Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, January 10, 2008
Central Banks Facing Stagflation - Bullish Gold, Currencies and Crude Oil / Economics / Inflation
By: Christopher_Laird
One of the main reasons gold is rising so much now is because central banks are facing stagflationary forces. Stagflation is a combination of economic stagnation with inflation. Central banks find it hard to lower interest rates because of inflation, and economic stagnation causes them to want to lower interest rates. This is very gold and oil bullish.
Many of the causes of gold's rise in the late 70's and 1980 are with us today. But let's first define stagflation:
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Thursday, January 10, 2008
The Coming Economic Depression & Christmas On Threadneedle Street / Economics / Global Financial System
By: Darryl_R_Schoon
The address of the Bank of England is Threadneedle Street , EC2 London. Martha and I could not have been closer. On Christmas day, we were at the Threadneedles Hotel at 5 Threadneedle Street . But proximity to the Bank of England is measured not by distance but by influence. Those closest to the Bank of England are the moneylenders.
England 's reign as a world power actually began on Threadneedle Street . Then, no bank had its own building and bankers were but goldsmiths who lent money and rented space to do business. But after the moneylenders cut their bargain (and it was a bargain) with King William of England , things were never to be the same, either for England or the moneylenders—or the world.
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Thursday, January 10, 2008
US Recession Will Ultimately be More Severe than Current Forecasts / Economics / Recession
By: Bob_Bronson
Despite permabull hype, as reflected especially by many of Larry Kudlow's guests on CNBC, the second revision in 3Q GDP neither obviated nor postponed the persistently developing -- and very predictable -- recession.
Our stock market and economic cycle template, or SMECT model clearly illustrates the "perfect storm" of several business and economic cycles contracting simultaneously and suggesting, well in advance, that the oncoming recession will be more severe than average
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Wednesday, January 09, 2008
The Economy & The Fat Kid / Economics / US Economy
By: Darryl_R_Schoon
Credit-based economies constantly need to expand in order to service constantly increasing levels of debt. Central banks adjust the flow of credit to maintain the balance between economic expansion and economic contraction.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 09, 2008
EuroZone Runaway Credit Inflation Feeds Gold Euro's Bull Market / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Adrian_Ash
"...Who suffers most from inflation? Who suffers most from rising prices? It's the poor, not the rich. The rich can protect themselves from inflation. Poor people can't..." - Jean-Claude Trichet, head of the European Central Bank (ECB)
THE FINANCIAL TIMES just chose Jean-Claude Trichet – head of the European Central Bank (ECB) – as its "Person of the Year, 2007".
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Monday, January 07, 2008
The Great Depression - 2008 Forecasters Still Getting it Wrong / Economics / Recession
By: Gerard_Jackson
As the Australian and US booms rolls on some 'forecaster', particularly on the net, are once again drawing historical analogies, warning that we risk a financial collapse that could bring on a depression every bit as bad as the 1930s. These forecasters know as much about the Great Depression as I do about brain surgery. Unfortunately, journalists' ignorance of economic history is massive. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 07, 2008
NO Economic Decoupling Instead Greater Interdependence - 2008: The Year of Reckoning ? / Economics / Global Financial System
By: Brent_Harmes
What lies dead ahead for our economy.- The main stream press is finally waking up to the economic realities that are starting to affect us here and now. The January 7, 2008 Forbes magazine has an article by Ernest Zedillo, (former President of Mexico and current Director of The Yale Center for the study of Globalization) titled, 2008: Year of Reckoning . This article is written by a very studied and intelligent man that has seen first hand the effects of currency and borrowing problems. He sees major problems dead ahead for the global economy and I think he absolutely hits the nail on the head with his analysis. Here are a few quotes from that article along with my comments: Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 07, 2008
Sovereign Wealth Funds - Saviours or Harbingers of Economic Apocalypse? / Economics / Sovereign Wealth Funds
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Mega Picture - Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWF's) are being hailed as the saviours of the financial world, but in reality are more akin to harbingers of the economic apocalypse for countries such as the United States and United Kingdom.
The SWF's have been stepping in of late with tens of billions in financing and investments into the cash starved US banking and finance sector with financial institutions such as Citicorp selling off large chunks every other week to funds such as that to the Abu Dhabi SWF at 4.9% of the company for $7.5bn on a fixed yield of 11%, the terms are far more favourable than offered to domestic investors. Most recent speculation is that
Rio Tinto maybe inline for a chinese SWF bid of as much as $150 billion.
Saturday, January 05, 2008
US Economy Forecast 2008 - First Recession then Recovery / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
In this issue:
Forecast 2008: Recession and Recovery
18,000 Jobs? Not Really.
Housing: Going Down, Down, Down
Who's Got My Credit Default Swap Back?
Counterparty Risk is the Real Sleeper Issue
The Fed: Too Little, Too Late
Europe, Santa Barbara, China, and The Motley Fool
It's that time of year, when I throw caution to the wind and present my annual forecast issue. Jumping to the conclusion, I think a recession has begun, so the relevant question is to ask when the recovery will begin. We will look at the housing market, the continued implosion of the credit markets, and the deteriorating employment picture. Will the Fed worry more about employment and recession or about the very real inflation pressures? Oil? Gold? Which way the dollar? I am going to make some unusual calls, as well as highlight what I think will be the next looming problem in the growing credit crisis. We'll try to cover it all in just a few pages.
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Saturday, January 05, 2008
BIG BEN - US Fed Inflation Slight of Hand / Economics / Inflation
By: David_Petch
Big Ben is the largest standing four faced chiming clock in the world and is known for its remarkable accuracy due in part to Edmond Beckett Denison who invented the double three-legged gravity escapement added to the original mechanism. The mechanism was created in advance of completing the masonry and final tower assembly, which is where Edmond found spare time for his improvement. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 05, 2008
Fundamentals of Growing Public Debt a Big Negative for US Equities / Economics / US Debt
By: Brian_Bloom
Summary For those who are only interested in the bottom line, it doesn't matter what the charts are saying. Neither US equities nor US Treasuries represent sensible investments from a fundamental perspective. Investments should be in assets which offer protection against the demise of the US Dollar.
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Wednesday, January 02, 2008
United States Transfer of Sovereignty to Sovereign Wealth Funds / Economics / Sovereign Wealth Funds
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Mega Picture - Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWF's) are being hailed as the saviors of the financial world, but in reality are more akin to harbingers of the economic apocalypse for countries such as the United States and United Kingdom.
The SWF's have been stepping in of late with tens of billions in financing and investments into the cash starved US banking and finance sector with financial institutions such as Citicorp selling off large chunks every other week to funds such as that to the Abu Dhabi SWF at 4.9% of the company for $7.5bn on a fixed yield of 11%, the terms are far more favourable than offered to domestic investors. Most recent speculation is that
Rio Tinto maybe inline for a chinese SWF bid of as much as $150 billion.
Tuesday, January 01, 2008
Taxes, Money and Surpluses: Fact and Fiction / Economics / Austrailia
By: Gerard_Jackson
John Stone's somewhat harsh criticism of the Howard government's fiscal policy was fully justified. ( Mr Costello's repeated budget failure , National Observer No. 73 - Winter 2007). However, Stone's comments on government revenues and budget surpluses missed a very important question: what generated such huge government revenues and massive surpluses? There was a time when the answer would have been self-evident to any economist worth his salt.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 31, 2007
Memory Lane and President Bush's US Tax Suts / Economics / US Economy
By: Gerard_Jackson
As we enter the New Year I thought it appropriate to reflect on President Bush's tax cuts, the ones that the Democrats and their media flunkies screamed would wreck the US economy by generating an unsustainable deficit. It was easy — and still is — to spring to the conclusion that the Democrats' response was driven by opportunism and a deeply ingrained cynicism.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 28, 2007
Public Sector Pay to Cripple the UK Economy During 2008 / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The unproductive public sector renowned for demanding unrealistic pay hikes whilst at the same time failing to deliver competitiveness and anticipated output, looks set to go to war against Gordon Browns government during 2008. Which is already expected to be the worst year for jobs in a decade.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 28, 2007
Credit Crunch Time for American Consumers / Economics / Credit Crunch
By: Peter_Schiff
The subprime mortgage crisis is merely the tip of a very large iceberg. Beneath the surface lies not only a sea of tenuous loans to prime borrowers, but also an assortment of other liabilities backed by auto loans and credit card debit. Now that home equity extractions, "zero percent auto financing" and "zero interest" credit card rollovers are much harder to come by, Americans must do without the credit lifelines that have previously kept them afloat. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 24, 2007
UK Economy GDP Growth Forecast for 2008 - NO Recession / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The UK economy is being hit hard by the ongoing credit crunch with its sizable financial sector under strain and the UK housing market finally showing signs of the long anticipated downturn after one of the biggest bull runs in history. These and much other bad news will undoubtedly hit the UK economy hard during 2008, and in advance of this the media has finally turned decidedly bearish with much speculation of a recession during 2008.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 21, 2007
The Battle Between Inflation and Deflation - Money Supply to Decide Outcome / Economics / Money Supply
By: Peter_Schiff
Among those rational enough to perceive the looming economic downturn, a heated debate has arisen that centers on whether the slowdown will be accompanied by inflation or deflation.
Those in the deflation camp believe that money supply will collapse as a natural consequence of the implosion of the biggest credit bubble in U.S. history. As loans go bad, assets, which collateralize these loans, will be sold at fire sale prices to satisfy creditors. It is also argued that a recession will reduce consumer discretionary spending, causing retailers to slash prices to move their bloated inventories. This is the way the situation played out in the 1930's and this is how many expect it to happen today.
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Thursday, December 20, 2007
Global Inflation Surge Fueled by Explosive Money Supply Growth / Economics / Inflation
By: Gary_Dorsch
The worst is yet to come for the global banking system, which faces potential losses of more than half-trillion dollars from investments in toxic sub-prime US mortgage debt. “The problems in the financial sector remain with us,” said Bank of England chief Mervyn King on Nov 19 th . “A painful adjustment faces the global banking sector over the next few months as losses are revealed and new capital is raised to repair bank balance sheets,” he said.
To defuse the crisis, the Fed, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England are pumping enormous sums of money into the banking system, at below market interest rates, to prevent a “credit crunch” from triggering a global stock market meltdown. “Central banks are working together to forestall any sharp tightening in credit conditions that might lead to a downturn around the world,” King declared.
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Thursday, December 20, 2007
Public Losing Confidence in Official Inflation Statistics - Inflation Brainwashing Starting to Backfire / Economics / Inflation
By: Money_and_Markets
Larry Edelson writes:On at least three occasions over the last couple of years I warned you that inflation was already running at about 7%-10%.
It was a no-brainer. Like you, I experienced rising prices every time I went to the gas pump ... to the grocery store ... paid an insurance bill ... wrote a check for my kids' college tuition ... or bought new clothes.
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