Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, November 16, 2009
Only a New Credit Bubble (that isn’t coming) Staves Off Deflation / Economics / Liquidity Bubble
By: Chris_Galakoutis
The next issue I wanted to write about in this post is this whole notion of ballooning reserves at the Fed, and how we get to hyperinflation if this money were to ever be lent out and multiplied across the economy. Reserves might have gone from 10 Billion in August 2008, to about 1 Trillion today, but in fact, this money is not being lent out – it is simply sitting there at the Fed, earning interest.
Monday, November 16, 2009
U.S. Unemployment Projected Scenarios For the Next 10 Years / Economics / UK Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Last week in Mish Unemployment Projections Through 2020 I posted a chart and tables of what unemployment might look like in what is best described as an optimistic "muddle through" scenario with no recessions for another decade.
Sunday, November 15, 2009
Deficit Doubles for Government's Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp / Economics / US Debt
By: Trader_Mark
So many future bailouts to look forward to, so little time. So many cans do kick down the road via accounting adjustments, so few feet do keep doing the kicking. While I read this piece I was struck by my own reaction... not even $30 billion in deficit? This is peanuts! We've become so numb to bailouts that anything less than hundreds of billions seems like a normal part of Bailout Nation. Yet just over a decade ago the world was in a panic over hedge fund Long Term Capital and its gaping hole of $3.6 billion.
Sunday, November 15, 2009
Not so fast Australia! / Economics / Austrailia
By: Kevin_George
The “lucky country” managed to live up to its name in becoming the only industrialized country to escape recession.
Sunday, November 15, 2009
What Is At Stake With Free Trade / Economics / Global Economy
By: Shamus_Cooke
In the ten years since the World Trade Organization (WTO) protests in Seattle, global opposition to free trade and “globalization” has exploded. The general public now has a basic understanding of how the world economy works … against them: companies scour the globe searching for slave wages, which help push down wages in “developed” countries; any regulation that reduces profits — environmental, financial, labor, etc. — is destroyed or ignored.
Sunday, November 15, 2009
The New Command Economy Impact on Stocks and Crude Oil / Economics / Economic Stimulus
By: Christopher_Wood
One week on and sentiment, judging by meetings with US investors over the past week, has again shifted to the “melt up” into year end. If the failure of the stock market to respond more positively to the last two monthly ISM data points is a cautionary signal, the break out of the oil price in recent weeks after four months of sideways consolidation around the US$70/bbl level is the sort of market action likely to be associated with a “melt up” (see Figure 1). This is because oil is for now a proxy for risk.
Saturday, November 14, 2009
China's Phony GDP Growth Data, Evidence Ordos the Empty City / Economics / China Economy
By: Trader_Mark
Just a fascinating video below showing how China is achieving these "consistent" GDP growth numbers [Aug 5, 2009: China's Provincial Growth Figures Far Overstated versus National Figures]. Obviously on a relative basis the country is doing far better than many in the world but trying to figure out what is actually happening inside is guesswork.
Saturday, November 14, 2009
If This is Economic Recovery, Where Are the Increased Tax Revenues? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: John_Mauldin
If This is Recovery, Where Are the Taxes?
Last Business Standing
Stimulus, What Stimulus?
The Reality of Unemployment
Let the Good Times Roll
The Quick Double-Dip Scenario
No one goes into Wal-Mart and asks to pay extra sales tax. Thus sales taxes are reasonable barometers for retail sales. This week we look at how taxes are doing in a period of economic recovery. Then we turn our eyes to a very interesting (and sobering) analysis of possible future unemployment rates. This is an anecdote to the happy-face analysis of employment numbers you get from establishment economists. There will be a lot of charts and tables, so this letter may print a little longer, but I think you will find it very interesting.
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Friday, November 13, 2009
America Follows Japan Over the Debt Fuelled Economic Cliff / Economics / US Debt
By: Bill_Bonner
“It’s amazing; the US is doing everything that Japan did wrong,” said a friend yesterday.
Let’s see, in the 1980s Japan’s corporate leaders thought they were going to take over the world. Investors thought so too. They expanded. They wheeled. They dealed. Prices shot up and they all thought they were geniuses.
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Friday, November 13, 2009
U.S. Job Losses Demystified / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Peter_Schiff
As the unemployment rate crossed the double digit barrier for the first time since Michael Jackson learned to moonwalk, President Obama announced that he will convene a “jobs summit” to finally bring the problem under control. Using all the analytic skill that his administration can muster, the President is determined to figure out why so many people are losing their jobs and then formulate a solution. That's a relief; for a while there, I thought we were in real trouble! In fact, the absolute last thing our economy needs is more federal government interference. If Obama really wants to know what's behind entrenched joblessness, he should start by looking at the man in the mirror.
Friday, November 13, 2009
Krugman's Magic Solution to Budgetary Woes / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Robert_Murphy
Long-time readers know that I am second only to Bill Anderson in my constant criticism of Paul Krugman. Indeed, I quite recently defended the gold standard from Krugman's ridicule.
Given this context, I am very surprised to confess that Krugman has convinced me of the virtues of currency debasement. As I was reading his blog post on the tragic fate of Ecuador, I applied Krugman's lessons to my personal life, and suddenly everything became clear. In a flash, all of my household's financial stresses were solved.
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Friday, November 13, 2009
Is Mexico the “New” China? / Economics / Mexico
By: Money_Morning
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: When it comes to global manufacturing, Mexico is quickly emerging as the “new” China.
According to corporate consultant AlixPartners, Mexico has leapfrogged China to be ranked as the cheapest country in the world for companies looking to manufacture products for the U.S. market. India is now No. 2, followed by China and then Brazil.
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Friday, November 13, 2009
Winds of Economic and Geopolitical Change / Economics / Emerging Markets
By: Puru_Saxena
The 19th century belonged to Britain, the 20th century belonged to America and in the 21st century, China will rule the business world. Whether you like it or not, this transition is already underway and it will intensify over the coming decades.
It is our observation that throughout history, no empire has managed to rule forever. If you look back in time, you will realise that various empires rose to power, they prospered and spread their influence. Thereafter, they over-extended themselves and then decayed. In fact, all the glorious empires had one thing in common – the spectacular collapse.
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Thursday, November 12, 2009
The State of the American Economy in One Chart / Economics / US Debt
By: Ceri_Shepherd
They say a picture paints a thousand words. Well this picture paints very clearly the American Economy for the last 30 years.
Ever decreasing Bond Yields which = EVER EXPANDING DEBT.
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Thursday, November 12, 2009
Securitization and Fractional Reserve Banking / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Nikolay_Gertchev
For good economists, the link between the operation of a fractional-reserve banking system and the recurrence of boom-bust cycles is of little doubt. One of the paramount figures who has contributed to the intellectual elaboration of this relationship and to its transmission to young economists, among which the present writer has had the pleasure to count himself, is Professor Hans-Hermann Hoppe.
Thursday, November 12, 2009
Mishkin's Bubblenomics and the Crash of 2008 / Economics / Market Manipulation
By: Mike_Whitney
The Fed's monetary stimulus is driving the market higher. What started as a trickle has turned into a torrent buoying stocks and commodities on a river of liquidity. Oil has more than doubled in the last 8 months while stock indexes have gained 50 percent or more in the same period. Even the shunned homebuilders and battered financials have staged a comeback. Meanwhile, consumer credit continues to shrivel and the "real" rate of unemployment climbs inexorably towards 20 percent.
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Toxic Cocktail of Fiscal and Monetary Constraints on the U.S. Dollar / Economics / Quantitative Easing
By: John_Browne
Last week, the Fed extended its emergency economic powers, which include lending to the money center banks at zero interest. A few days later, the Fed's plan was reinforced by similar announcements from the rest of the G-20. The road map the authorities are providing for the near-term global economy can't be much clearer. There will be no cessation of the seemingly endless supply of cheap dollars being pumped into the financial system. With the world apparently in complete accord on the need for ever more liquidity, stock markets are staging an easy-money rally. The main line media is almost euphoric. But what should investors make of this seemingly good news?
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Out of Control Government Budget Deficits in Eurozone, UK, USA and Japan / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
Budget deficits are soaring and printing presses are running at full steam everywhere you look including Germany and the Eurozone countries. Please consider Recession Upends German Zeal for Fiscal Prudence.
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Failure of Economic Policy Blowing More Financial Bubbles and Next Crisis / Economics / Liquidity Bubble
By: Claus_Vogt
Since last year’s collapse of the banking system, hundreds of billions of dollars have been spent to bail out some of the major players. Additionally, governments all over the world, and their central banks, have implemented huge stimulus programs to combat the consequences of the burst real estate bubble.
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Money, Inflation and Uncertainty / Economics / Fiat Currency
By: Gary_North
Three decades ago, I was visiting a friend. He was a graduate of the Harvard Business School. He was beginning a successful career as an entrepreneur. We were outside, watching his son play. His son was about five years old. "Robbie," he said, "why does daddy have to go to work every day?" "To buy money," Robbie replied. "No, Robbie. I go to work to earn money."