Sunday, March 15, 2020

Is This A Bear Market When Stocks Crash 20% and Bonds Spike 30% / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market

By: Chris_Vermeulen

It is another blood bath in the markets with everything down, including TLT (bonds) and gold. Safe havens falling with stocks is not a good sign as people are not comfortable owning anything, even the safe havens, and this to me is a very bearish sign. 

Now, with that said, this is one day one of this type of price action and one day does not constitute a new trend or change the game, but if we start seeing more of this happen, we could be on the verge of the bear market we have all been expecting to show it ugly face.

The SP500 (SPY) is down 19.5% from the all-time high we saw just three weeks ago, and the general bias for most people is once the market is down 20% that is a new bear market. I can’t entirely agree with that general rule. Still, a lot of damage is happening to the charts. If price lingers down here or trades sideways for a few months I will see it as a new bear market consolidation before it heads lower, and we start what could be very deep market selloff and test 2100 on the SP500 index (SPY $210) for the next leg down looking forward several months.

Saturday, March 14, 2020

US Coronavirus Infections Going Parabolic Trend Forecast Update - Video / Politics / Pandemic

By: Nadeem_Walayat

So President Trump has finally stopped referring to the Coronavirus as being fake new. This week saw the US go into full blown Coronavirus panic mode, not just in response to the series of daily stock market crashes as the markets scrambled to discount a trend that I have been warning the probability of since early February. But that the US tally of infections and deaths has now started to go parabolic, which is not because of newly infected but rather that the US programme for Coronavirus has been abysmally poor that has sown the seeds for the catastrophe that is about it take place which will manifest in a Case Fatality rate far in excess of the South Korea's 0.7% , to probably nearer to 3%.

Saturday, March 14, 2020

UK Government Implements Coronavirus Herd Immunity Protocol, Plans for 1.4 Million Covid-19 Deaths / Politics / Pandemic

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The UK Governments Chief Scientific Advisor let slip the Boris Johnson Governments cunning plan to combat the Coronavirus pandemic. Apparently the plan is not to follow what every other nation is doing in attempting to contain outbreaks but instead the scientists have convinced Boris Johnson to adopt the "HERD IMMUNITY" Protocol. Which is that once at least 60% of the population has become INFECTED with the virus then they would develop an immunity and thus no longer spread the virus onto the remaining 40% or so of the population.

Friday, March 13, 2020

UK Government Adopts "Herd Immunity" Protocol, Targeting 60% Infected and Upto 2 million Deaths / Politics / Pandemic

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The UK Governments Chief Scientific Advisor let slip the Boris Johnson Governments cunning plan to combat the Coronavirus pandemic. Apparently the plan is not to follow what every other nation is doing in attempting to contain outbreaks but instead the scientists have convinced Boris Johnson to adopt the "HERD IMMUNITY" Protocol. Which is that once at least 60% of the population has become INFECTED with the virus then they would develop an immunity and thus no longer spread the virus onto the remaining 40% or so of the population.

Friday, March 13, 2020

UK Coronavirus Infected Numbers Going Parabolic - 13th March 2020 / Politics / Pandemic

By: Nadeem_Walayat

"The Coronavirus is a like a bomb that just keeps exploding" says an Italian Doctor who warns if you don't get a grip early you soon lose control.

The UK government is finally starting to take the Coronavirus seriously adopting a series of panic response such as a £30 billion Coronavirus combating spending spree, trying to inflate an economy that is teetering on the brink of Coronavirus recession as global trade and consumer activity slows sharply.

The total number of infections recorded in the UK has now started to go parabolic, exceeding my trend trajectory by 173% due to increasing community spread.

Friday, March 13, 2020

US Coronavirus Infections Going Parabolic Trend Forecast - 13th March 2020 / Politics / Pandemic

By: Nadeem_Walayat

"The Coronavirus is a like a bomb that just keeps exploding" says an Italian Doctor who warns if you don't get a grip early you soon lose control.

My US trend forecast is for 13,000 infected by the end of March resulting in about 180 deaths. Though I have often warned that the actual number will turn out to be significantly higher because of lack of US action to take the Coronavirus seriously enough, where many are still shrugging it off as being not that much worse than the flu such as President Trump. Instead at best it is at least 15 times as deadly as the flu, and depending on quality of healthcare response could be 100 times as deadly.

The latest infections data has the number of infected literally going parabolic, soaring by 351 to 1,680 to well above my trend forecast.

Friday, March 13, 2020

What's Next for Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Chris_Vermeulen

When it comes to our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system, we get asked questions from our friends and followers about how it could predict a virus event or how it could predict a price event so far out into the future.  The truth of the matter is the ADL predictive modeling system doesn’t predict unknown virus, banking or other types of events. 

What it does do, quite well we might add, is identify historically accurate price events (almost like unique DNA markers) and attempts to identify future price events that align with recent price bar (DNA) setups.  In other words, it maps the markets highest probability outcomes by studying past price activity and using a unique DNA-like mapping system.  Once this analysis is complete for any chart, we can ask it what is likely to happen in the future.

Friday, March 13, 2020

Coronavirus Infections Outside China Going Parabolic - Trend Forecast 13th March 2020 / Politics / Pandemic

By: Nadeem_Walayat

"The Coronavirus is a like a bomb that just keeps exploding" says an Italian Doctor who warns if you don't get a grip early you soon lose control.

The latest official infections data, which despite a proper record of Africa and the South Central America's numbers has the number of infected literally going parabolic, soaring by 8,400 to 54,00 to well abo ve my trend forecast that projects to an official tally of 129,250 infections outside China by 31st March 2020.

Friday, March 13, 2020

Coronavirus Impact: Financial Markets Meltdown / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020

By: Submissions

WHO declared coronavirus outbreak pandemic as confirmed cases top 124k globally. Meanwhile almost 4,600 are dead. Germany’s Merkel says 60-70% of population potentially at risk. Italy closes most stores. US has restricted non-essential travel from Europe.

Friday, March 13, 2020

What Does A Software Development Agency Do / Companies / SME

By: Sumeet_Manhas

The advancement in technology brought along the rapid expansion in the software development industry, especially in the 1970s. And today, you can find software embedded in almost everything that uses electricity.

Building software includes basic steps — from specifying the requirement and designing the program to later checking it for any issues. Some agencies aim to work on a particular aspect while others keep up with general software projects. Here's what all these software agencies like Brights.io get to work on during the development process.

Friday, March 13, 2020

5 Professional Tips to Sell Bitcoin / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Submissions

Thursday, March 12, 2020

UK and US Entering Coronavirus Pandemic Storm Stage / Politics / Pandemic

By: Nadeem_Walayat

"The Coronavirus is a like a bomb that just keeps exploding" says an Italian Doctor who warns if you don't get a grip early you soon lose control.

The UK and US continue to scramble to REACT to the unfolding Coronavirus pandemic as governments and health officials have effectively been sat on their asses for the WHOLE of February, DONE NOTHING! LEARNED NOTHING from China, LEARNED NOTHING from South Korea that I held up as a model for what the West should follow so as to prevent a catastrophic case fatality rate of as high as 3.5%! Whilst following South Korea's example offered a case fatality rate of about 0.64%, far less than China's as I covered in the following key articles and subsquent videos:

Thursday, March 12, 2020

Is This A Bear Market When Stocks Crash 20% and Bonds Spike 30% / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

It is another blood bath in the markets with everything down, including TLT (bonds) and gold. Safe havens falling with stocks is not a good sign as people are not comfortable owning anything, even the safe havens, and this to me is a very bearish sign. 

Now, with that said, this is one day one of this type of price action and one day does not constitute a new trend or change the game, but if we start seeing more of this happen, we could be on the verge of the bear market we have all been expecting to show it ugly face.

The SP500 (SPY) is down 19.5% from the all-time high we saw just three weeks ago, and the general bias for most people is once the market is down 20% that is a new bear market. I can’t entirely agree with that general rule. Still, a lot of damage is happening to the charts. If price lingers down here or trades sideways for a few months I will see it as a new bear market consolidation before it heads lower, and we start what could be very deep market selloff and test 2100 on the SP500 index (SPY $210) for the next leg down looking forward several months.

Thursday, March 12, 2020

Stock Market Elliott Wave Trend Forecast / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: EWI

Dear Reader,

Our friends at Elliott Wave International have been guiding investors through bull and bear markets since 1979. From that long experience, they know that at certain market junctures, they can help the most by giving everyone their latest analysis free.

Now is one of those market junctures.

Thursday, March 12, 2020

Markets, Mania, and Meltdown - a Brief Synopsis of the Past Month / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020

By: Andy_Sutton

The past month has been one of nearly continuous turmoil in the financial markets”. That might well be the understatement of this still fairly new century. Keep in mind that during the past 20 years, we’ve had 2 significant recessions (according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis), a complete meltdown of the .com mania, the inflation of a real-estate bubble and its subsequent bursting, the halving of US financial indexes, and the bankruptcy of names like Lehman Brothers, and AIG to name a few. Throw in a massive bailout, a fusillade of rescue programs like TARP, TSLF and the resulting blowout of the federal reserve’s balance sheet. This is within the first 10 years. Keep that in mind.

The second ten years have featured D-E-B-T – on all levels. Governments of the world, states and provinces, local municipalities and parishes, students, consumers, homeowners. In short? Pretty much everyone. That debt has driven the economy for the past decade. Globally. Many will think this is just an American problem. It’s not. Misery loves company, right? Not so fast. In this brave new world of interlocking economies and financial systems, a failure on the other side of the world can cause problems in our own back yards.

Thursday, March 12, 2020

Get The Best Guidance From A Business Consultant - Arshiya Jahanpour / Companies / SME

By: Submissions

A business consultant is an experienced professional who analyses and investigates the organisations and provides solutions for the problems. The organisation is provided with the help to make efficient plans to assist them in meeting the goals. Arshiya jahanpour, a business consultant assists you in resolving the crucial issues of your business which are faced by them. He has the knowledge and experience of her field. Your business organisation will be helped in planning, organising, strategizing and growth. The analysis is done by him so that the issues in your company can be resolved. 

Wednesday, March 11, 2020

Gold Peeks Above $1,700 amid Coronavirus Fears and Market Turmoil / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

On Sunday, Italy registered a huge jump in new cases of the COVID-19, the stock market plunged, while the oil market crashed. Tuesday morning, and Italy is on lockdown. Meanwhile, gold jumped above $1,700. What’s next for the yellow metal?

Gold Jumps Above $1,700

Last week, I wrote that:
 
from the fundamental point of view, the environment of fear, ultra low interest rates, weak equity markets and elevated stock market volatility should be positive for the yellow metal (…) the good news is that the markets expect further Fed’s interest rate cuts on the way – it lays the foundation for future gains in the gold market.

And indeed, we did not have to wait long for more gains. On Sunday, gold jumped briefly above $1,700, reaching another psychologically important level, as the chart below shows. The yellow metal made it to this price point for the first time since late 2012.

Wednesday, March 11, 2020

As Virus Stirs Panic, Financial Doomsday Scenario Looms – Are YOU Prepared? / Stock-Markets / Pandemic

By: Money_Metals

We appear to be entering the sort of scenario that doomsday preppers have been warning about for years. A pandemic is spreading death and panic around the world. Markets are crashing. Store shelves are emptying…

How long will it be before the economy grinds to a halt completely? How long will it be before the heavily leveraged financial system simply freezes up?

Emergency rate cuts by the Federal Reserve won’t necessarily keep the banks open. Central bankers won’t necessarily keep grocery stores supplied with food. And they won’t necessarily help you and your family survive the present crisis.

Wednesday, March 11, 2020

Three golden rules you must learn as a currency trader / Currencies / Forex Trading

By: Submissions

Wednesday, March 11, 2020

Coronavirus Stocks Bear Market March and April 2020 Trend Forecast - Part1 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This analysis continues from (How Deadly is the Coronavirus - Case Fatality Rate (CFR) Analysis) that seeks to conclude in a probable trend forecast for the unfolding Coronavirus stocks bear market that has caught most market participants by surprise, one where the formulaic mainstream financial press see's a bottom in EVERY BOUNCE! Well the Dow's latest plunge Friday makes a mockery of such expectations of barely a few trading days ago! For as I try and point out from time to time that technical analysis on it's own is NOT enough! Which is why I try and keep my antenna's focused on any outside market influencing factors that could drive stock prices at some point in the future where we have the usual drivers such as population growth, climate change, governments printing money that resulted in driving the Dow from a 1930's low of 40 to the recent high of 29,600. Without money printing there would be no exponential stocks bull market as the indices rotate in new rising corps and eject old dieing corps. Likewise, way back in January when most were shrugging their shoulders to "corona what?" my antenna was focused on what was taking place in Hubei China that was sending alarm bell rings despite art the time the Dow was was busy making a series of new all time highs.