Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, December 04, 2010
There’s Still Hope for Modern Economists / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Barry_Elias
A recent blog of mine, dated Nov. 12, 2010, suggested that modern economists have modeled the economic decision-making process for many years with a high degree of inaccuracy.
They implemented a methodology referred to as the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model.
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Saturday, December 04, 2010
U.S. November Employment Situation Supports Fed QE2 Program / Economics / Employment
By: Asha_Bangalore
Civilian Unemployment Rate: 9.8% in November, held between 9.5% and 9.6% for five straight months. The unemployment rate was 5.0% in December 2007 when the recession commenced. Cycle high for recession is 10.1% in October 2009 and the cycle low (for the expansion that ended in December 2007) is 4.4% in March 2007.
Payroll Employment: 39,000 in November vs. +172,000 in October. Private sector jobs increased 50,000 after a gain of 160,000 in October. Revisions for September and October resulted in a net gain of 38,000 jobs in the economy and 6,000 jobs in the private sector.
Friday, December 03, 2010
More Economic Stimulus Means Fewer U.S. Jobs / Economics / Unemployment
By: Peter_Schiff
Today's payroll report severely disappointed on the downside and left economists scratching their heads to explain the weakness. The explanation, however, is plain as day. As I have been saying for years, the US economy will not create jobs as long as the Fed keeps interest rates artificially low, and Congress keeps stimulating spending and consumer debt, punishing employers with mandates, regulations, and taxes, crowding out private investment with massive government borrowing, and preventing market forces from restructuring our out-of-balance economy.
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Friday, December 03, 2010
U.S. Labor Market Musings Prior to the November Employment Report / Economics / Unemployment
By: Asha_Bangalore
Labor market indicators are sending a mixed message. Today's jobless claims report continues to suggest that the economic recovery is not sufficiently strong to bring about a meaningful reduction in the number of jobless claims. Initial jobless claims rose 26,000 to 436,000 during the week ended November 27.
Thursday, December 02, 2010
How can the U.S. Economy Recover When its People Have Less Money? / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Pravda
How in the world is the U.S. economy going to recover if the American people have less money to spend? Millions of American families are heading into 2011 knowing that either they won't be seeing an increase in income or that their incomes will be smaller next year.
Thursday, December 02, 2010
Is Quantitative Easing (QE2) the Road to Zimbabwe Style Hyperinflation? / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Ellen_Brown
Unlike Zimbabwe, the U.S. can easily get the currency it needs without being beholden to anyone. But wouldn't that dilute the value of the currency? No.
A month ago, the bond vigilantes were screaming that the Fed’s QE2 would be the first step on the road to Zimbabwe-style hundred trillion dollar notes. Zimbabwe (the former Southern Rhodesia) is the poster example of what can go wrong when a government pays its bills by printing money. Zimbabwe’s economy collapsed in 2008, when its currency hyperinflated to the point that it was trading with the U.S. dollar at an exchange rate of 10 trillion to 1. On November 29, Cullen Roche wrote in the Pragmatic Capitalist:
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Thursday, December 02, 2010
Auto Sales Held Steady in November / Economics / US Auto's
By: Asha_Bangalore
Sales of autos held steady in November at an annual rate of 12.26, which supports expectations of growth in consumer spending in the fourth quarter, close to the 2.8% increase seen in the third quarter.
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Thursday, December 02, 2010
ISM Manufacturing Survey – Slight Moderation in U.S. Factory Activity / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The ISM manufacturing survey results for November show a moderation in the pace of activity. The level of the composite index during November (56.6) suggests that the manufacturing is growing but at a slightly slower pace compared with October (56.9). Indexes tracking new orders (56.6 vs. 58.9 in October) and production (55.0 vs. 62.7 in October) declined but are holding above 50.0. Indexes measuring employment and exports dropped, while the import orders index moved up during November. The national index points to a mild slowing in factory conditions, while the November regional surveys of Philadelphia, Chicago, and New York sent a more bullish message.
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Wednesday, December 01, 2010
U.S. Consumer Confidence Advances in November, Another Bullish Report for the Month / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index rose to 54.1 in November from 49.9 in October. Both the Present Situation Index (24.0 vs. 23.5) and Expectations Index (74.2 vs. 67.5) advanced in November. There is a bullish tone in economic reports of November - payroll employment, auto sales, factory production, retail sales, regional purchasing managers' surveys and consumer confidence measures among other reports that have been disappointing - home sales, jobless rate, durable goods orders.
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Tuesday, November 30, 2010
IMF and EU Hammer Ireland / Economics / Economic Austerity
By: Mike_Whitney
The terms of the EU/IMF's €85 billion ($113 billion) bailout for Ireland are much worse than analysts had anticipated. Ireland will be required to use its National Pension Reserve Fund (NPRF) to shore up its insolvent banks and to maintain government operations. At the same time, senior debt-holders will not share any of the losses brought on by the banks reckless lending. According to Bloomberg News, "Prime Minister Brian Cowen told reporters there had been no support in talks to ask senior bondholders to lose part of their stake on loans made to Ireland's debt-crippled banks." Thus, 100 percent of the EU/IMF's €85 billion "Financial Rescue Package" will be paid for by Irish taxpayers.
Tuesday, November 30, 2010
U.S. Household Debt Deleveraging - Largest Decline on Record / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The soft trajectory of consumer spending and continued reduction in residential investment expenditures reflects the sharp reduction in household debt. Outstanding home mortgages have dropped from $10.606 trillion in the first quarter of 2008 to $10.126 trillion in the second quarter of 2010 (see Chart 1). Household credit card debt has fallen roughly $157 billion from the peak in the third quarter of 2008 to $2.41 trillion (see Chart 1).
Monday, November 29, 2010
India: Land of Hope and Economic Growth / Economics / India
By: Frank_Holmes
Indian markets have rebounded nicely from the crisis, outperforming both the U.S. and China over the past three years. As of November 23, India’s Sensex was up just over 6 percent for the past three years, while the S&P 500 Index was down more than 16 percent and China’s Hang Seng Index was down 43 percent over the same time period.
Monday, November 29, 2010
Modern Academic Economists Misinterpret Quantitative Easing / Economics / Quantitative Easing
By: Barry_Elias
If you are interested in promoting long-term, sustainable economic growth, I submit the velocity of money is more pertinent than the quantity of money (quantitative easing).
Apparently, many modern economists haven’t focused sufficiently on this economic parameter.
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Sunday, November 28, 2010
Slow Economic Recovery and Recessions on the Margin / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: John_Mauldin
Recessions Are on the Margin
A Rose is Still a Rose
If It Feels Like a Recession
The Rough Road Back
And the data out over the last few weeks tells us it is getting better. Does this take us out of the double-dip woods, even as the Fed is lowering its forecast? And what is a recession? Yes, we all know it's when the economy doesn't grow, but we are in a rather unique economic environment, this time. Maybe things are getting better, but is it enough to get us back on the road to full employment?
Saturday, November 27, 2010
The Euro Zone’s Debt Crisis Timeout Is Expiring! / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Bryan_Rich
Last year’s Thanksgiving weekend was an unusually active holiday news cycle.
Of course, it was when Tiger Woods had his bizarre car accident outside of his home. That saga would dominate the news for months to come. The lesser-followed news item of that weekend came out of Dubai when the emirate announced it would restructure its sovereign debt.
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Saturday, November 27, 2010
Destructive Neoliberal Economic Austerity / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Stephen_Lendman
Instead of vitally needed stimulus, Washington and European governments dictate austerity. The pretext of deficit reduction is being used to transfer more wealth to those already with too much, plus the usual canard over the urgency to save national banking systems. In other words, make ordinary people bear the burden of bailing out banking giants responsible for the severest economic crisis since the Great Depression. How? The usual IMF solution, involving preservation of capital at the expense of workers - a package including wage and benefit cuts, less social spending, privatization of state resources, mass layoffs, deregulation, lower "onerous" taxes, maintaining corporate debt service, and harsh crackdowns against resisters.
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Saturday, November 27, 2010
Europe's Falling Debt Domino's - Greece → Ireland → Portugal → Spain → Italy → UK → ? / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Washingtons_Blog
It is now common knowledge that there is a potential domino effect of European sovereign debt contagion in roughly the following order:
Greece → Ireland → Portugal → Spain → Italy → UK
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Saturday, November 27, 2010
Bernanke Rolling the Dice: America's Financial Dilemma / Economics / US Economy
By: Bob_Chapman
There is no question that the world is at a boil. Germany is drawing anger; N. Korea has attacked S. Korea; flaying about the FED’s Mr. Bernanke blames China for America’s sad economic and financial dilemma; five suits, class action and RICO, have been filed against JPMorgan Chase and HSBC for having manipulated silver prices and class actions are rumored to be in process for naked shorting, which has been rampant in the market for years, a felony hedge fund investigation of insider trading, which the SEC has absolutely refused to pursue.
Saturday, November 27, 2010
11 Statistics Show Just How Far the Economy Has Deteriorated / Economics / Great Depression II
By: LewRockwell
Economic Collapse writes: Are you better off today than you were four years ago? Unfortunately, most Americans are not. Both political parties have controlled the White House during the last four years – Barack Obama has been in office for nearly two years and before him it was George W. Bush – and yet no matter what politicians we send to Washington D.C. things just seem to keep getting worse. We buy more than we produce, we spend more than we bring in, we have 18 times as many "problem banks" as we did 4 years ago, the number of Americans on food stamps continues to set a new all-time record every month and we are living in the greatest debt bubble in the history of the world. But at least the majority of Americans are still prosperous enough to enjoy a happy Thanksgiving inside a warm, comfortable home. Unfortunately, if things keep going the way they are going, we are going to experience a national economic nightmare that nobody will be thankful for.
Friday, November 26, 2010
Economic Boom, Bust, and Gold / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Frank_Shostak
In his interview with the CNBC on November 9, 2010, a highly regarded Wall Street economist, Nouriel Roubini, the cofounder and chairman of Roubini Global Economics, said that a gold standard is unlikely to stabilize the financial system. On the contrary, holds Roubini, such a standard can only make things much worse.