Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, April 23, 2019
Forecasting 2020s : Two Recessions, Higher Taxes, and Japan-Like Flat Markets / Economics / Recession 2020
By: John_Mauldin
I’m slowly losing confidence in the economy.
I still think the economy is okay for now. But I also see recession odds rising considerably in 2020. Maybe it will get pushed back another year or two, but at some point, this growth phase will end.
It will be either recession or an extended flat period (even flatter than the last decade, which says a lot). On top of that, we are headed toward a global credit crisis I’ve dubbed The Great Reset.
Let me give you the CliffsNotes version of how I think the next decade will play out.
Friday, April 19, 2019
The Global Economy Looks Disturbingly Like Japan Before Its “Lost Decade” / Economics / Global Economy
By: John_Mauldin
After World War II, Japan experienced rapid growth as the US and others helped rebuild its economy. This led to a roaring expansion that culminated in the 1980s Japanese asset bubble.
It popped in the early 1990s bringing what came to be called the “Lost Decade.” It was really more than a decade, as the early 2000s brought only mild recovery.
GDP shrank, wages fell, and asset prices dropped or went sideways at best. Japan is still grappling with it today.
Now the rest of the world is approaching a period that may be an equivalent of Japan’s “Lost Decade.” It won’t be the end of the world, but it might be more painful than in Japan.
Tuesday, April 16, 2019
Even the President is Terrified of the Dreaded “D” Word Deflation / Economics / Deflation
By: Graham_Summers
The following tweet tells you everything you need to know about the state of the US financial system today…
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Sunday, April 14, 2019
From US-Sino Talks to New Trade Wars, Weakening Global Economic Prospects / Economics / Protectionism
By: Dan_Steinbock
Recently, IMF cut global growth forecasts. As US-Sino trade talks will give way to next trade wars, new tariff wars will not resolve US deficits but will further impair global economic prospects.Ever since the US-Sino trade talks began almost four months ago, the United States has pushed for a broad commitment focusing on China’s economic practices, including participation of U.S. firms in certain industries and protection of U.S. intellectual property rights (IPRs).
In a recent CNBC interview, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin claimed that the countries had “pretty much agreed” on an enforcement mechanism for a trade deal. After his meeting with the Chinese delegation last week, President Trump stated that negotiators may need four more weeks to package the deal.
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Friday, April 12, 2019
America Has a Monopoly Problem / Economics / Economic Theory
By: John_Mauldin
Without realizing it, we’ve become a nation of monopolies. A large and growing part of our economy is “owned” by a handful of companies that face little competition.They have no incentive to deliver better products or to get more efficient. They simply rake in cash from people who have no choice but to hand it over.
This would be impossible if we had true capitalism.
Even if we admit some businesses are natural monopolies, most aren’t. Most of them found some non-capitalistic flaw to exploit.
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Tuesday, April 09, 2019
A Recession is Coming… But Not Just Yet / Economics / Recession 2019
By: Harry_Dent
In the last week, there have been a slew of articles warning that we’re on the verge of a recession.
The most prominent is talk about the yield curve – the 10-year versus the three-month Treasurys – finally inverting. That has led every recession since 1955, and only gave one false signal in the 1960s.
I agree. This is something to worry about. But, this signal typically appears about a year before any recession hits. That means stocks could run up another six to nine months before they react. That’s all we need for my Dark Window blow-off rally scenario.
Friday, April 05, 2019
A Big Advantage: Knowing Where You Are In The Economic Cycle / Economics / Recession 2019
By: John_Mauldin
By Eric Basmajian : Geoffrey Moore, the father of leading indicators, once said that it is a big advantage just to know where you are in the economic cycle, let alone trying to forecast where it is going.
Most investors or analysts don't have a concrete way to define where we are in the cycle and use common but silly analogies to the inning of a baseball game to identify the current standing of the economy. I have even heard some analysts describe the economic cycle as being in "extra-innings." I understand this mentality but chuckle at the framework as it has become such a consensus saying that all media pundits seem to have an answer as to the inning of the game.
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Thursday, March 28, 2019
What US Economic Fundementals and Valuations Say For Stock Market Trend 2019 / Economics / US Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
FUNDAMENTALS
US Economy
The US economic fundamentals are good as real GDP is rising at an annualised rate of 3.1%, up from +2,5% a year earlier. Whilst not a boom is definitely not deflationary so supportive for stock prices as the economy continues to chug along.
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Thursday, March 28, 2019
Fed Inflation Is Losing Its Intended Effect / Economics / Inflation
By: Kelsey_Williams
The chart below shows the ratio of the gold price to the monetary base for the past one hundred years. The monetary base used in the chart is calculated by the St. Louis Federal Reserve and the following definition is from their website:
“The Adjusted Monetary Base is the sum of currency (including coin) in circulation outside Federal Reserve Banks and the U.S. Treasury, plus deposits held by depository institutions at Federal Reserve Banks. These data are adjusted for the effects of changes in statutory reserve requirements on the quantity of base money held by depositories.” (source)
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Wednesday, March 27, 2019
The Fed Broke This Economic Cycle—and It’s a Game Changer for Investors / Economics / Economic Theory
By: John_Mauldin
Here’s a quote from my friend Peter Boockvar that has drawn an enormous amount of interest:“We no longer have business cycles, we have credit cycles.”
Let’s cut that small but meaty sound bite into pieces. What do we mean by “business cycle,” exactly? Well, it looks something like this.
A growing economy peaks, contracts to a trough (what we call “recession”), recovers to enter prosperity, and hits a higher peak. Then the process repeats.
Wednesday, March 20, 2019
Asset Bubbles and the Economy Are Now One / Economics / Liquidity Bubble
By: Michael_Pento
After this latest round of a deflationary recession/depression consummates, global central banks and governments will engage in an epoch battle to re-inflate asset prices such as never before contemplated. Indeed, they are laying the framework for that assault right now.
Global central banks took interest rates to the zero percent range a decade ago and, for the most part, they remain there today. These confetti pushers printed $15 trillion dollars in order to push rates into history’s basement. Such an enterprise in counterfeiting has never been attempted before outside of a banana republic.
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Wednesday, March 20, 2019
Monetary Metals on Keynes, Inflation and Evil Itself / Economics / Inflation
By: Gary_Tanashian
Since NFTRH 543 was also known as the ‘What if… Inflation?’ report, I was attuned to the subject; and on cue here comes Keith Weiner with a knockout punch.
Keynes Was a Vicious Bastard, Report
He goes off on the evil (and I do mean evil) genius, John Maynard Keynes before moving on to his usual gold and silver supply/demand fundamental report.
Read full article... Read full article...He gave us the recipe for “overturning the existing basis of society.” All you have to do is “a continuing process of inflation,” which will “confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens.” This “brings windfalls, beyond their deserts and even beyond their expectations or desires” to the “profiteers, who are the object of the hatred of the bourgeoisie, whom the inflationism has impoverished, not less than of the proletariat.” Finally, this process “engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.”
Tuesday, March 19, 2019
Looking at the Economic Winter Season Ahead / Economics / Recession 2019
By: Harry_Dent
Last Friday I talked about how we have been in a muted Economic Winter Season. We may have had the greatest stock market bubble ever, but our economic “recovery” has been the weakest on record, despite the strongest, globally-concerted stimulus ever.Here’s a chart comparing the real GDP for the 11 years from the 1929 top through the 1940 bottom to the 11 years from 2007 to 2018.
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Thursday, March 14, 2019
Britain's Demographic Time Bomb Has Gone Off! / Economics / Demographics
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Britain's Demographic Time Bomb Has Gone Off!
This is the next analysis in a series that aims to conclude in a new multi-year trend forecast for UK house prices, this analysis takes a look at the impact of Demographics on the probable house prices trend over the next few years. But first a recap of my analysis to date that so far suggests to ignore mainstream press hysteria that warns of impending doom for Britains housing market, encouraged no less than the Government and Bank of England which warn to expect a 30% CRASH in UK house prices should the UK LEAVE the EU without a deal.
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Thursday, March 14, 2019
2019 Economic Predictions / Economics / Global Economy
By: Boris_Dzhingarov
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Wednesday, March 13, 2019
TSP Recession Indicator - Criss-Cross, Flip-Flop and Remembering 1966 / Economics / Recession 2019
By: F_F_Wiley
In November, we argued that the business cycle rests heavily on a certain type of incremental spending—namely, spending that doesn’t require prior savings. We used the term thin-air spending power (TSP) to describe spending that’s financed by external “injections” instead of prior savings.
As part of our argument, we shared the chart below, which compares TSP-derived spending on the left (financed by fresh bank credit) to spending that merely recycles savings, such as the prior domestic savings category on the right.
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Tuesday, March 12, 2019
Next Recession: Concentrating Future Losses & Bringing Them Forward In Time As Profits / Economics / Recession
By: Dan_Amerman
If there is another recession in the next 1-2 years, then the Fed is highly likely to respond by swiftly moving Fed Funds rates back down to zero percent.
One likely result is that millions of investors will lose 83% or more of their future income over a period of years.
The money won't all actually be lost, however. Instead, much of it will be brought forward in time and passed through to a different group of investors as profits - in concentrated form.
In this analysis, we will focus on understanding how an unintentional - but necessary - byproduct of the Fed's dilemma and known plans when we enter the next recession, will be to strip wealth from some investors, and to bring that wealth forward in time to be "caught" by other investors.
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Tuesday, March 12, 2019
The Shift of the Philippine Peso Regime / Economics / Phillippines
By: Dan_Steinbock
In the Aquino era, the focus was on financial flows, which rested on a strong peso. In the Duterte era, it is on the huge investment drive, which can live with a weaker currency. The peso’s political economy is shifting.Recently, international media have released contradictory peso reports. But the phenomenon is not new. For instance, Bloomberg’s Ditas Lopez first attributed the peso’s decline to Duterte two months before the actual election (April 27, 2016). Yet, after the election, the peso rose for weeks beating forecasts so that by late August 2016 even Bloomberg had to admit that he currency had completed the “best performance in Asia this month.”
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Sunday, March 10, 2019
US Retail Sales Panic Data Could Be Just a Glitch / Economics / Retail Sector
By: John_Mauldin
Recession antennae popped up everywhere on February 14.
The Commerce Department reported retail sales fell 1.2% in December. It was the worst month-over-month decline since 2009:
Friday, March 08, 2019
Is Recession Near? / Economics / Recession 2019
By: John_Mauldin
I trust Dave Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff. He’s been a perpetual speaker at my SIC conference for at least 10 years.
Dave is screaming recession every chance he gets, but he is not a perma-bear by any means.
He’s been bullish at the right times in the past. Dave turned uber-bullish 9 or 10 years ago. It was way outside the consensus at the time, but he has never cared much about being part of the consensus.
So while I don’t entirely agree with him this time, I pay attention.