Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, November 26, 2010
The Best Way To Play U.S. Sleeper Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Sean_Brodrick
Like gasoline seeping across a floor, inflation is slowly spreading across the globe, waiting to ignite. When it finally combusts, the move higher in prices could be explosive. Yet many U.S. citizens are going to be caught totally unaware because prices — for now — are generally flat and even falling.
This has opportunity written all over it. I’ll get to that in a bit. First, some facts on how the signs of deflation are around us:
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Friday, November 26, 2010
BLS Makes Sure there is No U.S. Food Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Fred_Sheehan
"Moreover, inflation has been declining and is currently quite low, with measures of underlying inflation running close to 1 percent....In this environment, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) judged that additional monetary policy accommodation was needed to support the economic recovery and help ensure that inflation, over time, is at desired levels." -Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, Sixth European Central Bank, Central Banking Conference; Frankfurt, Germany; November 19, 2010
Friday, November 26, 2010
Global Economy Key Projections For 2011 And Beyond / Economics / Global Economy
By: Akhil_Khanna
We would first evaluate the performance of our projections for 2010 as outlined in our forecasts last year (http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article15943.html) before taking a shot at predicting the direction of the Global Economy for 2011.
Thursday, November 25, 2010
Ireland's Brutal Four-Year Economic Austerity Plan / Economics / Economic Austerity
By: Submissions
Rory Fitzgerald writes: The EU Commission has called the Irish government's Four Year Plan a "cornerstone" of the bailout package currently under discussion between Ireland, Europe and the IMF.
Market insiders have called the plan "staggeringly austere" and the proof of their scepticism lies in the fact that bond yields widened further still after the plan was announced. David Begg, head of the Irish Congress of Trade Unions said: "It appears that the day of reckoning has arrived. The Barbarians are at the gates."
Thursday, November 25, 2010
Consumer Spending on Track for Sustained Growth in Q4 / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Asha_Bangalore
Real consumer spending rose 0.3% in October, following a 0.2% gain in the prior month. A large part of the increase was from purchases of cars and other recreational vehicles. Outlays on services held steady during October after a 0.1% increase in September. The October consumer spending data combined with conservative projections in the last two months of year points to moderate growth during the fourth quarter.
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Thursday, November 25, 2010
Ellen Brown Response to Gary North: QE2 IS the Populist Solution / Economics / Quantitative Easing
By: Ellen_Brown
Gary North, who purports to be an expert on the errors in my book “Web of Debt,” has evidently not actually read it. In an article posted on the Market Oracle on November 23, he says that in calling QE2 (the Fed’s new quantitative easing program) a “bold precedent,” I have switched sides. He apparently missed the entire chapter I wrote on this subject, first published in “Web of Debt” in 2007, saying exactly what I am saying now.
Thursday, November 25, 2010
Global Debt Crisis Implosions, Use Gold and Silver to Protect from The Big One, Coming Soon / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: DeepCaster_LLC
“Attempts to bail out the Irish banking sector via multinational loans will only increase debt burdens in Europe and lead to a nightmarish scenario there, says New York University economist Nouriel Roubini.
There is too much private debt in Ireland, and aid from the International Monetary Fund, the European Union or whoever merely amounts to pushing the payday down the road and ultimately increasing the total amount owed in the end.
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Thursday, November 25, 2010
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Discouraging Report / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
Orders of durable goods fell 3.3% in October vs. a 5.0% increase in September. Orders of non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft dropped 4.5% in October following a 1.9% gain in September.
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Thursday, November 25, 2010
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Decline / Economics / Unemployment
By: Asha_Bangalore
Initial jobless claims fell 34,000 to 407,000 during the week ended November 20. This is the lowest count of initial jobless claims since July 19, 2008. The four-week moving average, at 436,000, is noticeably below 450,000, which has been the level around which initial jobless claims have been holding since April. Continuing claims, which lag initial claims by one week, fell 142,000 to 4.182 million. Unemployment insurance claims under special programs also dropped 262,000 for the week ended November 6 (see Chart 7). The decline in initial jobless claims suggests that labor market conditions are improving
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Wednesday, November 24, 2010
Hyperinflation is Most Likely to Strike Amidst Real Deflation / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Adrian_Ash
Hyperinflation is not simply inflation times 10. It's most likely to strike – in fact – amidst a real deflation...
SO the FEDERAL RESERVE's second-round of quantitative easing, announced on November 3rd, was a shoo-in – a fait accompli – already decided when the policy team first sat down the previous day.
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Wednesday, November 24, 2010
QE2 and The Great Economic Misdiagnosis, Insolvency Not Illiquidity / Economics / Quantitative Easing
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The backdrop has turned dire on several front simultaneously. The great millstone around the USEconomy's neck continues to drag it down. CoreLogic reported 2.1 million units have created a swamp in Shadow inventory of the housing market. That equates to 23 months inventory, whereas normal is 7 months. They tallied the growing tumor of bank owned properties as a result of home foreclosures, also called the REOs (real estate owned). Look for no housing market recovery for at least another two years. Starting in summer 2007, the Jackass forecast each year has been for another two years of housing market declines, all correct. Ireland might be squarely in the news, but the big enchalada is Spain. The Irish banks have presented a grand headache for the European banks, with a $150 billion exposure. Ironically, Ireland has done more to reduce its budget spending effectively than any EU member nation, yet is left to twist in the soft rain. They cut their government budget by 20%.
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
Raising Taxes Is Not Reducing Government Spending / Economics / Economic Theory
By: George_Reisman
Sunday's New York Times carries an article titled "The Blur Between Spending and Taxes." The author is Harvard Professor N. Gregory Mankiw.[1] The essential theme of the article is that the government is spending when it decides to forgo tax revenue that it otherwise could have collected. Indeed, tax revenues forgone in the enactment of tax deductions, such as for interest payments on home mortgages or charitable contributions, and tax credits, such as for first-time homebuyers or adoptions, are now commonly described as "Tax Expenditures." The thought is that the government is spending money in deciding not to take it in taxes and to allow the taxpayers to keep it.
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
Mounting Unemployment in America: Poverty and "Social Explosion" / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Bob_Chapman
The social net has become a bit more frayed. Soon extended unemployment benefits will cease and 2 million Americans will have to dip into their savings, if they have any. This is an outgrowth of the effects of free trade, globalization, offshoring and outsourcing. We have lost 8.5 million jobs over the last ten years to this destructive process. We have seen more than 42,000 manufacturing plants leave the country as well.
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
New Estimate Indicates Real U.S. GDP Grew Faster in Q3 2010 / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
Real GDP of the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 2.5% in the third quarter, which is higher than the advance estimate of a 2.0% increase. Upward revisions of consumer spending, equipment and software spending, exports, government spending, and smaller decline in residential investment expenditures more than offset the decline in structural investment expenditures, previously reported to have added to GDP, to result in a higher rate of growth.
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
Fed’s Bearish Outlook Justifies QE2 / Economics / Quantitative Easing
By: Asha_Bangalore
The minutes of the November 2-3 FOMC meeting include forecasts about real GDP, inflation, and employment from members of the FOMC. The main conclusion from the new forecast is that the Fed is less sanguine about the pace of economic activity in the final three months of 2010 and 2011 compared with the previous forecast (see table below). The downward revision of growth and an upward revision of employment entirely justifies the announcement of the second round of quantitative easing of $600 billion.
Tuesday, November 23, 2010
Bernanke vs. Keynes / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Mike_Whitney
Investment drives the economy. It creates jobs, builds factories, develops technology, and stimulates growth. When investment falls, spending slows, unemployment rises, and the economy languishes in persistent stagnation.
Monday, November 22, 2010
After Reflation Comes Hyper-Deflation, a Different Kind of Deflation / Economics / Deflation
By: Clif_Droke
There’s a wealth of wisdom to be found in ancient Chinese proverbs. Not uncommonly one can find answers to the most complex problems today by reading the simple yet elegant epigrams found in any collection of ancient sayings.
One of the themes that runs like a thread in any book of Chinese proverbs is the honor the Chinese confer to the elderly. One such proverb advises anyone who is considering a new venture to “consult at least there older people before proceeding, then you will succeed.” Another one puts it much more succinctly: “The elderly: a national treasure.”
Monday, November 22, 2010
Mike Shedlock's Vacuous Deflation Market Calls Busted / Economics / Deflation
By: Robert_Murphy
Over the last two years, I have gotten perhaps dozens of requests to "deal with" the deflationist approach of Mike "Mish" Shedlock. On his popular financial blog, Mish has been repeatedly patting himself on the back for correctly calling all the major trends in contrast to those economists (like Gary North and I) who naively think Bernanke has the power to raise prices if he so chooses.
Monday, November 22, 2010
U.S. Unemployment to Remain High Through 2011 and Beyond / Economics / US Economy
By: Money_Morning
Don Miller writes:
Stocks are up nearly 70% from their bear market lows. Corporate profits are rising. And the economy is expanding. Yet the unemployment rate continues to hover around 10%.
Neither President Barack Obama's $787 billion stimulus program, nor the U.S. Federal Reserve's quantitative easing has generated enough good news to convince companies to hire meaningful numbers of new workers.
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Monday, November 22, 2010
Ireland Bailout Consequences for Britain, Portugal Next? Stock Market Correction Over? / Economics / Credit Crisis Bailouts
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Ireland's Government drops the mantra of no bailout by finally coming clean to the Irish public that a multi-billion Euro bailout has been agreed ahead of markets opening on Monday. Many Irish citizens will be angry that they have been repeatedly lied to as a series of senior government politician's have stepped forward these past few weeks to make announcements that Ireland was not seeking a bailout when the facts where the complete opposite as an accelerating bank run was under way on Irish banks, with depositors having already pulled out an estimated Euro 25 billion.