Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, June 28, 2010
Forced Economic Austerity ill Timed / Economics / Economic Austerity
By: Captain_Hook
Just listened to Jim Puplava over the weekend and there was no mention of such austerity related concerns amongst his listeners providing feedback, which I will take as a representation of the general investing public’s lack of awareness on the subject. The message I got from his listeners is increasing inflation possibly to the point of hyperinflation is guaranteed because it’s assumed politicians will not allow collapse. Apparently these people don’t read the news much, or perhaps they prefer not to think of their ill-timed investment decisions losing money. Something tells me it’s the later.
Monday, June 28, 2010
Double Dip Economic Recession, This Chart Say's Its Guaranteed! / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: JD_Rosendahl
With all the incessant analysis from economists, politicians, and bureaucrats of this nascent recovery sprouting wings, there is one great and simple chart that's screaming a "Double Dip" is guaranteed: See the weekly chart of the $BDI below.
Monday, June 28, 2010
More Keynesian Clowns With Priming the Economic Pump Nonsense / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Mike_Shedlock
Nearly every day, more Keynesian and Monetarist clowns show up trumpeting the benefits of more government spending and more financial debt.
Monday, June 28, 2010
Can Gold Cause the Boom-Bust Cycle? / Economics / Business Cycles
By: Robert_Murphy
At the Mises Academy we are just wrapping up the inaugural class, on the Austrian theory of the business cycle. During the class, one issue that came up repeatedly was whether the Mises/Hayek story of the trade cycle could occur on a completely free market, using gold as money and a banking system that operated on 100 percent reserves.
As any good (and annoying) teacher would, I avoided giving a definitive answer one way or the other. Instead, I tried to give the best possible case for each answer, to prod the students to think it through for themselves. In this article, I summarize how even a Rothbardian could plausibly answer this question either in the affirmative or the negative.
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Monday, June 28, 2010
U.S. Economy Mid Year Economic Forecast 2010 / Economics / US Economy
By: Money_Morning
Don Miller writes: Most textbook economists say that the U.S. economy is engaged in a broad-based recovery. But while there's a consensus that there's no "double-dip" recession on the horizon, the evidence suggests the nation's economy is headed for a slowdown in the second half of 2010.
The reason: In a market that derives 70% of its growth from consumer spending, the last half of this year will be all about those consumers - and about the economy's inability to generate enough jobs to keep the nation's cash registers ringing.
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Saturday, June 26, 2010
Terms of Trade Superiority at Forecasting U.S. Real GDP! / Economics / US Economy
By: Francois_Soto
ECRI Weekly LEI Issue
Many market participants are debating whether or not a double dip recession will occur within the next quarters. As we are writing our report, ECRI Weekly LEI fell quickly to 122.5 points from 134.7 in April. This indicator did a good job leading U.S. Real GDP Y/Y by 6 months over the last two decades. However, ECRI Weekly LEI recently became quite unreliable as it increased up to 25% Y/Y in April, a level consistent with an unrealistic 8% U.S. Real GDP Y/Y! You can notice the problem on the left chart below.
Saturday, June 26, 2010
The Big Picture Following the Worst Crisis Since the Great Depression / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Bryan_Rich
Last week, I laid out some important historical context for establishing a solid perspective on the big picture — a broad view of where the global economy stands and what we should expect going forward.
Today, I’d like to continue with the second part of my analysis.
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Saturday, June 26, 2010
US Money Supply Plunges At 1930's Pace And Housing Index Dives / Economics / Deflation
By: Sol_Palha
"Advice is what we ask for when we already know the answer but wish we didn't." ~ Erica Jong
The M3 money supply in the United States is contracting at an accelerating rate that now matches the average decline seen from 1929 to 1933, despite near zero interest rates and the biggest fiscal blitz in history. The M3 figures - which include broad range of bank accounts and are tracked by British and European monetarists for warning signals about the direction of the US economy a year or so in advance - began shrinking last summer. The pace has since quickened.
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Saturday, June 26, 2010
Increasing Risk of Double Dip Recession as Leading Economic Indicators Start to Turn / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: John_Mauldin
The Risk of Recession
The Leading Indicators Are Starting to Turn
Terms of Trade and US Real GDP
Bernanke at the Crossroads
We are halfway through the year (where did the time go?) and it is time to make some predictions about the last half of the year. This week we look at what the leading indicators are telling us, size up a new indicator, drop in on banking data, and do a whole lot more.
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Saturday, June 26, 2010
Industrial Production, Commodity Prices, and Inflation / Economics / Global Economy
By: Dhaval_Shah
This week we look at Industrial Production figures from the US, EU, Japan and China, and then we take a look at where commodities are tracking, before reviewing the inflation results out over the week from the US and EU. Then we finish up with a review of the monetary policy decisions from Japan, Switzerland, and Mexico. The analysis echoes some of the comments made in the economic calendar for the week just past.
Friday, June 25, 2010
British Banks Determined to Bankrupt Britain / Economics / UK Debt
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Bank of England has raised concerns over British banks exposure to European sovereign debt in its Financial Stability Report, calling on the banks to raise capital reserves in advance of future debt defaults, and to extend the maturity of the banking sectors wholesale funding as short-term loans increase the risks of credit freeze events as they are rolled over.
Friday, June 25, 2010
Europe’s Fiscal Dystopia: The “New Austerity” Road to Financial Serfdom / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Michael_Hudson
Europe is committing fiscal suicide – and will have little trouble finding allies at this weekend’s G-20 meetings in Toronto. Despite the deepening Great Recession threatening to bring on outright depression, European Central Bank (ECB) president Jean-Claude Trichet and prime ministers from Britain’s David Cameron to Greece’s George Papandreou (president of the Socialist International) and Canada’s host, Conservative Premier Stephen Harper, are calling for cutbacks in public spending.
Friday, June 25, 2010
Why Investors Must Keep an Eye on Spain / Economics / Spain
By: Money_Morning
Jon D. Markman writes: Greece is not the big story of Europe anymore - just a smoke screen.
The big story is Spain and the United Kingdom, and the news is getting worse.
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Friday, June 25, 2010
How to Profit From Europe’s Stealth Economic Recovery / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes: European countries - both inside and outside the Eurozone - are slashing their budget deficits.
Greece, Portugal and Spain - three of the so-called "PIGS" - have to do so, of course. But Germany - generally reckoned to be in excellent shape - is also cutting its deficit, as is France, which hasn't run a budget surplus in 40 years. Britain, too, with no need to protect the euro (it's not a Eurozone member) just introduced a budget that cut the deficit by $140 billion over four years.
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Friday, June 25, 2010
The Case for a Second Round of Economic Stimulus / Economics / Economic Stimulus
By: Mike_Whitney
Alan Greenspan has joined the ranks of the deficit hawks and is calling for austerity measures to reduce government spending. In an op-ed in last Thursday's Wall Street Journal titled "U.S. Debt and the Greece Analogy", Maestro Greenspan made the case for fiscal belt-tightening and disputed leading economists, like Nobel prize winners Paul Krugman and Joseph Stiglitz, who believe that the Obama administration should provide a second round of stimulus. In the opening paragraph, Greenspan dismisses the idea that cuts in government spending will push the economy back into recession. Here's an excerpt:
Thursday, June 24, 2010
Trichet Says No Deflation or Economic Stagnation in Europe / Economics / Deflation
By: Mike_Shedlock
A sure sign that something is either on the way if not already happening is denial by a central banker of the risks. With that idea in place, this headline speaks for itself: ECB's Trichet says austerity plans don't risk stagnation
Thursday, June 24, 2010
Central Banking in Crisis, Twenty Countries on the Verge of Insolvency / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Bob_Chapman
Cycles were created for the accumulation of wealth. A boom occurs and you get wealthy from investments on the way up and even wealthier on the way down, because the elitists are controlling the supply of money and credit and interest rates. That is the real underlying mission of the Fed, which is owned by banking and Wall Street. All the power to control markets and create inflation and deflation lies with the Federal Reserve. Politicians do not create monetary policy, the Fed does. The politicians do as they are told. They know from time to time there will be economic pain, but the payoffs are so good they learn to live with it.
Thursday, June 24, 2010
U.S. Fears Economic Stimulus Measures Will Choke on Europe’s Drastic Budget Slashing / Economics / Economic Stimulus
By: Money_Morning
Kerri Shannon writes: While U.S. President Barack Obama will be gunning for more economic stimulus measures at this weekend's Group of 20 (G20) meeting in Canada, European lawmakers continue drastic efforts to rein in spending.
The coordination of global efforts to promote economic recovery will be the main issue at the weekend's meeting, which was set to spotlight the value of China's currency before Beijing announced Saturday that it would allow the yuan to appreciate. The United States and Europe's differing views on the most effective strategies to maintain global economic growth and slash bloated government budgets are increasing tensions between leaders.
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Thursday, June 24, 2010
We Cannot Afford a Double Dip Economic Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Casey_Research
By Alex Daley, Senior Editor, Casey Research writes: Talk of a double-dip recession is seemingly increasing these days. Home sales have dropped like a brick since the end of the special tax breaks for buyers. Weekly job reports are showing much larger rises in unemployment claims than previously expected by whoever it is that decides what exactly is expected - 427,000 new filings in just the last weekly report.
Wednesday, June 23, 2010
Two Leading Economic Indicators Point to Another Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Claus_Vogt
There are two well-known and important leading economic indexes for the U.S. economy:
• The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI), and
• The Weekly U.S. Leading Economic Index published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.
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