Tuesday, March 03, 2020
Gold Pulled Back, But Coronavirus Did Not / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
While viruses are counted among the simplest forms of life, they have quite a bearing on its advanced forms. And the coronavirus epidemic is, unfortunately, alive and well. What are the implications for the gold market?
Coronavirus Infects Europe
The coronavirus epidemic is, unfortunately, making its presence well known. Actually, it spreads quickly around the globe. The worldwide number of confirmed cases has reached almost 90,000, while the death toll has surpassed 3,000 people.
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Tuesday, March 03, 2020
Gold Trend Analysis, Elliott Waves and Silver Ratio / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Gold / SIlver Ratio
Gold price of $1560 divided of by the silver price of $18.07 results in a ratio of 86.3! The historic norm is for around 50. No I am not saying that Silver should trade to a ratio of 50 to Gold anytime soon. I will cover the prospects for the Silver price in a separate analysis.
So either Silver is CHEAP or Gold is EXPENSIVE, probably a mixture of both, which implies to expect Gold price weakness..
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Tuesday, March 03, 2020
Everything you needed to know about investing in precious metals / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Sumeet_Manhas
Gold. Silver. Platinum. Palladium. Precious metals mined from the bowels of the earth, refined and valued for their unique characteristics.
Since the beginning of civilization itself, humanity has long held an obsession with what is known colloquially as “bling.” Nowadays rather than adorning ourselves with beads and seashells, we’ve turned to precious metal.
If one thing’s for certain, it’s that investors have always turned to precious metals in times of economic uncertainty. Whether it’s their tangible presence as hard assets or long history as a safe haven, precious metals are a great investment.
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Tuesday, March 03, 2020
As COVID-19 Rocks Markets, Uncertainty Rises in ASEAN / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: Dan_Steinbock
As the virus momentum is shifting from China to other countries, Southeast Asia faces new economic pressures and indirect collateral damage, due to outbreaks in Japan and South Korea, and inadequate international preparedness.Worldwide, the number of confirmed novel coronavirus (COVID-19) cases could exceed 100,000 in a matter of week or so. The momentum of the outbreak has shifted, however.
In early February, I predicted a turnaround in the growth rate of new virus cases in China, but acceleration internationally. That's now the new normal. Until then, the cases in China were increasing exponentially. Now the momentum is increasingly outside China. In terms of the timeline, the number of confirmed cases outside China is now about the same as it was in the Chinese mainland about a month ago (Figure).
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Tuesday, March 03, 2020
Gold Sets Up For Another Massive Move Higher / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research team believes the recent downward price activity in Gold and Silver are indicative of past price patterns we saw in Gold over the 2007 to 2012 rally. Throughout almost every rally in precious metals (Gold), there have been a number of moderate to serious price corrections taking place within that extended rally. The current downside move is moderately small compared to historical price rotation in Gold and potentially sets up a massive upside potential rally to levels above $2100 per ounce.
Weekly Gold Price Pattern from 2007 – 2017
This chart, below, highlights the downside price rotation that took place just before and as the US stock markets collapsed in late 2008 and 2009. Notice how Gold collapsed nearly 28% right as extreme market weakness began to become present in the US stock market. Then, pay attention to how Gold rallied from $730 in multiple upside price legs to a peak just below $1900 – well above 110%. Could the same pattern already be setting up in 2020?
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Tuesday, March 03, 2020
Coronavirus Tech Supply Chain Warning! Buy Your Gadgets, Computer Hardware and Components Now! / Personal_Finance / Pandemic
By: HGR
The world's factory China has been in lock down since early February, with factory output barely reaching 15% of capacity That has already seen tech stocks heavily reliant on Chinese factory output such as Amazon, Apple, Samsung and Nvidia take a major hit on their stock prices. And if that was not bad enough other major semi conductor production hubs such as South Korea, Taiwan and Japan starting to take a hit, that likely lag where China is today by about 5 or 6 weeks in terms of factory output.
Which means to expect an imminent supply shock as warehouse stocks start to run dry resulting in huge across the board price hikes in your favourite tech.
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Monday, March 02, 2020
Coronavirus Infections Going Parabolic Outside China - Pandemic Day 84 / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Whilst China's infection numbers cannot be trusted, meanwhile the developed worlds numbers should prove more accurate, at least in the early stages of the pandemic. Though we still have two gaping holes on the world Map i.e. Africa and Central & South America, to imagine that there is just 1 infection in Egypt and 1 in Brazil is delusional, given the comings and goings of upwards of 1 million chinese workers across the continents, instead the infected number in Africa and South America already likely runs into the several thousands that as of yet remain unrecorded, so expect a sharp spike in numbers at some point when the degree of infections is acknowledged.
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Monday, March 02, 2020
Will Stocks Keep Cutting Through Supports Like a Hot Knife Through Butter? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: P_Radomski_CFA
During the first half of yesterday’s session, the bulls were in the driving seat after repelling sellers at the open. Yet again, their gains have evaporated, and stocks not only broke to new lows, but also closed there. Will today’s session be any different?
With the sizable daily volatility, it’s well worth checking the downswing on the weekly chart (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
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Monday, March 02, 2020
UK Coronavirus Infected Numbers Going Parabolic - Day 34 Update / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The total number of infections recorded in the UK has now started to increase on a daily basis, which now include person to person infections that are unable to be linked back to one of the growing outbreak hot spots across the world i.e. people who have brought the virus into the UK from China, South Korea or Italy which remain the main transmission points for the virus..
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Monday, March 02, 2020
UK Coronavirus WARNING - All Schools, Colleges, and Universities Closed by Mid March, Outbreaks Imminent! / Politics / Pandemic
By: N_Walayat
The fact that the UK only has 36 cases does not alter the fact that the UK is still in the calm before the coronavirus storm stage as my forecast of 14th Feb 2020 concluded in the infected to trend to 5000 by the end of March resulting in 90 deaths. Analysis of what is happening in South Korea illustrates that outbreaks tend to be explosive, soon jumping from 1 to 1000 infected in a matter of days, which is likely the pattern to expect in the UK, that I am sure will prompt emergency, even panic response such as cancellation of virtually all public events, schools, universities and colleges being closed, and infected hot spots being quarantined, all likely to start taking place by Mid March, as I first warned to expect to happen over 2 weeks ago. Where Britain's school could remain closed until September!
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Monday, March 02, 2020
Quit Social Media and Simplify Your Life... Like Me! / Politics / Social Media
By: Jeff_Berwick
After a crazy and busy week at Anarchapulco, I’m happy to be spending some much needed alone time in Valle de Bravo, Mexico, with the family.
As I have spent some time reading and decompressing, I thought to myself that I really need to make some serious changes in my life.
All of a sudden, the other day, the name Howard Hughes popped into my head which led me to do a quick bit of research about his life out of curiosity.
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Monday, March 02, 2020
Stock Market Post Bubble Contraction Finally Arrives / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Plunger
I would like to put out a quick special report to update you on the big picture in light of all of the market turmoil and provide some of the concepts which may suggest where we are going from here.
First off I you were reading these reports in the late summer of 2018 I put out a 3-part series on the Post Bubble Contraction (PBC). Well the PBC has now arrived. Of course it was virtually impossible to predict when it would finally get triggered since it was the FED fueling the bubble for as long as they could. But it appears the bubble has finally been pricked by a black swan from left field.
The below concepts you have all heard from me before, but now we see them actually unfold, so let’s review them again.
The Stock Market Top is in…But the Bear Market actually began on December 14th 2018.
December 14th, 2018, according to Dow Theory Methodology, was the date that a bear market sell signal was triggered, announcing that we were now in a bear market. This valid signal only occurs in Phase III of a bull market. Since then, despite the wild blow off top to new Dow highs the sell signal was never reversed and remained valid. To reverse the signal would require the transports going to new highs along with the Dow. Since this never occurred the signal remained in affect.
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Monday, March 02, 2020
Stock Market 20-week Cycle Low ? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: Uptrend from the 2009 low continues.
SPX Intermediate trend: Intermediate correction underway
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily-basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
Daily market analysis of the short-term trend is reserved for subscribers. If you would like to sign up for a FREE 4-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at anvi1962@cableone.net
Monday, March 02, 2020
Stock Market Dow, Three Strikes and your Out! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: readtheticker
The Dow has topped out with major events, the current virs could be the third strike!
2001 - 9/11 Twin Towers
2007 - Bear Sterns
2020 (?) - C19 Virus
Chart explains all. Dow Jones Industrial's comparing market tops 2000, 2007 and 2020.
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Sunday, March 01, 2020
Could Get Worse for Markets But Is a Gold/Silver Buying Opportunity / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: MoneyMetals
Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome back our good friend, Greg Weldon, CEO and President of Weldon Financial. Greg has decades of market research and trading experience specializing in the metals and commodity markets and even authored a book back in 2016 titled Gold Trading Boot Camp, where he accurately predicted the implosion of the US credit market and urged people to buy gold when it was only $550 an ounce.
He's regularly been making more great calls right here on our podcast over the years and it's great to have him on with us for the first time in 2020.
Greg, thanks as always for your time and welcome back. How are you?
Greg Weldon: I'm great Michael, thanks for the invite as always.
Sunday, March 01, 2020
Gold Stocks Spring Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: Zeal_LLC
Before their recent surge on gold regaining $1600, the gold stocks spent much of the past half-year or so largely drifting sideways to lower. That high consolidation really weighed on sentiment, with greed giving way to apathy. This sector normally tends to suffer a seasonal slump into mid-March, paving the way for gold stocks’ spring rally. That’s their second-strongest seasonal surge of the year running into early June.
Seasonality is the tendency for prices to exhibit recurring patterns at certain times during the calendar year. While seasonality doesn’t drive price action, it quantifies annually-repeating behavior driven by sentiment, technicals, and fundamentals. We humans are creatures of habit and herd, which naturally colors our trading decisions. The calendar year’s passage affects the timing and intensity of buying and selling.
Gold stocks exhibit strong seasonality because their price action mirrors that of their dominant primary driver, gold. Gold’s seasonality generally isn’t driven by supply fluctuations like grown commodities see, as its mined supply remains relatively steady year-round. Instead gold’s major seasonality is demand-driven, with global investment demand varying considerably depending on the time in the calendar year.
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Sunday, March 01, 2020
Will Gold Shine Due to Coronavirus Infecting the Global Economy? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
With new cases of COVID-19 outside China rising, the chances of a pandemic and global recession have increased recently. What are the implications for the gold market?
Coronavirus Spreads Over the World
Unfortunately, the new coronavirus remains the hottest topic of the news. Although the COVID-19 epidemic has been slowing down in China since the beginning of February, it has quickly spread to several other countries. The WHO’s situation report from February 26 says that the infections of the new coronavirus has been reported in 37 countries. Actually, for the first time since the beginning of the epidemic on December 8, there have been more new cases reported from countries outside of China than from China. With so many countries, including the Western ones, struggling with the disease, the COVID-19 ceased to be Asian issue and has become a truly global issue. As world inches closer to the real pandemic, the financial markets could become even more nervous, so we could see more safe-haven flows into the gold market.
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Sunday, March 01, 2020
Sweden Ends Its Experiment with Negative Interest Rates. Should Gold Be Worried? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
In December, the Sveriges Riksbank, the world’s oldest central bank, has raised the main interest rate from -0.25 percent back to zero, ending its experiment with the negative interest rate policy, as the chart below shows.
Chart 1: Riksbank’s repo rate from January 2010 to January 2020.
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Sunday, March 01, 2020
Gold And Stocks Are Both Headed Lower, But… / Commodities / Global Debt Crisis 2020
By: Kelsey_Williams
Gold and stocks are moving south together; but they are not correlated. Nor, are they inversely correlated, as some gold enthusiasts claim.
Reference to gold as a safe haven has some investors buying gold to hedge against a stock market crash. It is almost as if gold has become a pseudo defensive stock.
It seems investors actually expect gold’s price to go up when the stock market goes down; and vice-versa.
If that were the case, how do you explain the extended periods when both moved together; or the price action of gold relative to stocks in the past four days? Gold currently is lower in price than it was before stocks tumbled nearly 4000 points.
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Sunday, March 01, 2020
South Korea Coronavirus COVID-19 WARNING - R0 4.6 Infection Spread Rate! / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Reliable South Korean data warns of literally exponential spread of the coronavirus in the early days of outbreaks, where R0 rather than being 2 to 2.6 as being the consensus view instead South Korean data calculates R0 to 4.6! Literally explosive growth in the number of infections before a nations healthcare system is able to respond, this explosive early growth is likely as a consequence that those infected can be asymptomatic for between 3 and 7 days and a few super spreads for as many as 14 days! Who unbeknown are literally infecting dozens of people per day who themselves go onto infect several each..
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