Analysis Topic: Economic Trends AnalysisThe analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, June 04, 2015
Recent statistics show that the affluent are rapidly slowing in their spending. Economists are surprised, as usual. We’re not. The beauty of demographic trends is that they allow us to see changes in spending well ahead. It’s the single best indicator we have for the economy.
This is even more important in a time when many leading indicators no longer work, thanks to an economy artificially manipulated by quantitative easing. What we know from our research is that the demographic blows have already started to hit us since 2007, but that they’ll get markedly worse through 2020 and 2022.
Wednesday, June 03, 2015
US factory orders tanked again this morning, and were generally reported that way at first. To take just a few of the low-lights:
- Factory orders have declined in eight of the last nine months.
- Orders for transportation equipment fell 2.4 percent while orders for computers and consumer goods-related equipment also fell by varying amounts.
- Last month’s durable goods orders were revised to -0.3% from the original +1%.
- Business inventories remain at near-record high levels.
Monday, June 01, 2015
Mark Thornton writes: We live in a world of massive monetary inflation and extremely low interest rates. Mortgage rates are near historic lows and yet it seems that people cannot get loans. Home sales are up, but with a near record percentage of sales made with cash, rather than a mortgage. The unemployment rate is nearing “full employment” and yet a record number of people do not have jobs.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 28, 2015
A quick review for newer subscribers: In Q1 2013 we noted that the Semiconductor Equipment industry was in “ramp up” mode per a personal source in the industry. After that pivotal period, we have relied on the Semi Equipment ‘book-to-bill’ ratio as a monthly checkup on what is often an important economic leading indicator. The Canary chirped in 2013 and it is still singing a sweet song today.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 28, 2015Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 27, 2015
Former Fed chairman Ben Bernanke will be remembered by future generations as the guy who didn’t see a housing bubble while he was creating it.
That is, unless he says something even dumber, like this:Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 27, 2015
MoneyMorning.com Peter Krauth writes: Debt is the proverbial double-edged sword, offering access to costly assets, but sometimes driving overleveraged borrowers into bankruptcy.
Only politicians and some Keynesian economists could convince themselves – along with a good portion of the masses – that more debt is the solution to the world's already crushing levels.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 27, 2015
The quandary of the economic dilemma continues. A globe suffering from a deflationary financial impact, while consumer prices rise well above the reported cost of living increases, does not bode well that prospects of commercial growth can rescue the world economy. What changes can overcome this predicament? Well, some academic scholar’s offers serious concern that a long term rebound towards prosperity is no longer possible.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 26, 2015
Rodney Johnson writes: I’m not much for glossing over the true state of affairs just to make things look better, which is why I take issue with many government reports.
When it comes to providing clear information on the economy, the U.S. government is more late-night pitchman than serious news anchor. And to make matters worse, many of the numbers they peddle have been “adjusted” so that reports show better results.
Monday, May 25, 2015
Recently, I thought it would be fun to upgrade the turbo charger on my old car. No real good reason, other than it would be free (it was given to me) and interesting. It’s a very light car that feels like a little rocket (when it works)--a guilty pleasure.
One thing I hadn’t anticipated was the need for higher quality intake hoses to manage the extra air flow and exhaust heat. Over and over, I keep blowing hose connections. While the car still drives during periods, there is barely any power at all.
Saturday, May 23, 2015
The rule of law subjects the State to a fixed set of rules that limits the scope of its coercive powers. Individuals and their property are protected from the arbitrary, ad hoc actions of the State and other individuals. In consequence, individuals can plan their activities within the confines of known, fixed “rules of the game.” This allows people to pursue their personal ends, as long as their actions do not infringe on the broadly-defined property rights of their fellow citizens.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 20, 2015
Peter St. Onge writes: One of the more interesting economic debates in the past couple of decades is why the economy is slowing down.
Since 2000, per capita GDP growth in the US has been 0.9 percent per year, compared to 2.3 percent per year in the previous fifty years. This is a big difference: at 2.3 percent growth we double in wealth every generation. At 0.9 percent it takes us close to a century to double. So why the slowdown?Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 20, 2015
UK Deflation Warning - Bank of England Economic Propaganda to Print and Inflate Debt / Economics / Inflation
DEFLATION! The mainstream broadcast press appears to have swallowed the Bank of England's deflation economic propaganda hook line and sinker as they regurgitate the dangers of deflation following release of UK CPI inflation for April of -0.1% prompting headline grabbing warnings of the dangers of falling prices, the dangers of debt not being eroded by inflation, the dangers of people not spending as they wait for prices to fall, the dangers of ... you get the picture as the Bank of England sets the scene for their very own 007 Mark Carney to come to Britain's rescue with his magic PPK INFLATION gun, by promising that the Bank of England will keep price stability by aiming to bring the official CPI inflation rate back to 2%, and thus 007 Mark Carney saves Britain from the Spectre of Deflation.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, May 16, 2015
Last August, the US Fed stopped creating new currency out of thin air and dumping it into the banking system. Which is another way of saying the US money supply stopped growing. Here’s the adjusted monetary base — a proxy for the amount of new currency the Fed is creating — over the past eight months:Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 15, 2015
Chris Casey writes: GDP purports to measure economic activity while largely divorcing itself from the quality, profitability, depth, breadth, improvement, advancement, and rationalization of goods and services provided.
For example, even if a ship — built at great expense — cruised without passengers, fished without success, or ferried without cargo; it nevertheless contributed to GDP. Profitable for investors or stranded in the sand; it added to GDP. Plying the seas or rusting into an orange honeycomb shell; the nation’s GDP grew.1Read full article... Read full article...