Sunday, March 25, 2018

China Invades Saudi Oil Realm: PetroDollar Kill / Politics / Saudi Arabia

By: Jim_Willie_CB

China is working a strategy with the Saudis. Since the last months of 2017, the Jackass has been firm that the ARAMCO deal for IPO stock introduction might never occur. And if it did, then Hong Kong might be the only location for the IPO launch. It seems that disclosure and transparency is non-existent to this Arab kingdom. Now the stock listing might be in Riyadh and nowhere else. Imagine the risk to brokerage houses if the truth comes out, that the Saudi oil reserves are only 20% to 40% of the disclosed amount, a grand lie and deep fraud. Such will not stop China from investing privately in ARAMCO, since it would serve two purposes. It would enable huge diverse participation in the Saudi Economy, which contains a second treasure trove of minerals. It would enable the Chinese to purchase Saudi oil in RMB terms for payment. In the last month, the Russians confirmed an equally sized investment stake in ARAMCO. If the Chinese sit on the ARAMCO board of directors, they will surely convince the Saudis to alter the payment method in approval. It could be a primary part of the deal.

Saturday, March 24, 2018

SPX Wedge Breaks and Double Gaps: Capatulation but GOLD is Coiling for Breakout / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Submissions

Arb Cap writes: The stock market continued its correction lower with a sharp downmove the last nine days (12 to 22 March). The S&P 500, Dow Industrials and Nasdaq 100 lost more than five percent, while the S&P Mid-Cap 400 and S&P Small-Cap 600 fell 3.76% and 2.77%, respectively. The Dow Industrials (red) was the first back to negative territory with a move below the zero line on Monday, while the S&P 500 (black) and S&P Mid-Cap 400 (blue) followed suit on Thursday. The S&P Small-Cap 600 and Nasdaq 100 remain positive year-to-date.

Saturday, March 24, 2018

The Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes Aren’t Bearish for the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

The Fed hiked interest rates this Wednesday. This is far from being the last rate hike in this rate hike cycle.

We’ve already shown that rising interest rates aren’t consistently bearish for the stock market. We can look at this idea from another angle.

If rising interest rates are bearish for the stock market, then the stock market should fall after the last rate hike in a rate hike cycle (i.e. the economy and stock market should tank after the Fed has increased interest rates by “too much”).

Saturday, March 24, 2018

TRADE WAR / Politics / Protectionism

By: Gary_Tanashian

It has in the past been “the financial crisis”, “the Euro crisis”, “Greek debt”, “Italian banks”, “the fiscal cliff”, “Brexit” and so on. Every one of those events an extension of Keynesianism and its debt-leveraged monetary magic tricks. But now the buzz phrase is “trade war”, a different kind of animal.

The brewing trade war with China is different. With every damn one of the events noted above we here in the anti-hype environs of nftrh.com (and before it, biiwii.com) have tried to maintain perspective about why it was occurring (Thing 1, which we had anticipated in essence if not in the exact way it played out) or why they would not prove long-term bearish or bring on the end of the world (Things 2-6).

Saturday, March 24, 2018

Will Gold Price Breakout? 3 Things to Watch… / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Gold has firmed above $1300 in recent days and is holding comfortably above $1300 for now. We think the market will break to the upside sometime this year. The question is when. Here are 3 things to watch that will tell us if Gold is on the cusp of that break-out soon or later.

First, keep your eye on Gold’s close at the end of next week. It’s not only the end of the week and month but also the end of the quarter. While Gold has traded above $1350 multiple times in the past two years, it has not made a quarterly close above $1330 since 2012. Since this is a quarterly time frame, we would need to see a close above $1340 or even $1345 to mark a significant breakout. If Gold can make such a close next Friday then the odds are good that it could break above $1375 fairly soon.  

Friday, March 23, 2018

Gold and Silver Possession Is a Constitutional Right – and a Practical Imperative / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: MoneyMetals

By David Smith, It's a safe bet that most readers of this column who hold physical precious metals – gold, silver, platinum and palladium – do so because they view them as a store of value. Gold and silver especially, have served in the role of honest money for at least five millennia.

With a melting point 700 degrees higher than gold, the Spaniards weren't able to determine how to utilize platinum, but they still considered it to be valuable, calling it platina – "little silver." It would be tossed it back into a stream so that it might be able to "grow up"!

Friday, March 23, 2018

One Change the Bitcoin Posse Is Unlikely to See / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Mike_McAra

“Bitcoin will reach the moon,” they said. “$20,000 is only the beginning,” they pressed. The harsh reality of the recent move is that appreciation has been nowhere in sight. Harsh, that is, if you haven’t been positioned properly. Are Bitcoin traders bound to be left with their teeth clenched, watching Bitcoin fluctuate? No. There’s a possibility for some to grow the profits they already have on specific positions and for others to jump in during the next part of the move.

Friday, March 23, 2018

US Trade Tariffs - Trading Barbs Down To The Wire / Politics / Protectionism

By: Brady_Willett

The opening salvos have been fired and the body count could soon start piling up.  No, I am not talking about the steel and aluminum tariffs announced by Trump a couple of weeks ago (which seemed to be more of a ploy to try and encourage favorable NAFTA/trade negotiations rather than a real act of ‘war’).  Rather, the sides doing battle now are the world’s two biggest economic guns – the U.S. and China!

Trump slaps China with about $60 billion in tariffs CNBC Memorandum
China responds to Trump tariffs with proposed list of 128 US products to target CNBC

Friday, March 23, 2018

Gold Junior Mining Stocks GDXJ Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Zeal_LLC

The junior gold miners’ stocks have spent much of the past year grinding sideways near lows, sapping confidence and breeding widespread bearishness.  The entire precious-metals sector has been left for dead, eclipsed by the dazzling taxphoria stock-market rally.  But traders need to keep their eyes on the fundamental ball so herd sentiment doesn’t mislead them.  The juniors’ recent Q4 results proved quite strong.

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports.  Required by securities regulators, these quarterly results are exceedingly important for investors and speculators.  They dispel all the sentimental distortions surrounding prevailing stock-price levels, revealing the underlying hard fundamental realities.  That serves to re-anchor perceptions.

Friday, March 23, 2018

Global Trade War Fears See Precious Metals Gain And Stocks Fall / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: GoldCore

– Market turmoil as trade war concerns deepen and Trump appoints war hawk Bolton
– Oil, gold and silver jump as ‘Russia China Hawk’ Bolton appointed
– Oil up 4%, gold up 2.2% and silver up 1.6% this week (see table)
– Stocks down sharply – Nikkei down 4.5%, S&P 4.3% & Nasdaq 5.5%
– Bolton scares jittery markets already shell-shocked by US’ tariffs against China
– Currency wars and trade wars tend to proceed actual wars
– Gold now outperforming stocks year to date (see table)

Friday, March 23, 2018

Stocks Recovering from a "deep dive" Overnight / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX futures challenged the Cycle Bottom support by declining overnight to 2718.50. It is now in bounce mode and may challenge the trendline today. The 38.2% retracement is almost precisely at the trendline at 2702.83 while the 50% retracement is at 2721.74. Mid-Cycle resistance at 2714.10 is a common retracement point. There is central bank intervention. The question is, how far can they retrace lost ground?

Friday, March 23, 2018

Debt Cycles and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

There is a range of factors which drive the Kondratiev waves. Following Schumpeter, we have focused so far on technological innovations. However, debt cycles are also a key. What are they?

The debt cycles are comprised of alternate leveraging and deleveraging of debt. The former occurs when people incur debt, increasing the debt-to-income ratio, or the debt-to-assets ratio. The latter is the opposite, so it means paying back the debts, which leads to the decrease in the amount of debt relative to wages or assets.

Friday, March 23, 2018

Blaming the Fed for Weaker Greenback US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Nadia_Simmons

Although the Federal Reserve raised interest rates yesterday, the forecast for two more hikes this year (instead of three) disappointed market participants who turned their backs on the U.S. dollar, triggering quite sharp selloff. But did anything really change in the technical picture of the greenback?

Before we analyze our currency pairs, let’s check what changed (and what has not changed) in the short-term picture of the USD Index after yesterday’s news (chart courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

Thursday, March 22, 2018

The Tertiary Bubbles Have Blown Up… Can the Fed Manage the Secondary Ones? / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble

By: Graham_Summers

The big questions being tossed around Wall Street today are: why are markets such a mess? Why are we getting these wild swings?

The reality is that the markets are NOT a mess. These are actually normal healthy markets. Healthy markets move, sometimes a lot in a small span of time.

Thursday, March 22, 2018

Watch This Group Signal Stock Market Trend Changes / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: EWI

Virtually all stock market forecasting is based on the fallacy of linear extrapolation

Many investors would welcome a "secret insight" about the stock market that someone whispers in their ear.

But you can get "tipped off" on when a financial trend is about to change from a very public source that many investors may overlook.

That source is none other than the U.S. government.

Thursday, March 22, 2018

Gold +1.8%, Silver +2.5% As Fed Increases Rates And Trade War Looms / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: GoldCore

– Gold gained 1.8% and silver 2.5% to $1,333/oz and $16.60/oz yesterday
– Gold climbs as Fed increases interest rates by 0.25% – now 1.5% to 1.75% range
– Dovish Fed Chair Powell plans fewer than expected rate hikes in 2018
– Markets disappointed at lack of hawkish comments from new Fed Chair 
– Dollar LIBOR rises to highest level since November 2008 – $200 trillion worth of dollar-denominated financial products including mortgages based off LIBOR
– Trade wars look set to escalate and Trump expected to announce tariffs on Chinese imports today

Thursday, March 22, 2018

When Is Three Better for Gold Than Four? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

His hand didn’t shake. Powell hiked interest rates at the first FOMC meeting with him as the Chair. But the key factor for the gold market is what he signaled about the future path of the federal funds rate. The crucial word is “three”, not “four”.

Another Meeting, Another Hike
In line with expectations, the FOMC acknowledged the improved economic outlook and raised interest rates again. The key paragraph of the recent monetary policy statement is as follows:

Thursday, March 22, 2018

Stocks are Gapping Beneath the Trendline Support / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX futures appear to be gapping down beneath the trendline at 2700.00. This may be yet another big down day.

ZeroHedge reports, “Yesterday, we showed that according to Wall Street, the biggest tail risk facing investors right now is a "trade war"...

... and that should trade tensions escalate, lower stock prices would be the immediate result (and that managers would sell stocks in advance).

Thursday, March 22, 2018

Fed Action Casts Shadow on Bullish Case for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Paul_Rejczak

Fed's interest rate hike drove stocks lower on Wednesday, as investors feared tightening monetary policy could considerably slow future growth. Will stock market indexes continue lower today? Expectations before the opening of today's trading session are very negative, but we may see more volatility. The market is still at a crossroads.

The main U.S. stock market indexes lost 0.2-0.3% on Wednesday's following relatively brief rally after the FOMC's Rate Decision release. The S&P 500 index continued to fluctuate within its short-term consolidation. It is currently around 5.2% below January 26 record high of 2,872.87. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.2%, and the technology Nasdaq Composite lost 0.3%.

Thursday, March 22, 2018

A Strong Economy and Weak Stock Market is Bullish for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

The stock market and economy move in sync over the long run. When the stock market deviates from the economy, it inevitably realigns itself with the economy’s direction within a few months.

The U.S. stock market’s correction in February 2018 was accompanied by a growing economy. This implies that the current “small correction” will not turn into a “significant correction” or bear market. Here’s the study: what happens when…