Initial jobless claims rose 2,000 to 439,000 during the week ended November 13. Continuing claims, which lag initial jobless claims by one week, fell 48,000 to 4.295 million, the fourth consecutive weekly decline. A large part of the decline is attributed to expiration of eligibility for unemployment insurance. Unemployment claims under special programs increased 121,238. It remains a challenge to sort out the special programs data as a number of people could be no longer eligible under the guidelines of the programs.

The 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims at 443,000 has inched below 450,000 for the second consecutive week. It has held around 450,000 since April, excluding a few weekly readings in August and September (see chart 3). We will be tracking these numbers closely in the weeks ahead. Ideally, readings below 400,000 would be preferred, but this evidence is a step in the right direction.

Asha Bangalore — Senior Vice President and Economist

http://www.northerntrust.com
Asha Bangalore is Vice President and Economist at The Northern Trust Company, Chicago. Prior to joining the bank in 1994, she was Consultant to savings and loan institutions and commercial banks at Financial & Economic Strategies Corporation, Chicago.

The opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of The Northern Trust Company. The Northern Trust Company does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions.

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