Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Investing in the METAVERSE Stocks Universe - 8th Dec 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: I Expect 15-20% Returns For 2022 - 8th Dec 21
US Dollar Still Has the Green Light - 8th Dec 21
Stock Market Topping Process Roadmap - 8th Dec 21
The Lithium Breakthrough That Could Transform The Mining Industry - 8th Dec 21
VR and Gaming Becomes the Metaverse - 7th Dec 21
How to Read Your Smart Meter - Economy 7, Day and Night Rate Readings SMETS2 EDF - 7th Dec 21
For Profit or for Loss: 4 Tips for Selling ASX Shares - 7th Dec 21
INTEL Bargain Teck Stocks Trading at 15.5% Discount Sale - 7th Dec 21
US Bonds Yield Curve is not currently an inflationist’s friend - 7th Dec 21
Omicron COVID Variant-Possible Strong Stock Market INDU & TRAN Rally - 7th Dec 21
The New Tech That Could Take Tesla To $2 Trillion - 7th Dec 21
S&P 500 – Is a 5% Correction Enough? - 6th Dec 21
Global Stock Markets It’s Do-Or-Die Time - 6th Dec 21
Hawks Triumph, Doves Lose, Gold Bulls Cry! - 6th Dec 21
How Stock Investors Can Cash in on President Biden’s new Climate Plan - 6th Dec 21
The Lithium Tech That Could Send The EV Boom Into Overdrive - 6th Dec 21
How Stagflation Effects Stocks - 5th Dec 21
Bitcoin FLASH CRASH! Cryptos Blood Bath as Exchanges Run Stops, An Early Christmas Present for Some? - 5th Dec 21
TESCO Pre Omicron Panic Christmas Decorations Festive Shop 2021 - 5th Dec 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Into Mid 2022 - 4th Dec 21
INVESTING LESSON - Give your Portfolio Some Breathing Space - 4th Dec 21
Don’t Get Yourself Into a Bull Trap With Gold - 4th Dec 21
GOLD HAS LOTS OF POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE - 4th Dec 21
4 Tips To Help You Take Better Care Of Your Personal Finances- 4th Dec 21
What Is A Golden Cross Pattern In Trading? - 4th Dec 21
Bitcoin Price TRIGGER for Accumulating Into Alt Coins for 2022 Price Explosion - Part 2 - 3rd Dec 21
Stock Market Major Turning Point Taking Place - 3rd Dec 21
The Masters of the Universe and Gold - 3rd Dec 21
This simple Stock Market mindset shift could help you make millions - 3rd Dec 21
Will the Glasgow Summit (COP26) Affect Energy Prices? - 3rd Dec 21
Peloton 35% CRASH a Lesson of What Happens When One Over Pays for a Loss Making Growth Stock - 1st Dec 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: I Fear For Retirees For The Next 20 Years - 1st Dec 21 t
Will the Anointed Finanical Experts Get It Wrong Again? - 1st Dec 21
Main Differences Between the UK and Canadian Gaming Markets - 1st Dec 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Economic Stimulus Packages Overdosing Could Ignite Hyperinflation

Economics / Stagflation Feb 15, 2008 - 01:09 PM GMT

By: Peter_Schiff

Economics In perhaps one of biggest ironies to ever to come out of Washington, this week Congress simultaneously pilloried major league baseball players for using artificial stimulants to pump up their performance while passing legislation to do just that to the national economy. Am I the only one laughing?


In reality, the current slump in the U.S. economy is simply the come down from years of financial doping in the form of skyrocketing home values and easy credit. Rather than reaching for yet another syringe, Congress should ask Americans to do what it demands of ballplayers: play within their natural means. Unfortunately in the case of the economy, the patient is already so juiced up that further doses may not only fail to stimulate but may result in a trip to the emergency room.

As the widely praised “economic stimulus” bill was signed into law, the only dissent heard was from those saying the plan did not go far enough. Speaking for those unheard voices who disagree with the strategy entirely, I believe the most significant aspect of the plan is that it creates a new and improved method for delivering inflation.

Previously, the government has largely relied on interest rate stimulus to keep the economy humming. In this method, money supply growth, also known as inflation, is channeled through the banking system. The Fed makes cheap credit available to banks, which then lend out the new funds or use them to acquire higher yielding assets. As a result, asset prices, such as stocks, bonds and real estate, have been bid up to bubble levels. However, the inflationary impact on consumer prices occurs with a considerable lag.

Now that rate cuts alone are proving insufficient, mainly because banks are now so over-loaded with questionable collateral and shaky loans that few can consider acquiring more assets or extending additional credit (no matter how cheap such activities can be funded), the Government is opting for a more direct approach. By printing money and mailing it directly to the citizenry, the “stimulus plan” cuts out all of the financial middle men and administers the inflation drug directly to consumers.

If simply printing money could solve financial problems, the Fed could send $10 million to every citizen and we could all retire en masse to Barbados . However, more money chasing a given supply of goods simply pushes up prices and does nothing to improve underlying economics. Since this new money will go directly into consumer spending, without first being filtered thought asset markets, the effects on consumer prices will be far more immediate.

This politically inspired placebo will do nothing to cure what ails our economy. The additional consumer spending will merely exacerbate our imbalances, allow the underlying problems to worsen, and put additional upward pressure on both consumer prices and eventually long-term interest rates as well. The failure of the stimulus plan to cure the economy will cause the Government, and the Wall Street brain trust, to conclude that it was simply too small. Their next solution will be to administer an even stronger dose.

My prediction is that over the course of the next few years, successive doses of even larger stimulus packages will fail to revive the economy. As the recession worsens and the dollar drops through the floor and consumer prices and long–term interest rates shoot thought the roof, politicians and economists will look for scapegoats. Few, if any, will properly attribute the problems to the toxic effects of the stimulus itself.

However, like all drugs, the biggest danger is an overdose. In monetary terms an overdose is hyperinflation, which will surely kill our economy. It is my sincere hope that before we reach that “point of no return,” a correct diagnosis is finally made. When that occurs, the stimulants will be cut off, and the free market will finally be allowed to administer the only cure that works: recession. If that means we lose some speed on our fastball, so be it. Maybe we could use a few months in the minor leagues to get back to basics. While we may not like the economic side effects of stopping cold turkey, it sure beats carrying our money around in wheelbarrows!

For a more in depth analysis of the inherent dangers facing the U.S. economy and the implications for U.S. dollar denominated investments, read my new book “Crash Proof: How to Profit from the Coming Economic Collapse.” Click here to order a copy today.

By Peter Schiff
Euro Pacific Capital
http://www.europac.net/

More importantly make sure to protect your wealth and preserve your purchasing power before it's too late. Discover the best way to buy gold at www.goldyoucanfold.com , download my free research report on the powerful case for investing in foreign equities available at www.researchreportone.com , and subscribe to my free, on-line investment newsletter at http://www.europac.net/newsletter/newsletter.asp

Peter Schiff Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

morris olitsky
26 Feb 08, 08:47
stimulus package

Mr. Schiff has expressed my fears about this stimulus package precisely. I'm also worried about the effect on bond prices, having a bond portfolio. Is it fair to say that bonds look like a bad investment for the next year or two?


Keith
15 Dec 10, 18:42
How did those fears turn out?

Are you going to come back and man up to how poor your prediction was?


Poor prediction?
15 Dec 10, 22:43
JL

Hardly can anyone claim the economy has gotten better. We're heading for more and more QE. So Keith, I must ask, what predictions do you see as poor?


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in