Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stocks, Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Breaking Bad on Donald Trump Pump - 21st Nov 24
Gold Price To Re-Test $2,700 - 21st Nov 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: This Is My Strong Warning To You - 21st Nov 24
Financial Crisis 2025 - This is Going to Shock People! - 21st Nov 24
Dubai Deluge - AI Tech Stocks Earnings Correction Opportunities - 18th Nov 24
Why President Trump Has NO Real Power - Deep State Military Industrial Complex - 8th Nov 24
Social Grant Increases and Serge Belamant Amid South Africa's New Political Landscape - 8th Nov 24
Is Forex Worth It? - 8th Nov 24
Nvidia Numero Uno in Count Down to President Donald Pump Election Victory - 5th Nov 24
Trump or Harris - Who Wins US Presidential Election 2024 Forecast Prediction - 5th Nov 24
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

U.S. Unemployment Drops as Employment Reports Widespread Gains, Allows Fed Breathing Space

Economics / Employment Jan 07, 2012 - 07:04 AM GMT

By: Asha_Bangalore

Economics

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleCivilian Unemployment Rate: 8.5% in December, down from 8.7% in November. Cycle high jobless rate for the recent recession is 10.0% in October 2009.
Payroll Employment: +200,000 jobs in December vs. +100,000 in November. Private sector jobs increased 212,000 after a gain of 120,000 in November. A net loss of 8,000 jobs followed after revisions to payroll estimates of October and November.
Private Sector Hourly Earnings: $23.24 in December vs. $23.20 in November; 2.1% y-o-y increase in December vs. 1.9% gain in November.


Table 1 - 01 06 2012

Household Survey – The civilian unemployment rate edged down to 8.5% in December from a revised 8.7% reading in the prior month. The unemployment rate has declined almost one percentage point from the year ago mark of 9.4%. The broad measure of unemployment, which is a sum of the officially unemployed plus those working part-time because they cannot find full-time jobs and those who want to work but have not looked for a job in the past year, fell to 15.2% in December from 15.6% in November; it is down sharply from a 16.6% reading in December 2010. The number of people working part-time because they cannot find full-time employment dropped to 8.428 million in December from 9.205 million a year ago.

Chart 1 - 01 06 2012

Establishment Survey – Nonfarm payrolls increased 200,000 in December, following a revised gain of 100,000 in November. There was a net loss of 8,000 jobs after revisions to earlier estimates of payroll employment in October and November.

Chart 2 - 01 06 2012


During the twelve months ended December a total of 1.64 million jobs has been created vs. a gain of 940,000 jobs in all of 2010. Private sector employment has advanced by 1.92 million over the past twelve months, while government employment fell 280,000 during the same period.


Chart 3 - 01 06 2012

The diffusion indexes for private sector employment (61.2%) and factory employment (56.8%) indicate that hiring gains were widespread in December and the strongest since April 2011 (see Chart 4).


Chart 4 - 01 06 2012


Highlights of changes in payrolls during December 2011:

Construction: +17,000 vs. -12,000 in November
Manufacturing: +23,000 vs. +1,000 in November
Private sector service employment: +164,000 vs. +126,000 in November
Retail employment: +39,000 vs. +28,000 in November
Professional and business services: +12,000 vs. +19,000 in November
Temporary help: -7,500 vs. +11,200 in November
Financial activities: +2,000 vs. +5,000 in November
Health care: +22,600 vs. +16,000 in November
Government: -12,000 vs. -20,000 in November

The 0.5% jump in manufacturing man-hours index in December bodes positively for industrial production. Hourly earnings rose 0.2% to $23.24 in December, putting the year-to-year increase at 2.1%. The gain in employment and earnings points to a more than moderate increase in personal income during December. The 0.5% increase in the total man-hours index in December puts the quarterly annualized increase at 3.2%, which is consistent with our 3.4% increase in real GDP during the fourth quarter of 2011.

Conclusion – The positive tone of the string of economic data in the first week of the month – ISM manufacturing survey (53.9 vs. 52.7 in November), auto sales (13.48 million in Q4 vs. 12.48 million in Q3, albeit a small decline was recorded in December), and the December employment numbers -- suggest that the Fed has the luxury to watch and wait. In addition, the moderating trend of inflation (see Chart 5) gives the Fed latitude to ease monetary policy if economic activity shows signs of fading in the months ahead.

Chart 5 - 01 06 2012Table 2 - 01 06 2012

Asha Bangalore — Senior Vice President and Economist

http://www.northerntrust.com

Asha Bangalore is Vice President and Economist at The Northern Trust Company, Chicago. Prior to joining the bank in 1994, she was Consultant to savings and loan institutions and commercial banks at Financial & Economic Strategies Corporation, Chicago.

Copyright © 2011 Asha Bangalore

The opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of The Northern Trust Company. The Northern Trust Company does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisio


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

James Ginn
07 Jan 12, 18:34
What Unemployment ?

Don't get excited... as this is just a peak on a 4 year cycle.


John S. Churchin
15 Jan 12, 06:55
Wait until next month.

Officially 8 million americans will give up looking for work and unemployment will fall to 4.5%.

Asha will have an orgasam and proclaim the Economy has completed it's recovery.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in