Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stocks, Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Breaking Bad on Donald Trump Pump - 21st Nov 24
Gold Price To Re-Test $2,700 - 21st Nov 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: This Is My Strong Warning To You - 21st Nov 24
Financial Crisis 2025 - This is Going to Shock People! - 21st Nov 24
Dubai Deluge - AI Tech Stocks Earnings Correction Opportunities - 18th Nov 24
Why President Trump Has NO Real Power - Deep State Military Industrial Complex - 8th Nov 24
Social Grant Increases and Serge Belamant Amid South Africa's New Political Landscape - 8th Nov 24
Is Forex Worth It? - 8th Nov 24
Nvidia Numero Uno in Count Down to President Donald Pump Election Victory - 5th Nov 24
Trump or Harris - Who Wins US Presidential Election 2024 Forecast Prediction - 5th Nov 24
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Likely Economic Export Shocks From Europe

Economics / Global Economy Nov 10, 2011 - 05:03 AM GMT

By: Asha_Bangalore

Economics

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe European Central Bank (ECB) lowered the policy rate 25 bps to 1.25% on November 3, 2011. The possibility of a mild recession was cited as the reason for monetary policy easing. By implication, the recession should translate into fewer exports of the U.S. to Euroland. The share of US exports to the European Union (all 25 member nations) has dropped to 17.7% in August 2011 from a peak of 23.2% in February 2009.


The share of exports to the Euro Area (Austria, Belgium, France, Finland, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, and Spain) shows a decline to 13% from 17.3% in the same period. These shares should post a further reduction as Europe experiences a mild recession in the months ahead.

Trade flows related to Euroland are not the sole headwind to US growth in the quarters ahead. Year-to-date, the share of exports to the Pacific Rim, of which China is a big player, has slowed by nearly three percentage points after an impressive performance in 2010 (see Chart 2). By contrast, the share of South/Central America shows a small increase in 2011(see Chart 2).

If the recent deceleration of business activity in China, compared with 2010, is not reversed rapidly (see Chart 3), it could reduce exports of the US to not only China but also to other trading partners of the US. The trade linkages of the global economy work as follows: If Chinese imports post a reduction in the quarters ahead as a result of smaller gain in overall GDP of China compared with 2010, it means that exports of all its trading partners are adversely affected. This in turn translates into lower growth in these countries and a reduction of their imports, which are partly exports of the US. Therefore, the performance of the Chinese economy has ripple effects that will be critical to global economic growth in 2012.

Real exports of the U.S. fell 9.4% in 2009, the largest drop in the past fifty years (see Chart 4). The expectation is that the setback to US exports, if Euroland experiences a recession and growth in China is sub-par, should be smaller than the drop in 2009, but a hit to GDP and employment, nevertheless.

The opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of The Northern Trust Company. The Northern Trust Company does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions.
© 2011 Northern Trust Corporation

Asha Bangalore — Senior Vice President and Economist

http://www.northerntrust.com

Asha Bangalore is Vice President and Economist at The Northern Trust Company, Chicago. Prior to joining the bank in 1994, she was Consultant to savings and loan institutions and commercial banks at Financial & Economic Strategies Corporation, Chicago.

Copyright © 2011 Asha Bangalore

The opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of The Northern Trust Company. The Northern Trust Company does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in