The Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) rose 0.5% in October, following an upwardly revised 0.5% gain in September. The June-August readings of the LEI cast a shadow on the nature of the recovery. Moreover, the three-month annualized increase of the LEI, at 4.8%, is the largest increase since June 2010 (see chart 2). The reversal of the 3-month annualized change of the LEI supports predictions of faster economic growth in 2011.

Of the ten components of the index, seven advanced in October - building permits, stock prices, consumer expectations, real money supply, factory workweek, and interest rate spread. Orders of non-defense capital goods and consumer goods are projected to have declined and initial jobless claims made a negative contribution.

Asha Bangalore — Senior Vice President and Economist

http://www.northerntrust.com
Asha Bangalore is Vice President and Economist at The Northern Trust Company, Chicago. Prior to joining the bank in 1994, she was Consultant to savings and loan institutions and commercial banks at Financial & Economic Strategies Corporation, Chicago.

The opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of The Northern Trust Company. The Northern Trust Company does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions.

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