Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, June 13, 2010
Is Deflation in the United States Possible? / Economics / Deflation
By: Frank_Shostak
According to some analysts, a sharp decline in major commodity-price indexes has raised the specter of deflation. The Journal of Commerce's index (JCOM) fell by 8.5% in May from April while the Commodity Research Bureau's index (CRB) fell by 8.2% during that period. Also the growth momentum of these indexes plunged in May. The yearly rate of growth of the JCOM index fell to 47.9% from 77% in April, while the yearly rate of growth of the CRB index plunged to 0.7% from 24.9%.
Saturday, June 12, 2010
Investors Face Long-term Structural Changes of Lower Growth, Higher Volatility and Unemployment / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
The Frog in the Frying Pan
Three Structural Changes
The Economy Won't Produce Enough Jobs
The End Game
Like an Army But with No Discipline
Tonight I am in Venice, but I have arranged for a special edition of Thoughts from the Frontline, written by Jonathan Tepper of Variant Perception, a research firm in London. I have been corresponding with Jonathan for some time, and we have had some solid, and lately quite frequent, conversations. I am very impressed with this young man, whose perceptions and insights I find quite thoughtful.
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Friday, June 11, 2010
World Spotlight on South Africa / Economics / Africa
By: Frank_Holmes
South Africa takes to the world stage today as it hosts the first World Cup to be played on the African continent. For the next 30 days, the eyes of the globe will be watching Rooney, Cristiano Ronaldo, Maicon and Messi battle it out for world soccer supremacy.
Friday, June 11, 2010
Why Won't the Global Debt Crisis Die, and With it Gold? / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: David_Galland
David Galland, Managing Director, Casey Research writes: Back when I had more time, I would occasionally play Oblivion, a video game. A game so addictive, it's been known to contribute to flunking out of colleges and the failure of marriages.
When persevering in a sword fight, your computerized opponents were prone to angrily muttering the phrase "Why won't you die, damn it!"
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Friday, June 11, 2010
The Monetary or Circulation-Credit Theory of the Trade Cycle / Economics / Economic Theory
By: MISES
The theory of the cyclical fluctuations of business as elaborated by the British Currency School was in two respects unsatisfactory.
First, it failed to recognize that circulation credit can be granted not only by the issue of banknotes in excess of the banks' holding of cash reserves, but also by creating bank deposits subject to check in excess of such reserves (checkbook money, deposit currency). Consequently it did not realize that deposits payable on demand can also be used as a device of credit expansion. This error is of little weight, as it can be easily amended. It is enough to stress the point that all that refers to credit expansion is valid for all varieties of credit expansion no matter whether the additional fiduciary media are banknotes or deposits.
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Friday, June 11, 2010
How to Survive Deflation, Important Warnings From Robert Prechter / Economics / Deflation
By: EWI
Telegraph.go.uk, May 26: "US money supply plunges at 1930s pace... The M3 money supply in the U.S. is contracting at an accelerating rate that now matches the average decline seen from 1929 to 1933, despite near zero interest rates and the biggest fiscal blitz in history."
Friday, June 11, 2010
After Government Economic Stimulus / Economics / US Economy
By: Andy_Sutton
There is perhaps no better example of the destructive nature of government intervention than the current housing and retail goods markets. For the past three years a spend-happy Congress lavished these areas with stimulus spending, tax credits, and other palliatives all aimed at papering over the structural defects in these markets. In the case of housing, the problem was years of easy money, sky-high prices, and zero-standards lending.
Friday, June 11, 2010
Brazil BRIC Economic Growth and China Retail Sales Analysis / Economics / Emerging Markets
By: Dhaval_Shah
This week we examine the GDP results from last "BRIC" economy to report, Brazil, then we look at another one; China and see how international trade and retail sales are tracking. Then we analyze the recent US consumer credit data, and finish up with a review of four of the monetary policy decisions this week.
Friday, June 11, 2010
PONZI Finance Recipe for Economic Catastrophe, Gold Not a Bubble / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Ty_Andros
The “When hope turns to Fear” moment (See 2010 Outlook “When hope turns to Fear” in Tedbits archives) is unfolding as we speak, as the tides of insolvency sweep over the social welfare states and financial systems of the developed world. It is the next leg down in the global financial crisis and what will come to be known as the greatest depression ever is commencing -- we are fascinated and astonished at what the main stream media is reporting and failing to report.
Wednesday, June 09, 2010
Holding The Tiger Economies / Economics / Emerging Markets
By: John_Browne
In the arc of history, all great powers have their day. Even confining our glance to the modern era, countries such as Spain, France, and Great Britain all had periods of unrivalled power across the world stage. Today, the United States reigns as the world's sole superpower - but the wheel of fortune is turning. The US is being credibly challenged by rising powers in the developing world, like India and China. It is a process that will have huge implications for investors over the coming years.
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Wednesday, June 09, 2010
Defending the Speculator / Economics / Elliott Wave Theory
By: MISES
Walter Block writes: "Kill the speculators!" is a cry made during every famine that has ever existed. Uttered by demagogues, who think that the speculator causes death through starvation by raising food prices, this cry is fervently supported by the masses of economic illiterates. This kind of thinking, or rather nonthinking, has allowed dictators to impose even the death penalty for traders in food who charge high prices during famines. And this is done without the feeblest of protests from those usually concerned with civil rights and liberties.
Tuesday, June 08, 2010
Europe Chooses Economic Depression / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Mike_Whitney
Forget about a smooth recovery. Finance ministers and central bank governors of the G-20, met this weekend in Busan, South Korea and decided to abandon "tried and true" expansionary fiscal policies for their own strange brew of belt-tightening policies and austerity measures.
Tuesday, June 08, 2010
Paul Krugman's Magic Keynesian Mirror Sees Non Exsistant Economic Recovery / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
Paul Krugman is quite upset with the deficit hawks at the G-20, so much so that he says Lost Decade, Here We Come
Monday, June 07, 2010
The Phantom Economic Recovery / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Peter_Schiff
In recent months, GDP numbers have rebounded - primarily as a result of record low interest rates reliquifying the credit market and government stimulus jolting consumer spending. Although the "positive growth" has delighted Obama's economic brain trust, it has done little to boost the fortunes of Main Street. As I have said many times, GDP largely measures spending, and spending is not growth.
Monday, June 07, 2010
India, Australia, Canda GDP Trends and Monetary Policy Update / Economics / Global Economy
By: EconGrapher
This week we look at the surging growth in the Indian economy, continued improvement in the GDP results from Australia, a strengthening recovery in the Canadian economy, and monetary policy decisions by Australia and Canada, and finish up with a look at the US nonfarm payroll figures which showed strong census hiring and not much else.
Monday, June 07, 2010
Athens Hosts the Olympiad of Debt / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Gary_North
In my previous report, "There Is No Money," I surveyed Europe's sovereign debt markets. I argued that the outgoing Chief Secretary to the Treasury of Great Britain, Liam Byrne, hit the nail on the head when he placed a note on his desk for the incoming Chief Secretary to read: "There is no money." He did this as a joke, as he later explained to the media, but the joke was on the incoming government: there really is no money. But there are expenses – lots and lots of expenses. These expenses will increase. Tax revenues will not cover them
Monday, June 07, 2010
Modern Monetary System, Banks, Money Supply, Recessions and Depressions / Economics / Elliott Wave Theory
By: Mansoor_H_Khan
Modern monetary theory seems almost too good be true. It seems as if "one is getting something for nothing". Too many people who understand and write about modern monetary systems are very professor-ish and don't really answer the basic question: How can one get something for nothing?
Sunday, June 06, 2010
U.S. Federal Debt Hits $13 Trillion Record, As Congress Passes Emergency Spending Bills / Economics / US Debt
By: Videos
The federal government is now $13 trillion in the red, the Treasury Department announced Wednesday. This is the first time the government has fallen so far into debt. Lawmakers and staffers on Capitol Hill have been awaiting the milestone with fascination for more than a week, and its arrival is likely to complicate efforts for Democrats as they try to pass several emergency spending bills this month.
Saturday, June 05, 2010
Europe is Headed For a Mini Economic Depression / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Mike_Whitney
Despite a nearly-$1 trillion rescue operation, financial conditions in the eurozone continue to deteriorate. All the gauges of market stress are edging upwards and credit default swaps (CDS) spreads have widened to levels not seen since the weekend of the emergency euro-summit.
Saturday, June 05, 2010
U.S. Negative 2% GDP Q3, Economy Return to Recession? / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: John_Mauldin
There's a Slow Train ComingA Negative 2% GDP in the Third Quarter?
Small Business Still Has Issues
The question before the jury is a simple one, but the answer is complex. Is the US in a "V"-shaped recovery? Are we returning to the old normal? A great deal hinges on the answer, and this week we look at some of the evidence before us. Read full article... Read full article...