Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, November 22, 2010
U.S. Unemployment to Remain High Through 2011 and Beyond / Economics / US Economy
By: Money_Morning
Don Miller writes:
Stocks are up nearly 70% from their bear market lows. Corporate profits are rising. And the economy is expanding. Yet the unemployment rate continues to hover around 10%.
Neither President Barack Obama's $787 billion stimulus program, nor the U.S. Federal Reserve's quantitative easing has generated enough good news to convince companies to hire meaningful numbers of new workers.
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Monday, November 22, 2010
Ireland Bailout Consequences for Britain, Portugal Next? Stock Market Correction Over? / Economics / Credit Crisis Bailouts
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Ireland's Government drops the mantra of no bailout by finally coming clean to the Irish public that a multi-billion Euro bailout has been agreed ahead of markets opening on Monday. Many Irish citizens will be angry that they have been repeatedly lied to as a series of senior government politician's have stepped forward these past few weeks to make announcements that Ireland was not seeking a bailout when the facts where the complete opposite as an accelerating bank run was under way on Irish banks, with depositors having already pulled out an estimated Euro 25 billion.
Sunday, November 21, 2010
Are We Living in the Federal Reserve's QE2 Twilight Zone? / Economics / Quantitative Easing
By: Trader_Mark
On Monday, an old friend sent me a link to a now virally famous cartoon clip via YouTube. The clip is a depiction of the Federal Reserve's second round of quantitative easing in a simplified, humorous manner and has been viewed over 1.6 million times, not to mention it had a front and center showing on CNBC.
Sunday, November 21, 2010
Fed's Hidden Agenda of Driving U.S. Into a Second Great Depression / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Washingtons_Blog
Ben Bernanke has said that the Fed is trying to promote inflation, increase lending, reduce unemployment, and stimulate the economy.
However, the Fed has arguably - to some extent - been working against all of these goals.
Saturday, November 20, 2010
Quantitative Easing QE2 and the Looming Threat of a Crippling Debt Service / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Ellen_Brown
The deficit hawks are circling, hovering over QE2, calling it just another inflationary bank bailout. But unlike QE1, QE2 is not about saving the banks. It’s about funding the federal deficit without increasing the interest tab, something that may be necessary in this gridlocked political climate just to keep the government functioning.
Saturday, November 20, 2010
Global Financial System Crisis, Collapse in Consumer Spending, Unemployment, Rising Prices / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Bob_Chapman
We hear stories about oil and about how it will probably move higher, perhaps to $150.00 a barrel and perhaps higher. This is the first time in more than three years that it has moved to lofty levels. The net speculative long position is more than 200,000 contracts, or about 35% higher than in 2007. Some economies are doing well, particularly in Asia and in Latin America, but not enough to create such higher prices. $60.00 a barrel would more nearly meet demand.
Saturday, November 20, 2010
The Sputtering U.S. Economy, Deflation Exactly Where is it? / Economics / Deflation
By: John_Mauldin
The Sputtering Economy
Old and Outmoded
We Have Deflation Exactly Where?
O Deflation, Where is Thy Sting?
The CPI was out this week, and it showed a continued drop in inflation. There were those who immediately pointed out that this vindicated the Fed's move to QE2. We have to get ahead of this deflation thing, don't we? Well, maybe, depending on how you measure inflation/deflation. This week we look deep into the BLS website on inflation to see just exactly what it is we are measuring, and then take a walk down Nostalgia Lane. But first we look at what I think we can call The Sputtering Economy, because that will tie into our inflation discussion.
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Saturday, November 20, 2010
Zombie Keynesianism / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Michael_S_Rozeff
The Keynesians are having a highly public quarrel on a deep and divisive issue – a fundamental issue. They are wrangling over exchange rates.
Obama and Bernanke and the U.S. Congress want the Chinese to raise the value of the Chinese currency. The Chinese don’t want to.
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Saturday, November 20, 2010
Is Inflation Lurking Around the Corner? / Economics / Inflation
By: Asha_Bangalore
The potential inflationary impact of the second round of quantitative easing, QE2, is at the top of the list of charges critics have complied against the Fed. Let us look at the current evidence on inflation, inflation expectations, and the Fed's tool kit to fight inflation to conclude if the fear of inflation is credible.
Starting with the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the October CPI rose 0.2% and the core CPI, which excludes food and energy, held steady. The year-to-year change of both price measures shows a decelerating trend since the early part of the year (see chart 2).
Friday, November 19, 2010
Will Christmas Shopping Revive the U.S. Economy? / Economics / US Economy
By: Danny_Schechter
Funny how, back in 1929, we had a black Thursday and then a Black Friday as the market crashed, plunging the country into a depression. Now we have every retailer in every mall in America on their knees praying for a prosperous black Friday the day after Thanksgiving,
Friday, November 19, 2010
Bernanke Seeks New International Monetary System, Warns End of US Economic Recovery / Economics / Global Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
In speeches before a European Central Bank conference in Frankfurt, Ben Bernanke went on an unprecedented attack, accusing China of throwing a monkey wrench into the global recovery, blaming China for slow global growth and a potential "End to the Tepid U.S. Recovery".
Thursday, November 18, 2010
U.S. Jobless Claims 4-Week Moving Average Inching Below 450K / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
Initial jobless claims rose 2,000 to 439,000 during the week ended November 13. Continuing claims, which lag initial jobless claims by one week, fell 48,000 to 4.295 million, the fourth consecutive weekly decline. A large part of the decline is attributed to expiration of eligibility for unemployment insurance. Unemployment claims under special programs increased 121,238. It remains a challenge to sort out the special programs data as a number of people could be no longer eligible under the guidelines of the programs.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 18, 2010
Index of Leading Economic Indicators Posts Second Impressive Monthly Gain / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) rose 0.5% in October, following an upwardly revised 0.5% gain in September. The June-August readings of the LEI cast a shadow on the nature of the recovery. Moreover, the three-month annualized increase of the LEI, at 4.8%, is the largest increase since June 2010 (see chart 2). The reversal of the 3-month annualized change of the LEI supports predictions of faster economic growth in 2011.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 18, 2010
Is the Philly Fed Survey the Precursor of More Bullish Economic Numbers? / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's business survey results for November show a strong rebound. The broadest measure of factory conditions increased to 22.5 in November from 1.0 in the October (see chart 1). The index tracking new orders rose to 10.4 in November from -5.0 in the prior month. Indexes measuring shipments (16.8 vs. 1.4 in October), number of employees (13.3 vs. 2.4 in October) and the employee workweek (22.3 vs. 15.9 in October) also advanced in November.
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Thursday, November 18, 2010
What Drives Business Profits? / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Kel_Kelly
The economic and business community constantly attempts to forecast the effects of various economic changes and government policies on corporate profits. But both the cause and effect of increasing profits are other than what most people imagine. It will therefore be helpful to gain a concrete understanding of what profits do and do not represent.[1]
Thursday, November 18, 2010
U.S. Inflation Remains Contained, In Contrast to Fed’s Preference / Economics / Inflation
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) moved up 0.2% in October, after a 0.1% gain in the prior month. The year-to-year change is 1.2%, with the CPI trending down after a 2.7% increase in December. During the July-October period, energy prices have lifted the overall CPI. In October, higher gasoline prices (+4.6%) were responsible for nearly 90% of the increase in the CPI. The CPI excluding energy held steady in October after a similar reading in the prior month. Food prices inched up 0.1% in October, putting the year-to-year gain at 1.4%.
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Wednesday, November 17, 2010
China Continuing Pointers to Strong Economic Growth For 2011 / Economics / China Economy
By: Money_Morning
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes:
BEIJING, People's Republic of China – While other investors are busy rounding up all sorts of economic data, tea leaves and fortune cookies in an attempt to figure out China's economic situation next year, I'm heading out the door once again to take a look at hairy crab prices.
Because of the timing of this trip, I'm a bit late in the season – but not enough that I won't be able to get a good reading on this surprisingly accurate indicator of China's economic health.
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Wednesday, November 17, 2010
Six Million Benefit Paying Jobs Vanish in One Year! / Economics / Employment
By: Mike_Shedlock
Analysis of weekly unemployment data and covered employees shows that 5,977,844 benefit paying jobs have been lost in the last year.
Wednesday, November 17, 2010
Turkey Deepens Strategic Relationship with China / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Global_Intel_Report
INCIDENT: The visit by Turkey's Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu to Beijing a week ago, follows by a scant three weeks the visit by China's Prime Minister Wen Jiabao to Ankara on 78 October as part of the latter's European diplomatic tour also including Belgium, Germany, Greece, and Italy in the margin of his participation in an EU-China summit.
Wednesday, November 17, 2010
U.S. Factory Production Moves Ahead in October, Energy Costs Pushing Up Inflation / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Asha_Bangalore
Industrial production held steady in October after a 0.2% drop in the prior month. Activity at the nation's mines (-0.1%) and utilities (-3.4%) declined in October and offset the gains in manufacturing output. Factory production rose 0.5% in October after holding nearly steady for two consecutive months. Nearly all major categories of manufacturing posted gains in October - autos (+5.0%), wood products (+2.5%), machinery (+1.4%), computers (+0.7%) and furniture (+0.8%). The small reversal of a decelerating trend (year-to-year change, see chart 1) is the important aspect to note from the October data.