Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, June 30, 2010
Economic Choice Between Austrian Austerity Or Keynesian Poverty / Economics / Economic Theory
By: LewRockwell
Sean Corrigan writes: [Government] is apprehended, not as a committee of citizens chosen to carry on the communal business of the whole population, but as a separate and autonomous corporation, mainly devoted to exploiting the population for the benefit of its own members… The intelligent man, when he pays taxes, certainly does not feel he is making a prudent investment of his money; on the contrary, he feels he is being mulcted in an excessive amount for services that, in the main, are useless to him, and that, in substantial part, are downright inimical to him" ~ H.L. Mencken, "More of the Same," American Mercury 1925
Wednesday, June 30, 2010
Fed Credit, Inflation and the Idiots in the Middle / Economics / Inflation
By: Richard_Daughty
A whole series of alarms occurred after I got the news, although I lost the source, that "food stamp usage just soared to a new record high" of 40.2 million persons.
This number is alarming in itself because it means that the economy is so bad that more and more hungry people cannot afford to even feed themselves, sort of like teenagers, but with hopefully better manners and dietary choices.
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Tuesday, June 29, 2010
Plunging Consumer Confidence and Treasury Yields, Economic Depression is Here / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Mike_Shedlock
Is that a 3-handle I see on the long bond and a 2-handle of the 10-year treasury? Why yes it is.
Tuesday, June 29, 2010
Keynesian Economics C + I + G = Baloney / Economics / Economic Theory
By: MISES
Patrick Barron writes: Wrongheaded governmental interventions are preventing the world's largest economies from recovering from massive malinvestment.
Japan, currently the world's third-largest economy, has had zero growth for 20 years. A good case can be made that the United States has had zero growth for ten years, because the so-called growth of the first decade of the new millennium now appears to have been phony. All of those houses were built at a loss, losses that we are only now recognizing. We have yet to plumb the total extent of the rot.
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Tuesday, June 29, 2010
Robert Prechter Answers 20 Tough Questions About Deflation / Economics / Deflation
By: EWI
Free Download: Elliott Wave International have just released a brand-new interview given by Robert Prechter. A devoted inflationist asks the leading proponent of deflation tough questions about fiat currency, gold, the Fed, the Great Depression, financial bubbles, government intervention and how to protect your money -- and even profit -- in today's environment. Learn more below or access the 20-page report now.
Tuesday, June 29, 2010
Paul Krugman Warns of Depression / Economics / Economic Theory
By: William_Anderson
The more I read Paul Krugman's columns and papers, the more I realize just how great the gulf is between Austrian and Keynesian thought. It is impossible to sum up all of the differences between the two camps, but I do think that perhaps the disparities can be summed up in the Austrian rejection of Keynes' famous 1943 statement that expansion of credit by the central bank will create a "miracle . . . of turning a stone into bread."
Tuesday, June 29, 2010
UK ConLib Government to Use INFLATION Stealth Tax to Erode Value of Public Debt / Economics / UK Debt
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne hit the reset button on the UK economy by delivering the most radical budget of the past 30 years that has sought to cut an extra £40 billion from Britains annual budget deficit by 2014-15 which is on top of ALL of Labours March 2010 budget cuts and tax rises of £73 billion that the coalition left intact. The cuts totaling a withdrawal of £113 billion from the economy will be phased in by 2015-16 and by then total about 7.5% of GDP which is a huge amount that is deemed necessary to divert Britain from its current path towards bankruptcy that Labour had put it firmly upon as a consequence of running an annual budget deficit of 12% of GDP.
Monday, June 28, 2010
How do Other Nations Balance Their Trade? Try Germany / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Ian_Fletcher
As America continues to contemplate its trade mess, the question naturally arises how other developed nations manage to trade with the world without deficits and without turning high-wage industries into low-wage industries to compete. Although some other developed nations, like Britain and Spain, have trade situations almost as bad as ours in recent years, some have been quite the opposite. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 28, 2010
The New Ideological Divide Between Stimulators and Austereians / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Peter_Schiff
Despite the apparent deficit-cutting solidarity that emerged from this weekend's G-20 meeting in Toronto, it is clear that the great powers of the industrialized world have not been this philosophically estranged since the end of the Cold War. Ironically, in this new contest, the former belligerents have switched sides - the capitalists are now the socialists, and vice versa.
Monday, June 28, 2010
Forced Economic Austerity ill Timed / Economics / Economic Austerity
By: Captain_Hook
Just listened to Jim Puplava over the weekend and there was no mention of such austerity related concerns amongst his listeners providing feedback, which I will take as a representation of the general investing public’s lack of awareness on the subject. The message I got from his listeners is increasing inflation possibly to the point of hyperinflation is guaranteed because it’s assumed politicians will not allow collapse. Apparently these people don’t read the news much, or perhaps they prefer not to think of their ill-timed investment decisions losing money. Something tells me it’s the later.
Monday, June 28, 2010
Double Dip Economic Recession, This Chart Say's Its Guaranteed! / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: JD_Rosendahl
With all the incessant analysis from economists, politicians, and bureaucrats of this nascent recovery sprouting wings, there is one great and simple chart that's screaming a "Double Dip" is guaranteed: See the weekly chart of the $BDI below.
Monday, June 28, 2010
More Keynesian Clowns With Priming the Economic Pump Nonsense / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Mike_Shedlock
Nearly every day, more Keynesian and Monetarist clowns show up trumpeting the benefits of more government spending and more financial debt.
Monday, June 28, 2010
Can Gold Cause the Boom-Bust Cycle? / Economics / Business Cycles
By: Robert_Murphy
At the Mises Academy we are just wrapping up the inaugural class, on the Austrian theory of the business cycle. During the class, one issue that came up repeatedly was whether the Mises/Hayek story of the trade cycle could occur on a completely free market, using gold as money and a banking system that operated on 100 percent reserves.
As any good (and annoying) teacher would, I avoided giving a definitive answer one way or the other. Instead, I tried to give the best possible case for each answer, to prod the students to think it through for themselves. In this article, I summarize how even a Rothbardian could plausibly answer this question either in the affirmative or the negative.
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Monday, June 28, 2010
U.S. Economy Mid Year Economic Forecast 2010 / Economics / US Economy
By: Money_Morning
Don Miller writes: Most textbook economists say that the U.S. economy is engaged in a broad-based recovery. But while there's a consensus that there's no "double-dip" recession on the horizon, the evidence suggests the nation's economy is headed for a slowdown in the second half of 2010.
The reason: In a market that derives 70% of its growth from consumer spending, the last half of this year will be all about those consumers - and about the economy's inability to generate enough jobs to keep the nation's cash registers ringing.
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Saturday, June 26, 2010
Terms of Trade Superiority at Forecasting U.S. Real GDP! / Economics / US Economy
By: Francois_Soto
ECRI Weekly LEI Issue
Many market participants are debating whether or not a double dip recession will occur within the next quarters. As we are writing our report, ECRI Weekly LEI fell quickly to 122.5 points from 134.7 in April. This indicator did a good job leading U.S. Real GDP Y/Y by 6 months over the last two decades. However, ECRI Weekly LEI recently became quite unreliable as it increased up to 25% Y/Y in April, a level consistent with an unrealistic 8% U.S. Real GDP Y/Y! You can notice the problem on the left chart below.
Saturday, June 26, 2010
The Big Picture Following the Worst Crisis Since the Great Depression / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Bryan_Rich
Last week, I laid out some important historical context for establishing a solid perspective on the big picture — a broad view of where the global economy stands and what we should expect going forward.
Today, I’d like to continue with the second part of my analysis.
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Saturday, June 26, 2010
US Money Supply Plunges At 1930's Pace And Housing Index Dives / Economics / Deflation
By: Sol_Palha
"Advice is what we ask for when we already know the answer but wish we didn't." ~ Erica Jong
The M3 money supply in the United States is contracting at an accelerating rate that now matches the average decline seen from 1929 to 1933, despite near zero interest rates and the biggest fiscal blitz in history. The M3 figures - which include broad range of bank accounts and are tracked by British and European monetarists for warning signals about the direction of the US economy a year or so in advance - began shrinking last summer. The pace has since quickened.
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Saturday, June 26, 2010
Increasing Risk of Double Dip Recession as Leading Economic Indicators Start to Turn / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: John_Mauldin
The Risk of Recession
The Leading Indicators Are Starting to Turn
Terms of Trade and US Real GDP
Bernanke at the Crossroads
We are halfway through the year (where did the time go?) and it is time to make some predictions about the last half of the year. This week we look at what the leading indicators are telling us, size up a new indicator, drop in on banking data, and do a whole lot more.
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Saturday, June 26, 2010
Industrial Production, Commodity Prices, and Inflation / Economics / Global Economy
By: Dhaval_Shah
This week we look at Industrial Production figures from the US, EU, Japan and China, and then we take a look at where commodities are tracking, before reviewing the inflation results out over the week from the US and EU. Then we finish up with a review of the monetary policy decisions from Japan, Switzerland, and Mexico. The analysis echoes some of the comments made in the economic calendar for the week just past.
Friday, June 25, 2010
British Banks Determined to Bankrupt Britain / Economics / UK Debt
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Bank of England has raised concerns over British banks exposure to European sovereign debt in its Financial Stability Report, calling on the banks to raise capital reserves in advance of future debt defaults, and to extend the maturity of the banking sectors wholesale funding as short-term loans increase the risks of credit freeze events as they are rolled over.