Sunday, April 01, 2018

The S&P Stocks Index Will Probably Breakdown Below its 200 SMA / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

The S&P 500 is hovering just above its 200 day moving average right now.

When the S&P 500 flirts with its 200 sma but doesn’t break below it, it usually breaks below this moving average soon. This is a short term bearish sign for the stock market but has no medium-long term implications. The 200sma becomes a magnet for the S&P in the short term.

Saturday, March 31, 2018

It’s Not Yet Time for Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Last week we noted that Gold’s quarterly close would be a key marker for Gold’s immediate breakout potential. Gold was seemingly on course for its highest quarterly close since 2012 until it reversed back below quarterly resistance at $1330/oz. Hence, an imminent break to the upside is unlikely and gold watchers will have to remain patient. It’s not yet Gold’s time. It will be soon enough.

One catalyst for the most recent strength in Gold (the correction in equities) appears to have faded as the S&P 500 has held its 200-day moving average. A sustained rebound in equities while bond yields correct would not be particularly bullish for Gold. The obvious reason is capital is flowing into equities and not Gold. A rebound in equities amid a temporary reduction in inflation expectations would equate to stable or rising real yields.

Saturday, March 31, 2018

Warning Economic Implosion on the Horizon / Economics / Economic Depression

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our previous three segments of this research report detailed not only the history of the Chinese economic activity but also detailed some of the capital flow issues that have been active in presenting this unique instance in time as it relates to a potential implosion of economic activity in China and most of Asia.  We, the research team at Technical Traders Ltd., have attempted to clearly illustrate all of the components and facets that have existed to make up a very unique scenario where traders may be able to experience a once or twice in a lifetime trade that could result in massive returns.

Within our previous posts, we attempted to disclose what we believe to be one of the most critical and potentially damaging economic events in our future.  We urge all readers to review (Part I, Part II, Part III) of this multi-part research report to bring everyone up to speed with our thinking.  Please take a moment to our earlier posts before continuing.

Saturday, March 31, 2018

Warning China / Asia Economic Implosion on the Horizon? / Economics / China Economy

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Thank you for following our multi-part research (Part I, Part II) into the possibility of a China/Asia market collapse and our hypothetical analysis of what that event might consist of and how it may play out.  So far, we have discussed the Chinese housing market rotation as well as the recent trends within the past 7+ years, expansion and foreign investments made by many Chinese and successful Asian investors.  All of this research raises some interesting questions for us to consider.

Saturday, March 31, 2018

Central Planners Hiding Inflation, Imposing Negative Real Interest Rates / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: MoneyMetals

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.

Coming up we’ll hear from Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors. We’ll ask Frank about his outlook on gold during the remainder of 2018 and he’ll also tell us why we should be very leery of taking any financial advice from newly appointed Trump advisor Larry Kudlow. Don’t miss my conversation with Frank Holmes, coming up after this week’s market update.

As the first quarter of 2018 comes to an end, the gold market finds itself trading fairly close to where it began the year. Every time gold looks like it’s on the verge of breaking out, it gets pushed back into a stubbornly persistent trading range.

Saturday, March 31, 2018

Warning Doritos Crisps Voucher Wins Are Near Useless at Tesco Supermarkets / ConsumerWatch / Freebies and Comps

By: N_Walayat

The Doritos instant win promotion that began Mid February and due to end Mid April has proved to have a high probability for a win that we currently estimate at 40%, i.e. 4 out of every 10 packets will be a winner! Just enter the code on the back of the Doritos packets at the website and you will instantly know if you have won cash from £5 to £500 or a print at home voucher for free packet of Doritos which is what you are most likely to win.

Friday, March 30, 2018

Silver Mining Stocks SIL ETF Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Zeal_LLC

The silver miners’ stocks have really languished since mid-2016, relentlessly grinding sideways to lower.  With gold out of favor, silver and its miners have largely been left for dead and forgotten.  This sector is deeply mired in universal apathy and bearishness.  But since silver stocks can skyrocket when silver decisively rallies again, it’s important to keep an eye on silver miners’ fundamentals like their recent Q4’17 results.

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports.  Required by securities regulators, these quarterly results are exceedingly important for investors and speculators.  They dispel all the sentimental distortions surrounding prevailing stock-price levels, revealing the underlying hard fundamental realities.  They serve to re-anchor perceptions.

Friday, March 30, 2018

High Volatility is Bullish for the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

The U.S. stock market’s recent volatility has been very high. We demonstrated in this study that high volatility is a short term bearish sign but a medium term bullish sign for the stock market. Here’s another way of looking at it.

The S&P experienced 4 consecutive days of >1.5% movements (CLOSE vs. CLOSE $) from March 22 – 27, 2018. Some traders think that such high volatility is “bear market behavior”. I disagree.

Friday, March 30, 2018

Kit Kat's Have a BREAK 'Joe the Mug' Promotion / ConsumerWatch / Freebies and Comps

By: Anika_Walayat

Kit Kat are literally giving away 50,000 'Joe the Mugs' in an easy to win promotion until the 31st of August 2018. However, some lucky customers are apparenrtlt beign sent special edition 'puzzle' Joe the Mugs. So as kit-kat would say have a break Joe the Mug!

Thursday, March 29, 2018

Location, Location and Nerve Agents - The Skripals Poisening Saga / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: Raul_I_Meijer

I am gullible. Very. I betcha I am more gullible than you. And that tells you something, because you know how gullible you are. Or so you think. Still, as bad as I got it, something physically snapped in the back of my head this morning, I could hear it snap, when I saw this Guardian headline:

Skripals Poisoned From Front Door Of Salisbury Home, Police Say

Detectives investigating the attempted murders of Russian double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia Skripal have said they believe the pair were poisoned with a nerve agent at the front door of his Salisbury home. Specialists investigating the poisoning of the the Skripals have found the highest concentration of the nerve agent on the front door at the address, police said. Counter-terrorism detectives will continue to focus their inquiries on the home address for the coming weeks, and possibly months…

Thursday, March 29, 2018

Gold’s Old Friend Comes Back / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Remember LIBOR? The interest rate which soared during the global financial crisis? It’s on the rise again, but almost no one is paying adequate attention to it. We are – and we will analyze for you what this means for the gold market.

Hello LIBOR, My Old Friend
Simon and Garfunkel sang about darkness, the old friend. We can refer these words to LIBOR which has come to talk with us again. I bet you remember the Great Recession well. But let me briefly remind you that LIBOR soared in 2008 as banks were reluctant to lend to each other. The stress in the financial system fueled fears, increased risk premia and made LIBOR rise. Gold shined then. Just see the chart below.

Thursday, March 29, 2018

Uncle Sam Issuing $300 Billion In New Debt This Week Alone / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: GoldCore

– US needs to borrow almost $300 billion this week alone
– This is the largest debt issuance since 2008 financial crisis
– Trump threatens trade war with its biggest creditor – China
– Bond auctions have seen weak demand due to large supply and trade war concerns
– $20 trillion mark reached in early September 2017; $1 trillion added in just 6 months
– US total national debt level now exceeds $21.05 trillion and is accelerating higher
– U.S. debt and dollar crisis coming which will propel gold higher (see chart)

Thursday, March 29, 2018

Stocks End a Wild Quarter, as Bulls Scratch Their Heads / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Paul_Rejczak

Wednesday's trading session was pretty uneventful compared to Friday's, Monday's and Tuesday's volatility. Stocks fluctuated along their Tuesday's closing prices, as investors hesitated after slightly better-than-expected Final GDP number release. Will stocks rebound today? Or is this just a consolidation before another leg lower? It seems that there are still two possible future scenarios.

The main U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between -0.9% and -0.0% on Wednesday, as investors hesitated following Tuesday's sell-off. The sentiment remained pretty bearish despite some better-than-expected economic data releases. The S&P 500 index fluctuated along the level of 2,600. It is currently 9.4%  below January 26 record high of 2,872.87. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost just 0.05%, and the technology Nasdaq Composite lost 0.9% on Wednesday, following its Tuesday's sell-off of 3.3%.

Thursday, March 29, 2018

Sketchy Explanations For Stock Market Selling / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: WMA

Each time equity markets enter a corrective phase, the financial media has to find “the reason”. Without knowing “the reason” for selling, their articles would be too short and uninteresting. We posit that equity markets today are driven by animal spirits, with little regard to factors supposedly driving equity market moves. Even in “normal times” (which would not qualify this market), technicians would tell you that news follows the market. In other words, once a price trend is in place, subsequent news events are interpreted to support or explain what is already happening on markets.

Thursday, March 29, 2018

Building The World's Largest Solar Project / Commodities / Solar Energy

By: OilPrice_Com

Saudi Arabia wants to pour $200 billion into solar to build the world's largest solar project.

The Saudi sovereign wealth fund and SoftBank Group Corp. of Japan jointly announced plans to build a solar project that is staggering in size – 200 gigawatts (GW) by 2030. That would be about 100 times larger than some of the largest projects in the world right now. "It's by far the biggest solar project ever," Masayoshi Son, CEO of SoftBank said at a news conference Tuesday in New York after signing a nonbinding agreement with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS).

Thursday, March 29, 2018

ETF Investors Got Screwed Again -- When Will They Learn? / Stock-Markets / Exchange Traded Funds

By: Avi_Gilburt

As many of you know, I run a trading room with well over 3500 members, including over 450 money managers. I have seen the good, the bad, and the ugly as far as what traders and investors do through the years. And, no matter how much I warn about the pitfalls in the market, many chose to ignore me, and eventually learn on their own the hard way.

To this end, this article is focused mostly upon the evils of leveraged ETF’s and those that advise their use as “buy and hold” vehicles.

Thursday, March 29, 2018

Cryptocurrency: Money or Asset? / Currencies / BlockChain

By: EconMatters

Some of the hypes and speculations surrounding bitcoin and cryptocurrency is that central banks may create their own digital currencies thus replacing fiat money altogether. A G20 draft communiqué already states cryptocurrencies “lack the traits of sovereign currencies” and seeks cryptocurrency regulation recommendations by July 2018. The Bank of International Settlements (BIS) also published a report last month entitled “Money in the digital age: what role for central banks?” stating:

“… while cryptocurrencies may pretend to be currencies, they fail the basic textbook definitions. Most would agree that they do not function as a unit of account. Their volatile valuations make them unsafe to rely on as a common means of payment and a stable store of value.”

Thursday, March 29, 2018

Can You Imagine $5000 GOLD? – I can, Here’s Why / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Enda_Glynn

My Bias: Long to a new all time high above 1827.
Wave Structure: Impulse structure to a new high.
Long term wave count: wave (3) above 1666.

Thursday, March 29, 2018

Oil Prices Vs. Production: See the "Elephant" Almost Everyone Ignores / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: EWI

If production drives prices, how does oil rise 14x when production trends sideways for 10 years?

There's a widespread assumption that supply and demand drive oil prices. Almost all economists base their oil forecasts entirely on this premise, and so do many speculators.

If the oil industry ramps up production and increases supply, economists expect a drop in oil prices. If production decreases, or some other factors hint at supply constraints, they anticipate a rise in oil's price.

Thursday, March 29, 2018

Outlook for Gold – Same but Different / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: P_Radomski_CFA

“Some things never change. Some things do.” You might be wondering why we are quoting one of the lines from the Matrix movie. The reason is because that’s exactly what we can say about the gold market and the price patterns in it. The thing that never changes is the fact that gold will always somehow react to the fundamental news, but the way it reacts will vary over time. Moreover, this quote could describe the situation with the current analogies and price patterns in gold, silver and mining stocks. Because of the trade-war-based rally, they changed, but something didn’t. The outlook that they imply.