Monday, February 04, 2019
Stock Market Fib Resistance Warning to Err on Side of Caution / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The S&P 500 (SPX) is right at a price zone pointing more towards a meaningful give-back in the short-term.
This zone of resistance can be viewed through the Fibonacci price and time relationships on the daily SPX chart.
As the chart shows, as of Friday's close, the SPX resided approximately 16% above its late December lows, amounting to an exact 62% Fibonacci recovery of the entire prior decline from the Sep 21 all-time-high at 2940.91 to the Dec 26 low at 2346.58.
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Monday, February 04, 2019
Darker Clouds over Europe / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Dan_Steinbock
Not only is Europe’s expansionary cycle fading, but the region is about to face challenges that it has to tackle amid growing political fragmentation.Italy slipped into recession in the fourth quarter of 2018, according to new data. France continues to be haunted by Yellow vests protests. Germany has entered an era of uncertainty. And Brexit overshadows the UK future.
In the absence of Trump’s tariffs, Europe could have benefited from a nascent recovery of world trade, investment and finance. But now even these hopes are diminishing.
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Monday, February 04, 2019
Stock Market Decision Time / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Long-term trend resuming?
Intermediate trend – Countertrend may be over.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
Monday, February 04, 2019
Venezuela Trying to Sell Gold to Stay Afloat / Politics / Venezuela
By: Richard_Mills
Venezuela is reaching for its last card as the deck collapses on President Nicolas Maduro’s failed regime.
The country is selling its gold in order to provide liquidity for imports of basic goods.
You know your regime’s days are numbered when you start eyeing your bullion. Indeed gold’s status as store of value, as money, the only currency available when yours is worthless, has come into play with respect to the crisis that has been unfolding in Venezuela over the last couple of years and appears to be reaching its peak.
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Monday, February 04, 2019
Is The Stock Market Manic? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
VIX challenged Long-term support at 16.39, closing beneath it on Friday. Primary Cycle [C] has been delayed another week. While investors are heaving a sigh of relief, the Wave structure and Cycles suggest a strong reversal may be imminent.
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Sunday, February 03, 2019
Some Optimistic Precious Metals Charts / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Rambus_Chartology
Below is a weekly chart for the GDX we’ve been following for a long time watching the two and a half year falling wedge completing about 8 weeks ago when we finally got the breakout. The backtest to the top rail took about seven weeks to complete with this weeks price action possibly beginning the impulse move higher. To be honest I still can’t rule out another backtest to the top rail and the 30 week ema, but at this point it appears the breaking out and backtesting process looks to be complete.
Sunday, February 03, 2019
Is the Stock Market Ever Going to Pullback? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
By now everyone is aware that these “crash & rally” patterns are usually followed by a pullback or retest. Most of these pullbacks/retests occur once the S&P has reached its 50% retracement. But with the S&P now having retraced 60% of its Q4 2018 decline, many traders are doubting whether or not the S&P will pullback/retest at all, or if it’s going straight to new all time highs.
Saturday, February 02, 2019
Hyperinflation -- A Kaleidoscope Of Uses And Abuses / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Steve_H_Hanke
The word “hyperinflation” is sprinkled throughout the press each day. We read that Iran is hyperinflating. The same is written about Zimbabwe and Venezuela, as well as a potpourri of other countries that are experiencing inflation flare ups. While Iran came close to a hyperinflation in the fall of 2012, it has never experienced an episode of hyperinflation. And, while Zimbabwe experienced hyperinflation episodes in 2007-2008 and 2017, it is not hyperinflating now. At present, Venezuela is the only country experiencing a hyperinflation. It’s clear that journalists and those they interview tend to play fast and loose with the word “hyperinflation.”
To clean up the hyperinflation landscape, we must heed the words of the great Eugen von Böhm-Bawerk, one of the founders of the Austrian School of Economics, who, in 1891, wrote “…We too must bring into our science a strict order and discipline, which we are still far from having…by a disorderly and ambiguous terminology we are led into the most palpable mistakes and misunderstandings – all these failings are of so frequent occurrence in our science that they almost seem to be characteristic of its style.”
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Saturday, February 02, 2019
Without A Currency Board, Venezuela's Opposition Will Fail / Politics / Venezuela
By: Steve_H_Hanke
Venezuela’s currency, the bolivar, has tanked. Just take a look at the ugly chart below.
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Saturday, February 02, 2019
The U.S. Declares Economic War Against Venezuela / Economics / Venezuela
By: Steve_H_Hanke
Since the election of Hugo Chavez in December of 1998, Venezuelans have embraced Chavismo. This peculiar form of socialism has allowed Venezuela to morph into what is in essence an organized crime syndicate and has pushed the country in an economic death spiral. For the stunning evidence of this death spiral, we need look no further than Venezuela’s inflation rate.
Today, Venezuela’s annual inflation rate is 112,189%/yr. The chart below tracks the daily measurements of this annual rate. Unlike the fantastic inflation forecasts thrown around by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the data in the chart are real measurements—accurate measurements.
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Saturday, February 02, 2019
Tesco Cheap KitKat's to Win £8000 Holidays, plus 100 Travel Prizes Per day / Personal_Finance / Freebies and Comps
By: Anika_Walayat
KitKat's new promotion went live online on the 1st of Feb, where the top prizes are 10 holidays worth £8,000 each which can be instantly won by finding a golden ticket inside a Kitkat packet. Additionally 100 getaway goodies are available to be won EVERY DAY just by entering the codes found on the inside of kitkat wrappers.
Watch our video for the full details of what should prove to be an easy to win promotion. Especially given that multi-packs of Kitkat's can currently be had for just 90pence, as opposed to £2 to £2.20, means that NOW is the time to stock up!
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Friday, February 01, 2019
Crude Oil – How Many Minutes to Midnight Before We Act? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Yesterday, some might have wondered where is the limit to the upswing in oil. It would be natural to expect it to catch up to e.g. gold and silver upswings. Would be, could be. We just saw something that made us act. Diligently, with foresight and confidence – when the odds are with us. It’s time to share it with you.
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Friday, February 01, 2019
Amazon is Just the Latest Bellweather to Signal a Recession is Here / Companies / Corporate Earnings
By: Graham_Summers
While the media focuses on the political hot topic du jour, major corporations are telling us that a recession is fast approaching.
Economic bellwether and industrial Caterpillar missed estimates and downgraded its guidance for 2019. It now joins Amazon, Apple, Samsung, LG, Fed Ex, Johnson & Johnson, Nautilus, Tesla, Tailored Brands, Signet Jewelers, Delta, Skyworks, Macy’s, Kohl’s, and American Airlines… all of which have lowered forward guidance in the last month.
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Friday, February 01, 2019
Get Ready For The Next Big Upside Leg In Precious Metals and Miners / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We recently closed our GDXJ trade for a 10.5% total profit with our members. We are preparing for a lower price rotation over the next 45+ days that will allow us to plan for new long. Our research indicates the metals/miners should enter a downside price rotation over the next 45+ days as the US stock markets continue to rally. Give this expectation, it is important to understand how we are timing this move for our members and attempting to take advantage of strategic trade deployment.
With Gold recently breaking above $1300, many analysts have been calling for a continued breakout move to the upside as well as a massive market correction in the US stock market. We’ve been calling for just the opposite to happen – a pause in the metals/miners near this $1300~1320 level.
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Friday, February 01, 2019
40 Years of Chinese Economic Reforms and Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The economic development of China is one of the most important events in the history of the world. In an unprecedentedly short time, millions of people have been taken out from poverty. But, as no country has ever developed so fast, that great story raises important worries.
We invite you to read our today’s article about the great progress China made in the last forty years and find out whether it’s too good to be true and it must end with some catastrophe, triggering rally in the gold prices.
One of the biggest risks for the global economy which can materialize this year is the slowdown of China’s economic growth. So, it is wise to analyze the current state of the Chinese economy – its implications for the gold market and what will happen next. As December 2018 marked the forty years of market reforms in China, we will adopt a long-term perspective, explaining how China transformed itself from a poor, backward and isolated country to the world’s economic power. We will examine what the global economy and the precious metals market can expect in China’s fifth decade of reform and development.
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Friday, February 01, 2019
Fed Statement Commentary / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Peter_Schiff
While some may have been confused by Fed Chairman Powell's circular statements in yesterday's press conference, the takeaway should be abundantly clear: the period of Fed tightening, is over. The Fed will now hold steady on interest rates, and when they move again, they are more likely to lower rates than to raise them. And while the Fed's program of balance sheet reductions is technically still underway, Powell made it clear that the program is no longer on "automatic pilot" and that the $50 billion per month of bond sales will likely diminish, and ultimately, conclude much earlier than anyone had predicted just a few weeks ago.
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Friday, February 01, 2019
5 Charts That Explain Disruption Investing 2019 / Companies / Investing 2019
By: Stephen_McBride
“Stephen… what is disruption investing exactly?” I often get asked this question.
Most folks know me as the “disruption guy.”
I recommend disruptive companies that upend entire industries and invent the future.
In this article, I want to show you five charts that will help you understand the driving forces behind disruption.
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Thursday, January 31, 2019
Peak Gold and the Coming Supply Crunch / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
During the lackluster and otherwise unremarkable trading of 2018, a hugely important development took place in the precious metals markets. Gold production, in the estimation of some top industry insiders, peaked.
Peak gold represents the point at which the total number of ounces being pulled out of the ground by miners reaches a maximum.
It doesn’t necessarily mean gold production will suffer a precipitous fall. But it does mean the mining industry lacks the capacity to ramp up production in order to meet rising global demand and even higher prices would not make it happen.
Thursday, January 31, 2019
Why Amazon and Google’s Best Days Are Ahead / Companies / Investing 2019
By: Stephen_McBride
Imagine standing on the curb and your taxi pulls up… but there’s no driver inside.You climb in the back and press the “start ride” button.
The car begins moving. It’s driving itself.
Sounds futuristic, right?
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Thursday, January 31, 2019
Counter Cyclical Market Winds Blow, Gold Miners Front and Center / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Gary_Tanashian
As the stock market cracked on October 10th we noted…
Looks Who’s Holding Firm Amid the Carnage; the Gold Miners
And sure enough the GDX bottoming pattern noted in that post (and before that in an NFTRH subscriber update) played out perfectly amid the stock market carnage going on all around it.
Was I trying to predict something? Of course not. I was just following general rules we’ve had in place through all of NFTRH’s 10-plus year history and privately for myself since early in the bull market that began in 2001. Very simply, the counter-cyclical winds must blow and the Macrocosm must come front and center for a constructive fundamental view of the gold stock sector. That first crack in the stock market was a good start.
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