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Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Friday, April 18, 2014

More To U.S. Economic Slowdown Than Weather / Economics / US Economy

By: Sy_Harding

The stock market has hung in there so far this year in spite of negative economic reports from December through February that indicated the economy was slowing significantly.

Not that the market continued its winter rally. For 2014 so far, the Dow is down 0.9%, the S&P 500 is up just 0.6%, and the Nasdaq is down 2.2%.

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Economics

Thursday, April 17, 2014

Economic Outlook Darkens / Economics / Global Economy

By: Alasdair_Macleod

Many decades of Keynesian-inspired economic and monetary corruption have left advanced economies with a legacy of debt and low savings. In a nutshell, that is the problem which is driving us into another financial crisis. That moment could be drawing upon us, signalled by the recent collapse in bond yields.

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Economics

Tuesday, April 15, 2014

Forecasting U.S. GDP Growth: A Look at WSJ Economists’ Collective Crystal Ball / Economics / US Economy

By: PhilStockWorld

Courtesy of Doug Short: One of the big economic numbers this month will be the Q1 Advance Estimate for GDP, due out on April 30th. With this morning’s first glimpse of March Retail Sales now in hand, let’s take a look at Q1 GDP forecasts from the latest Wall street Journal survey of economists conducted earlier this month. For some context, Q4 2013 Real GDP went from 3.2% in the Advance Estimate to 2.4% in the Second Estimate to 2.6% in the Third Estimate. And of course it will be subject to an annual revision in July.

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Economics

Friday, April 11, 2014

Beware Another U.S. Recession is Lurking / Economics / Recession 2014

By: Clif_Droke

The New Economy Index (NEI) is on the brink of sending its first confirmed “sell” signal in four years.

The index is a blend of the leading U.S. retail and business service stocks. NEI is based on the concept that these component stocks are accurate reflections of changes within the real-time U.S. economy (as opposed to the lagging economic statistics favored by the Labor Bureau).

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Economics

Thursday, April 10, 2014

For More Jobs and Stability, Set the Economy Free / Economics / Economic Theory

By: MISES

John P. Cochran writes: The headline in the print edition of theDenver Postof an associated press story on the nominationof Janet Yellen highlights a quote from President Obama, “She understands the human cost when people can’t find a job.” This statement about then-new Fed Chair Yellen, which emphasizes Yellen’s Keynesian-based commitment to the unemployment prong of the Fed’s dual mandate, underlies why some economists feared that no matter how bad policy might have been during Bernanke’s tenure, policy is likely to get worse rather than get better from a sound money perspective during a Yellen reign. Her empathy for the unemployed was clearly present in her remarks following her first official policy meeting which as reported by the Wall Street Journal “were a notable affirmation of her commitment to low rates until the economy is much stronger.” She emphasized, “The recovery still feels like a recession to many Americans, and it also looks that way in some economic statistics.” She then chose to support her remarks not with usual econ jargon and statistics, but“Ms. Yellen instead exhibited a personal touch ... by coloring her comments with experiences of three people who had struggled to gain full-time work.”

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Economics

Thursday, April 10, 2014

Economic Sanctions Not Key Cause of Russia’s Next Recession / Economics / Russia

By: Frank_Shostak

According to commentators, sanctions imposed by the US and the European Union are pushing Russia toward a recession. However, we hold that some key Russian economic data have been displaying a weakening prior to the annexation of the Crimea to Russia. This raises the likelihood that sanctions might not be the key factor for an emerging recession.

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Economics

Thursday, April 10, 2014

Entrepreneurship: The Driving Force of the Economy / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Peter_G_Klein

Author of The Capitalist and the Entrepreneur, Peter Klein has published numerous books and articles on entrepreneurship from an Austrian perspective. Dr. Klein, who is executive director and Carl Menger Research fellow at the Mises Institute, was interviewed in late 2013 by eTalk’s Niaz Uddin on the topic of entrepreneurship:

Niaz Uddin: Tell us about entrepreneurship. What are the different contexts of entrepreneurship?

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Economics

Thursday, April 10, 2014

Europeans Ordered to Start Consuming / Economics / Euro-Zone

By: John_Rubino

For the past couple of years the European Central Bank has been the only sane inmate in the asylum. Unfortunately, in a crazy world being sane just gets you into trouble. Sound monetary policy leads to a strong currency, which in a currency war is tantamount to unilateral disarmament. Unable to export sufficiently to a world of weak currencies, the eurozone is tipping into deflationary depression (with several members already there and unable to get out). So…

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Economics

Tuesday, April 08, 2014

Euro-zone Bazooka - Whatever It Takes 2.0? / Economics / Euro-Zone

By: Axel_Merk

If you are convincingly irrational the market may expect extreme measures and front run your bluff. It’s in this spirit that ECB President Draghi is threatening the market with another bazooka. We discuss implications for investors.

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Economics

Monday, April 07, 2014

Why Keynesian Economists Don’t Understand Inflation / Economics / Inflation

By: Frank_Hollenbeck

The “monetary cranks” and “ignorant zealots” of old are back preaching salvation if only we had more inflation.[1] Keneth Roggoff and Fed President Charles Evans did not mince words, while others have been more circumspect. Christine Lagarde warns us of the “ogre of deflation” and the “risks” of low inflation, while others have been urging easier monetary policy to reduce the value of the yen or the euro. Of course, it’s much easier to let this inflation tiger out of its cage than to get it back in.

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Economics

Sunday, April 06, 2014

We Don’t Need “Animal Spirits” to Understand Economics / Economics / Economic Theory

By: MISES

Per L. Bylund writes: A recently published article at The Week, titled “How can we unleash positive animal spirits into the economy? Change the narrative,” provides a clear example of what’s wrong with the perception of economics and why modern economic approaches, possibly aiming to amend the shortcomings“identified” by this perception, is at a loss of explaining anything important.

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Economics

Sunday, April 06, 2014

Abenomics Stagflation - It's in Shinzo Abe's (Political) Genes / Economics / Stagflation

By: Richard_Mills

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's "Abenomics" goal was to end a long miserable decade and a half of deflation by kick starting the economy. This was going to happen because of massive yen creation. The fiat balloon would induce consumers to spend and corporations to reinvest profits, convinced by a rising stock market and surging exports that all is well.

The Bank of Japan pumped liquidity into the economy at a pace even faster than the U.S. Federal Reserve - $60 billion a month versus $85 billion (the U.S. economy is three times larger than Japan's).

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Economics

Sunday, April 06, 2014

Inflation Hysteria And The Revenge Of Central Banksters / Economics / Inflation

By: Andrew_McKillop

Christine Lagarde Wants “Low-Flation”

Lagarde has been rightly ridiculed and accused of “jabberwockery”, for example by David Stockman who also says that what she calls plain good sense, is “pure Keynesian claptrap”. She opines that one of her sincerest and enduring concerns for the global economy moving forward, is that “low-flation” especially in the Eurozone countries will or might suppress growth and jobs. So of course she is rooting for more Fed-style and ECB-style and BOJ-style, and BOE-style monetary easing. Print and forget!

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Economics

Friday, April 04, 2014

Meet "Lowflation": Deflation's Scary Pal / Economics / Inflation

By: Peter_Schiff

In recent years a good part of the monetary debate has become a simple war of words, with much of the conflict focused on the definition for the word "inflation." Whereas economists up until the 1960's or 1970's mostly defined inflation as an expansion of the money supply, the vast majority now see it as simply rising prices. Since then the "experts" have gone further and devised variations on the word "inflation" (such as "deflation," "disinflation," and "stagflation"). And while past central banking policy usually focused on "inflation fighting," now bankers talk about "inflation ceilings" and more recently "inflation targets". The latest front in this campaign came this week when Bloomberg News unveiled a brand new word: "lowflation" which it defines as a situation where prices are rising, but not fast enough to offer the economic benefits that are apparently delivered by higher inflation. Although the article was printed on April Fool's Day, sadly I do not believe it was meant as a joke.

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Economics

Thursday, April 03, 2014

Deflating the Deflation Myth / Economics / Deflation

By: MISES

Chris Casey writes: The fear of deflation serves as the theoretical justification of every inflationary action taken by the Federal Reserve and central banks around the world. It is why the Federal Reserve targets a price inflation rate of 2 percent, and not 0 percent. It is in large part why the Federal Reserve has more than quadrupled the money supply since August 2008. And it is, remarkably, a great myth, for there is nothing inherently dangerous or damaging about deflation.

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