Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, July 29, 2010
Austrian Business Cycle Theory Vs Keynesians / Economics / Economic Theory
By: J_M_Finegold_Catalan
The current recession has brought back discussion on the merits of countercyclical fiscal and monetary policy. Broadly speaking, the economics profession is divided into two camps. One side is made up of "liquidationists" and "deficit hawks," supporting tight monetary policy and low — or no — government spending. The other group is composed of those fearing a fall in prices, who support easy credit and expansive fiscal policy to combat it. While most economists probably fall in between, this dichotomy represents the two poles. The extremes are occupied by the Austrian School on one end and Paul Krugman on (or close enough to) the other.
Thursday, July 29, 2010
Price Stability Not a Fed Priority / Economics / Inflation
By: Richard_Daughty
I knew the instant that I read the article’s title, “Fed Nominees Seek Economic Boost” in The Wall Street Journal, that I was probably going to be outraged and end up screaming a fearful and angry Mogambo Howl Of Anger (MHOA).
It was, alas, a feeling of doom that soon gave way to stark fear when I saw that the accompanying photo was captioned “Fed nominees – Janet Yellen, Peter Diamond and Sarah Bloom Raskin – at a Senate hearing Thursday.”
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Thursday, July 29, 2010
Bill Gross Ponders "Deep Demographic Doo-Doo" / Economics / Demographics
By: Mike_Shedlock
Bill Gross usually writes an interesting column provided you skip over the first few paragraphs of introduction. His August Investment Outlook regarding population demographics is no different. Please consider Private Eyes.
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Hotel Industry Rebound Points to a Recovering U.S. Economy / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Investment_U
Martin Denholm writes: When you’re traveling, what’s your preference when it comes to accommodation?
After a lengthy, recession-induced downturn, the latest industry figures suggest that more Americans are choosing hotels.
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Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Don't Lose Sleep over Deflation / Economics / Deflation
By: Michael_Pento
After hearing the dire warnings of deflation that have become the standard talking points of most economists, American investors may be reaching for a bottle of Prozac. I believe that their anxiety is misplaced. Unfortunately, modern economists don't understand what deflation is or why, in reality, we have much more to fear from inflation.
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Kindergarten Double Dip Recession Economics / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Jim_Willie_CB
Double Dip used to pertain to ice cream cones, but now to dreaded return to economic recession. Green Shoots used to refer to gardening projects, then to deceptive economic viewpoints. My favorite is the second half recovery mantra, indicative of totally clueless. This year's promised recovery in the second half of the year will feature a return to recession instead, thus stripping mainstream economists of any remaining credibility. The endless links in the chain are impressive by the clueless cast of economists that disgrace the US landscape.
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Economists Miss Durable Goods Orders Slump / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Mike_Shedlock
I cannot help but laugh at economists who refuse to see the economy is slowing dramatically, and somehow think manufacturing is going to lead the way to recovery.
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Copper Signaling A Strong Economic Recovery / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Money_Morning
Jon D. Markman writes: As stocks have slipped lower over the last three months, copper has bucked the broad trend and broken the pattern of lower highs and lower lows it set in the spring.
After bottoming on June 7, the iPath Dow Jones-UBS Copper Subindex Total Return ETN - which closely tracks copper futures - has gained more than 12.2%. In the same span, the Russell 2000 small cap stock index has lost 0.6%.
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Wednesday, July 28, 2010
US Treasury Running on Fumes, Down to the Last Trillion in Red Ink / Economics / US Debt
By: Paul_Craig_Roberts
The White House is screaming like a stuck pig. WikiLeaks’ release of the Afghan War Documents “puts the lives of our soldiers and our coalition partners at risk.”
What nonsense. Obama’s war puts the lives of American soldiers at risk, and the craven puppet state behavior of “our partners” in serving as US mercenaries is what puts their troops at risk.
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Government Economic Lies, The Grossly Problematic Gross Domestic Product / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: LewRockwell
Richard C.B. Johnsson writes: There might be many other valid concerns about the concept of Gross Domestic Product, but the perhaps most acute one is that one particular component of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) remains on a net basis. How about that, such a widely used and supposedly gross measure has a mix of gross and net components! There can’t be any logical justifications for that at all. Obviously, a net measure should only have net components and a gross measure only have gross components, but mixing gross and net terms seems completely illogical and inconsistent.
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Economic Warnings From Niall Ferguson and Nassim Taleb / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Gary_North
Two widely respected economic commentators, Harvard's Niall Ferguson and Nassim "black swan" Taleb, have offered highly pessimistic assessments of what lies ahead for the American economy.
Information like this is widely ignored by investors in weeks when they have decided that nothing can stop them: they will get rich by investing in the American stock market, no matter what. On July 21, Ben Bernanke told the Senate Banking committee that "the economic outlook looks unusually uncertain." Stocks fell sharply as soon as he gave his testimony. But the Dow Jones Industrial Average recovered at the opening bell the next day, and then rose by almost 400 points over the next three business days. There was no news that countered Bernanke's assessment. Investors simply shrugged it off.
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Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Will U.S. House Prices Drive The 4.8% “Consensus” Nominal GDP Growth Forecast? / Economics / US Economy
By: Andrew_Butter
I looked up the “consensus” for nominal US GDP growth in The Economist today; you have to add “real” to “CPI” to get the answer - I’m not interested in “real”, for me “real” is what they measure (nominal), and the un-reality starts when they subtract whatever weird and wonderful concoction of inflation is handed down by the Bureau of Labor.
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
U.S. Economy Heading For Double Dip Recession / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: John_Browne
At long last, a good portion of mainstream economists now concede that a 'double dip' recession is in the cards for the United States. To head off the pain, sixteen top economists addressed an open letter to the President urging him to "stimulate" the economy with a massive new round of government spending. We feel this is a recipe for driving a recession into a depression. However, there can be few doubts that such a move is being considered in the highest policy circles. Flush from victories in financial regulation and healthcare, the Administration may feel the conditions are ripe to push through another bold initiative.
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Tuesday, July 27, 2010
European Sovereign Debt Crisis, Running Through a Minefield Backwards / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: John_Mauldin
Before we get into today's Outside the Box I want to clear up a few ideas from this weekend's letter. There have been posts on various websites equating my piece on deflation with Paul Krugman. They say I am advocating kicking the can down the road and not reducing the deficit.
Wrong. What I have been trying to point out for several years is that we have no good choices. We are down to bad and very bad choices. The very bad choice (leading to disastrous - think Greece) is to continue to run massive deficits. The merely bad choice is to reduce the deficits gradually over time. As I try to point out, reducing the deficits has consequences in the short term. It WILL affect GDP in the short term. Krugman and the neo-Keynesians are right about that. To deny that is to ignore basic arithmetic.
Monday, July 26, 2010
Three Emerging Economies Bucking the Depression Downtrend / Economics / Emerging Markets
By: Q1_Publishing
Despite the downturn, they’re absolutely booming. While most-watched stock markets are flat at best, their stock markets are running up.
Best of all, there are a lot of reasons these runs will continue in the short- and long-term.
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Monday, July 26, 2010
The Deflationary Cycle Full Monty, Eight Risks That Will Cause Deflation / Economics / Deflation
By: JD_Rosendahl
In the past couple years I have written quite a few blogs. One of my personal favorites has to be: Mustard Seeds for Deflation: The Deflationary Cycle Full Monty. This was my somewhat complete case for a deflationary spiral written in August 2009.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 26, 2010
Four Shocking Economic Bombshells Bernanke Did NOT Tell Congress About Last Week / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Martin_D_Weiss
In his testimony before Congress last week, Ben Bernanke lifted the Fed’s skirt and gave us a glimpse of the disasters now sweeping through the U.S. economy.
But there are four bombshells he did NOT talk about:
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Monday, July 26, 2010
The Illuson of Economic Recovery, Major Indicators Point Towards Further Collapse / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Bob_Chapman
The talk of recovery pervades insider thinking. The major media worldwide plays the same refrain. This is a desperate attempt to befuddle the public with misdirected propaganda to preserve confidence in a system that is in a state of collapse. As CNBC leads the charge, loss of faith in the system grows with each passing day. In spite of control of the major media by elitists, talk radio and the Internet hammers away incessantly with the truth influencing more and more 24/7 worldwide. As a result of the success of the alternative media a good many investors realize we have a systemic credit crisis that has turned into a debt crisis as well.
Monday, July 26, 2010
Inflation, The Coming Rice in Prices / Economics / Inflation
By: Howard_Katz
Last week I argued that the theory of a coming decline in prices just around the corner was a balloon full of hot air, and like all such balloons it was bound to sail into the atmosphere. So far from this “deflation” theory being true, it is a deliberate falsehood and in fact is a very good indicator that the exact opposite will happen.
Sunday, July 25, 2010
Credit Based on Consumption Not Savings, Real Bills Revisted / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Professor_Emeritus
Adam Smith in his Wealth of Nations worked out the foundations of a second type of credit that is based, not on savings, but on consumption. Later this theory was pejoratively called "Real Bills Doctrine" by its detractors. We stick to this name because the adjective "real" admirably captures the essence of a bill of exchange, making it different from anticipation bills, accommodation bills, treasury bills, which all have a measure of being "unreal".