Wednesday, February 13, 2019
Where Is Gold’s Rally in Response to USD Weakness? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Yesterday, the USD Index moved substantially lower while precious metals barely yawned. Why is gold not rallying? What does the gold-USD link tell us now, in combination with latest developments throughout the PMs sector? Let’s examine these and many more clues together.
Almost nothing happened yesterday in gold and silver, while miners moved a bit lower. The latter is a bearish indication, but not the most important one that we saw. The key issue is that what happened in the gold-USD link showed that gold was previously not showing strength with regard to the US currency. Yesterday’s action confirmed our yesterday’s thoughts on that matter. We explained the reasoning behind the lack of decline in gold in light of USD’s rally in the following way:
One reason might be that gold is simply showing strength, as it doesn’t want to move lower – it’s waiting for factors on which it could rally. But we don’t think that this the correct interpretation. There are multiple long-term bearish factors that remain in place and thus it seems that there might be a different interpretation. And there is. Actually, there are two reasons due to which this might be the case.
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Wednesday, February 13, 2019
This Little-Known Strategy Will Double Your Dividend Income at No Risk / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest
By: John_Mauldin
By Robert Ross The Wall Street Journal called it “the largest corporate cash disbursement in history.”
It was 2004, and Microsoft was one of the biggest companies on the planet.
Besides, they had a great year. So great that the company decided it would return $75 billion to shareholders.
Microsoft boosted its dividend by $3 billion to $0.32 per share. That was a dividend yield of 1.2%.
But the bigger news was the one-time dividend payment of $3.00 per share. This “special dividend” raised the dividend yield to 11%!
Wednesday, February 13, 2019
Theresa May Running Down the BrExit Clock So MP's are FORCED to Vote for Her Deal / Politics / BrExit
By: N_Walayat
Here we stand with just 6 weeks to go until BrExit day and Theresa May is continuing to repeat like a broken record that she is going to go to Brussels to negotiate a change to her withdrawal agreement. Despite the EU consistently repeating that the withdrawal agreement cannot be renegotiated.
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Tuesday, February 12, 2019
US Tech Stock Sector Setting Up for A Momentum Breakout Move / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research team has warned that the precious metals market would enter a 30~45 day rotational price trend on January 28, 2019. On January 16, 2019, we suggested that the upside price move in the US stock market had reached initial upside target zones and suggested that price pullback would be healthy near these levels. Today, we are warning that the markets are poised for a momentum breakout move that is setting up after the minor pullback in most US stock sectors the past week.
There are a number of news factors which support both or our analysis of the precious metals market and result in a failure of our analysis of the US stock market. First, the opportunity for the US government to agree to and pass a funding bill that removes uncertainty for many months. If the US government is able to pass a longer-term funding bill that eliminates pricing pressures and fears in the markets, the US stock market could breakout to the upside on a new momentum move very quickly. Second, if the US/China trade issues are resolved, in any substantial form, and trade begins to normalize over the next 6+ months, this could add even more fuel to the upside of the market and create a boost of momentum for almost all sectors.
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Tuesday, February 12, 2019
Key Support Levels for Gold Miners & Gold Juniors / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Gold stocks have to do more to confirm they are in a new bull market.
Sure, they’ve surged above key moving average resistance and breadth has improved.
However, the gold stocks have not yet broken the pattern of lower highs and breadth, while improved, is not at bull market levels yet. Let’s review where things currently stand.
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Tuesday, February 12, 2019
Socialist “Green New Deal” Points the Way to Hyperinflation / Politics / Government Intervention
By: MoneyMetals
Socialist Venezuela’s economic collapse and hyperinflationary spiral serves as a warning for American investors. It’s what can happen when a government spends perpetually beyond its means and refuses to face reality.
Despite a U.S. economy that appears relatively strong and stable on the surface, its foundation is beginning to crack under the pressure of a $22 trillion (and growing) debt load.
Both Republicans and Democrats are to blame for that. But rising pro-socialist sentiment within the Democrat Party could turn our current debt danger into a clear and present disaster.
Tuesday, February 12, 2019
Gold Market in 2019: WGC versus LBMA / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Both the WGC and LBMA published outlooks for the global economy and gold market in 2019. Who is right?
WGC’s Outlook for Gold in 2019
Let’s start from the World Gold Council (WGC) which published its 2019 outlook on January 10th. As befits the organization representing industry’s interests, the WGC is bullish on gold prices. No surprises here. According to the institution, the following trends will mainly shape the gold market in 2019: financial market instability, monetary policy and the US dollar, and structural economic reforms.
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Tuesday, February 12, 2019
Best Cash ISA as Providers Start Sowing Seeds for Fresh Season / Personal_Finance / ISA's
By: MoneyFacts
Savers will be pleased to find out that providers have stepped up competition in the ISA market, with rates rising and new deals being launched to entice savers since the start of 2019.
Indeed, the latest research from Moneyfacts.co.uk can reveal that 24* savings providers have increased rates or launched new ISAs, with some securing a Best Buy position in the process.
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Tuesday, February 12, 2019
Gold Prices Continue to Breakdown / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
On January 28, 2019, our research team issued a research post indicating we believed that Precious Metals would rotate lower over the next 45+ days in preparation for a momentum base/breakout that would initiate sometime near the end of April or early May. Recent price weakness in Gold has begun to confirm our analysis and we believe this price weakness will continue for the next 2~4 weeks while traders identify a price bottom and hammer out a momentum base/support level.
Gold is currently down another -1% this week and testing the $1307 level after rotating back to near $1320. Our analysis continues to suggest price weakness in the Precious Metals markets going forward for at least 2~3 more weeks. We are expecting the price of Gold to fall below $1290 and ultimately, potentially, test the $1260 level where we believe true support will be found.
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Tuesday, February 12, 2019
Trump’s Quest to Undermine Multilateral Development Banks / Economics / Global Financial System
By: Dan_Steinbock
In the postwar era, the multilateral development banks were created to facilitate global trade. Today, they are ‘America First’ targets.Recently, the White House has been pushing its America First stance in the World Trade Organization (WTO) by controversial appeals to a “national security exception.” In response to the Trump tariffs, several WTO members have brought dispute settlement cases against the U.S.
World Bank is next in the firing line. Reportedly, the White House will announce David Malpass as the nominee for President of the World Bank, after Jim Yong Kim's resignation well before the end of his five-year term in 2022.
In the 2016 election, Malpass served as Trump’s economic advisor. A year later he was appointed Undersecretary for International Affairs in the U.S. Department of the Treasury. But he is an odd choice to head the World Bank - a bit like selecting a coal CEO to head the struggle against climate change.
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Tuesday, February 12, 2019
Sheffield B17 US Bomber Crash 75th Anniversary Fly-past on 22nd February 2019 Full Details / Local / Sheffield
By: Anika_Walayat
2019 marks the 75th anniversary of the crash of a US B17 Flying Fortress bomber in Endcliffe Park, Sheffield on the 22nd of February 1944 costing the lives of the 10 member crew of the "Mi Amigo". In commemoration of which a fly past will take place on the 22nd of February 2019 at 8.45am at Endcliffe Park that will include an F15 fighter jet from RAF Lakenheath, other aircraft to include Ospreys, Typhoons and a Dakota.
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Tuesday, February 12, 2019
The $12 Trillion Federal Debt Bombshell / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Michael_J_Kosares
“Who on earth, or in global finance, will buy this looming mountain of Treasuries?”
“Investment in gold now is insurance. It’s not for short-term gain, but for long-term protection. I view gold as the primary global currency. It is the only currency, along with silver, that does not require a counter-party signature. Gold, however, has always been far more valuable per ounce than silver. No one refuses gold as payment to discharge an obligation. Credit instruments and fiat currency depend on the credit worthiness of a counter-party. Gold, along with silver, is one of the only currencies that has an intrinsic value. It has always been that way. No one questions its value, and it has always been a valuable commodity, first coined in Asia Minor in 600 BC.” – Alan Greenspan, former Fed chairman
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Tuesday, February 12, 2019
The 2 Rules For Successful Trading / InvestorEducation / Learn to Trade
By: Submissions
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Monday, February 11, 2019
Powell's Interest Rate Hikes Pause Won’t Save Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Michael_Pento
Jerome Powell threw Wall Street a lifeline recently when he decided to temporarily take a pause with the Fed’s rate hiking campaign. The Fed Head also indicated that the process of credit destruction, known as Quantitative Tightening, may soon be brought to an end. This move towards donning a dovish plume caused the total value of equities to soar back to a level that is now 137% of GDP. For some context, that valuation is over 30 percentage points higher than it was at the start of Great Recession and over 90 percentage points greater than 1985. So, the salient question for investors is: will a slightly dovish FOMC be enough to support the massively overvalued market?
The S&P 500 is now trading at over 16x forward earnings. But the growth rate of that earnings will plunge from over 20% last year to a minus 0.8% in Q1 of this year, according to FACTSET. It might have made sense to pay 19x earnings back in 2018 because it was justified by a commensurate rate of earnings growth. But only a fool would pay 16x or 17x earnings if growth is actually negative?
The only reason why that would make sense is if investors were convinced EPS growth was about to soar back towards the unusually-strong rate of growth enjoyed last year. And for that to be the case several stars have to align perfectly.
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Monday, February 11, 2019
Financial Sector Calls Gold ‘Shiny Poo.’ Are They Worried? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.
Coming up Larry Parks of the Foundation of the Advancement of Monetary Education joins me for an eye-opening discussion on our nation’s growing monetary problems and what you can do to help in the vital cause of bringing gold back into the nation’s consciousness. Larry also talks about the massive dangers our nation’s pension funds are facing. Don’t miss a must-hear interview with Larry Parks, one of the foremost experts on sound money, coming up after this week’s market update.
Gold and silver markets are pulling back a bit this week on the heels of U.S. dollar strength.
The dollar is benefiting from weakness in European currencies. Brexit uncertainties and downbeat economic forecasts for the European Union are weighing on the euro.
The corresponding dollar rally helped pull gold prices back down near the $1,300 support level in early trading Thursday. As of this Friday recording, gold trades at $1,314 an ounce – down a slight 0.3% for the week. Silver checks in at $15.79 to post a weekly decline of 0.9%. Platinum prices are off 3.5% to come in at an even $800. And finally, palladium is showing impressive relative strength, yet again – up 2.6% this week to bring spot prices to $1,396 per ounce.
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Monday, February 11, 2019
Stocks Bouncing, but Will They Resume the Uptrend? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks were mixed on Friday, as investors hesitated following Thursday's decline and a short-term profit-taking action. The S&P 500 index got closer to the 2,700 mark again last week. So is this just a downward correction or some new downtrend?
The U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between -0.3% and +0.1% on Friday, as investors hesitated following the Thursday's decline. The S&P 500 index broke above its short-term consolidation two weeks ago and it continued higher. The market got above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its October-December downward correction of 20.2% (2,713.88), but then it retraced some of the advance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.3% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.1% on Friday.
The nearest important resistance level of the S&P 500 index is at 2,720-2,725, marked by Thursday's daily gap down of 2,719.32-2,724.15. The resistance level is also at 2,740, marked by the local high. On the other hand, the support level is at 2,700-2,710, marked by the previous resistance level. The support level is also at 2,650.
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Monday, February 11, 2019
UK Fixed Rate Mortgage Availability Reaches Record Highs / Housing-Market / Mortgages
By: MoneyFacts
Moneyfacts UK Mortgage Trends Treasury Report data, not yet published, reveals that the number of fixed rate residential mortgage products currently available at most loan-to-value (LTV) tiers are at a record high, with the number of total fixed rate mortgages available at maximum 60%, 75%, 85% and 90% LTV tiers at their highest levels since Moneyfacts Treasury Reports records began in July 2007.
The total number of residential mortgage products available in the market has increased from 5,181 in January 2019 to 5,214 this month. This puts it 644 products above what it was this time last year, when the total stood at 4,570.
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Monday, February 11, 2019
Stock Market Headwind of Fib Resistance Versus Tailwind of Fed-Speak: Which Will Win Out This Week? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Mike_Paulenoff
In last weekend's article, we focused on the relentlessly advancing S&P 500 (SPX) from its December 26 low at 2346.58 into an important Fibonacci price and time resistance zone at 2713.70 on January 31.
The 2713.70 level represented a 62% SPX recovery of the entire September-December decline, while January 31 represented day number 89 since the September 2018 all-time high, and the day that the December-January recovery rally time period equaled 38% of the overarching total timeframe from the September high.
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Monday, February 11, 2019
SPY : More Volatility to Come Due to the Market’s Nature / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: ElliottWaveForecast
Our observations of the ETF, SPY, on the monthly chart have us expecting a spike in Volatility. The inherent bullish nature of the Market calls for advances (motive waves) as trends and pullback (corrective waves) as countertrend. To add to that nature, Elliott Wave Theory always suggests one of the 3 motive waves within an advance will be extended. The strongest advance is most often the 3rd wave. SPY has traced out a very strong move since lows of 2009. Due to that extension it’s hard to find technical support to call for another similar rally.
In the monthly chart of SPY below the early stages of the advance from 2009 show what can be an Elliott wave “nest” as labeled I-II in red, then ((1)) –((2)) in black. Nested labeling is quite common at the start of very powerful impulsive motive waves.
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Monday, February 11, 2019
BP Cycles and Elliott Wave / Companies / Oil Companies
By: ElliottWaveForecast
Firstly I would like to mention the data I have on the BP stock goes back to around 1968 when prices were ranging around in between 1 & 2 dollars. The stock price rose until the November 2007 highs. There it ended a cycle up from the all time lows. From there a sharp pull back lower in price was seen until the June 2010 lows. The point of this is to point out technically why the stock may see some pain before resuming an uptrend.
Secondly from there the bounce into the January 2011 high effectively ended a pullback cycle. That corrected the move up from the all time lows. From that January 2011 high price appears to have been an Elliott Wave flat structure that subdivides as 3-3-5. This remained above the June 2010 lows and ended on February 11, 2016. That is where the analysis starts on the daily chart shown below.
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