Wednesday, March 11, 2020
Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Will Vitamin D and Vitamin C Protect & Prevent Infection? / Personal_Finance / Health and Fitness
By: N_Walayat
While there are several different things that can be done to help prevent contamination spread , such as wearing Personal Protection Equipment (PPE), like a ParticleMax P3 Virus Filter in combination with a Gas Mask (e.g., MIRA Safety CM-6M), it is also good to ensure that your body’s immune system is boosted to help fight off an infection. Immune system supplements ensure that you have no compromising vitamin deficiencies in your immune system function. The following video will list out my Top immune system supplements for helping fight off a virus from infecting your body such as Vitamin D and then to help youy body fight of infections such as Vitamin C.
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Wednesday, March 11, 2020
The Fed’s Baffling Response to the Coronavirus Explained / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: Ellen_Brown
When the World Health Organization announced on Feb. 24 that it was time to prepare for a global pandemic, the stock market plummeted. Over the following week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by more than 3,500 points, or 10%. In an attempt to contain the damage, the Federal Reserve on March 3 slashed the fed funds rate from 1.5% to 1.0%, in its first emergency rate move and biggest one-time cut since the 2008 financial crisis. But rather than reassuring investors, the move fueled another panic sell-off.
Exasperated commentators on CNBC wondered what the Fed was thinking. They said a half-point rate cut would not stop the spread of the coronavirus or fix the broken Chinese supply chains that are driving U.S. companies to the brink. A new report by corporate data analytics firm Dun & Bradstreet calculates that some 51,000 companies around the world have one or more direct suppliers in Wuhan, the epicenter of the virus. At least 5 million companies globally have one or more tier-two suppliers in the region, meaning that their suppliers get their supplies there; and 938 of the Fortune 1,000 companies have tier-one or tier-two suppliers there. Moreover, fully 80% of U.S. pharmaceuticals are made in China. A break in the supply chain can grind businesses to a halt.
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Wednesday, March 11, 2020
Gold to Silver Ratio Hits 100! / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Gold is testing its previous 2020 highs, but silver plunged anyway, which created a very special situation. Namely, the gold to silver ratio just jumped to the 100 level.
This may not seem like a big deal, because ultimately people buy metals, not their ratio, but it actually is a huge deal. This ratio is observed by investors and traders alike, as it tends to peak at the market extremes. Moving to the 100 level might indicate that we are at a price extreme. But what kind of extreme would that be if silver is declining while gold moved up?
Let’s take a closer look at the gold to silver ratio chart for details.
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Wednesday, March 11, 2020
Silver Loses Its Mettle – Part 2 (Technicals) / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Kelsey_Williams
Last week I talked about unrealistic expectations for the price of silver (see Silver Loses Its Mettle). My comments were centered on two specific factors: 1) silver’s primary role as an industrial commodity and 2) the fallacy of the gold-to-silver ratio.
Both of these items have their root in fundamentals, or lack of them.
In addition, I pointed out the fact that the price of silver has declined significantly in every single recession of the past fifty years.
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Wednesday, March 11, 2020
The DSI Says Gold and Bonds Are About to Tank / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: The_Gold_Report
Bob Moriarty of 321gold explains why he believes gold needs a correction.
In military aviation pilots are taught about an important concept called being on the Back Side of the Power Curve. For every aircraft and altitude there is a speed and power curve. Until the aircraft gets too slow things work just fine. A lot like the Fed. But when the aircraft flies too slow and drag gets too high, the addition of more power makes the situation worse. The aircraft stalls no matter how much power the pilot applies. A lot like the Fed.
On Tuesday the 3rd of March the Fed surprised the market with a 50 basis point drop in interest rates. The move was intended to reassure the market that the Fed had things under control. The market in turn surprised the Fed by doing the opposite of what those investing using the rear view mirror believed.
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Tuesday, March 10, 2020
Key Support Levels for the S&P 500, Dow and TSX / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Donald_W_Dony
The market sell-off continues to build as many investors believe more downside slippage is coming. Sells in mutual funds and individual stock portfolios, as reported, are reaching highs not seen since 2015.
Yet, many institutions are now positioning trades for the inevitable rebound.
The Commitment of Traders (COT) are showing a build-up of positions at certain key levels.
For the S&P 500, 2740 appears to be a mark where positions are being established. For the Dow, 23,500 and for the TSX,14,675 are being tested (Chart 1).
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Tuesday, March 10, 2020
Before Stock Market Sell-Off, This Indicator Posted Its "Largest 1-Day Jump" in 10 Years / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: EWI
A revealing perspective on the stock market… and the "unexpected"
Most investors are surprised when a big trend turn occurs in the stock market.
A big reason why is because most market participants tend to linearly extrapolate the current trend into the future. Indeed, instead of getting cautious as a trend persists, they tend to do the opposite and ramp up their expectations. This applies during both down- and uptrends.
Let's first look at an example when the stock market had been in a major downtrend. As you'll recall, the market's last major bottom occurred in March 2009. The then bear market had been going on for 17 months.
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Tuesday, March 10, 2020
Fed's Real Mandate: Ever Expanding Asset Bubbles / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: Michael_Pento
Wall Street hit a new all-time high on February 20th. It was supposed to be smooth sailing from there, riding along the global liquidity wave. But then, that wave crashed into what turned out to be the fastest correction from a new high in the history of the US stock market. Even though the fall was mild in comparison to the record-breaking bull run of the past few years, it was enough to frighten central planners to the core. Hence, we had further confirmation on Tuesday, March 3rd of what we already knew: our central bank has been fully corrupted and co-opted by Wall Street.The Fed lowered rates by 50bps in an emergency meeting, even though its regularly scheduled meeting was just two weeks away--maybe Trump will now give Powell the Presidential Medal of Freedom. But someone should have informed the White House and the Fed that the 4th rate cut in a rate-cutting cycle has nearly always led to market panics. But to be clear, the only reason the Fed cut rates is that the stock market suffered a brief correction. It wasn't a bear market or a recession. It wasn't even runaway deflation or an outright recession scare, …but just an 8% fall in stock prices from an all-time bubble high at the time of its decision.
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Tuesday, March 10, 2020
Two Scenarios for Precious Metals in the Unfolding Cronavirus Crisis / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: MoneyMetals
Extreme volatility in the equity markets has investors wondering what to expect. Even the hardiest of stock market bulls are finally asking some serious questions about whether the top is in.
Stocks have long been priced for perfection and suddenly conditions are looking far from perfect. The coronavirus may be the pin which pricks the latest Fed-blown bubble.
Precious metals investors have been preparing against a rainy day. They may be less surprised by the turmoil in markets over the past couple of weeks. But there are still big questions about how metals prices might behave, especially if the current turmoil in markets should evolve into a full-blown financial crisis.
Tuesday, March 10, 2020
Gold Hedging the Decline and Fall of a Currency / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Michael_J_Kosares
The baseline case for gold 320 AD
We sometimes forget that inflation is a process rather than an event. One of the better-known examples of that axiom is the nearly two centuries-long debasement of Rome’s silver denarius – an inflationary episode Jack Whyte, a writer of historical fiction, skillfully addresses in his latest novel, The Burning Stone.
Set in Great Britain in the fourth century AD during the Roman occupation, The Burning Stone is a prequel to Whyte’s engaging, seven-book series on King Arthur – The Camulod Chronicles. Throughout the series, Whyte juxtaposes the rise of Arthur’s Camelot against Rome’s decline. This particular story is told through the lens of a young Roman from a wealthy family with banking, political and military interests who flees to Britain after his immediate family is murdered for reasons that remain a mystery for most of the novel.
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Tuesday, March 10, 2020
VITAMIN D3 Could Save Your Life! Coronavirus Pandemic Protection & COVID-19 Illness Mitigation / Personal_Finance / Health and Fitness
By: N_Walayat
There are several medical studies such as reported by the BMJ that demonstrate that supplementing with Vitamin D helps protect against respiratory tract infections whether their bacterial or viral.
Which means Vitamin D could
a. Stop you from becoming infected.
b. If infected have a far milder illness
c. And if you are unlukcy to have severe illness, then Vitamin D supp,entation now could make the difference between recovery and death!
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Monday, March 09, 2020
Energy Complex Deflation Was All in the Charts / Commodities / Energy Resources
By: Rambus_Chartology
I promised you on Friday that I would take an in-depth look at the energy complex in the Weekend Report. If there is one sector to define the possible deflationary event we’ve been discussing for the last several months or so oil is probably the most important commodity of all. Eventually we’ll know the cause in no uncertain terms, but the charts have been suggesting for a long time now that something is afoot and we need to pay attention.
Lets start by looking at the UNG, natural gas fund, as it has been leading the way lower. This first chart is a 10 month daily look which shows a 6 point diamond consolidation pattern which at the time of its development I thought would probably be a reversal pattern to the upside as the price for natural gas was already so low. As you know I usually try to take one position on the initial breakout and a second position on the backtest. I missed the initial breakout and the backtest failed to reach the bottom rail of the diamond so I never got positioned. The other important feature on this chart is the blue bearish falling wedge which we know shows up in fast moving impulse moves.
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Monday, March 09, 2020
Is The Stocks Bull Market Over? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: Uptrend from the 2009 low continues.
SPX Intermediate trend: Intermediate correction underway
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily-basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
Daily market analysis of the short-term trend is reserved for subscribers. If you would like to sign up for a FREE 4-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at anvi1962@cableone.net
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Monday, March 09, 2020
A Battle Of Titans: The Coronavirus Versus The Fed / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: Dan_Amerman
There is a potential global tragedy that is unfolding in terms of the coronavirus epidemic, that may be on the verge of becoming a global pandemic. We simply don't know - nobody knows - at this stage what the eventual impact and number of mortalities will be in the United States and in the rest of the world.
What we do know is that the global supply chain is getting hit very hard. There are many economists who believe that we are potentially on the verge of what could be called a coronavirus recession where a shutdown of the supply out of China, ripples through shutdowns in Japan and South Korea (among many other nations), which combine to hit the US and European economies with a supply side shock.
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Monday, March 09, 2020
Coronavirus Dow Stocks Bear Market Trend Forecast Update - Part1 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This analysis continues from (How Deadly is the Coronavirus - Case Fatality Rate (CFR) Analysis) that seeks to conclude in a probable trend forecast for the unfolding Coronavirus stocks bear market that has caught most market participants by surprise, one where the formulaic mainstream financial press see's a bottom in EVERY BOUNCE! Well the Dow's latest plunge Friday makes a mockery of such expectations of barely a few trading days ago! For as I try and point out from time to time that technical analysis on it's own is NOT enough! Which is why I try and keep my antenna's focused on any outside market influencing factors that could drive stock prices at some point in the future where we have the usual drivers such as population growth, climate change, governments printing money that resulted in driving the Dow from a 1930's low of 40 to the recent high of 29,600. Without money printing there would be no exponential stocks bull market as the indices rotate in new rising corps and eject old dieing corps. Likewise, way back in January when most were shrugging their shoulders to "corona what?" my antenna was focused on what was taking place in Hubei China that was sending alarm bell rings despite art the time the Dow was was busy making a series of new all time highs.
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Monday, March 09, 2020
Market Fear Reaches A Level Seen Only 4 Times Since 2008 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Since 2009 the stock market has had for major waves of investor fear (volatility) take place which was in 2010, 2011, 2015, and 2018. Each time the market corrected we saw a drop anywhere from 12% – 18% and both traders and investors became emotional and started selling assets in fear of lower prices. What we are experiencing right now is the same sort of setup once again.
These waves of panic selling are a signature pattern of a mini-crash and they have similar outcomes each time which I will share with you here so you know what to expect and how to trade this rare market condition.
It takes a lot to convince the masses to reach this level of fear. Each of these mini-market crashes there has been some catalysts to further induce fear/selling. This time its Covid-19 that is tipping the scales.
Only two assets have acted as a safe haven which is bonds, and gold. Once again everyone has been piling into these over the past week, and even more so on Friday with Bonds surging 6.5% at one point during the session.
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Monday, March 09, 2020
Have We Seen The Peak In The Stock Market VIX? / Stock-Markets / Volatility
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The recent price breakdown in the US stock market (near the end of February 2020) prompted a very big spike in the VIX – could we see another HUGE spike with a deeper price selloff in the near future?
Our researchers believe this first downside price rotation in the US stock market may be just the first downside move in what may become a “waterfall” price event where price declines in a series of downside price waves reaching an ultimate support level. The way the VIX works is to attempt to normalize implied volatility based on available options call and put data over a 30-day span. The process of normalizing this data attempt to eradicate outlier data from the equation. Thus, a VIX level of 40 has likely resulted in completed data that attempts to eliminate outlier data points that may have resulted in a much higher VIX value.
After this recent rally in the VIX level, the current normalization process will likely take the current range of the VIX (options data) into consideration for future VIX levels. Thus, in order for the VIX to reach levels above 40 again, a much bigger downside price move would have to take place – possibly pushing the SPY to levels near $260 or lower. A move like this would have to happen in an aggressive type of price decline in order for the VIX to rally back above 40. Is this something we should expect in the near future?
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Sunday, March 08, 2020
Dow Stock Market Crash Watch / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: readtheticker
This is now on the table. Let us review three prior Dow volatility shocks. But first let us remind you of the Sabbatical Cycle (previous post Shemitah Study) Re post of the 7 year cycle chart below. Take 2015 add on 7 equals 2022, which suggests if a bear market does a occur a low maybe found in 2022. In 2015 we had a 12% sell off just prior to the 2016 US elections.
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Sunday, March 08, 2020
Coronavirus Infects US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Richard_Mills
Up to a month ago the US dollar was showing resilience in the face of a slowdown in the global economy evidenced by anemic growth. As central banks including the US Federal Reserve reacted by lowering interest rates, it looked as though strength in the US economy (stock market bull, 50-year-low unemployment, etc.) would see the States through the downturn, especially since US Treasury yields were that much higher than those of competing bonds such as the German “bund”.
All that has changed with the coronavirus.
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Sunday, March 08, 2020
Iran Is Not Hyperinflating / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Steve_H_Hanke
Each and every day we read that Iran is hyperinflating or about to hyperinflate. The same is written about Zimbabwe and Venezuela, as well as a potpourri of other countries that are experiencing inflation flare-ups. While Iran came close to hyperinflating in the fall of 2012, it has never experienced an episode of hyperinflation. And while Zimbabwe experienced episodes of hyperinflation in 2007–08 and in 2017, it is not experiencing one now. At present, Venezuela is the only country experiencing hyperinflation.
It’s clear that journalists and those they interview tend to play fast and loose with the word “hyperinflation.” To clean up the hyperinflation landscape, we must define the word. So, just what is the definition of the oft-misused word “hyperinflation?” The convention adopted in the scientific literature is to classify an inflation as a hyperinflation if the monthly inflation rate exceeds 50 percent. This definition was adopted in 1956, after Phillip Cagan published his seminal analysis of hyperinflation, which appeared in a book edited by Milton Friedman, Studies in the Quantity Theory of Money.
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