Wednesday, March 04, 2020
US Coronavirus Infections About to Go Parabolic - Day 42 Update / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Apparently the CDC has been sending out Coronavirus test kits that don't work! So how many hundreds of infected have been roaming US streets infecting fellow citizens because the CDC is incompetent. it looks like the CDC wants to 'control' media attention on the Coronavirus than actually do their job in preventing outbreaks, much as the WHO have been shown to be little more than media whores rather do anything proactive in preventing outbreaks, an example of which is failure to halt all flight from China! That they should have done in January!.
My US trend forecast is for 13,000 infected by the end of March resulting in about 180 deaths. Though the actual number may turn out to be significantly higher because I see little sign that the US is taking the Coronavirus seriously enough, where many are still shrugging it off as being not that much worse than the flu. Instead it is at least 15 times as deadly as the flu, and depending on quality of healthcare can be 100 times as deadly!
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 04, 2020
Stock Market & Coronavirus Breakdown Metrics – Where’s The Bottom? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The end of February was brutal for traders that were not prepared for the breakdown in the US stock markets. The breakdown in price actually started on February 20th and 21st. Most traders didn’t pay attention to these minor downside price rotations in the Technology sector (NQ) and the Financial sector. The early downside price rotations in key sectors gave traders a bit of a warning that the markets were starting to shift away from the earnings-driven rally that had set up the recent peaks.
The other item that concerned the markets was the spread of the Corona Virus into Italy, Iran and other areas without known contact to areas of the virus origin. Obviously, there had to be some process of contact for the virus to spread – but there are concerns now that the virus could be active within various societies throughout the incubation period and spreading to people in densely populated cities in these areas. The idea of a “super spreader” event becomes very real if societies are not able to identify and contain the sources of these transmissions.
The fear that gripped the markets last week had been telegraphed for many weeks with the news and speculation that China and Asia were going to be hit with much weaker economic data in Q1 of 2020. Almost anyone with a bit of common sense should understand the economic complications associated with quarantining millions of people for well over 30+ days would destroy economic activity in China. Even environmental data (NASA) suggests the Chinese economic activity has collapsed in 2020.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 04, 2020
The Problem Is the Stock Market Bubble, Not the Pin / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Peter_Schiff
With the markets shell shocked by of the worst weeks on record, analysts are split on whether investors are simply overreacting to the coronavirus epidemic or if we are confronting an actual existential threat to the global economy. While most epidemiologists caution that the virus will be nearly impossible to contain, the good news is that it may be far LESS lethal than many of the contagions that we have comfortably lived with for years. When the panic and uncertainty subside, we may just end up with a new strain of influenza that will harass humanity seasonally, but will not meaningfully alter the course of global economics. But this is not really a story about a new biological disease, it's one about an old financial disease that is finally becoming symptomatic.
The truth is that the Dow at nearly 30,000 had been priced to perfection and was particularly vulnerable to any surprise "black swan" event, no matter how virulent. In this case, it's not the size of the pin that is causing the damage, but the size of the bubble the pin has pricked.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 04, 2020
UK Coronavirus Infected Numbers Going Parabolic - Day 35 Update / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The total number of infections recorded in the UK has now started to increase on a daily basis, which now include community spread that is unable to be tracked back to one of the growing outbreak hot spots across the world i.e. people who have brought the virus into the UK from China, South Korea or Italy which currently are the main transmission points for the virus.
Also I observed puzzling BBC and Channel 4 news reporting today on the case fatality rate of 3.5% only being twice as deadly as the regular flu! When 3.5% is 90 times as deadly as the flu! So it looks like the UK Government has instructed the mainstream broadcast media to start preparing the general population for a lot of Coronavirus deaths! And thus to start peddling propaganda that it is only twice as deadly as the flu! Which I will include the footage of in future videos.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 04, 2020
Gold Price Trend Forecast 2020 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is the final part of my Gold price analysis that concludes in a detailed trend forecast for 2020 that was first made available to Patrons who support my work. Gold Price Trend Forecast 2020
- Gold Price Trend Forecasts 2019 Review
- SEASONAL ANALYSIS
- QE4EVER
- US DOLLAR
- LONG-TERM TREND ANALYSIS
- Gold / SIlver Ratio
- Trend Analysis
- ELLIOT WAVES
- Gold Price Trend Forecast 2020 Conclusion
Tuesday, March 03, 2020
Coronavirus Infections OutSide China Going Parabolic - COVID-19 Pandemic Day 85 / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Taking account of the fact that China's infection numbers cannot be trusted, and that the developed worlds numbers should prove more accurate at least in the early stages of the pandemic. Though we still have two gaping black holes on the world Map i.e. Africa and Central & South America where the comings and goings of upwards of 1 million chinese workers across the continents will likely have infected many thousands of people that as was the case with China will largely remain unrecorded, but will result in a a sharp spike in the numbers of deaths at some point. Thus the primary objective of this analysis is to forecast the reported numbers of infected. In respect of which my forecast as of 12th of February concluded in expectations for the then number of 500 infected to increase to a total of approx 129,250 by the end of March 2020, as the rate of increase was expected to go parabolic during March..
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 03, 2020
Massive Reversal in Precious Metals but Fundamentals Improving / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
To underscore the volatility of this past week, consider the price action in Silver.
Silver, days ago, had a chance to make its highest monthly close since October 2016. That is well over three years ago. Silver closed the week and the month at its lowest levels in six months.
One week, precious metals (specifically gold stocks) are on the cusp of a historic breakout, and the next, they are blowing through support levels. Such can be life in this sector.
Before I get to fundamentals, let’s look at the technicals and critical levels for gold stocks.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 03, 2020
Physical Gold and Silver Are Safe Havens, Futures Are Not / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: MoneyMetals
Last week’s market activity was another reminder that not all precious metals investments are created equal.
Investors worried about a virus outbreak and watching the blood bath on Wall Street rushed to buy coins, rounds, and bars.
As one of the largest and most respected U.S. dealers, Money Metals saw the biggest surge of buying activity in years. Clients bought the physical metal as a safe haven, knowing it is scarce, intrinsically valuable and carries no counterparty risk.
Meanwhile, the opposite occurred on the COMEX because buying contracts there is anything but safe.
Tuesday, March 03, 2020
Gold Pulled Back, But Coronavirus Did Not / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
While viruses are counted among the simplest forms of life, they have quite a bearing on its advanced forms. And the coronavirus epidemic is, unfortunately, alive and well. What are the implications for the gold market?
Coronavirus Infects Europe
The coronavirus epidemic is, unfortunately, making its presence well known. Actually, it spreads quickly around the globe. The worldwide number of confirmed cases has reached almost 90,000, while the death toll has surpassed 3,000 people.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 03, 2020
Gold Trend Analysis, Elliott Waves and Silver Ratio / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Gold / SIlver Ratio
Gold price of $1560 divided of by the silver price of $18.07 results in a ratio of 86.3! The historic norm is for around 50. No I am not saying that Silver should trade to a ratio of 50 to Gold anytime soon. I will cover the prospects for the Silver price in a separate analysis.
So either Silver is CHEAP or Gold is EXPENSIVE, probably a mixture of both, which implies to expect Gold price weakness..
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 03, 2020
Everything you needed to know about investing in precious metals / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Sumeet_Manhas
Gold. Silver. Platinum. Palladium. Precious metals mined from the bowels of the earth, refined and valued for their unique characteristics.
Since the beginning of civilization itself, humanity has long held an obsession with what is known colloquially as “bling.” Nowadays rather than adorning ourselves with beads and seashells, we’ve turned to precious metal.
If one thing’s for certain, it’s that investors have always turned to precious metals in times of economic uncertainty. Whether it’s their tangible presence as hard assets or long history as a safe haven, precious metals are a great investment.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 03, 2020
As COVID-19 Rocks Markets, Uncertainty Rises in ASEAN / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: Dan_Steinbock
As the virus momentum is shifting from China to other countries, Southeast Asia faces new economic pressures and indirect collateral damage, due to outbreaks in Japan and South Korea, and inadequate international preparedness.Worldwide, the number of confirmed novel coronavirus (COVID-19) cases could exceed 100,000 in a matter of week or so. The momentum of the outbreak has shifted, however.
In early February, I predicted a turnaround in the growth rate of new virus cases in China, but acceleration internationally. That's now the new normal. Until then, the cases in China were increasing exponentially. Now the momentum is increasingly outside China. In terms of the timeline, the number of confirmed cases outside China is now about the same as it was in the Chinese mainland about a month ago (Figure).
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 03, 2020
Gold Sets Up For Another Massive Move Higher / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research team believes the recent downward price activity in Gold and Silver are indicative of past price patterns we saw in Gold over the 2007 to 2012 rally. Throughout almost every rally in precious metals (Gold), there have been a number of moderate to serious price corrections taking place within that extended rally. The current downside move is moderately small compared to historical price rotation in Gold and potentially sets up a massive upside potential rally to levels above $2100 per ounce.
Weekly Gold Price Pattern from 2007 – 2017
This chart, below, highlights the downside price rotation that took place just before and as the US stock markets collapsed in late 2008 and 2009. Notice how Gold collapsed nearly 28% right as extreme market weakness began to become present in the US stock market. Then, pay attention to how Gold rallied from $730 in multiple upside price legs to a peak just below $1900 – well above 110%. Could the same pattern already be setting up in 2020?
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 03, 2020
Coronavirus Tech Supply Chain Warning! Buy Your Gadgets, Computer Hardware and Components Now! / Personal_Finance / Pandemic
By: HGR
The world's factory China has been in lock down since early February, with factory output barely reaching 15% of capacity That has already seen tech stocks heavily reliant on Chinese factory output such as Amazon, Apple, Samsung and Nvidia take a major hit on their stock prices. And if that was not bad enough other major semi conductor production hubs such as South Korea, Taiwan and Japan starting to take a hit, that likely lag where China is today by about 5 or 6 weeks in terms of factory output.
Which means to expect an imminent supply shock as warehouse stocks start to run dry resulting in huge across the board price hikes in your favourite tech.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 02, 2020
Coronavirus Infections Going Parabolic Outside China - Pandemic Day 84 / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Whilst China's infection numbers cannot be trusted, meanwhile the developed worlds numbers should prove more accurate, at least in the early stages of the pandemic. Though we still have two gaping holes on the world Map i.e. Africa and Central & South America, to imagine that there is just 1 infection in Egypt and 1 in Brazil is delusional, given the comings and goings of upwards of 1 million chinese workers across the continents, instead the infected number in Africa and South America already likely runs into the several thousands that as of yet remain unrecorded, so expect a sharp spike in numbers at some point when the degree of infections is acknowledged.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 02, 2020
Will Stocks Keep Cutting Through Supports Like a Hot Knife Through Butter? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: P_Radomski_CFA
During the first half of yesterday’s session, the bulls were in the driving seat after repelling sellers at the open. Yet again, their gains have evaporated, and stocks not only broke to new lows, but also closed there. Will today’s session be any different?
With the sizable daily volatility, it’s well worth checking the downswing on the weekly chart (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 02, 2020
UK Coronavirus Infected Numbers Going Parabolic - Day 34 Update / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The total number of infections recorded in the UK has now started to increase on a daily basis, which now include person to person infections that are unable to be linked back to one of the growing outbreak hot spots across the world i.e. people who have brought the virus into the UK from China, South Korea or Italy which remain the main transmission points for the virus..
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 02, 2020
UK Coronavirus WARNING - All Schools, Colleges, and Universities Closed by Mid March, Outbreaks Imminent! / Politics / Pandemic
By: N_Walayat
The fact that the UK only has 36 cases does not alter the fact that the UK is still in the calm before the coronavirus storm stage as my forecast of 14th Feb 2020 concluded in the infected to trend to 5000 by the end of March resulting in 90 deaths. Analysis of what is happening in South Korea illustrates that outbreaks tend to be explosive, soon jumping from 1 to 1000 infected in a matter of days, which is likely the pattern to expect in the UK, that I am sure will prompt emergency, even panic response such as cancellation of virtually all public events, schools, universities and colleges being closed, and infected hot spots being quarantined, all likely to start taking place by Mid March, as I first warned to expect to happen over 2 weeks ago. Where Britain's school could remain closed until September!
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 02, 2020
Quit Social Media and Simplify Your Life... Like Me! / Politics / Social Media
By: Jeff_Berwick
After a crazy and busy week at Anarchapulco, I’m happy to be spending some much needed alone time in Valle de Bravo, Mexico, with the family.
As I have spent some time reading and decompressing, I thought to myself that I really need to make some serious changes in my life.
All of a sudden, the other day, the name Howard Hughes popped into my head which led me to do a quick bit of research about his life out of curiosity.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 02, 2020
Stock Market Post Bubble Contraction Finally Arrives / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Plunger
I would like to put out a quick special report to update you on the big picture in light of all of the market turmoil and provide some of the concepts which may suggest where we are going from here.
First off I you were reading these reports in the late summer of 2018 I put out a 3-part series on the Post Bubble Contraction (PBC). Well the PBC has now arrived. Of course it was virtually impossible to predict when it would finally get triggered since it was the FED fueling the bubble for as long as they could. But it appears the bubble has finally been pricked by a black swan from left field.
The below concepts you have all heard from me before, but now we see them actually unfold, so let’s review them again.
The Stock Market Top is in…But the Bear Market actually began on December 14th 2018.
December 14th, 2018, according to Dow Theory Methodology, was the date that a bear market sell signal was triggered, announcing that we were now in a bear market. This valid signal only occurs in Phase III of a bull market. Since then, despite the wild blow off top to new Dow highs the sell signal was never reversed and remained valid. To reverse the signal would require the transports going to new highs along with the Dow. Since this never occurred the signal remained in affect.
Read full article... Read full article...