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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Saturday, April 23, 2011

The Deflation Threat is Still Alive, Here's Why / Economics / Deflation

By: EWI

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article

"Every excess causes a defect; every defect an excess. Every sweet hath its sour...The waves of the sea do not more speedily seek a level from their loftiest tossing, than the varieties of condition tend to equalize themselves."

This quote comes from Ralph Waldo Emerson's essay, "Compensation." He opens the essay with a poem which includes these two lines:

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Economics

Friday, April 22, 2011

Whiff of Decelerating Trend in Second Tier U.S. Economic Reports / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe March employment report, including a 8.8% unemployment rate and a gain of 230,000 private sector jobs, set a bullish tone early in the month, but today's reports are sending a different message.  Initial jobless claims fell 13,000 to 403,000 during the week ended April 16.  The four-week moving average at 399,000 has moved up 391,000 posted four weeks ago. 

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Economics

Thursday, April 21, 2011

Fear the Economic Boom, Not the Bust / Economics / Economic Theory

By: MISES

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticlePatrick Barron writes: All of the industrial world's central banks and public treasuries currently are engaged in an impossible exercise — trying to reinflate an artificially created boom through zero interest rates and deficit spending. The reality is that the current financial crisis was caused by central-bank money expansion, so it cannot be cured by further money expansion. It is as if a doctor is continuing to bleed a patient who is already bleeding to death.

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Economics

Thursday, April 21, 2011

Slowing U.S. Economic Recovery Faces Strong Headwinds in 2011 / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleKerri Shannon writes: The U.S. economic recovery has been heading upward, but high unemployment and rising energy prices will weigh heavily on consumers and slow U.S. growth.

Many economists don't think the U.S. economy will maintain the 3.1% growth rate it established in 2010's fourth quarter. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says that while global growth this year will continue at a rate of 4.8%, advanced regions like the United States will grow at a slower rate than emerging economies.

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Economics

Tuesday, April 19, 2011

Is Deflation Still a Threat, the Deflation Survival Guide" Gives the Answer / Economics / Deflation

By: EWI

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article

"Every excess causes a defect; every defect an excess. Every sweet hath its sour...The waves of the sea do not more speedily seek a level from their loftiest tossing, than the varieties of condition tend to equalize themselves."

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Economics

Tuesday, April 19, 2011

Will China’s Economy Overheat? / Economics / China Economy

By: Frank_Holmes

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleChina’s GDP growth continued at a blistering pace during the first quarter of 2011, rising 9.7 percent from the previous year, according to economic data released today from the People’s Bank of China. Once again this outpaced many forecasts—even that of the Chinese government—and reignited the discussion of China’s overheating economy. While its robust growth may raise a few eyebrows, the economy isn’t in danger of “red-lining.”

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Economics

Monday, April 18, 2011

Inflation Destroys Real Wages / Economics / Inflation

By: Michael_Pento

In the same vein as medieval physicians believed bloodletting would cure illness, modern snake-oil economists still perilously cling to their claim that rising wages and salaries are the cause of inflation. With my recent debates with these mainstream economists, I've heard the following: "without rising wages, where does the money come from to push prices higher?" I was tempted to respond, "where do the employers get the money to pay those higher wages?" But economists tend to get a little nasty when you make them feel stupid.

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Economics

Monday, April 18, 2011

Japan, the Forgotten Protectionist Threat / Economics / Protectionism

By: Ian_Fletcher

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleEveryone's worried about China today on the trade front. And they should be.

But let's not forget that China is only the most brazen player of one-way free trade out there. We ran a $273 billion deficit with China in 2010, but we also ran an $80 billion deficit with the European Union and a $60 billion deficit with Japan.

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Economics

Sunday, April 17, 2011

Inflation Versus Hyperinflation, The Crucial Difference / Economics / Inflation

By: Justice_Litle

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIs it possible we will see hyperinflation in the United States? Yes, but not by the route you might think...

"Hyperinflation." You've heard the word. You may have talked about it on the golf course or at the dinner table. (Or even in the grocery store.)

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Economics

Sunday, April 17, 2011

Spiralling Public Debt and Economic Stagnation in the European Union / Economics / Euro-Zone

By: Bob_Chapman

Europe continues to struggle from one problem to another. The euro has been strong only because the dollar has been weak. The governments of Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain continue their balancing acts on the edge of a financial precipice. All have Socialist governments, which have done terrible jobs, but the opposition is not much better. Each economy is in serious trouble and if Italy and Belgium follow it will take $4 trillion to bail them out. If the solvent EU members bail them out they’ll fail as well. Americans and Brits can look down their noses, but their problems are just as bad if not worse. They all have practiced different versions of Keynesian economics that has been disastrous. Their fiscal and monetary policies have been and continue to be out of control, as corruption abounds. The solutions are unpalatable, especially for politicians, because they all spell austerity. We have just seen the European Central Bank raise interest rates as euro zone economies slow, as they hope to arrest 2.8% official inflation. Real inflation is double that number.

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Economics

Saturday, April 16, 2011

Deflation, Hyperinflation and Stagflation, Where Do We Stand? / Economics / Fiat Currency

By: Jesse

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWell, the good news for everyone is that nothing seems inevitable here, that there is almost always a choice, but it is often wrapped up in a nice looking rationale, with all the compulsion of a necessity, for the good of the people. Us versus them in a battle for survival and all that. And clever leaders on the extremes provide the 'them' to be dehumanized and objectified. The leftist wishes to murder the bankers, and the fascist the lower classes and outsiders. The extremes of both end up making life miserable for almost everybody except for a privileged few.

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Economics

Saturday, April 16, 2011

U.S. Accelerating Inflation Mega-Trend Whilst Deflationists Continue to Reinvent a History of Worthless Deflation Forecasts / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleU.S. CPI Inflation surged higher during March by rising to 2.7% from 2.1% the month before, completely catching the mainstream financial press off guard that continues to take its cues from the Fed central bank deflation propaganda as part of its strategy for massaging the general populations inflation expectations and enabling it to print money aka Quantitative Easing, aided by academics who are paid to follow a school of thought rather than think independently and without any monetary consequences of being wrong which is then further regurgitated at length by salesmen and the BlogosFear.

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Economics

Saturday, April 16, 2011

U.S. Slip-sliding into Recession / Economics / Double Dip Recession

By: Mike_Whitney

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn June, the Fed's bond buying binge (QE2) will end and the economy will have to muddle through on its own. And, that's going to be tough-sledding, because QE2 provided a $600 billion drip-feed to ailing markets which helped to lift the S&P 500 12% from the time the program kicked off in November 2010. Absent the additional monetary easing, the big banks and brokerages will have to rely on low interest rates alone while facing a chilly investment climate where belt-tightening and hairshirts are all-the-rage and where consumers are still licking their wounds from the Great Recession. None of this bodes well for the markets or for the millions of jobless workers who continue to fall off the unemployment rolls only to find that the social safety net has been sold to pay off the mushrooming budget deficits.

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Economics

Saturday, April 16, 2011

U.S. Factory Production Strong in March and the First Quarter / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIndustrial production rose 0.8% during March, following more muted gains of 0.1% in each of the prior two months.  Factory production, which excludes output of the nation's utilities and mining sector, advanced 0.7% in March, following impressive gains of 0.8% and 0.6% in January and February, respectively.  As a result of these strong monthly increases, factory production in the first quarter of 2011 moved up at an annual rate of 9.2%, the largest increase since 1997 (see Chart 4). 

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Economics

Saturday, April 16, 2011

U.S. March Consumer Price Index, Fed Finds Itself Between a Rock and a Hard Place / Economics / Inflation

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.5% in March, following a similar increase in February.  The 3.5% increase of the energy price index and the 0.8% jump in food prices made up three quarters of the overall increase of the CPI in March.  On a year-to-year basis, the CPI has risen 2.7% in March, putting the three-month annualized gain at 6.1%.  The core CPI, which excludes food and energy rose 0.1% in March, which yields a three-month annualized increase of 2.0%.  The acceleration of these inflation measures in a short time period is noteworthy (see Chart 1). 

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Economics

Friday, April 15, 2011

The Myth of Japan's Economic Depression Lost Decades / Economics / Japan Economy

By: Kel_Kelly

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe earthquake, tsunami, and lingering nuclear crisis in Japan have devastated that country's people and their place in the global economy. Can the island nation recover? To see where Japan might go next, we have to look at one of the persistent myths about its recent past — the myth of the lost decades.

It is widely thought that Japan is in the 21st year of a recession, or at least of a muddle-through sluggish economy. Part of this poor performance, economists and the financial press habitually state, is that Japan has experienced a terrible deflation. Nevertheless, I claim that Japan's economic state for the past two decades, up until the recent disasters, has in fact been comparable to that of most developed nations.

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Economics

Friday, April 15, 2011

Energy and Car Prices Lift U.S. Wholesale Price Index in March / Economics / Inflation

By: Asha_Bangalore

The Producer Price Index (PPI) of Finished Goods rose 0.7% in March following a 1.6% gain in the prior month.  A higher energy price index (+2.6%) and a jump in prices of new light motor trucks (+0.7%) were the main drivers of the overall PPI in March.  The 5.7% increase in gasoline prices and 2.7% gain in heating oil stand out among the price gains reported in the March wholesale price report.  According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, over 90% of the increase in the wholesale price index is attributed to the higher energy price index.  The 0.2% drop in food prices helped to trim the overall advance of wholesale prices and recorded the first decline in food prices since August 2010.

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Economics

Friday, April 15, 2011

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Surprise Jump / Economics / Unemployment

By: Asha_Bangalore

Initial jobless claims rose 27,000 to 412,000 during the week ended April 9.  It is surprising given that initial jobless have been trending down and holding below 400,000 for four straight weeks. 

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Economics

Thursday, April 14, 2011

Recession by End of Year? / Economics / Double Dip Recession

By: Mike_Shedlock

John Taylor, CEO of FX Concepts, a currency trading firm with $8 billion under management says "We'll be in a recession by the end of the year. Three reasons: QE2 will end, Republicans are running the House, and the price of gas is heading up."

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Economics

Thursday, April 14, 2011

Fed’s Exit Doors Close: Inflationary Spiral Ahead / Economics / Inflation

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

The pressure for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to put a damper on inflation is growing strong.  This week, Reuters reported that Bill Gross’s PIMCO Total Return Fund, the largest mutual fund in the world, had reduced its US Treasury holdings to zero, and then followed the sale with a short-position, signaling to the market that holding US debt is not only risky, but also an entry into an asset class that provides a negative return when adjusted for inflation.

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