple historical economic data with public rhetoric, the solutions offered promise further economic decline past recession into depression and beyond for the vast majority of our micro-economic futures. It is time to publicly look at the “Golden Goose” in technical history to find a realistic solution with sustained economic growth.
Sunday, October 04, 2009
U.S. Real Deflation of -5.1% on Case Shiller CPI / Economics / Deflation
By: Mike_Shedlock
Case-Shiller CPI is formulated by substituting the Case-Shiller housing index for Owner's Equivalent Rent in the CPI. For a complete description of the reasons and methodology, please see What's the Real CPI?
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Sunday, October 04, 2009
IMF Optimistic About Russian Economy in 2010 / Economics / Russia
By: Pravda
The International Monetary Fund published a report about the situation in the Russian economy in 2010. The nation’s GDP will drop by 7.5 percent in 2009, which is a larger number than in the previous report, but a smaller one if compared with the expectations of the Russian government. As for the next year, the IMF is more optimistic about it and expects a 1.5-percent growth of the GDP.
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Saturday, October 03, 2009
The Economic Recovery is an Illusion / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Andrew_G_Marshall
War is Peace, Freedom is Slavery, Ignorance is Strength, and Debt is Recovery
In light of the ever-present and unyieldingly persistent exclamations of ‘an end’ to the recession, a ‘solution’ to the crisis, and a ‘recovery’ of the economy; we must remember that we are being told this by the very same people and institutions which told us, in years past, that there was ‘nothing to worry about,’ that ‘the fundamentals are fine,’ and that there was ‘no danger’ of an economic crisis.
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Saturday, October 03, 2009
The Economy and Debt, A Pragmatic View / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Brian_Bloom
In Australia (as in many other countries of the world), our Federal Government’s reaction to the financial crisis was to distribute money in the form of “gifts”. Their intentions were supposedly honorable. They wanted to stimulate the economy. In the first instance, they wanted to stimulate the construction industry because housing is a very important element of the economy. So they offered the gift of a significant cash rebate (funded by taxpayer money) to first home buyers. What was the impact of this?
Friday, October 02, 2009
Financial Markets & Economic Warning Signals Flashing, Prepare to Protect and Profit / Economics / Great Depression II
By: DeepCaster_LLC
“August New Orders for Durable Goods Remained in Great Depression Territory…
Economic and Liquidity Crises Remain Ongoing No Recovery in New Orders or Housing Fed Pushes Monetary Base to Record High
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Friday, October 02, 2009
Is A Double Dip Recession Possible? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Sy_Harding
The economic slowdown and severity of the stock market decline last year, and in January and February of this year, had the financial media and investors convinced the recession was headed down into the next Great Depression, and the Dow was therefore headed down to 1,000.