Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, July 09, 2010
Uncertainty Undermining the Global Economic Recovery / Economics / Global Economy
By: Money_Morning
Don Miller writes: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said yesterday (Thursday) that the global economic recovery is losing steam because uncertainty in financial markets is keeping businesses and consumers from investing in future growth.
Friday, July 09, 2010
The Global Double-Dip Recession: Which Markets to Hold… And Which Ones May Fold / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes: Last week's stock-market meltdown was a worldwide affair, and was touched off by trader fears of a global "double-dip" recession.
However, the truth is that the odds of a recessionary reprise are high in just a few countries - primarily those that have experienced excessive fiscal and monetary "stimulus," or that have real inflation problems.
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Friday, July 09, 2010
Consumption Inflection Point, No One Wants Credit; Consumer Spending Plans Plunge / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Mike_Shedlock
Consumer credit has fallen an unprecedented 7 consecutive quarters. Moreover, credit is poised to plunge further as consumer spending plans are falling through the floor.
Thursday, July 08, 2010
In the Shadow of the Dragon / Economics / China Economy
By: Peter_Schiff
John Downs writes: Although China is not the biggest economy in the world by GDP, (it is third, after growing a remarkable 8.7 percent last year), its exports are increasingly seen as the needed lifeline for many shaky economies. But as China plots its future as the world's largest exporter, it must be of some concern to them that their top two clients (the US and EU) are broke. As a result, China knows that it will have to look beyond developed markets for continued growth. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 08, 2010
Fastest Growth in 4 Years Retail Sales Hype / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
The Wall Street Journal reports Retailers Turn in a Mixed Bag for June Sales.
Thursday, July 08, 2010
The Real Housewives of Japan Shopping for Bargains Driving Deflation? / Economics / Japan Economy
By: Money_Morning
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: KYOTO, Japan - Could 70,000 Japanese housewives tip this Asian giant into a deflationary spiral?
As farfetched as that sounds, it's become a major cause for concern in this nation of 128 million, which has been in an economic funk for two decades. These "real housewives" are part of a user-driven, social-networking site called Mainichi Tokubai, which delivers the best prices on specific grocery-store items to the fingertips of Tokyo-region consumers.
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Thursday, July 08, 2010
Double-Dip Recessions, Economics and Ice Cream Cones / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Mike_Stathis
Over the past several weeks, you may have heard the back and forth debates regarding the possibility of a double-dip recession between the various media hacks and clowns they interview.
The overwhelming question has been, “Will the U.S. enter a double-dip recession?”
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Thursday, July 08, 2010
The ETA Economic Recovery, Depression Dead Ahead / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Dr_Krassimir_Petrov
Economic experts have used letters like U, V, W, etc. when speaking about the current recession. The letters should represent graphically the course of the recession. The U-shaped recession stands for a fall, some time at the bottom, and a steady recovery. In case of a V-shaped recession, the economy bottoms out quickly and then recovers just as quickly. The concept of using letters is sometimes applied to stock-market bottoms.
Wednesday, July 07, 2010
Ten Economic Blunders from History / Economics / Economic Theory
By: MISES
John S. Chamberlain writes: Take cover when you hear a political leader talking about economic affairs. You can bet a bad decision is incoming. Luckily for the leaders, their meddling usually has a slow, erosive effect on the economy. Every so often, however, the great ones manage to land a real whopper that takes them down along with their whole country. Here are ten examples from history.
Wednesday, July 07, 2010
The Myth of the Global Economy / Economics / Global Economy
By: Ian_Fletcher
If there’s one thing everyone knows these days, whether they’re happy about it or not, it’s that we live in a “global” economy. This fact is taken as so obvious that anyone who disputes it is regarded as not so much wrong as simply ignorant—not even worth arguing with. So it may come as a shock to many that, in reality, the cliché that we live in a borderless global economy does not survive serious examination. The key is to ignore the Thomas Friedmanesque rhetoric the media is flooded with and get down to some hard numbers.
Wednesday, July 07, 2010
Beyond Black Swans, De-Leveraging And Re-Leveraging / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Gary_North
The black swan is the foo bird of modern Keynesianism. It is a threat only because of central bank fiat money and commercial bank leverage.
In a recent report, "China: What Rhymes with 'Crash'?" I wrote this:
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Tuesday, July 06, 2010
20 Questions with Robert Prechter: Devaluation Won't Work / Economics / Deflation
By: EWI
The following article is an excerpt from Elliott Wave International’s free report, 20 Questions With Deflationist Robert Prechter. It has been adapted from Prechter’s June 19 appearance on Jim Puplava’s Financial Sense Newshour.
Tuesday, July 06, 2010
Signs of Cooling U.S. Economy in ISM and Jobs Data / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
In yet another sign the economy is cooling substantially, three components of the June Services ISM are now in contraction, with the overall index declining much faster than economists expected.
Tuesday, July 06, 2010
Debt Deflation, A Long Economic Winter Ahead / Economics / Deflation
By: Prof_Rodrigue_Trembl
"A State divided into a small number of rich and a large number of poor will always develop a government manipulated by the rich to protect the amenities represented by their property.": Harold Laski (1893-1950), British political theorist, 1930
“Money becomes evil not when it is used to buy goods but when it is used to buy power... economic inequalities become evil when they are translated into political inequalities.” Samuel Huntington (1927-2008), political scientist
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Tuesday, July 06, 2010
More Red Flags for the U.S. Economy / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Mike_Whitney
Bonds are signaling that the recovery is in trouble. The yield on the 10-year Treasury (2.97 percent) has fallen to levels not seen since the peak of the crisis while the yield on the two-year note has dropped to historic lows. This is a sign of extreme pessimism. Investors are scared and moving into liquid assets. Their long-term expectations have grown dimmer while their confidence has begun to wane. Economist John Maynard Keynes examined the issue of confidence in his masterpiece "The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money". He says:
Sunday, July 04, 2010
Trichet Reiterates Economic Austerity Message; Will the Treasury Bond Rally Last? / Economics / Economic Austerity
By: Mike_Shedlock
Once again and with greater force, Europe has snubbed its nose (and rightfully so) the Keynesian clowns in US academia and the Obama administration.
Sunday, July 04, 2010
Unemployment Report Shows Sluggish Economic Recovery / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Money_Morning
Don Miller writes: Unemployment figures released Friday confirmed that the U.S. economy is still recovering, but they also showed it will take years to replace the 8 million jobs lost during the Great Recession.
And until meaningful hiring takes place, consumers are unlikely to loosen their purse strings, the key to putting the economy back on track to full recovery.
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Saturday, July 03, 2010
Back To Bancor, Gold And Oil Have To Gain / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Andrew_McKillop
The euro rebound marks a predictable return to traditional habits for currency trading hackers, that is renewed attack on the US dollar. This action has new zest, more upside and downside than previous due to the euro now revealing itself. Coming out to full public view as a tinsel toy money, unable to shield the dollar it can accompany the dollar's fall against a very few select moneys and "stores of value". Against both the euro and dollar, the mighty Yuan can grow with G20 approval - by a few percentage points. But how can both the euro and dollar devalue, easing the debt cord winding ever tighter on the jugular vein of Europe regional and US national finances ?
Saturday, July 03, 2010
U.S. Economy Falling Towards Another Credit Collapse? / Economics / Credit Crisis 2010
By: Bob_Chapman
The Fed says US unemployment is likely to stay high for a long time, and that justifies zero interest rates indefinitely.The June Chicago Purchasing Managers Index was 59.1 vs. 59.7 in May. The employment component rose to 54.2 from 49.2 in May. New orders fell to 59.1 from 62.7.
Homebuilder Lennar is cutting new home prices 15% as new orders fell 10%. KB Builders said new orders fell 23%, as new home sales fell 32%.
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Saturday, July 03, 2010
Really Dismal Unemployment Numbers a Central Banker's Nightmare / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
Some Really Dismal Numbers
Unemployment Went Down?
Earnings Take a Hit
Money Supply Concerns
A Central Banker's Nightmare
Why Don't You Reform Yourselves?
There’s a reason economics is called the dismal science, and weeks like this just give it further meaning. In economics, there is what you see and what you don’t. This week we are going to examine the headline data we all see and then take a look for what most observers do not see. Then we’ll try to think about what it all really means. With employment, housing, and the ISM numbers, there is a lot to cover. And this letter will print out longer than usual, as there are a lot of charts. Warning: remove sharp objects from the vicinity and pour yourself your favorite adult beverage. This does not make for fun reading.
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