Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, July 12, 2010
Retail Sales Signal Economic Recovery Or the Bleeding Edge of the Great Recession's Next Down Cycle? / Economics / US Economy
By: Adam_Lass
Is Retail the "guiding light" of the recovery – or the bleeding edge of the Great Recession's next down cycle?
"It was the best of times, it was the worst of times..."
I know it's a bit saddle-worn, but old Chas. Dickens was one heck of a student of humanity, and his opening to A Tale of Two Cities, what with its dichotomous wisdom, foolishness, belief and incredulity, just seemed too apropos to pass on today.
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Sunday, July 11, 2010
It’s “Chapter 66” as U.S. States Face De Facto Bankruptcy / Economics / US Debt
By: Justice_Litle
A number of U.S. states are facing bankruptcy – in fact if not in name – with Illinois and California leading the way.
When an individual goes bankrupt in the United States, it’s usually a Chapter 7. When a business goes under, it’s Chapter 11. Farmers have a Chapter 12, and there is a more complex individual option known as Chapter 13.
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Sunday, July 11, 2010
Economic Austerity or Stimulus Without Significant Reform Is Madness / Economics / Market Regulation
By: Jesse
The economy will not 'cure itself' through benign neglect and liquidationism, because it did not get this way by itself. It did not suffer an accident, or an act of God. This is an unfortunate application of the principle of human healing after an injury to the economy.
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Saturday, July 10, 2010
Thoughts on U.S. Employment Numbers and Double-Dip Recessions / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
It's More Than Just Birth/Death
It's a Seasonal Thing
A Breakdown in Communications
Some Thoughts on Double-Dip Recessions
Just how dynamic is the US job market? If I told you we created over 4 million jobs in April, would you believe me? I had a long conversation with Mohamed El-Erian of PIMCO yesterday. He is openly speculating that employment may no longer be just a lagging indicator but may also be predictive. It is an interesting insight, which we will explore as we take a very deep look at US employment. And I answer a few questions about my thought that there is a 60% chance for a recession in 2011, and why there is a 40% chance we won't. What could change those numbers? We explore that and more, while I suffer from the injustice that LeBron will play with Wade and Bosh. Where's a nonproliferation treaty when you need it?
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Saturday, July 10, 2010
IMF World Economic Growth Forecast Outlook Update / Economics / Global Economy
By: EconGrapher
This week we look at the languishing US consumer credit figures, and the slowing non-manufacturing PMI, then examine the continued string of strong jobs growth in Australia, followed by a wrap-up of some of the key monetary policy decisions this week, and a review of the IMF World Economic Outlook update.
Saturday, July 10, 2010
Potholes in the Economic Recovery, U.S. GDP Forecast / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
For various reasons that will be discussed below, we are lowering our 2010 real gross domestic product (GDP) forecast. At the same time, we are publicly unveiling our 2011 forecast - admittedly not nearly as anxiously awaited as LeBron's revelation. For the second half of 2010, we now are projecting annualized real GDP growth of 1.8% versus our May forecast of 2.5%. This lower second-half projection and the Commerce Department's revised lower first quarter growth reduces our Q4/Q4 2010 real GDP growth forecast to 2.2% versus May's forecast of 2.7%. As a result of our reduced 2010 real GDP growth projection, the forecast for the unemployment rate has been increased. For Q4:2010, we now place the average unemployment rate at 10.3% versus the May forecast of 10.0%. Our Q4/Q4 2011 forecast for real GDP growth is 3.2%.
Saturday, July 10, 2010
Did Retail Sales Rise or Did Tax Rates Go Up? / Economics / Deflation
By: Mike_Shedlock
In response to Following Yesterday's Hype of Fastest Growth in 4 Years, June Retail Sales a "Mixed Bag" a couple of people challenged me on retail sales figures, notably a statement that state sales tax collections were still down.
Let's take a quick look at data from a few key states followed by a closer look under the hood as to what is really happening and why.
Friday, July 09, 2010
Economic Downward Deflationary Spiral: The Next Big Wave of Deflation is Upon Us / Economics / Deflation
By: Global_Research
Michael Schmidt writes: It looks like the next big wave of deflation is upon us. Looking at some key fundamentals, we see the labor market is again shredding jobs (652,000 in June), the money supply is contracting at levels not seen since the Great Depression and the US Federal Governments finances are in complete disaster.
Friday, July 09, 2010
Britain’s Austerity Budget: A Declaration of Class War? / Economics / Economic Austerity
By: Global_Research
Hugo Radice writes: The June Budget - Following the inconclusive outcome of the British general election on May 6th, the ‘centrist’ Liberal Democratic Party decided to turn sharply to the right by agreeing to join the Tories in a coalition government. In the run-up to the election, the Tories had argued strongly that Britain faced the prospect of a fiscal crisis unless the government's deficit was brought down further and faster than the outgoing Labour government intended (see The Bullet no.350).
Friday, July 09, 2010
Uncertainty Undermining the Global Economic Recovery / Economics / Global Economy
By: Money_Morning
Don Miller writes: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said yesterday (Thursday) that the global economic recovery is losing steam because uncertainty in financial markets is keeping businesses and consumers from investing in future growth.
Friday, July 09, 2010
The Global Double-Dip Recession: Which Markets to Hold… And Which Ones May Fold / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes: Last week's stock-market meltdown was a worldwide affair, and was touched off by trader fears of a global "double-dip" recession.
However, the truth is that the odds of a recessionary reprise are high in just a few countries - primarily those that have experienced excessive fiscal and monetary "stimulus," or that have real inflation problems.
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Friday, July 09, 2010
Consumption Inflection Point, No One Wants Credit; Consumer Spending Plans Plunge / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Mike_Shedlock
Consumer credit has fallen an unprecedented 7 consecutive quarters. Moreover, credit is poised to plunge further as consumer spending plans are falling through the floor.
Thursday, July 08, 2010
In the Shadow of the Dragon / Economics / China Economy
By: Peter_Schiff
John Downs writes: Although China is not the biggest economy in the world by GDP, (it is third, after growing a remarkable 8.7 percent last year), its exports are increasingly seen as the needed lifeline for many shaky economies. But as China plots its future as the world's largest exporter, it must be of some concern to them that their top two clients (the US and EU) are broke. As a result, China knows that it will have to look beyond developed markets for continued growth. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 08, 2010
Fastest Growth in 4 Years Retail Sales Hype / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
The Wall Street Journal reports Retailers Turn in a Mixed Bag for June Sales.
Thursday, July 08, 2010
The Real Housewives of Japan Shopping for Bargains Driving Deflation? / Economics / Japan Economy
By: Money_Morning
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: KYOTO, Japan - Could 70,000 Japanese housewives tip this Asian giant into a deflationary spiral?
As farfetched as that sounds, it's become a major cause for concern in this nation of 128 million, which has been in an economic funk for two decades. These "real housewives" are part of a user-driven, social-networking site called Mainichi Tokubai, which delivers the best prices on specific grocery-store items to the fingertips of Tokyo-region consumers.
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Thursday, July 08, 2010
Double-Dip Recessions, Economics and Ice Cream Cones / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Mike_Stathis
Over the past several weeks, you may have heard the back and forth debates regarding the possibility of a double-dip recession between the various media hacks and clowns they interview.
The overwhelming question has been, “Will the U.S. enter a double-dip recession?”
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Thursday, July 08, 2010
The ETA Economic Recovery, Depression Dead Ahead / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Dr_Krassimir_Petrov
Economic experts have used letters like U, V, W, etc. when speaking about the current recession. The letters should represent graphically the course of the recession. The U-shaped recession stands for a fall, some time at the bottom, and a steady recovery. In case of a V-shaped recession, the economy bottoms out quickly and then recovers just as quickly. The concept of using letters is sometimes applied to stock-market bottoms.
Wednesday, July 07, 2010
Ten Economic Blunders from History / Economics / Economic Theory
By: MISES
John S. Chamberlain writes: Take cover when you hear a political leader talking about economic affairs. You can bet a bad decision is incoming. Luckily for the leaders, their meddling usually has a slow, erosive effect on the economy. Every so often, however, the great ones manage to land a real whopper that takes them down along with their whole country. Here are ten examples from history.
Wednesday, July 07, 2010
The Myth of the Global Economy / Economics / Global Economy
By: Ian_Fletcher
If there’s one thing everyone knows these days, whether they’re happy about it or not, it’s that we live in a “global” economy. This fact is taken as so obvious that anyone who disputes it is regarded as not so much wrong as simply ignorant—not even worth arguing with. So it may come as a shock to many that, in reality, the cliché that we live in a borderless global economy does not survive serious examination. The key is to ignore the Thomas Friedmanesque rhetoric the media is flooded with and get down to some hard numbers.
Wednesday, July 07, 2010
Beyond Black Swans, De-Leveraging And Re-Leveraging / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Gary_North
The black swan is the foo bird of modern Keynesianism. It is a threat only because of central bank fiat money and commercial bank leverage.
In a recent report, "China: What Rhymes with 'Crash'?" I wrote this:
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