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Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Wednesday, June 11, 2014

The US Government Has Nearly As Much Debt As The World Has Wealth / Economics / US Debt

By: Jeff_Berwick

According to a study by the Boston Consulting Group, privately held wealth increased to $152 trillion globally in 2013. 

Compare this to estimates putting the US federal government's total debts and liabilities alone at anywhere from $78 trillion to $200 trillion and you can see just how untenable the US government's debt is. The US government is nearly indebted to the equivalent of all the privately held wealth in the world and possibly more! 

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Economics

Wednesday, June 11, 2014

Debunking The Velocity Myth Once And For All / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Jeff_Berwick

Ed Bugos writes: - “Things are not what they appear to be: nor are they otherwise”

At TDV we demonstrate this truth almost every day – in our blog, our tweets, and in our newsletters.

Just last week Jeff discussed the fallacy of GDP, comparing our lot to that of Jim Carey’s as Truman Burbank, the unaware mark in the Truman Show. In that blog, Jeff discussed one of the main problems with relying on GDP (Gross Domestic Product) as a measure of economic growth.

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Economics

Wednesday, June 11, 2014

Economy - The Better It Looks, The Worse It Gets / Economics / Global Economy

By: Raul_I_Meijer

It’s common knowledge at this point, even if there’s never a shortage of voices who will insist on denying it, that many of the numbers we see allegedly describing our economic realities, are not real at all. Unemployment, GDP, the issue is familiar. And if the US government, or any government for that matter, thinks it’s such a great idea to “massage” their numbers, then to quite an extent those of us who pay attention can shrug them off as largely irrelevant, even if they greatly distort many people’s views of where we find ourselves. The nonsense comes in so fast and furious we need to realize we can’t win ‘em all. But we should never be tempted into thinking much of what we read are anything else than fake, virtual zombie numbers. Still, it’s when fake numbers get real life consequences that we need to raise our voices, even if that’s for the umpteenth time. A report issued yesterday by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) makes for such a moment. Here’s what the BBC had to say:

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Economics

Tuesday, June 10, 2014

U.S. Employment Exceeds Pre-Recession Peak, but Hold the Cheers… / Economics / Employment

By: Money_Morning

Diane Alter writes: The May jobs report had the potential to pass for decent, but then we looked at the labor force participation rate...

Employers added 217,000 jobs in May, leading the labor market to the milestone of recovering all the jobs lost at the depths of the Great Recession. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, remained flat at 6.3%, the U.S. Labor Department reported Friday. Both figures were in line with consensus forecasts of a 220,000 gain and an unchanged rate.

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Economics

Tuesday, June 10, 2014

Orbital Teapot Syndrome And Success-Bias Economics / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Andrew_McKillop

Doctor Les Woodcock Says
The former NASA consultant scientist, Dr Les Woodcock of Manchester University UK says he has had enough of Global Warming hysterics. His argument that an unsubstantiated hypothesis cannot rule supreme in climate science also applies to the flagrant and mindless meddling with  the economy, for example by 'Super' Mario Draghi of the ECB using his Keynesian spin doctors for the chorus line.

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Economics

Tuesday, June 10, 2014

Can China's Central Planners Revive China’s Economic Miracle? / Economics / China Economy

By: John_Mauldin

For years, when asked whether I thought China would experience a hard landing, I would simply answer, “I don't understand China. Making a prediction would be pretending that I did, so I can’t.” The problem is that today China is the most significant macroeconomic wildcard in the global economy. To understand both the risks and the potentials for the future you have to reach some understanding of what is happening in China today. Last week we started a two-part series on what my young associate Worth Wray and I feel is the significant systemic risk that China poses to global growth.

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Economics

Tuesday, June 10, 2014

Conscious Uncouplings - Global Bad Economies / Economics / Global Economy

By: John_Mauldin

By Grant Williams

It is with hearts full of sadness that we have decided to separate. We have been working hard for well over a year, some of it together, some of it separated, to see what might have been possible between us, and we have come to the conclusion that while we love each other very much we will remain separate.

We are, however, and always will be a family, and in many ways we are closer than we have ever been.

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Economics

Tuesday, June 10, 2014

China Economy Leads the World in Green Energy, Gaming and Gambling Markets / Economics / China Economy

By: Frank_Holmes

Last month, Xian Liang, co-portfolio manager of our China Region Fund (USCOX), attended the 19th CLSA China Forum in Beijing. There he and hundreds of other global attendees were given the opportunity to meet with representatives from Chinese corporations, some of which U.S. Global owns. Xian also managed to get a sense of how the nation's recent changes in consumer behavior and governmental policy reforms might affect its investment outlook. Although China remains an emerging market, it has lately taken a number of considerable strides to position itself as one of the world's most attractive places to invest.

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Economics

Monday, June 09, 2014

Geopolitics in Asia with Marc Faber & Understanding GDP Like Never Before / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: Keith_Hilden

In our latest Squawkonomics interview with Marc Faber, we were told a story of a petulant and wincing state carrying a heavy burden and unwilling to release its full spectrum dominance view on its administration of the world in light of a recent economic fallback, a declining economic share of the global economy, and the very stewardship of the global reserve currency being in flux. The story did not have a clear ending, nor did the reign of the world come effortlessly into the hands of newly important states. Nor did it portend the future of frontier markets and developing countries that could very well benefit from a US with a declining share of global GDP. Perhaps overlooking a wide expanse of undeveloped frontier markets, a quote from Dune author Frank Herbert would be best. “There is no real ending. It’s just the place where you stop the story.” Indeed, that however the reserve currency question is answered, and however US economic hegemony looks in 10 or 20 years, there is one inevitable variable that stays constant throughout the geopolitical and economic King of the Hill tug of war between global powers. As two or more tigers duel on a mountain for global financial supremacy, the continued development of the rest of the developing world goes on unabated. That is a guarantee.

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Economics

Monday, June 09, 2014

Economic Doom & Gloom Sells / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: EconMatters

Improving Economic Data

We have noticed that despite an improvement in the economic fundamentals of the United States as per the robust manufacturing numbers, automobile sales data, and upbeat employment numbers in 2014 many go out of their way to find negatives in every economic report instead of focusing on the relativeness of the data. In other words, are we doing better in these areas than two years ago on an “apples to apples comparison” basis?

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Economics

Sunday, June 08, 2014

More Phantom U.S. Jobs Created–All In The Wrong Places / Economics / Employment

By: Paul_Craig_Roberts

Education is not the answer

Last April I saw a report that 83% of May’s college graduates did not have a job. I remarked that in my day most of us had 2 or 3 job or graduate school offers before we graduated. The latest payroll jobs report issued on June 6 proves that the April report was true.

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Economics

Saturday, June 07, 2014

U.S. Civilian Labor Force, Unemployment Claims and Recession Risk / Economics / Employment

By: PhilStockWorld

Courtesy of Doug Short: Every week I post an update on new unemployment claims shortly after the BLS report is made available. My focus is the four-week moving average of this rather volatile indicator. The financial press generally takes a fairly simplistic view of the latest number, and the market often reacts, for a few minutes or a few hours, to the initial estimate, which is always revised the following week.

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Economics

Saturday, June 07, 2014

U.S. Economic Statistics Snow Job / Economics / US Economy

By: Peter_Schiff

Economists, investment analysts, and politicians have spent much of 2014 bemoaning the terrible economic effects of the winter of 2014. The cold and snow have been continuously blamed for the lackluster job market, disappointing retail sales, tepid business investment and, most notably, much slower than expected GDP growth. Given how optimistic many of these forecasters had been in the waning months of 2013, when the stock market was surging into record territory and the Fed had finally declared that the economy had outgrown the need for continued Quantitative Easing, the weather was an absolutely vital alibi. If not for the excuse of the bad weather, the entire narrative of a sustainable recovery would have been proven false.

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Economics

Friday, June 06, 2014

Europe Resorting to Voodoo Economics to Avoid Becoming Japan / Economics / Euro-Zone

By: Money_Morning

Shah Gilani writes: It’s a mixed-up crazy world, especially when it comes to figuring out economics.

Just look at European stock markets. Many of them are making new highs today.

Why is that crazy?

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Economics

Friday, June 06, 2014

Why the Economic Bust Is Inevitable According To the Austrian Business Cycle Theory / Economics / Austrian Economics

By: GoldSilverWorlds

The key of the ABCT is that economies operate in cycles, they go through ‘booms’ and ‘busts’, ‘expansions’ and ‘recessions.’ A ‘crisis’ should not come as a surprise. Austrian School economists argue that central banks don’t help in smoothing the amplitude of the cycles, but are actually the root cause of the business cycle. While some may view that the expansionary monetary policy can mitigate the adverse effects of a crisis, the Austrian School begs to differ.

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