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Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Tuesday, October 13, 2015

The Deteriorating U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: Antonius_Aquinas

Despite doubling the national debt and the expansion of the money supply to some $8 trillion since the beginning of Obummer’s misbegotten presidency, the U.S. economy is once again in a free fall. Actually, there has been no real recovery, but a continual deterioration of living standards despite the lies and distortions from the financial media and government authorities.

Conditions, however, are now descending at an even faster pace.

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Economics

Friday, October 09, 2015

U.S. Can Expect Recession in 1-3 Years / Economics / Recession 2016

By: Bloomberg

David Rubenstein, co-founder and co-CEO at The Carlyle Group, joined hosts Stephanie Ruhle and David Westin on Bloomberg TV's new flagship morning program, Bloomberg <GO>. Rubenstein discussed his call for one or two percent U.S. growth in the next year and explains why the country can expect a recession within the next three years. He also spoke about a transformation taking place in China and unrealistic expectations for 10 percent growth in the nation's economy.

Rubenstein told Bloomberg TV that a U.S. recession is "inevitable." He said "We have not really had a recession in six years.  We came out of the last recession in June of 2009. We tend to have recessions every seven years, more or less in the United States, since World War II.  So at some point in the next year or two or three, you can expect a recession."

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Economics

Friday, October 09, 2015

The Greater Economic Depression Deep State / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Casey_Research

Master speculator and economic expert Doug Casey believes a global financial crisis is just around the corner, which will result in what he has termed the “Greater Depression”...

This essay originally appeared in The Casey Report. In it, Doug details a hidden but powerful force known as the “deep state” that’s ruining the country.

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Economics

Friday, October 09, 2015

Why This Feels Like an Economic Depression for Most People / Economics / Economic Depression

By: James_Quinn

Everyone has seen the pictures of the unemployed waiting in soup lines during the Great Depression. When you try to tell a propaganda believing, willfully ignorant, mainstream media watching, math challenged consumer we are in the midst of a Greater Depression, they act as if you've lost your mind. They will immediately bluster about the 5.1% unemployment rate, record corporate profits, and stock market near all-time highs. The cognitive dissonance of these people is only exceeded by their inability to understand basic mathematical concepts.

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Economics

Wednesday, October 07, 2015

Retirement Fears in China Ageing Economy / Economics / China Economy

By: Rodney_Johnson

The current economic mess in the developed world is easy to explain and hard to fix.

This is a demand-driven downturn, where aging populations choose to save more of what they earn, take on less debt, and generally rotate to a risk-averse world view.

The change isn’t new. It happens to almost all of us as we get older.

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Economics

Wednesday, October 07, 2015

The 5th Convergence…An Economic & Financial Superstorm That Will Devastate America / Economics / Cycles Analysis

By: Harry_Dent

This morning we had to face some hard truths. The economy’s beginning to show its true colors.

Last month the economy added just 142,000 jobs. August was revised substantially lower to just 136,000 jobs. Analysts were expecting 200,000-plus jobs growth like it would go on forever.

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Economics

Tuesday, October 06, 2015

U.S. Economic Recovery Failure to Launch / Economics / US Economy

By: Peter_Schiff

The popular belief that the U.S. economy has been steadily recovering has endured months of disappointing data without losing much of its appeal. A deep bench of excuses, ranging from the weather to the Chinese economy, has been called on to justify why the economy hasn't built up any noticeable steam, and why the Fed has failed to move rates off zero, where they have been for seven years. But the downright dismal September jobs report that was released last Friday may prove to be the flashing red beacon that even the most skilled apologists can't explain away. The report should make it abundantly clear that we are far closer to recession than recovery. But old notions die hard and, shockingly, most economists still believe that we have hit a temporary speed bump not a brick wall. But at some point healthy hope turns into dangerous delusion. We may have just turned that corner.

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Economics

Monday, October 05, 2015

U.S. Recession Watch, High-Yield – Rising Defaults / Economics / Recession 2015

By: John_Mauldin

“Growth is never by mere chance; it is the result of forces working together.”– J.C. Penney

“Strength and growth come only through continuous effort and struggle.”– Napoleon Hill

“We’re lost, but we’re making good time.” – Yogi Berra, 1925-2015, RIP (For a most moving and memory-laden tribute to Yogi, see The Lefsetz Letter.)

The Yogi Berra quote above, which was brought to my attention this week, seems an apt description of where the markets and the economy are today. Nobody is quite sure where we are or where we’re going, but we all seem to think we’re going to get there soon.

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Economics

Friday, October 02, 2015

A Worrying Set Of Recession Signals / Economics / Recession 2015

By: John_Mauldin

By John Mauldin

There is presently a bull market in complacency. There are very few alarm bells going off anywhere; and frankly, in reaction to my own personal complacency, I have my antenna up for whatever it is I might be missing that would indicate an approaching recession.

It was very easy to call the last two recessions well in advance because we had inverted yield curves. In the US at least, that phenomenon has a perfect track record of predicting recessions. The problem now is that, with the Federal Reserve holding the short end of the curve at the zero bound, there is no way we can get an inverted yield curve, come hell or high water. For the record, inverted yield curves do not cause recessions, they simply indicate that something is seriously out of whack with the economy. Typically, a recession shows up three to four quarters later.

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Economics

Friday, October 02, 2015

The Reality Behind the Numbers in China’s Boom-Bust Economy / Economics / China Economy

By: MISES

Yonathan Amselem writes: Last year, the world was stunned by an IMF report which found the Chinese economy larger and more productive than that of the United States, both in terms of raw GDP and purchasing power parity (PPP). The Chinese people created more goods and had more purchasing power with which to obtain them — a classic sign of prosperity. At the same time, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite more than doubled in value since October of 2014. This explosion in growth was accompanied by a post-recession construction boom that rivals anything the world has ever seen. In fact, in the three years from 2011 – 2013, the Chinese economy consumed more cement than the United States had in the entire twentieth century. Across the political spectrum, the narrative for the last fifteen years has been that of a rising Chinese hyperpower to rival American economic and cultural influence around the globe. China’s state-led “red capitalism” was a model to be admired and even emulated.

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Economics

Friday, October 02, 2015

Deflation: It's Been a Stealth Move / Economics / Deflation

By: EWI

Elliott Wave International's European Financial Forecast Editor discusses deflation

In this new interview, Elliott Wave International's Brian Whitmer explains the indirect connection between Europe's volatility and deflation. Find out how Brian's advising his subscribers prepare for deflation.

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Economics

Monday, September 28, 2015

Economic Channels of Distress - Fourth Turning Crisis of Trust / Economics / US Economy

By: James_Quinn

In Part 1 of this article I discussed the catalyst spark which ignited this Fourth Turning and the seemingly delayed regeneracy. In Part 2 I pondered possible Grey Champion prophet generation leaders who could arise during the regeneracy. In Part 3 I will focus on the economic channel of distress which is likely to be the primary driving force in the next phase of this Crisis.

There are very few people left on this earth who lived through the last Fourth Turning (1929 - 1946). The passing of older generations is a key component in the recurring cycles which propel the world through the seemingly chaotic episodes that paint portraits on the canvas of history. The current alignment of generations is driving this Crisis and will continue to give impetus to the future direction of this Fourth Turning. The alignment during a Fourth Turning is always the same: Old Artists (Silent) die, Prophets (Boomers) enter elderhood, Nomads (Gen X) enter midlife, Heroes (Millennials) enter young adulthood -- and a new generation of child Artists (Gen Y) is born. This is an era in which America's institutional life is torn down and rebuilt from the ground up -- always in response to a perceived threat to the nation's very survival.

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Economics

Friday, September 18, 2015

U.S. Economy Future Expectations Made Six Months Ago vs. Today's Reality / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

On Thursday, I noted Bloomberg's comment "Something Very Wrong" with the manufacturing sector.

More completely, Bloomberg stated "There may very well be something wrong with the manufacturing sector, at least in the Northeast where the Empire State index has been in deep negative ground for the last two months followed now by a minus 6.0 headline for the Philly Fed index."

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Economics

Thursday, September 17, 2015

Syria's Economy Not Shaken by ISIS / Economics / Syria

By: Steve_H_Hanke

The fog of war has removed any sense of certainty regarding developments on the Syrian battlefield. That said, we know that ISIS has captured several towns, and that waves of Syrian refugees are disembarking upon Europe's shores. But, the picture remains chaotic and hazy.

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Economics

Tuesday, September 15, 2015

Empire Fed, Retail Sales, Industrial Production All Miss / Economics / US Economy

By: Ashraf_Laidi

A trifecta of misses in today's US economic releases may not be a game-changer in Thursday's Fed decision because the game is already "unchanged". The September Empire Fed survey posted another double digit decline to remain at 6-year lows, August retail sales rose 0.3% to miss expectations for the sixth consecutive month and industrial production fell 0.4% in August to post seven declines over the past eight months--the worst pattern since 2008-9.

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