Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, July 14, 2010
UK Unemployment Falls Inline With Forecast Trend Expectations / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The previous Labour government's debt fuelled election bounce continues to have a positive impact on the UK economy as the number of unemployed for May fell to 2.47 million down by 34,000 in the three months to May. However whilst the ConLIb government may try and claim some credit from Labours lagging unemployment news, the headline figure masks several problem areas such as the rise in the long-term unemployed up by over 60,000 to 787,000.
Wednesday, July 14, 2010
U.S. Economic Recovery and Weak Loan Demand / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Hans_Wagner
You have heard that loan growth is one of the critical elements of economic growth. The last recession saw total outstanding loans plummet as banks tightened up their credit standards and credit demand fell. So far, business loans remain weak indicating business of all sizes are not looking for more credit.
Tuesday, July 13, 2010
The Self-Defeat of the Keynesian Cross / Economics / Economic Theory
By: MISES
Predrag Rajsic writes: The Austrian business-cycle theory, initiated by Ludwig von Mises and further developed and elaborated by F.A. Hayek, is by many considered the cornerstone of this school of thought. However, in 1998, Paul Krugman plainly dismissed the theory as not "worthy of serious study."
Tuesday, July 13, 2010
Inflation, The Runaway Train / Economics / Inflation
By: Kieran_Osborne
Inflationary risks have seemingly fallen out of the mindset of many investors recently, with the European debt crisis causing many to reevaluate their outlook for global economic growth in concert with record low headline CPI numbers being released. Despite this, gold, traditionally a hedge against inflation, continues to move up in price. Is this dynamic inconsistent? We don’t think so. Of course, some of gold’s price movement may reflect its safety aspect, given renewed concerns over the long-term health of the economy, but in our opinion, inflationary concerns are very much valid and should be front and center of any investment strategy going forward.
Tuesday, July 13, 2010
Are We Trending Towards Deflation or in It? / Economics / Deflation
By: Mike_Shedlock
Paul Krugman is worried we are Trending Toward Deflation.
Read full article... Read full article...Inflation has been falling, but how close are we to deflation? I found myself wondering that after observing John Makin’s combusting coiffure, his prediction that we might see deflation this year.
Tuesday, July 13, 2010
UK Inflation Falls to CPI 3.2%, Precisely inline with 2010 Forecast / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK inflation for June 2010 registered a small drop from 3.4% to 3.2%, though remaining stubbornly above the Bank of England's upper limit of 3%, thus the BoE Governor, Mervyn King will write yet another letter to repeat that the high rate of inflation is just "temporary", though when does "temporary" high inflation stop being temporary? 6 months? a year? 2 years? as the country sleep walks into stagflation with all of the consequences for wage earners and savers.
Tuesday, July 13, 2010
How to Fix the U.S. Economy? / Economics / Economic Stimulus
By: Mike_Whitney
There are remedies for recession, and the remedies are well known. But fixing the economy requires special medicine, fiscal stimulus, and if the patient does not take the medicine, he will not improve. It's not enough to have the medicine sitting on one's nightstand. It must be ingested before recovery can begin.
Monday, July 12, 2010
Recession, Deflation and Deficits Economic Outlook 2010 / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
I look forward at the beginning of every quarter to receiving the Quarterly Outlook from Hoisington Investment Management. They have been prominent proponents of the view that deflation is the problem, stemming from a variety of factors, and write about their views in a very clear and concise manner. This quarter's letter is no exception, where they once again delve into the history books to bring up fresh and relevant lessons for today. This is a must read piece.
Monday, July 12, 2010
U.S. Economy Dancing On Quicksand / Economics / US Economy
By: Bob_Clark
Do not attempt to adjust the picture. We control the horizontal and the vertical. (Old outer limits TV show intro)
Bernanke speaking to the heads of the reserve banks.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 12, 2010
Deflation becomes the Dominant Economic Trend / Economics / Deflation
By: Clif_Droke
One of the abiding fears since the government stimulus effort began in earnest last year has been the fear that runaway inflation will once again rear its ugly head. Legions of market commentators have predicted the return of inflation in spite of the deflationary environment we find ourselves in. Can we reasonably expect a return of inflation in the foreseeable future? The Kress Cycles say “No!” and tell us to expect just the opposite, namely a deflationary trend. This has certainly been the dominant economic trend since the credit crisis of 2008 and, in some areas, even before then.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 12, 2010
Obama Failed Economic Policy, No Recovery Without Job Creation / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
There will be no recovery without jobs, and there will be no net job creation if small businesses, especially startups, do not lead the way.
Monday, July 12, 2010
Retail Sales Signal Economic Recovery Or the Bleeding Edge of the Great Recession's Next Down Cycle? / Economics / US Economy
By: Adam_Lass
Is Retail the "guiding light" of the recovery – or the bleeding edge of the Great Recession's next down cycle?
"It was the best of times, it was the worst of times..."
I know it's a bit saddle-worn, but old Chas. Dickens was one heck of a student of humanity, and his opening to A Tale of Two Cities, what with its dichotomous wisdom, foolishness, belief and incredulity, just seemed too apropos to pass on today.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, July 11, 2010
It’s “Chapter 66” as U.S. States Face De Facto Bankruptcy / Economics / US Debt
By: Justice_Litle
A number of U.S. states are facing bankruptcy – in fact if not in name – with Illinois and California leading the way.
When an individual goes bankrupt in the United States, it’s usually a Chapter 7. When a business goes under, it’s Chapter 11. Farmers have a Chapter 12, and there is a more complex individual option known as Chapter 13.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, July 11, 2010
Economic Austerity or Stimulus Without Significant Reform Is Madness / Economics / Market Regulation
By: Jesse
The economy will not 'cure itself' through benign neglect and liquidationism, because it did not get this way by itself. It did not suffer an accident, or an act of God. This is an unfortunate application of the principle of human healing after an injury to the economy.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, July 10, 2010
Thoughts on U.S. Employment Numbers and Double-Dip Recessions / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
It's More Than Just Birth/Death
It's a Seasonal Thing
A Breakdown in Communications
Some Thoughts on Double-Dip Recessions
Just how dynamic is the US job market? If I told you we created over 4 million jobs in April, would you believe me? I had a long conversation with Mohamed El-Erian of PIMCO yesterday. He is openly speculating that employment may no longer be just a lagging indicator but may also be predictive. It is an interesting insight, which we will explore as we take a very deep look at US employment. And I answer a few questions about my thought that there is a 60% chance for a recession in 2011, and why there is a 40% chance we won't. What could change those numbers? We explore that and more, while I suffer from the injustice that LeBron will play with Wade and Bosh. Where's a nonproliferation treaty when you need it?
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, July 10, 2010
IMF World Economic Growth Forecast Outlook Update / Economics / Global Economy
By: EconGrapher
This week we look at the languishing US consumer credit figures, and the slowing non-manufacturing PMI, then examine the continued string of strong jobs growth in Australia, followed by a wrap-up of some of the key monetary policy decisions this week, and a review of the IMF World Economic Outlook update.
Saturday, July 10, 2010
Potholes in the Economic Recovery, U.S. GDP Forecast / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
For various reasons that will be discussed below, we are lowering our 2010 real gross domestic product (GDP) forecast. At the same time, we are publicly unveiling our 2011 forecast - admittedly not nearly as anxiously awaited as LeBron's revelation. For the second half of 2010, we now are projecting annualized real GDP growth of 1.8% versus our May forecast of 2.5%. This lower second-half projection and the Commerce Department's revised lower first quarter growth reduces our Q4/Q4 2010 real GDP growth forecast to 2.2% versus May's forecast of 2.7%. As a result of our reduced 2010 real GDP growth projection, the forecast for the unemployment rate has been increased. For Q4:2010, we now place the average unemployment rate at 10.3% versus the May forecast of 10.0%. Our Q4/Q4 2011 forecast for real GDP growth is 3.2%.
Saturday, July 10, 2010
Did Retail Sales Rise or Did Tax Rates Go Up? / Economics / Deflation
By: Mike_Shedlock
In response to Following Yesterday's Hype of Fastest Growth in 4 Years, June Retail Sales a "Mixed Bag" a couple of people challenged me on retail sales figures, notably a statement that state sales tax collections were still down.
Let's take a quick look at data from a few key states followed by a closer look under the hood as to what is really happening and why.
Friday, July 09, 2010
Economic Downward Deflationary Spiral: The Next Big Wave of Deflation is Upon Us / Economics / Deflation
By: Global_Research
Michael Schmidt writes: It looks like the next big wave of deflation is upon us. Looking at some key fundamentals, we see the labor market is again shredding jobs (652,000 in June), the money supply is contracting at levels not seen since the Great Depression and the US Federal Governments finances are in complete disaster.
Friday, July 09, 2010
Britain’s Austerity Budget: A Declaration of Class War? / Economics / Economic Austerity
By: Global_Research
Hugo Radice writes: The June Budget - Following the inconclusive outcome of the British general election on May 6th, the ‘centrist’ Liberal Democratic Party decided to turn sharply to the right by agreeing to join the Tories in a coalition government. In the run-up to the election, the Tories had argued strongly that Britain faced the prospect of a fiscal crisis unless the government's deficit was brought down further and faster than the outgoing Labour government intended (see The Bullet no.350).