In terms of the daily change in the number of infected, the UK appears to have pulled off a minor miracle as today's increase in the number of infected was substantially lower than yesterdays, only recording 152 new cases at 9am this morning against a rise of 330 yesterday. So has the UK pulled of a Coronavirus miracle? I'm afraid not because last Thursday the Government announced that it would STOP TESTING ALL THOSE INFECTED who were told to self quarantine at home and now would only be testing those who actually end up ill in hospital, which would estimate to be between 12% to 20% of those who are infected. This is AGAINST WHO recommendations of how to fight the pandemic, a message of TEST, TEST, TEST!

However, whilst the government can start pumping out fake infection numbers China style, unfortunately it cannot hide those who are dieing. Which has leapt more than 5 fold in just the past 4 days rising from total deaths of 10 on the 12th of March to 55 today! Which translates into a case fatality rate of 3.6%, up from the 1.8% that the UK had been hovering around.

UK Coronavirus Trend forecast Update

The total number of infections continues to exceed my trend forecast, now by 268%. My original forecast as of 14th Feb 2020 was for the number of infections to target a parabolic trend to 5000 by the end of March 2020. Whilst the actual trend trajectory now suggests that the UK is heading for more than 12,000 officially recorded as the number infected by the end of March.

Whilst the number of deaths at 55 now exceeds my trend forecast by 531%, which does not bode well for what is about to transpire that I am sure will spark much panic amongst the general population as this now implies that the UK could be heading for over 500 deaths by the end of March 2020!

And if that was not bad enough the Governments declared intension is to induce herd immunity in the general population by means of infecting 60% of the population ensures that things will get far worse during April and May, as the UK now looks set to experience a death toll far greater than that of the 2100 where Italy currently stands, greater even then the tally for the whole of China's 3,213 deaths! That will be the consequences of implementing the Herd Immunity Protocol primarily through infecting Britains school children who go on to infect their parents, the assumption being that children don't tend to die from the Coronavirus and most of the parents are likely to be fit and healthy and thus most 'should' survive as illustrated by my following video -

Should You Send Your Child to School?

As long as you aware aware that the governments objective is to get your child and you as their parents infected so as to achieve 60% herd immunity!

So if you or your child have ANY health concerns, weakness in terms of immunity i.e. maybe you used to be a smoker, then you should NOT GAMBLE WITH YOUR LIVES AND SO STOP SENDING YOUR CHILDREN TO SCHOOL!

Thus the UK has been giving advice to the elderly and weak to self quarantine themselves for the next 3 months as the virus is encouraged to rage through the general population towards the stated goal of achieving herd immunity that undoubtedly will cost many tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands of lives if the mad scientists advising the UK government have their way!

CoronaVirus Stocks Bear Market Trend Forecast Implications

Today was another blood bath in the stock market. However, analysis in my Coronavirus stocks bear market series has first been made available to Patrons who support my work. UK and US Entering Coronavirus Pandemic Storm Stage Triggering Market Panic Drops

So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

And ensure you are subscribed to my ALWAYS FREE newsletter for my next in-depth analysis.

Your Analyst

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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