Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, June 18, 2010
The Next Catastrophic Bubble to Pop Will Be Private Sector Debt / Economics / US Debt
By: Andrew_Butter
Much is said about the propensity of USA to pile on public debt to try and right the wrongs of the moronic lenders of yester-year ….and the risks that entails, but private sector debt is a much bigger “Elephant” in the Jacuzzi than public sector debt.
Friday, June 18, 2010
Sovereign Crisis from Economic Stimulus to Debt Austerity Snowball Effect / Economics / Economic Austerity
By: Mike_Larson
A blockbuster draft report from the European Commission saw the light of day recently, thanks to some reporting from Bloomberg. It highlights an incredibly dangerous Catch-22 facing many sovereign nations — the “Snowball Scenario.”
Let me give you an example how this works …
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Friday, June 18, 2010
Trade Cycle Impact on the Market Economy / Economics / Economic Theory
By: MISES
The popularity of inflation and credit expansion, the ultimate source of the repeated attempts to render people prosperous by credit expansion, and thus the cause of the cyclical fluctuations of business, manifests itself clearly in the customary terminology. The boom is called good business, prosperity, and upswing. Its unavoidable aftermath, the readjustment of conditions to the real data of the market, is called crisis, slump, bad business, depression. People rebel against the insight that the disturbing element is to be seen in the malinvestment and the overconsumption of the boom period and that such an artificially induced boom is doomed. They are looking for the philosophers' stone to make it last.
Thursday, June 17, 2010
Chinese Workers Force the Issue / Economics / Global Economy
By: John_Browne
Neeraj Chaudhary writes: It's starting to look like Chinese labor has had enough. Led by workers at the Honda Motors plant in Zhangshan, and perhaps spurred by the suicides of ten workers this year at Foxconn Technology (a supplier to high technology companies such as Apple, Dell, and Hewlett-Packard), Chinese factory workers and other laborers across the country are going on strike. In so doing, these workers are defying the orders of their government-run unions and risking dismissal by their employers. I believe that this monumental step in the development of China's economy will result in a positive outcome. From an international perspective, these strikes may do more than improve working conditions in Chinese factories; they may, in fact, force a currency reform (long-delayed by the Chinese Communist Party) that will have serious implications for the global economy.
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Wednesday, June 16, 2010
United States Construction Industry in Death Spiral / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: JD_Rosendahl
How bad are things in the construction industry? Worse than many really know as Housing Starts in U.S. Fell to a 593,000 Pace in May
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
As the Stimulus Fades U.S. Economy and Stock Market Loses Steam / Economics / US Economy
By: Claus_Vogt
Over the past two years, we’ve seen the largest stimulus policies the world has ever produced.
As a result, sovereign debt and central banks’ balance sheet holdings have gone through the roof!
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Wednesday, June 16, 2010
The U.S. Economic Recovery is on Cruise Control / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Money_Morning
Jon D. Markman writes: Assessing the U.S. economic recovery right now is a bit like buying a used car: Although it sure looks good, you can't help but wonder what's really going on under the hood.
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
The Inflation Mega-Trend Continues With UK CPI 3.4%, RPI 5.1% / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Another month and another release of UK inflation data at far above the Bank of England's target of 2% and above the upper limit of the Banks 1% to 3% range by reporting CPI of +3.4% for May. Thus the BoE Governor, Mervyn King will write another letter to repeat that the high rate of inflation is just "temporary", though when does "temporary" high inflation stop being temporary? 6 months? a year? 2 years? as the country sleep walks into stagflation with all of the consequences for wage earners and savers.
Tuesday, June 15, 2010
The U.S. Federal Government Debt and Deficit - Congressman, Heal Thyself! / Economics / US Debt
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
On one of this past Sunday's morning political talk shows, I heard a congressman say that the runaway federal government spending had to stop. Congressman, sir, although the spending continues to increase, the rate of growth in that spending has slowed enormously. In the 12 months ended May 2010, the accumulated spending by the federal government totaled $3.437 trillion, enough to keep the late Senator Dirksen spinning in his grave for near eternity. Although an admittedly high level, this 12-month accumulated total federal spending was only 2.6% higher than the 12-month accumulated total federal spending for May 2009 (see Chart 1).
Tuesday, June 15, 2010
High UK Inflation Continues to Punish Savers With Negtive Real Interest Rates / Economics / Inflation
By: MoneyFacts
Inflation figures released today show that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has fallen marginally to 3.40%, still way above the Government’s 2% target.
But a possible VAT increase in next week’s emergency Budget could stunt any longer term reductions.
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Tuesday, June 15, 2010
Inflation Corroded Copper Coins / Economics / Inflation
By: LewRockwell
Richard Daughty writes: Junior Mogambo Ranger (JMR) Phil S. sent an article from the Globe and Mail where I learned that inflation in Canada has been so persistently corrosive over the years that, like in America, "it now costs the Royal Canadian Mint more than a penny to make a penny, and because of penny 'hoarding' by Canadians, the mint has to keep making more." Hahaha! "Hoarding"? Hahahaha!
Tuesday, June 15, 2010
Government Quest to Buy Inflation, Print Baby Print / Economics / Inflation
By: John_Mauldin
This week I thought I would give you an Outside the Box with a more European flavor, as I am in Tuscany at the moment and on to Paris later this week and then back here for a working weekend with partners. Life is tough. :-)
Dylan Grice of Societe Generale (based in London) is fast becoming one of my favorite writers. This thought-provoking piece makes us meditate on whether central banks will print money in response to the fiscal crisis in the developed world countries. I am not certain that all central banks will print with abandon, BUT we need to think about what happens if they do.
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Monday, June 14, 2010
Can China Save the World Economy? / Economics / China Economy
By: Graham_Summers
Nope. No chance.
For starters, let’s look at the basic numbers. China’s GDP is now $4.3 trillion, making it the fourth largest economy in the world. However, there’s a HUGE drop off from the first two economies (Europe $16.4 trillion and the US $14.2 trillion) to the third and fourth (Japan $5.0 trillion and China $4.3 trillion).
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Monday, June 14, 2010
U.S. Economy Slows as States Lose Federal Stimulus Funds / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
For only the second time in 50 years, state budget cuts will act as a fiscal drag on GDP as noted by Bloomberg in Economy in U.S. Slows as States Lose Federal Stimulus Funds.
Monday, June 14, 2010
Deflation Scare Dead Ahead / Economics / Deflation
By: Captain_Hook
According to John Williams of shadowstats.com, although the Employment Report to be released this Friday will appear robust on the surface, May payrolls could contract net of the temporary census boost, setting up a buy the rumor sell the news trade in the stock market. So this, combined with positive seasonality and the fact stocks are technically oversold on a short-term basis suggests gains should be expected into Friday, or Monday at the latest, however afterwards a resumption of the downtrend established over the past few weeks should return, potentially yielding significantly lower prices. Heaven knows the fundamentals support such a view, and have for some time, but now we also have bearish speculators exhausted as evidenced in falling US index open interest put / call ratios, where the bureaucracy’s price managers are unable to squeeze our faulty and fraudulent stock markets higher anymore.
Monday, June 14, 2010
Economic Stimulus Sovereign Debt Crisis End Game / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Martin_D_Weiss
Anyone not blinded by greed can plainly see the sick cycle we’re in:
First, the government helps create a great asset bubble.
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Monday, June 14, 2010
U.S. Economy Heading For the Rocks? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Gerard_Jackson
If you read Reuters, Associated Press and the rest of the phony news outlets the US economy is on the mend and it's only a matter of time before happy days are here again. If you are one of the unemployed or underemployed things are indeed gloomy. And no wonder. The Wall Street Journal reports that in the first quarter not one venture-backed company went public. This hasn't happened since 1980. Adding to the economy's woes we find that of the 431,000 non-farm jobs created last month a mere 41,000 was in the private sector, less than 10 per cent. To top it off, manufacturing also started to slow.
Sunday, June 13, 2010
Deflation? Try a Tale of Two Inflations / Economics / Inflation
By: Dian_L_Chu
The crisis in Europe is causing concerns about deflation in the U.S. and other developed economies after weeks of financial-market turmoil. The fears are most pronounced in Europe, where a combination of spending cuts and tax increases could weigh on economic growth and feed into deflation.
Financial markets are reflecting a diverging expectation. Gold prices have been soaring—a potential indicator of inflation fears—while many other inflation indicators are going the other way.
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Sunday, June 13, 2010
Is Deflation in the United States Possible? / Economics / Deflation
By: Frank_Shostak
According to some analysts, a sharp decline in major commodity-price indexes has raised the specter of deflation. The Journal of Commerce's index (JCOM) fell by 8.5% in May from April while the Commodity Research Bureau's index (CRB) fell by 8.2% during that period. Also the growth momentum of these indexes plunged in May. The yearly rate of growth of the JCOM index fell to 47.9% from 77% in April, while the yearly rate of growth of the CRB index plunged to 0.7% from 24.9%.
Saturday, June 12, 2010
Investors Face Long-term Structural Changes of Lower Growth, Higher Volatility and Unemployment / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
The Frog in the Frying Pan
Three Structural Changes
The Economy Won't Produce Enough Jobs
The End Game
Like an Army But with No Discipline
Tonight I am in Venice, but I have arranged for a special edition of Thoughts from the Frontline, written by Jonathan Tepper of Variant Perception, a research firm in London. I have been corresponding with Jonathan for some time, and we have had some solid, and lately quite frequent, conversations. I am very impressed with this young man, whose perceptions and insights I find quite thoughtful.
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