Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, July 06, 2010
20 Questions with Robert Prechter: Devaluation Won't Work / Economics / Deflation
By: EWI
The following article is an excerpt from Elliott Wave International’s free report, 20 Questions With Deflationist Robert Prechter. It has been adapted from Prechter’s June 19 appearance on Jim Puplava’s Financial Sense Newshour.
Tuesday, July 06, 2010
Signs of Cooling U.S. Economy in ISM and Jobs Data / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
In yet another sign the economy is cooling substantially, three components of the June Services ISM are now in contraction, with the overall index declining much faster than economists expected.
Tuesday, July 06, 2010
Debt Deflation, A Long Economic Winter Ahead / Economics / Deflation
By: Prof_Rodrigue_Trembl
"A State divided into a small number of rich and a large number of poor will always develop a government manipulated by the rich to protect the amenities represented by their property.": Harold Laski (1893-1950), British political theorist, 1930
“Money becomes evil not when it is used to buy goods but when it is used to buy power... economic inequalities become evil when they are translated into political inequalities.” Samuel Huntington (1927-2008), political scientist
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Tuesday, July 06, 2010
More Red Flags for the U.S. Economy / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Mike_Whitney
Bonds are signaling that the recovery is in trouble. The yield on the 10-year Treasury (2.97 percent) has fallen to levels not seen since the peak of the crisis while the yield on the two-year note has dropped to historic lows. This is a sign of extreme pessimism. Investors are scared and moving into liquid assets. Their long-term expectations have grown dimmer while their confidence has begun to wane. Economist John Maynard Keynes examined the issue of confidence in his masterpiece "The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money". He says:
Sunday, July 04, 2010
Trichet Reiterates Economic Austerity Message; Will the Treasury Bond Rally Last? / Economics / Economic Austerity
By: Mike_Shedlock
Once again and with greater force, Europe has snubbed its nose (and rightfully so) the Keynesian clowns in US academia and the Obama administration.
Sunday, July 04, 2010
Unemployment Report Shows Sluggish Economic Recovery / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Money_Morning
Don Miller writes: Unemployment figures released Friday confirmed that the U.S. economy is still recovering, but they also showed it will take years to replace the 8 million jobs lost during the Great Recession.
And until meaningful hiring takes place, consumers are unlikely to loosen their purse strings, the key to putting the economy back on track to full recovery.
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Saturday, July 03, 2010
Back To Bancor, Gold And Oil Have To Gain / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Andrew_McKillop
The euro rebound marks a predictable return to traditional habits for currency trading hackers, that is renewed attack on the US dollar. This action has new zest, more upside and downside than previous due to the euro now revealing itself. Coming out to full public view as a tinsel toy money, unable to shield the dollar it can accompany the dollar's fall against a very few select moneys and "stores of value". Against both the euro and dollar, the mighty Yuan can grow with G20 approval - by a few percentage points. But how can both the euro and dollar devalue, easing the debt cord winding ever tighter on the jugular vein of Europe regional and US national finances ?
Saturday, July 03, 2010
U.S. Economy Falling Towards Another Credit Collapse? / Economics / Credit Crisis 2010
By: Bob_Chapman
The Fed says US unemployment is likely to stay high for a long time, and that justifies zero interest rates indefinitely.The June Chicago Purchasing Managers Index was 59.1 vs. 59.7 in May. The employment component rose to 54.2 from 49.2 in May. New orders fell to 59.1 from 62.7.
Homebuilder Lennar is cutting new home prices 15% as new orders fell 10%. KB Builders said new orders fell 23%, as new home sales fell 32%.
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Saturday, July 03, 2010
Really Dismal Unemployment Numbers a Central Banker's Nightmare / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
Some Really Dismal Numbers
Unemployment Went Down?
Earnings Take a Hit
Money Supply Concerns
A Central Banker's Nightmare
Why Don't You Reform Yourselves?
There’s a reason economics is called the dismal science, and weeks like this just give it further meaning. In economics, there is what you see and what you don’t. This week we are going to examine the headline data we all see and then take a look for what most observers do not see. Then we’ll try to think about what it all really means. With employment, housing, and the ISM numbers, there is a lot to cover. And this letter will print out longer than usual, as there are a lot of charts. Warning: remove sharp objects from the vicinity and pour yourself your favorite adult beverage. This does not make for fun reading.
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Friday, July 02, 2010
Economic Recovery Withers on the Vine as Factory Orders Fall More Than Expected / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Mike_Shedlock
The "nascent recovery" was led by manufacturing and now the one bright spot is showing signs of age, just as state payrolls are about to get clobbered.
Friday, July 02, 2010
Double-Dip Recession Warning Signs Everywhere! Batten Down the Hatches! / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Mike_Larson
The bright red warning signs of a double-dip recession are flashing everywhere. And I do mean EVERYWHERE.
In just the past few days, we learned that …
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Friday, July 02, 2010
Misguided Economic Policy Paving the Way for a Double-Dip Recession / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Money_Morning
Jason Simpkins writes: With unemployment still hovering near 10%, policymakers should be doing all they can to combat joblessness and reinvigorate a recovery that is showing signs of weakness.
But they're not.
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Friday, July 02, 2010
Investor Silver Lining to the Age of Austerity / Economics / Economic Austerity
By: Hans_Wagner
According to some analysts and David Cameron, the new prime minister of the United Kingdom, the “Age of Austerity” is upon us. If the cuts promised by many European countries actually take place, investors fear it will lead to another recession in several of those countries. The age of austerity is what has worried the markets in the last month causing anxiety as volatility ruled the days.
Thursday, July 01, 2010
India is on the Path to Double-Digit Economic Growth / Economics / India
By: Money_Morning
Jason Simpkins writes: If it's able to control inflation and cut its debt, India could well become the world's most appealing investment opportunity.
Europe is choking on debt and scrambling to salvage its beleaguered currency. The United States is saddled by high unemployment and struggling to preserve its wobbly recovery. Even China - which has had to reign in its stimulus to cool its red-hot property market and curb inflation - may have peaked.
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Thursday, July 01, 2010
UK Unemployment Forecast 2010 to 2015 / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The latest set of figures from the coalition ConLib government forecast that 600,000 public sector jobs will be lost over the next 5 years at the rate of 120,000 per year as a consequence of spending cuts and tax rises of £113 billion per year by 2015-16, that will directly result in loss of private sector jobs of an additional 700,000 to total of 1.3 million. However at the same time the Prime Minister, David Cameron announced that the economy by some miracle would create 2.5 million private sector jobs to more than off-set the 1.3 million expected to be lost as a consequence of spending cuts.
Wednesday, June 30, 2010
20 Questions with Robert Prechter: Signs Point to Deflation / Economics / Deflation
By: EWI
The following article is an excerpt from Elliott Wave International’s free report, 20 Questions With Deflationist Robert Prechter. It has been adapted from Prechter’s June 19 appearance on Jim Puplava’s Financial Sense Newshour. To read the entire conversation, access the 20-page report here.
Wednesday, June 30, 2010
The Economics of Great Depression Scrip / Economics / Economic Depression
By: Clifford_F_Thies
According to Paul Krugman, a contributing cause to a depression is hoarding and, concerning this, I have no real quarrel.[1] It is concerning the ability of the market to address the problem of hoarding, versus the need for government intervention because of hoarding, on which I disagree.
Wednesday, June 30, 2010
Why the Greater Economic Depression Still Lies Ahead / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Michael_Pento
If one does not know the real cause of a problem, they should also be unable to provide a genuine solution.
Messer’s Obama, Bernanke and Geithner do not understand the real cause of this debt crisis. They are politicians first and economists or students of the market second; if at all. Therefore, it is not wise to ask them if the great recession is indeed over, or for them to provide a plan to prevent another from occurring in the future.
Wednesday, June 30, 2010
Ferguson, Roubini vs. Krugman: Slowdown or Economic Depression for the U.S.? / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Dian_L_Chu
Paul Krugman, a strong supporter of fiat money, is obviously having a major distress over the G20 push to cut deficits in half by 2013, and stabilize the soaring U.S. debt. In his latest New York Times column, Krugman not only criticizes austerity measures, but also asserts that we are in the early stages of a third depression as a direct result of the spending cut.
Wednesday, June 30, 2010
How Economic Policy Errors Cause Depressions / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Mike_Shedlock
It is easy to pick on Paul Krugman. So easy in fact, that it is not even fair sport.
However, if you can separate the wheat from the chaff, sometimes there are nuggets of truth in what Krugman writes.