Tuesday, May 08, 2018
Study: Does the year-over-year change in Corporate Earnings Lead the Stock Market? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
I concluded that the absolute value of corporate earnings does not consistently lead the stock market in a previous study. I.e. sometimes corporate earnings fall before the stock market falls, sometimes the stock market falls before corporate earnings fall.
But what about the rate of change in corporate earnings? Does the change in corporate earnings GROWTH (i.e. second derivative of corporate earnings) lead the stock market? It appears to be the case from 1990-present.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 08, 2018
Gold’s Fundamentals are Not Bullish…Yet / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Ask some gold bugs why Gold has not broken out yet and you will probably get the usual answers. Some will say it’s due to manipulation or price suppression. Others will mention the current rally in the US Dollar (while neglecting that the previous decline in the greenback was unable to take Gold to a new high). Few would say the fundamentals are not in place. No one can know for certain but Gold’s fundamentals have not improved over the past year and are not where they need to be to support a breakout.
Tuesday, May 08, 2018
Bitcoin is Bitcoin / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Submissions
Mike Jarmuz writes: Someone once tried to sell me a used Rolex for $500 when the fair market value of this “Rolex” would be around $4,500. The watch said Rolex, it definitely looked like a Rolex and for someone who never had worn a Rolex before….. I guess it also felt like a Rolex. But… this watch was definitely NOT a Rolex and I thankfully did not make this purchase. This is pretty much the analogy for anyone buying Bitcoin Cash today and thinking it’s Bitcoin. It looks like Bitcoin, it may feel like Bitcoin and somehow there are people out there who refer to it as “the real Bitcoin.” I mean after all, Bitcoin.com has multiple PSA references and warnings about it. Unfortunately, they aren’t warning you (to your benefit) at all. They are one of the biggest proponents in the spreading of misinformation. The whole damn website is lousy with inaccurate and downright factually incorrect information. But why? Why would Bitcoin.com along with a handful of other “bad actors” try and doup the public?
Tuesday, May 08, 2018
From Trumped Equities to Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Dan_Steinbock
Despite misguided economic policies and rising geopolitical tensions, the long market expansion has prevailed. But times may be changing. With the Trump fiscal policies and rearmament, America is taking more debt than in decades, even though its sovereign debt now exceeds $21.2 trillion, or 106 percent of the GDP. As fiscal stimulus kicks in (read: Trump’s tax cuts), the deficit will widen.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 08, 2018
Aussie Between the RBA Interest Rates and Trade War Talks / Currencies / Austrailia
By: Submissions
Australia’s central bank has kept their benchmark interest rate at record low 1.5%, and many Wall Street analysts believe that interest rates will remain on hold during 2018 and 2019. We are currently in the 19th consecutive month where interest rates have been held steady.
This continued hold on interest rates is why the AUD rate has continued to remain under pressure. The bearish trend established in 2011 is still intact despite the short rallies that have interrupted the trend.
Even though the RBA expects the Australian economy to grow faster, it also acknowledges that the weakening housing sector and the deflationary pressure themes are going to delay any prospects of normalizing the interest rates.
Tuesday, May 08, 2018
Do Corporate Earnings Lead the Stock Market? / Stock-Markets / Corporate Earnings
By: Troy_Bombardia
I’ve been building more quantitative trading models recently. I know that some hedge funds calculate the stock market’s “fair value” and then trade around that fair value. For the record, this is not what I do with the Medium-Long Term Model.
This “fair value” is usually “the stock market’s average P/E ratio during certain market environments”. Here’s an example of how the stock market’s average valuation (P/E ratio) – aka “fair value” – changes based on changes in interest rates.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 08, 2018
The Secret Play Earning Oil Investors Billions / Companies / Oil Companies
By: OilPrice_Com
...
Monday, May 07, 2018
Global Synchronized Economic Slowdown / Economics / Global Economy
By: Michael_Pento
Not too long ago the overwhelming consensus from the perennial Wall Street Carnival Barkers was that investors were enjoying a global growth renaissance that would last for as far as the eye can see. Unfortunately, it didn’t take much time to de-bunk that fairy tale. After a lackluster start to 2018, the market's expectations for global growth for the remainder of this year is now waning with each tick higher in bond yields.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 07, 2018
Understanding Technical Analysis In Currency Trading / InvestorEducation / Forex Trading
By: Submissions
There are many different things you will learn when you start forex trading. One of the things that will have an impact on your entire trading career however, is learning technical analysis. Forex trading is not just about reading the charts and observing the signs. It is also about a deep understanding of the forex trading strategies (for example fibonacci trading strategy) through logical means. Calculations and forecasts are thus an essential part of the trade. One of the best ways of getting deep insights about the market is by carrying out technical analysis. By using technical charts and technical data, you can have better prospects in the trade.
Monday, May 07, 2018
The Stock Market Is Going To Crash / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
Well, everyone else has been calling for a market crash, so I thought maybe I should too. But, while I think the market will likely crash again, I don’t think it is going to happen just yet, as I still believe this bull market has several more years to run.
When I peruse the articles on Seeking Alpha, it seems to be en vogue today to be bearish. The headline articles discuss how the market has now moved into being a bear market, or that the VIX is about to skyrocket, or the market is overvalued, discussions of black swans, the impending debt crisis, etc.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 07, 2018
Stock Market Still Range Bound / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – The bull market is continuing with a top expected in the low 3000s.
Intermediate trend – The intermediate correction from 2873 should continue until about mid-May.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 07, 2018
US Stock Market Indexes Setup Bottom Confirmation Pattern / Stock-Markets / Articles
By: Chris_Vermeulen
On Wednesday, May 2, we issued a research post supporting our position that the markets were nearing an apex breakout and that critical support and resistance levels had established within the market. We indicated that volatility is usually quite high throughout these apex breakout moves with the potential for a “wash-out” price rotation in the works. In other words, as these apex breakouts happen, price can sometimes, falsely, break to one side or the other and rotate very quickly to the other side – creating what we call a “wash-out” price reversal.
Closing out this week, prices broke lower on Thursday, May 3, and reversed sharply before the end of the trading session to create a “wash-out” low formation which is indicative of a price bottom. We felt strongly that our ADL price modeling system’s analysis as well as this bottom formation are strong evidence that the US majors will enter a new upside price trend very quickly.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 06, 2018
How to Deal With a Suspended Driving License / Personal_Finance / Motoring
By: Anwar_Hossain
If you have a suspended driving license, it means your driving rights have been withdrawn temporarily, because of driving under the influence of drugs (DUIs) or having no car insurance.It is a crime to drive a vehicle when your driving license has been revoked according to the California Vehicle Code 14601 VC. Besides, you can face severe suspensions from both federal courts and the California Department of Motor vehicles (DMV). The good news is that there are ways to reinstate your driver’s license.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 06, 2018
Stock Market Golden/Death Cross Model that Yields 16% per year / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
So far I’ve shown you 2 simple trading models that use 1 indicator per model: a Golden/Death Cross model and an Initial Claims model.
Here’s the beauty. When you combine 2 simple ideas and models together, you make it even better. Remember, I said traders who combine fundamentals with technicals perform the best.
Here’s the new model. It’s based off of the Golden/Death Cross Model, but it’s combined with an Initial Claims filter.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, May 05, 2018
Land Rover Discovery Sport Rear View Reverse Camera Test / Personal_Finance / Motoring
By: N_Walayat
Here's a test of the Land Rover Discovery Sports rear view reversing camera installed as standard on HSE and above, whilst available as optional extras on lower trims for the DISCO Sport model. We compare what is shown on the Disco's display against what is actually happening as you reverse your car i.e. how well does the screen display and warning bars compare against how much space you actually have left i.e. too much space and your not parking properly! Too little space which would be disastrous!
Saturday, May 05, 2018
DASH Cryptocurrency Analysis / Currencies / BlockChain
By: MarketsToday
Following Breakout of Bull Pennant Dash Pulls Back to Second Entry Zone
Dash (DASH/USD) breaks out of a bullish pennant and subsequently pulls back to test the top trend line of the pattern and the 50-period moving average as support. Note that the 50 period line was an exact match with the trend line at the breakout point. So far it has held thereby providing a possible second entry zone in anticipation of further strengthening following the breakout.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 04, 2018
One Sure Stocks Bear Market Sign / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Barry_M_Ferguson
Investors should always be on the alert for a bear market. Wouldn’t it be great if there was a clear sign that a bear market was forming? Well, in my opinion, there is.
I call it the formation of a Dikembe Mutombo Line. In our nanny-state, government manipulated, anti-capitalism, totally corrupted, illusion of wealth pseudo economy, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is the ultimate shiny object of hypnotism. The average person on the street has no idea whatsoever how they are being punked every single day.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 04, 2018
Gold Hit by USDX Squeeze / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold was enjoying a solid spring rally until a couple weeks ago, nearing major upside breakouts. But its nice advance has crumbled since, really weighing on sentiment. Gold fell victim to a rare major short squeeze in US Dollar Index futures. The surging USDX motivated gold-futures speculators to flee rather aggressively. But this will likely prove a short-lived anomaly, after which gold’s assault on highs will recommence.
Gold’s seasonally-atypical weakness over the past couple weeks is very important for speculators and investors to understand. It had nothing at all to do with fundamentals, but was completely driven by the hyper-leveraged gold-futures traders. These guys have long been fixated on the US dollar’s fortunes, looking to its benchmark US Dollar Index for trading cues. That can slave gold’s price to the dollar at times.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 04, 2018
How Does A Crypto Analyst Makes A Mistake And Still Make Over 265% Profit? / Currencies / BlockChain
By: Avi_Gilburt
Ryan Wilday is our newest analyst. When we found him, he had already been trading over two decades for a supplemental income, but without the Elliott Wave Theory. He was a quick study in the theory and soon was producing professionally accurate wave counts, according to our method- Fibonacci Pinball. Ryan was also an early adopter of cryptocurrency and trading the new asset class.
His life started to change in August 2017 when I brought him on staff at ElliottWave Trader to lead our cryptocurrency analysis team.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 04, 2018
Macro Changes for Gold and Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Gary_Tanashian
Since early 2016 we have been carrying forward a theme illustrating that until the macro trends in place since 2011 change, the situation would be as is, stocks trending up and the precious metals in consolidation/correction. The current trends were kicked off symbolically, and functionally to a degree, by the Fed’s concoction of Operation Twist, a plan with the expressed goal of manipulating the macro (or in the Fed’s word, “sanitizing” inflation signals). Until this year it has been the gift that keeps on giving to unquestioningly bullish stock market participants.