Saturday, March 07, 2020

Think the Fed's Emergency Interest Rate Cut is Proactive? Think Again / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: EWI

You might think that the Fed's recent, unscheduled 50 basis-point cut in the federal funds rate is a proactive move that places the central bank at the vanguard of revolutionary uses of monetary policy. But that could hardly be further from the truth.

For decades at Elliott Wave International, we've observed that the Fed simply follows the yield on short-term government debt. We say that "the Fed follows the market" because the freely traded bond market determines the yield on government debt. The yield on short-term U.S. Treasuries started falling in earnest in February, and in March the Fed aligned its target rate with the trend of the market. There's nothing radical or revolutionary about it. The Fed merely followed the market yet again. This chart shows the recent history.

Friday, March 06, 2020

Gold Is the Strongest Currency Since the Coronavirus Scare / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

Another tumultuous week in equity and interest rate markets has helped fuel a big pop in safe-haven demand for gold and silver.

The major market moving event was, of course, the Federal Reserve’s emergency rate cut on Tuesday. The Fed slashed its overnight funds rate by 50 basis points. But even before the Fed acted, the bond market had already forced its hand as yields on the 10-year Treasury note plunged to record low levels.

By Friday morning, the 10-year treasury yielded less than a paltry 0.90%. That represents almost no reward in exchange for the risk involved. Bond buyers are apparently willing to make a decade-long bet on U.S. government finances remaining solid and inflation remaining extremely low.

It’s still possible for bonds to experience capital appreciation if rates ultimately head to zero or below – as they have already done in other parts of the world. The Fed is almost certain to cut rates again. There is a good chance at least some portion of the yield curve will be at zero later in the year.

Friday, March 06, 2020

How Deadly is the Coronavirus - Case Fatality Rate (CFR) Analysis / Politics / Pandemic

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is part 1 of 2 of my latest analysis that seeks to convert the unfolding Coronavirus Pandemic into a stock market trend forecast, a pandemic that increasingly looks likely to be the worst the world has faced since the 1918 Spanish flu that killed an estimated 10% of the world's population. Thankfully, so far this virus looks set kill less than 1/10th that of the Spanish flu, still extremely deadly that the markets are NOT fully discounting the consequences of and that the virus could mutate into an even deadlier strain that it has already done at least once to date ( S type into L type).

Just how deadly is the Coronavirus? For the answer to that we look to the case fatality rate across a number of infected countries with differing capabilities in their ability to test for infections and then to compare against the conclusion of my analysis of 21st February that took into account serious under reporting in the numbers infected in China, probably to a magnitude of at least X7 that concluded in a probable Coronavirus case fatality rate of 0.64% which if accurate would make the Covid-19 about 15 times as deadly as the seasonal flu.

Friday, March 06, 2020

US Fed Panics – Stock Market Predictive Modeling Shows You What’s Next / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

March 3, 2020: the US Fed issued an emergency rate cut of 0.50% to move rates to levels near 1.0% as a result of global economic concerns related to the spread of the Coronavirus and the potential damage it may do to the global major economies.  President Trump had been suggesting the US Fed needed to be ahead of the risks associated with future market expectations to allow for increased liquidity and global economic function.  Yet, we believe this move by the US Fed came at the wrong time for most investors and traders.

The global markets had already begun a process of revaluing risk in the markets near the end of February 2020.  After the Q1 earnings data was digested and the newest Chinese data became available, investors suddenly understood the risks that we had been warning about for most of January and February.  Suddenly, the US markets collapsed and traders were revaluing forward expectations.

Friday, March 06, 2020

Fed Panics over Coronavirus. What’s Next for Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Yesterday, the Fed cut interest rates by 50 basis points. Not during a regular monetary policy meeting, but in a surprising move. But what are the implications for the gold market specifically?

Fed Cuts Interest Rates in Emergency Move

Last week, I wrote that the spread of the new coronavirus to Europe and the inversion of the yield curve make “the Fed more likely to step in and cut the federal funds rate, you know, “just in case”. And in yesterday’s surprise move, the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 50 basis points in response to the coronavirus threat. The decision was unanimous and it was communicated in the FOMC statement as follows:

Thursday, March 05, 2020

Fed Coronavirus Reaction Was Not What Most Expected / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020

By: Avi_Gilburt

Early Tuesday morning, I put out an update to our members of ElliottWaveTrader.net that noted that the 3135 region as the top of our resistance region, which can point us lower once struck.

Now, we all know that the “surprise” rate cut by the Fed should have been viewed as a positive to the market. In fact, most expected the Fed to act soon, and were certain how this would send the market soaring again.

However, I continue to reiterate that when the market is in a positive sentiment trend, the Fed action will always be viewed as positive. Yet, when the market is in a negative sentiment trend, the Fed will not likely be able to stem the tide of negative sentiment. They simply cannot change the sentiment of the market, despite the common misconception to the contrary.

Thursday, March 05, 2020

See Market Opportunities in the Coronavirus Chaos - Here's How / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: EWI

Dear Reader,

The Fed has cut rates, but stocks barely noticed. And you may be getting particularly worried right now.

Our friends at Elliott Wave International would like to help -- free.

Their research shows that -- contrary to what everyone else thinks right now -- China's recent epidemic outbreaks have marked market bottoms, not tops.

In fact, they've just put together a free, on-demand webinar "Coronavirus: Opportunities in the Chaos" shows you the full evidence.

Thursday, March 05, 2020

Will the Worst of Times for Central Bankers Lead to the Best of Times for Precious Metals? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

During turbulent times like these, markets can be melting down one day… and zooming higher the next. Gold may serve as a fantastic safe-haven asset one day… but get hammered by futures traders the next.

The news cycle can be just as volatile. One report may show the coronavirus is receding in China, while another may raise alarms about its spread in other parts of the world.

One poll may show a socialist candidate for President on the rise, while another may show Americans overwhelmingly approve of President Donald Trump’s handling of the economy.

Thursday, March 05, 2020

Gold: Learn from the Actions of the "Smartest on Wall Street" / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: EWI

Deep-pocketed speculators miss the big turns -- but you don't have to

Hedge fund managers are considered to be among the smartest people on Wall Street.

Ironically, as a group, they're notorious for consistently being on the wrong side of major turns in the markets they trade. By contrast, a group of insiders called Commercials are generally on the right side of major market turns.

Thursday, March 05, 2020

How Much More Can the Stock Bulls Add to Their Gains? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Stocks opened on a strong note yesterday, and the bulls have been adding to their gains throughout the day. Forcing a close above the nearest resistance, does it mark the end of selling? In other words, have we seen a lasting turnaround?

Let’s check the weekly chart for whether the current price action fits the bullish interpretation (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

Thursday, March 05, 2020

Coronavirus Pandemic Going Parabolic, US and UK COVID19 Infections Forecasts / Politics / Pandemic

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The latest infections data for the world excluding China, which despite a proper record of Africa and the South Central America's numbers has the number of infected literally going parabolic, soaring by over 1735 overnight to 10,298 to well above my trend forecast that projects to an official tally of 129,250 infections outside China by the end of March 2020.

Thursday, March 05, 2020

UK Coronavirus Pandemic Going Parabolic! Infections Forecast - Video / Politics / Pandemic

By: N_Walayat

The total number of infections recorded in the UK has now started to increase on a daily basis, which now include community spread that is unable to be tracked back to one of the growing outbreak hot spots across the world i.e. people who have brought the virus into the UK from China, South Korea or Italy which currently are the main transmission points for the virus.

Also I observed puzzling BBC and Channel 4 news reporting today on the case fatality rate of 3.5% only being twice as deadly as the regular flu! When 3.5% is 90 times as deadly as the flu! So it looks like the UK Government has instructed the mainstream broadcast media to start preparing the general population for a lot of Coronavirus deaths! And thus to start peddling propaganda that it is only twice as deadly as the flu! Which I will include the footage of in future videos.

Wednesday, March 04, 2020

US Coronavirus Infections About to Go Parabolic - Day 42 Update / Politics / Pandemic

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Apparently the CDC has been sending out Coronavirus test kits that don't work! So how many hundreds of infected have been roaming US streets infecting fellow citizens because the CDC is incompetent. it looks like the CDC wants to 'control' media attention on the Coronavirus than actually do their job in preventing outbreaks, much as the WHO have been shown to be little more than media whores rather do anything proactive in preventing outbreaks, an example of which is failure to halt all flight from China! That they should have done in January!.

My US trend forecast is for 13,000 infected by the end of March resulting in about 180 deaths. Though the actual number may turn out to be significantly higher because I see little sign that the US is taking the Coronavirus seriously enough, where many are still shrugging it off as being not that much worse than the flu. Instead it is at least 15 times as deadly as the flu, and depending on quality of healthcare can be 100 times as deadly!

Wednesday, March 04, 2020

Stock Market & Coronavirus Breakdown Metrics – Where’s The Bottom? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The end of February was brutal for traders that were not prepared for the breakdown in the US stock markets.  The breakdown in price actually started on February 20th and 21st.  Most traders didn’t pay attention to these minor downside price rotations in the Technology sector (NQ) and the Financial sector.  The early downside price rotations in key sectors gave traders a bit of a warning that the markets were starting to shift away from the earnings-driven rally that had set up the recent peaks.

The other item that concerned the markets was the spread of the Corona Virus into Italy, Iran and other areas without known contact to areas of the virus origin.  Obviously, there had to be some process of contact for the virus to spread – but there are concerns now that the virus could be active within various societies throughout the incubation period and spreading to people in densely populated cities in these areas.  The idea of a “super spreader” event becomes very real if societies are not able to identify and contain the sources of these transmissions.

The fear that gripped the markets last week had been telegraphed for many weeks with the news and speculation that China and Asia were going to be hit with much weaker economic data in Q1 of 2020.  Almost anyone with a bit of common sense should understand the economic complications associated with quarantining millions of people for well over 30+ days would destroy economic activity in China. Even environmental data (NASA) suggests the Chinese economic activity has collapsed in 2020.

Wednesday, March 04, 2020

The Problem Is the Stock Market Bubble, Not the Pin / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Peter_Schiff

With the markets shell shocked by of the worst weeks on record, analysts are split on whether investors are simply overreacting to the coronavirus epidemic or if we are confronting an actual existential threat to the global economy. While most epidemiologists caution that the virus will be nearly impossible to contain, the good news is that it may be far LESS lethal than many of the contagions that we have comfortably lived with for years. When the panic and uncertainty subside, we may just end up with a new strain of influenza that will harass humanity seasonally, but will not meaningfully alter the course of global economics. But this is not really a story about a new biological disease, it's one about an old financial disease that is finally becoming symptomatic.

The truth is that the Dow at nearly 30,000 had been priced to perfection and was particularly vulnerable to any surprise "black swan" event, no matter how virulent. In this case, it's not the size of the pin that is causing the damage, but the size of the bubble the pin has pricked.

Wednesday, March 04, 2020

UK Coronavirus Infected Numbers Going Parabolic - Day 35 Update / Politics / Pandemic

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The total number of infections recorded in the UK has now started to increase on a daily basis, which now include community spread that is unable to be tracked back to one of the growing outbreak hot spots across the world i.e. people who have brought the virus into the UK from China, South Korea or Italy which currently are the main transmission points for the virus.

Also I observed puzzling BBC and Channel 4 news reporting today on the case fatality rate of 3.5% only being twice as deadly as the regular flu! When 3.5% is 90 times as deadly as the flu! So it looks like the UK Government has instructed the mainstream broadcast media to start preparing the general population for a lot of Coronavirus deaths! And thus to start peddling propaganda that it is only twice as deadly as the flu! Which I will include the footage of in future videos.

Wednesday, March 04, 2020

Gold Price Trend Forecast 2020 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is the final part of my Gold price analysis that concludes in a detailed trend forecast for 2020 that was first made available to Patrons who support my work. Gold Price Trend Forecast 2020

• Gold Price Trend Forecasts 2019 Review
• SEASONAL ANALYSIS
• QE4EVER
• US DOLLAR
• LONG-TERM TREND ANALYSIS 
• Gold / SIlver Ratio
• Trend Analysis 
• ELLIOT WAVES
• Gold Price Trend Forecast 2020 Conclusion 

Tuesday, March 03, 2020

Coronavirus Infections OutSide China Going Parabolic - COVID-19 Pandemic Day 85 / Politics / Pandemic

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Taking account of the fact that China's infection numbers cannot be trusted, and that the developed worlds numbers should prove more accurate at least in the early stages of the pandemic. Though we still have two gaping black holes on the world Map i.e. Africa and Central & South America where the comings and goings of upwards of 1 million chinese workers across the continents will likely have infected many thousands of people that as was the case with China will largely remain unrecorded, but will result in a a sharp spike in the numbers of deaths at some point. Thus the primary objective of this analysis is to forecast the reported numbers of infected. In respect of which my forecast as of 12th of February concluded in expectations for the then number of 500 infected to increase to a total of approx 129,250 by the end of March 2020, as the rate of increase was expected to go parabolic during March..

Tuesday, March 03, 2020

Massive Reversal in Precious Metals but Fundamentals Improving / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

To underscore the volatility of this past week, consider the price action in Silver. 

Silver, days ago, had a chance to make its highest monthly close since October 2016. That is well over three years ago. Silver closed the week and the month at its lowest levels in six months.

One week, precious metals (specifically gold stocks) are on the cusp of a historic breakout, and the next, they are blowing through support levels. Such can be life in this sector.

Before I get to fundamentals, let’s look at the technicals and critical levels for gold stocks.

Tuesday, March 03, 2020

Physical Gold and Silver Are Safe Havens, Futures Are Not / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

Last week’s market activity was another reminder that not all precious metals investments are created equal.

Investors worried about a virus outbreak and watching the blood bath on Wall Street rushed to buy coins, rounds, and bars.

As one of the largest and most respected U.S. dealers, Money Metals saw the biggest surge of buying activity in years. Clients bought the physical metal as a safe haven, knowing it is scarce, intrinsically valuable and carries no counterparty risk.

Meanwhile, the opposite occurred on the COMEX because buying contracts there is anything but safe.